Thai Stocks For Mid To Long Term Investors

[ray23]

That is because it's confusing to me.

Now that the shock has worn off not much to do till December. The 30Th was qualifying date August 10 the is the issue date.

I have to give to Paul he explained everything to the member is advance or I would have choked yesterday.

There is a long ways to December, lots of time for things to settle down and get a clearer picture of the proper action. All options Are open now depends how the market goes.

It's comforting to know that I can sell and bring the 100K back in anytime I want. That is way beyond my original plan, But right now sit and wait.

In looking at Kelive foreigner investors have been coming back in heavy for the past week.

Now how long are they going to stay this time that's anyone's guess. I look at as all it takes is the wrong guys to sneeze and they will run to the dollar again. In watching the other markets they are not great but not as bad as they were. I.E. very slow GDP growth, that seems to me to be expected with what we are going through,

In listening to some of the comments it seems to me that investors were spoiled with the returns they saw and have forgotten they were not real in the first place. That tells me as usual we will be in a recession again within ten years.

If I'm still around I will buy that Gold when it's cheap again

Your explanation was much better them mine, thanks

[wordchild]

your above post ray is a little confusing so i will try and make it more confusing

if you have warrants then when they are issued on the market, i havnt seen demco's latest warrants yet, then the first few weeks of trading always offer good volumes and specualtion, especially on the first day of trade, the key here is to decide whether to sell the warrants at a high price and buy back later when people no longer view the new demco warrants as the latest fashion craze, if the exercise price is 2.70 and the equity price is 4.80 then maybe on the first day the warrants might hit 3-3.50 a share and then over the coming week might settle at around 2.50-2.80 a warrant, warrants are good for specualtion, if you think the equity has a chance to break again the 5 baht barrier and move up towards 6 and 7 baht, then hold on to the warrants because their worth will become 5-5.50 baht a warrant on the set, but because this is your said advisors recomendation, then better ask what price targets they have for demco over the next 12 months, if your advisors feel the demco price will move to 6-7 baht then keep the warrants, but if your advisors feel that the demco is stuck at these prices of 4-5 baht then look to sell the warrants

That is good advice i think. In my experience local investors (incl insiders ) often end up selling their warrant position during the first year or so after issue. They regard it as a kind of special dividend. So often the warrant will trade lower a few months after issue. I have seen a number of situations (in under researched stocks) where the warrant has ended up trading at a conversion discount to the ordinary shares! I recall one stock in particular where it was possible after a few months to buy into the ords at an incredible 20% discount through the warrant. Also fwiw, I feel local investors and brokers/advisors and even sophisticated managements seem to struggle to get their heads around the potential long-term negatives of such an issue; ie the dilution effects of issueing equity when the company (in some cases) doest really need it.

Edited July 31, 2010 by wordchild

[ray23]

The company was researched very well by Paul at Thaistocks, not by me I don't have the capabilities he does.

He has not locked up any option yet, the recommendation may end to be sale. In any event can't exercise the warrant's till Decemeber so a good time frame for a look see and it might very well end up being that.

[wordchild]

The company was researched very well by Paul at Thaistocks, not by me I don't have the capabilities he does.

He has not locked up any option yet, the recommendation may end to be sale. In any event can't exercise the warrant's till Decemeber so a good time frame for a look see and it might very well end up being that.

But as humbug said ,if the warrants are issued and trading from August, you can always sell the warrants prior to exercise. good luck with whatever you decide.

[ray23]

Well I pulled my 100K back out it's safe and sound and I have the warrants, that would hurt me the 15K a month won't.

Set is at 861 this morning and I'm back in the green.

[ray23]

Any thoughts about SAT at 22.30

I think I may have missed this one or is there room to grow. I know it supplies Toyota

[bjohn34]

Any thoughts about SAT at 22.30

I think I may have missed this one or is there room to grow. I know it supplies Toyota

If you decided to buy SAT, hope you got it before the runup today. Personally, if i wanted to have it for the longer term, I would wait for a little pullback to buy, but that is just me.

On a more general note, the most important lesson I have learned in many years of trading is to have a plan(price ) to sell a stock before you buy it, and if it gets there, sell it, or use a trailing stop loss to protect your gains. If you are using fixed stop losses, put it in place on the day you buy, and don't move it farther away if the trade starts to go against you. "Plan the trade, and trade the plan"..The one thing I do not like about my trading account in Thailand is that I cannot set automatic Take Profit and Stop Loss so I have to follow manually.

