Thai Stocks For Mid To Long Term Investors

[maipasathai]

Just back after a dinner with friends and more wine than necessary.

Good to see ExpatJ post in this thread. It’s the only active thread for Thai stock market so wish it can keep alive.

After 3 days in the red finally a day in the black but still with 1.8% DD from last equity high. Dumped BTS yesterday for a loss of 0.2R. It was the only laggard I in my portfolio and didn’t behave as a winner and furthermore it is often recommended as a buy from my broker so two good reasons to sell. The old saying is “Don’t worry about your winning trades, they take care of them selves but losing trades they don’t”.

Left with an empty slot (10 position max) gave me a free slot and the only thing that fitted with my entry rules was KGI (on my brokers sell list) so bought at 2.88 today and it closed at 3.16 today. It’s a roller coaster. Due to the high volatility just got a small position to keep it within risk profile.

CAGR at 98% after 70 trading days and I know it will go down but to where? But 40% of my portfolio is on the broker sell list so I will hold those as long as possible without taking a loss. The question now is how many are sitting out there with unrealized profits and itchy fingers to push the sell button and how many is there to pick up their sells. As for yesterday foreigners took it all. If they shouldn’t been there it could have been a free fall but it’s still named correction.

People are talking about correction but I don’t know what it is. If a correction is the same as a correct price and everybody know the correwct price, why did it go higher than the correct price? In my enclosed trading mind it’s just people who want to realize gains and when everything is settled the new holders that bought it has a bias that it will gain hence they came in stronger hands.

Don’t know if anyone else out there is trading with MM and RM? If so let me know cause I’m always eager to learn and share.

On a side note got a Metastock EOD last week so busy to make indicators and EA’s.

Will probably regret this post when I sober up tomorrow………

[ExpatJ]

I fancy abit of a high risk play so have identified a couple of stocks that:

a) have dropped in price in the last 52 weeks and are at the far bottom end of their band range according to the charts

b ) are low value/price

c) have a reasonable/good daily trading volumn (you dont want to buy a low cap penny stock only to find that nobody is actually trading them!)

The result.....

TWZ 0.6 baht !

MILL 2.6 baht

Ill sleep on it and see how i feel in the morning...maybe will put some money in both..

Edited October 5, 2010 by ExpatJ

[ExpatJ]

I fancy abit of a high risk play so have identified a couple of stocks that:

a) have dropped in price in the last 52 weeks and are at the far bottom end of their band range according to the charts

b ) are low value/price

c) have a reasonable/good daily trading volumn (you dont want to buy a low cap penny stock only to find that nobody is actually trading them!)

The result.....

TWZ 0.6 baht !

MILL 2.6 baht

Ill sleep on it and see how i feel in the morning...maybe will put some money in both..

OK- after a fairly good nights sleep and abit more research this morning.

I realized that there is another stock that also fits the profile meeting a) and c) above though only partially meeting b )- its DTAC. The price has just fallen alot because of the 3G fiasco so its at the lower band range in the charts. The daily trading volume is very large. And at 40 baht its a medium/low price stock . The other benefit of DTAC is that its earning are growing and expected to be good this year plus they may announce a biggish dividend payment because of the money no longer needed for 3G investment.

I did abit more research on MILL- they are issuing a lot of new shares next quarter and are actively encouraging foreign investors- thats not a good sign for price when the shares are issued. BUT it seems like the owning family have a solid plan for expanding the company which they announced in the last month and the charts look good plus there was a price increase yesterday.

So DTAC and MILL it is. I have @1.2 million baht for this after selling KBANK yesterday so ill put around 25% in MILL the rest in DTAC.

As an aside- the US markets did very well yesterday, the Asian markets opened strongly this morning and the BDI index also surged over night- looks like a good day on the SET around (fingers crossed)

Update: I have just seen that JP Morgan just announced this morning that DTAC is one of their new recommended buys.

Edited October 6, 2010 by ExpatJ

[ray23]

Since I'm primarily on the mai I saw some gains yesterday.

Over valued stocks I guess the best way to look at that would be a shark feeding frenzy. Everyone goes in for it's fill. If you know when to get out you will leave with a full tummy. Wait to long you have nothing, enter to late same result.

