Thai Stocks For Mid To Long Term Investors

[thaibutty]

Well they canceled the 3-G auction and now there is an appeal in progress to have it. I got in early enough that I didn't get hurt to bad and still at a profit. I got some time under my belt now and I will regroup. But, this didn't help investors confidence for sure. This issues should have been resolved long before the auction was sit. So there were investors hurt by this that is what they will remember.

I think I will wait until after Monday and the big baht meeting

I was too late this morning. When I found the time to check my Advanc stocks already dropped below my purchasing price of 91.7. Well, as Advanc still has good fundamentals I will just hold on for a while. I guess that around 100 should still be a fair price.

[ray23]

It's interesting a lot of money n must have been tied up in those stocks. When I ran my watch list today lots of buy signs. I bid what I wanted and have got several.

But, I took a hit.

People are still buying, the three stocks

Oh well part of it.

[ray23]

It's interesting a lot of money n must have been tied up in those stocks. When I ran my watch list today lots of buy signs. I bid what I wanted and have got several.

But, I took a hit.

People are still buying, the three stocks

Oh well part of it.

[ExpatJ]

Well they canceled the 3-G auction and now there is an appeal in progress to have it. I got in early enough that I didn't get hurt to bad and still at a profit. I got some time under my belt now and I will regroup. But, this didn't help investors confidence for sure. This issues should have been resolved long before the auction was sit. So there were investors hurt by this that is what they will remember.

I think I will wait until after Monday and the big baht meeting

I agree that this will adversely impact investors- really is a shambles. I understand that there is a chance courts findings may be overturned this evening- so that would be the best outcome..

[ray23]

Stocks 101 and WBU (Water Buffalo University) courts come in get out

Profits 48773

loss of profits 27,180

[Abrak]

Really it is all sorts of some sort of blah.... imho....

3.9G auctions - if it was a real auction - it would make no difference to the share price as the auction cost would match the opportunity cost. True cant even afford the bid price let alone the cost of implementation. It is simply hoping for a quick draw followed by a quick acquisition. The company has never paid a dividend, never made a profit (apart from buying back its defaulted debt at a discount.)

So before anyone gangs together and complains on behalf of investors at least appreciate that True shareholders have never done a deal in their lives that hasnt benefitted the majority shareholders first at the expense of the minority shareholders. If you dont believe me simply ask their equipment suppliers or their bankers from KFW downwards.

[ray23]

Thanks that's a good thing to know. The banks are complaining about thee future interest they lost on this deal. The companies had arranged financing prior to the bid, So no loan now.

Certainly an interesting lesson. TOT filed today as well.

F/M's complaining because it makes Thailand look bad to outside investors. Of course on the bright side may have solved the baht problem with incoming funds. Actually the market didn't change much through the day, then what it has been doing.

Hey risk goes with the territory and you ain't going win them all

I read your investing guide to Thailand today, good for the beginner I would recommend reading it with The neatest Little Guide to stock Market investing. They are both basic books easy to read and understand.

One thing I liked about the investment guide is it gives you a ton of sites to check for different things, that you may have to deal with in fist coming here and in investing. As Bruce says it is not meant for the seasoned investor. Newbies good book

Edited September 17, 2010 by ray23

[Abrak]

Thanks that's a good thing to know. The banks are complaining about thee future interest they lost on this deal. The companies had arranged financing prior to the bid, So no loan now.

Certainly an interesting lesson. TOT filed today as well.

F/M's complaining because it makes Thailand look bad to outside investors. Of course on the bright side may have solved the baht problem with incoming funds. Actually the market didn't change much through the day, then what it has been doing.

Hey risk goes with the territory and you ain't going win them all

As you say 'risk' goes with any investment. True might be a good punt or whatever. There is no point in getting it confused with the real world.

Actually most people who have taken a punt on True in the last 4 months have made good money even after todays volatility.

When True was first floated, its IPO was Bt55, its first day closing price was Bt196.

But it really has never made a profit, is in default of its debts, does relax the rules between independent transactions and corporate responsibility and should have been delisted many moons ago. Punting on their share price is fine but the idea of an 'investor' group supporting their interests is totally ridiculous.

And investors should realize that CP never even paid the Bt10 par value for this company - they paid Bt2.5 and then got others to pay the balance. Shareholders should also realize why equipment costs are at least 50% over normal prices for the company and french and german development banks should realize why they have been screwed in order to secure equipment orders for the likes of Siemens or Alcatel.

[ray23]

I wasn't looking at it or AIS beyond this auction. I had two that would get one license had it went through.