Edited August 4, 2010 by bjohn34

[ray23]

Yep took a little bite and made a few baht. Pays good dividends so I think a keeper. Out of my league normally but little bites I can do.

Just read two articles one was Toyota Thailand was trying to convince Japan to let them make more vehicles here.

Ford may be relocating from the P.I to here and possibly the Mazda three production as well. SAT sells to Toyota not sure about other companies. I would provide the source but it's against forum rules.

My normal rules a 10% drop 20% profit sale. That being said man did I miss on STPI. I did OK but could have done a lot better. These days I watch the charts and volume, to confirm I'm right before I do anything.

Stay very current on the business news. As I recall they expect to export 750K units this year.

If that is correct this company should do just fine.

[ray23]

I may have qualified for the Dividends I don't know today was the book closing date. Maybe yes maybe no wouldn't be bad .40

[Abrak]

I may have qualified for the Dividends I don't know today was the book closing date. Maybe yes maybe no wouldn't be bad .40

Actually you raise an interesting question slightly inadvertently. Namely if you are dealing for yourself through the internet and you are buying local stock, you are "in theory" not entitled to entitlements such as dividends, warrant issues, voting rights etc.. simply on the basis of the fact you are a foreigner. I say "in theory" because I have no idea whether people actually receive them in practice.

"In theory" foreigners should only hold local shares in the form of NVDRs, which gives you all the entitlements of a share except voting rights. So, for instance if I wanted to buy SAT, I would actually put in the order on the local board as SAT-R. There is absolutely no difference in what I am actually buying or in the price I am buying it. It does however give me the secure knowledge that I have all rights apart from being NV 'non-voting.'

If you are buying through a broker, I would guess they -R automatically. The reason I bring this up is that it can certainly be a problem 'in practice.' I used to run a Thai listed entity (rather small and illiquid I might add) and when we issued a free warrant, some foreign shareholders did not receive their entitlement because they owned locally registered stock rather than -F or -R. And to the extent that entitlements are not paid out a Board of a company which has the flexibility to allocate non-entitled entitlements is not in a position to reimpose entitlement.

All this means in practice is that you buy and sell -R. Some people may do this automatically without actually knowing the reason why. Some foreigners might simply buy local and still receive all entitlements. But even if you do, you are not entitled to them under the Law, and it is up to the registrar whether they are allocated. My point is that to the extent you buy local as a foreigner you should be aware that you are not in fact entitled to your entitlements.

Coming back to SAT then, it is obvious that Ray should be entitled to the dividend (unless he sells before Ex-D). If he does not receive it though it will be because he owns local stock while being a foreigner.

[ExpatJ]

I may have qualified for the Dividends I don't know today was the book closing date. Maybe yes maybe no wouldn't be bad .40

Actually you raise an interesting question slightly inadvertently. Namely if you are dealing for yourself through the internet and you are buying local stock, you are "in theory" not entitled to entitlements such as dividends, warrant issues, voting rights etc.. simply on the basis of the fact you are a foreigner. I say "in theory" because I have no idea whether people actually receive them in practice.

"In theory" foreigners should only hold local shares in the form of NVDRs, which gives you all the entitlements of a share except voting rights. So, for instance if I wanted to buy SAT, I would actually put in the order on the local board as SAT-R. There is absolutely no difference in what I am actually buying or in the price I am buying it. It does however give me the secure knowledge that I have all rights apart from being NV 'non-voting.'

If you are buying through a broker, I would guess they -R automatically. The reason I bring this up is that it can certainly be a problem 'in practice.' I used to run a Thai listed entity (rather small and illiquid I might add) and when we issued a free warrant, some foreign shareholders did not receive their entitlement because they owned locally registered stock rather than -F or -R. And to the extent that entitlements are not paid out a Board of a company which has the flexibility to allocate non-entitled entitlements is not in a position to reimpose entitlement.

All this means in practice is that you buy and sell -R. Some people may do this automatically without actually knowing the reason why. Some foreigners might simply buy local and still receive all entitlements. But even if you do, you are not entitled to them under the Law, and it is up to the registrar whether they are allocated. My point is that to the extent you buy local as a foreigner you should be aware that you are not in fact entitled to your entitlements.

Coming back to SAT then, it is obvious that Ray should be entitled to the dividend (unless he sells before Ex-D). If he does not receive it though it will be because he owns local stock while being a foreigner.

Good point- i know some farangs who do not receive dividends and some who do.

[ray23]

Well because of the Big O ( Obama ) and his treasure hunt, the account is in my wifes name whom I trust a lot more the the Big O and his search for treasure.