In stock it runs the costs higher then the true value of the business, enter then and you may or may not go your fill. My understanding is the best clue is the P/E ratio.

Abvak I'm getting good lesson's now slowly going down. As long a I stay in my limits, I will learn and not lose anything to dear. Really learning volumes thanks to you. I am now able to look at them a they are happening buys and sells. So you words were not waisted.

Me I have to wait till it's my turn again.

[humbug]

the set atmosphere has been very much subdued and will probably last the week due to rumours on capital controls and rumours on more controls on thai retail investors, now if it was just the capital controls i am sure the set would be having a better time of it today but the double whammy rumours by the set and bank of thailand in unison on monday dampened the market for this week, thats twice they have dampened the mood in weeks, so lets see if they try any rumours in the next few weeks once the market finds its feet again

[ray23]

Miapasathai when you moving?

Really haven't posted much this week actually been kind of confusing.

All the saber rattling this week on the baht held the market back can't say it helped a lot on the baht yet. I have to say they did some pretty drastic things the last time it at 29, We have a new BOT Governor so who knows.

Also Chinese New Years so their market just opened today. SET started up today and then fell. Through it all I managed to hold onto 35K profits. Still got 90K cash and haven't put in my monthly funds yet.

I actually got in some pretty good buys today bidding they didn't come through till the last fifteen minutes of the trading day. I was trying to position myself better for next week. Guess we will find out then won't we.

My new books came into today I had a ride planned but the back went south on me again. So I got some interesting reading anyway. The one I'm starting with is Technical's for Dummy's. I have completed five books on Value investing. I think I know as much a I need to know about that for now.

How did DTAC do this week? I was very tempted, Advanc looked like it did well for the week.

[maipasathai]

Miapasathai when you moving?

Really haven't posted much this week actually been kind of confusing.

All the saber rattling this week on the baht held the market back can't say it helped a lot on the baht yet. I have to say they did some pretty drastic things the last time it at 29, We have a new BOT Governor so who knows.

Also Chinese New Years so their market just opened today. SET started up today and then fell. Through it all I managed to hold onto 35K profits. Still got 90K cash and haven't put in my monthly funds yet.

I actually got in some pretty good buys today bidding they didn't come through till the last fifteen minutes of the trading day. I was trying to position myself better for next week. Guess we will find out then won't we.

My new books came into today I had a ride planned but the back went south on me again. So I got some interesting reading anyway. The one I'm starting with is Technical's for Dummy's. I have completed five books on Value investing. I think I know as much a I need to know about that for now.

How did DTAC do this week? I was very tempted, Advanc looked like it did well for the week.

Hi Ray,

Moving probably next year, need renovating and looking for skilled people to do the job. Maybe we can meet up and do a house inspection this weekend?

Down 1% for the week and down 3.3% from last equity high. Just playing the defence game at the moment and my trailing stops should keep me in the black. After swapping BTS for KGI got some more cash. In markets like this it is nice to be technical trader with risk management as the first rule. Just trade the plan.

[ray23]

If this is the gain on the exchange rate, The baht’s 11 percent gain this year. I don't how much the inflation lets say 4%. I need to be above a 16% return to make money. That includes the banks whopping 1% interest. I think I'm there at the moment.

So I would think anything above that 16% is a true profit. Any less and since the money comes from the states I' m in reverse. Of course every little bit helps. Hard to believe I'm seven months into this now. Studying my sixth book. Lots WBU education.

[ray23]

QUESTION??????????????????

Tomorrow a new IPO is coming out.

How do you play these or do you?

Purchase at the open.?

Wait a few hours and see where it's going?

I've never done this before. But, it seems t me that as the kid on the block they get a lot of attention at least at first. So I'm giving some thought to jumping in at the open.

Very little information out on it, so not hardly value stock at the moment. So I'm thinking in terms of long term hold yet. It is construction of power grids to include solar of course. Now I really understand Humbugs comment everybody and his little brother (must be the government money) is trying to become a solar company. That aspect I believe is overloaded since it only to make up 20% of the grid.

I'm entertaining as it encompasses all aspects of the power grid.

I would really like to hear from others who have experience in new IPO's it is supposed to be in a trading range of 5.10 to 5.40.