It went wrong when CAT didn't get their piece of the pie. Everything that the court ruled on should have been completed before they auction was set. That is what gives Thailand a black eye.

TOT jumped aboard today as well why not that go a winning team for awhile. Not my first day here so no real surprise that this could happen. I'll take my lumps and move on. Tomorrows a new day the rest of my portfolio did just fine today. The difference on my play with True and the others, theirs worked mine didn't

Now this is coming up again

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/2010/09/17/national/New-problems-ready-to-bubble-up-30138128.html

So if courts are involved best to stay out of it.

Edited September 17, 2010 by ray23

[ray23]

Can you believe this?

Now what makes things even more interesting is CNBS is running special's in Thailand nest week. I bet the have field day with this one.

Keeping in mind that TOT has also filed, if the court allows the auction, with an announcement at 0830, is there a play there I speaking of day trading I would consider Advanc as a mid term investment.

Speaking of TRUE again it took the hardest hit so at the opening the cheapest my guess with heavy trade through the auction.

Comments please ?

By Usanee Mongkolporn

The Nation

Published on September 18, 2010

Court to rule on NTC appeal against injunction on Monday

The telecom industry will remain in suspense for two more days after the Supreme Administrative Court announced last night that its verdict on the appeal against the 3G auction injunction will be handed down on Monday morning.

The National Telecommunications Commission, meanwhile, appeared ready to postpone the bidding process to Tuesday if the injunction is overturned. In a brief statement issued at 11pm, the Supreme Administrative Court only said that the verdict on NTC's appeal against the injunction would be announced at 8.30am on Monday. There was no mention of whether a verdict had been reached.

The NTC had claimed in its appeal to the Supreme Administrative Court that it had the authority to hold the 3G licence auction. It said if the country waited for the formation of the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) as ruled on Thursday by the lower Administrative Court, a bidding would happen only in the next 3-4 years.

"If the NBTC has to start the licensing process anew, this could take at least three to four years, while the telecom service needs to be developed continuously for the public benefit and enable the consumers to access 3G service," it said.

Information and Communications Technology Minister Chuti Krairiksh said he believes the process of appointing NBTC commissioners could be started next year.

The Senate has already passed the NBTC bill and submitted to the House of Representatives with 23 amendments. Both Houses are expected to set up the joint committee to vet the bill soon.

Chuti said the joint committee is expected to finish deliberations on the bill in November, and bidding could follow after that.

On the draft Frequency Allocation Act, which specifies the framework of the NBTC, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said a joint committee would be set up to balance the House and Senate suggestions. He promised to have government representatives in the joint committee to quickly address any differences.

Regarding the court petitions by CAT Telecom and TOT, he said it was within their legal rights to protect the agencies' interests, even though the action opposes the government's policy.

While admitting the negative consequences of the court's injunction on Thursday, he insisted the government had done its part in making the bid happen but for a legal complication.

"We raised the issue of authority with the NTC during a reporting session early this year, but it decided to proceed with confidence in its legal authority," he said.

He added that this fiasco would not have happened but for a specific clause in the Constitution. He reiterated his frustration that when constitutional conflicts occur there is no agency, except the Constitution Court, to give a final ruling. However, the court is not a legal counsel. The ruling would come only when something happens.

"If the Supreme Administrative Court allows the bid to proceed as planned, the problem is over. But if it rules otherwise, the government will ensure the speedy enforcement of the new law," he told reporters.

Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said it is better that the auction is delayed if there is still doubt about the NTC's licensing authority. If the auction goes ahead, it could lead to bigger problems later.

The Central Administrative Court on Thursday issued an injunction against the NTC's planned licence auction, which is scheduled for Monday, ruling the auction could affect the work of the NBTC as claimed by petitioner CAT Telecom.

Meanwhile, TOT has also argued the same reasons in its plea for an injunction, filed in the same court yesterday.

In the afternoon yesterday, NTC lodged an appeal with the Supreme Administrative Court, making a case for the licence bidding to proceed, or it would cause damage.

NTC commissioner Natee Sukonrat said the petition is not for benefiting any particular organisation. The 3G wireless broadband technology would bring broadband Internet access to 80 per cent of the population within four years.

In its appeal, the NTC said its 3G licence auction will not affect the work of the NBTC. On the contrary, the NBTC can follow up the NTC's licensing process and regulations when it gets off the ground. If the NBTC has to start the licensing process anew, this could take at least three to four years, while the telecom service needed to be developed continuously for the public benefit and enable the consumers to access 3G service.

The NTC said it will take time for the NBTC bill to become law, and for appointment of the NBTC commissioners subsequently.