The company has about them years of experience prior to its listing, no financials available yet that I can find

[humbug]

UAC ipo is it an ipo price of 4 baht a share?, then the rollercoaster ride of the first few days opening will probably duplicate a casino run, honestly it could do just about anything, from skyrocketing upwards for 3 days or opening at 6 baht then falling for 3 days, really its anyones guess, you would have thought it has some sexy stories behind it as its attached to the big petrochemical companies in its business dealings, and with the positive comments by korn this weekend , then maybe next week will be better all round than last weeks negative sentiment, if you going to play that UAC stock then good luck

Anyway for me this coming week i will be looking at UAC to see if it opens in a lackluster way to see if its worth putting a few rubbles into it, also mint-w4 as it dropped quite severley but the underlying equity mint is quite strong and looking at tvo as soybeans crop output in the us has dropped quite considerably along with some of the derrivs but staying on the sidelines as some derrivs may fall even further as alot of thai retail investors got spooked last monday with the set presidents remarks on maybe looking at more controls on thai retail investors, so looking forward to this week and just waiting in the wings to pounce and hopefully no more negative comments by the set to spook investors but then we have the spectre of fear mongering by the millitary of attacks which could be staged managed or not but still there will be a slight overhang regarding this over the next couple of weeks

Edited October 10, 2010 by humbug

[ray23]

No, I'm going to set it out and just follow it, see how things flow. It seems t be the same business class as UKEM, which is at .83 this morning. Something very wrong with that picture.

Seem to be several new IPO'S this month, the one I was looking at has today to 13Th as listing date.

Reading Technical analysis for Dummies, just doing the initial read through now and my head is spinning. When that's done I will go back and really study chapter to chapter. The book call for a lot of drawing of charts. I have the charts on line that they speak of through my broker. So for me it probably going to be reading and understanding the charts I already have.

If you a newbie like me I would add it to my reading list including value investing. I thin based it's definition I'm leaning more being a trader then an investor. That being said really to early for me call that one.

[ExpatJ]

No, I'm going to set it out and just follow it, see how things flow. It seems t be the same business class as UKEM, which is at .83 this morning. Something very wrong with that picture.

Seem to be several new IPO'S this month, the one I was looking at has today to 13Th as listing date.

Reading Technical analysis for Dummies, just doing the initial read through now and my head is spinning. When that's done I will go back and really study chapter to chapter. The book call for a lot of drawing of charts. I have the charts on line that they speak of through my broker. So for me it probably going to be reading and understanding the charts I already have.

If you a newbie like me I would add it to my reading list including value investing. I thin based it's definition I'm leaning more being a trader then an investor. That being said really to early for me call that one.

Coincidence- i just bought technical analysis for dummies this weekend to build up my own knowledge in this area!

[ray23]

I think you have to put a little effort into ti. But, I think it's good to know.

I also picked up the one on candle sticks that's next. I have them Asiaplus

[humbug]

ukem if i remember had a share split and change of par value a while back hence the low satangs per share, also it issued warrants which for some small caps keeps the share price down

[ray23]

Thanks good to know.

[ExpatJ]

SET is going up nicely today- lets hope it keeps going this afternoon.

Other good news today. In 2008 i bought into a BRIC mutual fund with HSBC- terrible timing as it dropped 35% during the financial crisis last year....but i just checked it again today and noticed that its up 4% i.e. 4% above my original buying price. So good to see its finally, finally in the black.

[ray23]

I low balled a few today that are long term, only got one so far. There in the Mai so I may get them yet.

I did watch UAC today, it opened at 4.90 jumped to 5.50 in about twenty mins. If you had sold at that pint you would put a few satang in your pocket. If that normal the safe thing go on the on the open at 50 satang and set the a sale.

Staying in the 5.15 to 5.20 range now. Huge amount of volume going both ways. I start watching a few more jsut to learn as they come out.

Edited October 11, 2010 by ray23

[ray23]

Well it closed at 5.70 now to see if it holds

[maipasathai]

Down 0.2% today. With 25% of the equity in CPALL it's an anchor chain around the neck at the moment but still it's a gainer with R-value of +4.8. Hard trailing stop at 29.25 at the moment and if so it will be closed in the black. Everything now depending on market sentiment.

Down 1.9% from Equity High But still with a CAGR at 88% (keep on dreaming...)

[ray23]

My gut tells me things will loosen up today. Now that we are past baht, non event.

They gave out a bone but, no meat.

[ExpatJ]

Overall up today. My telcom stocks all up nicely (but its risky having stocks in AIS, DTAC and TRUE all at the same time- but im hoping they divert their 3G money into higher dividend payments- at least AIS is expected to..!!).

[ray23]

Best day I have had in a long time.

[ray23]

Expatj When you finish the tech dummy book, really recommend you follow up with the Candlesticks for dummies. Makes charting so much easier, and you have the back up two indicators or more on a decision.

This is a good one for newbies as well Explains terminology heavy in the first part of the book. Expat you can just skip that part.

Good today if it doesn't hit a 1000 it will have sure scared the heck out of it

[ExpatJ]

Expatj When you finish the tech dummy book, really recommend you follow up with the Candlesticks for dummies. Makes charting so much easier, and you have the back up two indicators or more on a decision.

This is a good one for newbies as well Explains terminology heavy in the first part of the book. Expat you can just skip that part.

Good today if it doesn't hit a 1000 it will have sure scared the heck out of it

I just saw on bloomberg that today is the best day for Asian stock markets in 2 years. My portfolio is up slightly today, but no big jumps- im hoping/expecting for bigger increase before the market closes today given the big increases in stocks elsewhere in Asia.

Edited October 14, 2010 by ExpatJ

[ray23]

I really haven't said much this week, not so sure I understood it. A stock listed Monday UAC really lots of other companies around who do the same things with track records you can trace. It gained a 137% in three days, slowly going back to reality now. Now folks that is gambling But one thing I have noticed Thai's really seem to like that aspect of life.

Another one listing Monday really thinking about giving it a try, if I do it's because I'm betting on the Thai's not the stock. I would imagine they have a pocket full of change after the last one. If I do I will post the results good or bad, in the interest of keeping this in reality. The n money ha been set aside the discussion with the boss is done.

I have closely watched what happened with UAC, at times it showed gains at others it showed losses. It's real value is 4.90 eventually I assume it will actually go to that point. Remember this is gambling not investing. I understand that adn my goal along with making a few baht is to keep losses in reason I will sit a stop loss at 30% since that seems to be where the last one fluctuated to. By the way I'm only buying 5K shares so I'm not betting the farm on it.

This has actually turned into a very good way to force myself to save, the portfolio is at 417K these days. I seem to run a consistent profit between 40 and 45 K. I have three solid consistent stocks. Two that are waiting to move. I have met my original goal of beating the savings rate on the banks. But, I haven't reached that 16% yet So Im; not running at a true profit. Bur, I have pretty good offset going.

All the noise about foreign funds and the baht I believe really kept the market subdued this week. It ended with a 15% tax on foreigners investing in bonds. The next thing I see where are all the bond foreign bond investor's going, the weer net sellers the next day. Answer they went to the SET and it's been tickling the 1000 mark ever since.

Now I am getting nervous waiting for the other shoe to drop. I would say this if that happens convert over to small caps quickly. When the set takes a hit the play goes to the Mai and that's where the small caps are. By the way that is where I made money when there was blood on the streets. It's largely ignored now. But,, that can change quickly. The three that I hold are right on the edge of being mid caps. The two that hold like that are industrials with a three year backlog of work. The other is TNH a hospital it has stayed b nice and level even when the market is a yoyo and pays a .43 dividend per share in December. Not bad for a stock a I bought under 6 baht

So what I have on the books right now I'm confident of. I maintain a watch list on others, at the moment they are non performers. I have learned a smidgen of charting now, so if nothing else I get practice doing that. The advantage there with value stocks is knowing when to get out with profits.

I have also made friends that also invest and we a share information on trends, the talk on the SET from locals Ect.

I'm going to include the books I have read since I started:

The Neatest Little guide to Stock Investing by Jason Kelly (this one is probably a good place to start)

Your investment guide to Thailand by Bruce Bickerstaff

(this one is really geared more to a newbie in Thailand then investing, But if your new to Thailand a good read)

Value investing by Greenwald (good information on investing and easy to read)

Getting Started in Value Investing, by by Charles S. Mizrahi (good information on investing and easy to read)

Intelligent Investing by Graham

( All these books refer to Graham so go to the source, it is very difficult to read, maybe in a couple of years I will actually be able to understand it.