The NTC appealed that the injunction has affected its duty to grant the 3G licences and industry regulation under the Frequency Allocation Act of 2000, which will create a void in the industry.

The NTC also views that though Section 47 (2) of the 2007 Constitution mandates the formation of the NBTC, Section 305 (1) of the Constitution states that Section 47 (2) will not be enforced until the NBTC law comes into force.

Given that the NBTC bill is pending vetting, the NTC views that this means Section 47 (2) has yet to come into force, and therefore the NTC's duty under the Frequency Allocation Act of 2000 does not contradict Section 47 (2). The NTC argued it can continue to carry out the duties under the Frequency Allocation Act of 2000 until the NBTC comes into force.

The CAT petition before the Central Administrative Court had argued that the NTC's 3G licensing regulations and auction are unlawful as it has no authority to do so.

CAT cited that with the abrogation of the 1997 constitution following the 2006 coup, the 2000 Frequency Allocation Act that empowered the NTC was also annulled. The 2007 Constitution mandates the creation of a new and single regulatory body to oversee both broadcasting and telecom industry and the NBTC law be passed within 180 days after the announcement of government policy in Parliament.

CAT asked the court to terminate the NTC licensing regulations and suspend the auction plan.

Do you like this story?

[ray23]

This seems to have far reaching effect. Makes one wonder how it could have gotten this far.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/2010/09/18/business/Bankers-fret-over-delay-in-3G-bidding-30138230.html

[ray23]

CNBC Coverage Thailand next week.

20-24 September (Mon-Fri)

CNBC's flagship program Squawk Box goes on-the-road and broadcasts LIVE from Bangkok. The team will talk to the big movers and shakers to find out how the economy is recovering from the political violence that shook the nation this year.

The Squawk Box Asia team will be joined by the Squawk Box Europe team for the whole week. Don't miss this special coverage from 6am - 9am Sin/HK time.

[ray23]

this week, they are on auto pilot I will let them simmer and see what really breaks out.

At first I thought people were buying back into the 3-G mess, as Advanc (AIS) gained value. Upon closer examination both TRUE and DTAC fell. ADVANC is below it value auction or no auction. So I will try get some shares tomorrow. I hoping a few fall out tomorrow. I gave up on the auction lesson learned. But I like value stocks.

OK time for the tell of the tape

Profit is at 46926 That represents 1847 baht down.

That's not surprising the shares I purchased today have not have had time to work yet. I don't expect much change until next week. The stocks I added today have been on the watch list for six months so not just throwing darts.

Kelive says foreigners were net sellers today, fall out from the 3-G auction?

Or just a slow week don't know

[humbug]

i dont know about the other telco stocks, but advanc is looking a wee bit stronger due to the fact if nothing is passed this year on 3g then they will pay a special dividend

[humbug]

the set took such a batterring last week with 2 days of crazy rumours and then friday for telcos, it relly feels subdued, even a few brokers were saying the small caps will take over again to be markets leaders, well lets see, because even that looks unlikly for the time being with the atmosphere hanging over the set, i do hope the next few days it can brush away this flat postion

[ray23]

Spoke to my broker today, a rare experience since she speaks very little English and my Thai isn't sufficient for business conversations. She said the technical show not to buy advanc until it falls under 90.

Yesterday was something to see all of sudden my Watch list woke up, now if it holds who knows.

Kelive says foriegn buyers have been net sellers since the 3-G fiasco. I now see that Koon Korn has is entertaining giving the 3-G process to CAT and TOT and a auction won't be necessary. Sound like Government competing with Private enterprise and that could be the real story, who knows.

I believe with all the Asian holiday we are probably looking a slow week.

So far CNBC has been handling the interviews with silk cloves.

Watch Obama's special last night, might as well have went to sleep nothing was said of substance just a campaign opportunity.

[ExpatJ]

Much better start to the day today. AIS/True both up abit. I took a gamble and bought into TRUE yesterday after the 25% drop last week....

[ray23]

90 satang not bad for one day. I'm gun shy of day trading now.

Dtac is moving as welll 50 satang since yesterday

Advanc 75 satang

[ray23]

Sets at 934.

Kelive called for lower trading volume sure feels like it in mine anyway. They are saying foreigners are net buyers today

[ExpatJ]

A good day today -up 63,000 baht since this morning-, but overall portfolio is -0.7% dragged down by my TTA stock which is -4% since i bought last month (it was up 50,000 baht at one point in the week i bought it, but i got greedy and waited for further increases- only to see it drop quickly!).

My BANPU stock is up 6.5% and i'm thinking of selling to take the profit tomorrow.