Technical Analysis for Dummies by Brabara Rockefeller

(this one was tough for me, numbers are just not my thing. But worth it to me as I learned more about reading charts to understand trends, I have to tell you I really had to struggle with these last two)

Candle Stick Charting For Dummies by Russel Rhoads

( this is the easiest fro me to understand your looking for patterns not numbers)

That being said I would read the other books first, it takes time to learn I have made tons of n mistakes, Being to active in trades for example violating my own rules. Getting emotion and gut feelings out of the equation, that is difficult.

The Little Book That beats The Market by Joel Greenblatt ( I haven't read this one yet, but I did watch an interview on CNBC with Greenblatt)

You ready or this his methods are right 60% of the time. Now here is the truth you will loose in investing that' why you sir rule kick yourself when you violate them an you will. That is why you l hold more the one company. to win on 60%, walk away when your stop loss is hit or you've earned to the level you establish for profit.

Along with all this I have gotten excellent feed back from experienced investors. with the three threads going in different forums.

I started with a very simple concept I join a stock club and do as directed. But guess what a stock club isn't going to tell you what to buy and for how much, how many shares to buy and they are not going to be 100% right on their picks either. However having their insight and research is worth every baht.

It's like the stock Monday I know the risk I'm taking, get scary when that happens. I wouldn't bet on that stock in a million years, I will bet on the Thai's

So anyway next week I will let you know what happened next week. I have to study UAC some more t and try to find the trend in a very short period with not much research available.

I will say this if you really want to do this be prepared to put some work in to get that 60%

[ExpatJ]

Im feeling more bullish about the SET than i did . So much foreign money is pouring into emerging markets right now and this will only increase with the new round of quatitative easing in the US.

Ray- is next weeks IPO you are referring to NINE? I might give it a go as well .

[ExpatJ]

Also, i highly recommend putting some money into a China or BRIC mutual fund right now and aim to sell in 2-6 months. Ditto Gold.

[ray23]

You know I watched Bernakie's speech last night, in the end he really didn't commit to anything, worried more about deflation then anything else. He said the FED would react to need's arise. Painted a very bleak picture. So I'm not really sure what he is saying.

In watching CNBC with my morning coffee ran into a surprise percentage wise this year Silver has out placed Gold. If I had the slightest idea how to get in that on the SET I might give that a shot. lot less money involved in the purchase of that. Lower purchase price higher return. 60% of the metal is use for industrial use, computers ECT

[humbug]

uac last week jumped as any price movement is what people are willing to buy and sell within the boundries of the regulations of the exchange which is what happened with the uac stock, it never breached any rules or regulations,

the problem is the sell off wasnt due to reality check by investors but by the SET once again making negative statements against thai retail investors saying they are looking into the price movements of uac, well this is the second time in 2 weeks the SET has come out against thai retail investors .

the SET is seen as a political vehicle for the facisits in power, they and the SET view large returns by thai retail investors as a threat since the coup in 2006 those in power feel some of this money will trickle into opposition hands, now this has been the same in russia and china, but essentially even in china ipos can go up 10 fold, its just that the SET is starting to make the same waves it made in 2007 after all the other negative events at that period and then after the market was calm the SET came out with a number of ways to curtail the enthusiasm of thai retail investors which caused a huge reduction in volumes by thai retail investors for a number of months

so for the rest of this year and 2011 this is something to keep an eye out for because the volumes on mai and small caps and mid-caps are mostly from thai retail investors, and in no way do i think its game changing just something more to add to the melting pot going forward

i thought the ipo next week was gungkal or gunkol, something to do with renewable energy at an ipo price of 5.40, interesting to see if it follows the uac stock price of doubling in 4 days or if its held back by worries of more controls by the SET

Edited October 16, 2010 by humbug

[ray23]

Sorry my fault on the mix up. Sage advice going forward. Kook Korn has a back ground in trading if he is taken out of the position things may change drastically.

So I believe things may get restrictive in the future as well. I wish I had a magic ball, that would tell me when to go to cash. To wait things out a bit.