Overall i sense an increased jittery-ness fueled by uncertainty in the global and thai markets so i'm leaning towards cashing out and taking profits earlier than otherwise in the coming weeks and adopt a wait and see approach. 'Best case' situation to be cashed up then have a big market drop/mini-crash and buy in just after that point

[ray23]

SET finished at 937.21

Got some profits back today I'm at 51,831 (since I started) now that's the direction I like

[maipasathai]

What a day!

9 stocks avvanced and 1 unchanged. New equity high. No signs of sell offs at the close so maybe we are heading north again.

[ExpatJ]

Looks like another good day so far. The news about BANPU's investment in Australia today has helped push its price up - i was lucky enough to buy shares in banpu last month (lucky because i wasnt aware of this deal at all!). Unfortuantely i only got 1,000 shares (its an expensive stock at 600 baht++ per share!!)

[humbug]

great last couple days, i also just sold banpu but banp13cb the derivitave warrant, i have left ptt13cc till the morning as it may move a little further early on, shame that its really only a bluechip rally, many mid caps and small caps are just drifting

trying to get my head around the ivl movement prices for the new negative derivitave ivl01pa as ivl stock price declines the warrant increases, so maybe if they are any corrections i can switch into this stock, bit of a trial for the set this type of stock, i dont know if they ever had a negative derivative on the set before and certainly a trial run for me

[ray23]

Yep I dropped another 1600 today, not worried about it my turn will come again. The ones that have been consistent in the black are TTCL, TTW, and TNH. They are keeping me afloat at the moment.

I'm still 50K ahead not bad considering all the mistakes I have made.

Any thoughts on the condo market, we headed for a bubble?

My guess is the MAI is just ignored.

Edited September 22, 2010 by ray23

[maipasathai]

My humble opinion today,

167 gained today but 174 went south. Set up +0.83%. It was the day of the large caps. Will it continue...

Have a few stocks hammering on a resistans line. TCAP at 40, CPALL at 40 and CPF at 25. Anyone else with the same experience that round numbers are hard lines but once broken they usually run of to the next round number?

In all a good day and ended up 0.91% with a new equity high just with sitting on my hands. I know people are making money from day trading but it's not for me. A round is 0.15% in courtage at entry and the same at the exit so in all 0.3%/day. With 250 trading days a year it's 0.3% x 250 = 75% per year. I should be happy just to have the courtage.

It's good we are all different because if not there shouldn't be any market. If everybody agreed the right price was xxx nobody should put in any order when xxx was reached.

Just my 2c

[ExpatJ]

Yep I dropped another 1600 today, not worried about it my turn will come again. The ones that have been consistent in the black are TTCL, TTW, and TNH. They are keeping me afloat at the moment.

I'm still 50K ahead not bad considering all the mistakes I have made.

Any thoughts on the condo market, we headed for a bubble?

My guess is the MAI is just ignored.

Re: condo market- i think they are overvalued somewhat but not a bubble i.e. prices will stay the same or rise slowly- the key buyers are rich thai and wealthy expats and its unlikely that either group would need to sell their condos urgently to raise cash- most can comfortably buy and keep an empty condo for months/year (s) while waiting for a tenant/buyer.

Two years ago i came up with a plan to buy 5-6 condos for let/rent in asia by the time i was 55- saving all the rental income and buying a new one every 3 years or so- the goal was to have 8-10 K US$ rental income per month by age 55. Unfortunately the economic crisis and decrease of expats in asia have slowed this plan down, plus the good returns i am having on the SET also mean that im earning more there than through putting money in condos and getting rental income. I have one condo in jakarta that earned a healthy 9% return in rental income in the last 2 years, but the japanese tenants just moved out so am looking for new ones (if any one is interested, let me know:-) )

[maipasathai]

Jakarta not my cup of tea but Surabaya, had a lot of good times there. Izn't it so that if yoy buy a new, not second hand, condo in Thailand for 3M Bath you can have an intvestment visa in Thailand?

Let's keep this on track and stay on the stock market but seems as you know your stuff so grateful if you can have your input.

[ExpatJ]

Jakarta not my cup of tea but Surabaya, had a lot of good times there. Izn't it so that if yoy buy a new, not second hand, condo in Thailand for 3M Bath you can have an intvestment visa in Thailand?

Let's keep this on track and stay on the stock market but seems as you know your stuff so grateful if you can have your input.

I havent heard that 3m baht condo purchase buys you an investment visa...but very nice if true.

[maipasathai]

Think they have it at Sunbelt Asia. Let's try to not make this a visa forum it may be moved

Forecast for tomorrow on the stock merket: Turbulent, but big caps will hold up. Just wish I was sure about it myself....