So I have been paid dividends. I trade through Asia stocks. One guy on Thaistocks, made the mistake of using a major off shore broker therefore he not only doesn't get dividends. He want heavy on that last warrant issue. It's now very questionable if he will get those. It is covered in Thaistocks as to off shore brokers. Hey anyone cam make mistake,hopefully he will get taken care of.

They are in the money. ( w-3 )

The only that could stop mine is buying in on the book closing date. Truth is it wouldn't have changed my mind

Edited August 5, 2010 by ray23

[ExpatJ]

Well because of the Big O ( Obama ) and his treasure hunt, the account is in my wifes name whom I trust a lot more the the Big O and his search for treasure.

So I have been paid dividends. I trade through Asia stocks. One guy on Thaistocks, made the mistake of using a major off shore broker therefore he not only doesn't get dividends. He want heavy on that last warrant issue. It's now very questionable if he will get those. It is covered in Thaistocks as to off shore brokers. Hey anyone cam make mistake,hopefully he will get taken care of.

They are in the money. ( w-3 )

The only that could stop mine is buying in on the book closing date. Truth is it wouldn't have changed my mind

I am married to an American and my kids have US passports, but as a Brit i chose not to get a greencard precisely because i didnt want to have to pay tax to IRS on my investments in Thailand. Infact an increasing number of americans working in finance outside of the US are giving up their US citizenship for this reason (just do search on google news.com)

[Abrak]

Good point- i know some farangs who do not receive dividends and some who do.

Just to reiterate my rather boring point. There is absolutely no economic issue about farangs owning local stock. Simply adding -R means you deal in local stock at local prices and gives you all economic benefits. It is not like farangs owning/not owning freeholds. It is totally legal and the very concept of NVDRs. So those people who dont receive dividends are losing something without gaining anything.

And if you think I am being boring about this issue, I could be explaining why you could end up buying a stock after it goes ex-D and still not end up losing a dividend. aka. BP.

And Ray's point about using an 'offshore broker' and 'getting taken care of' is totally mute, in that all 'tax free' listed company transactions must take place through a local broker. 'Crossing' offshore - while apparently a habit of Thaksin - will expose you to domestic taxes.

Edited August 5, 2010 by Abrak

[SamritT]

TPP. It is the best stock i ever bought.

[ray23]

Abrak let me know what happened.

Tax here is only on dividends and it deducted before you get your money, so nothing to do really.

The tax issue for Americans is a unique thing. If I have account in Thailand with more then ten thousand dollars in it I have to file taxes. Both of my retirements are disability and tax exempt so far. I don't trust what I see in America these days and have no desire to get in their radar.

I would never give up my Citizenship. Just because I don't like what I see there now, there to things change with time.

Ok back on subject what happened on the warrants?

[Abrak]

Abrak let me know what happened.

Tax here is only on dividends and it deducted before you get your money, so nothing to do really.

The tax issue for Americans is a unique thing. If I have account in Thailand with more then ten thousand dollars in it I have to file taxes. Both of my retirements are disability and tax exempt so far. I don't trust what I see in America these days and have no desire to get in their radar.

I would never give up my Citizenship. Just because I don't like what I see there now, there to things change with time.

Ok back on subject what happened on the warrants?

Sorry Ray in the implication that my post might imply you are doing anything wrong.

Quite the opposite. You are only totally going to get screwed if your wife runs off with Obama.

I believe that you have a totally credible strategy and based on you using your wife's account, you are fully aware of what benefits and potential downside that might bring you. If your wife actually ran off with the postman, there is no way I believe that you would come on to this forum and whinge about it.

So please accept that my post wasnt aimed at you and if I wish to aim something at you I will. (I also know that you are hardly likely to go to bed crying because of any criticism you receive - good or bad.)

On which subject - what do you actually mean by a stock is 'out of my league'?

[bjohn34]

I may have qualified for the Dividends I don't know today was the book closing date. Maybe yes maybe no wouldn't be bad .40

Actually you raise an interesting question slightly inadvertently. Namely if you are dealing for yourself through the internet and you are buying local stock, you are "in theory" not entitled to entitlements such as dividends, warrant issues, voting rights etc.. simply on the basis of the fact you are a foreigner. I say "in theory" because I have no idea whether people actually receive them in practice.

"In theory" foreigners should only hold local shares in the form of NVDRs, which gives you all the entitlements of a share except voting rights. So, for instance if I wanted to buy SAT, I would actually put in the order on the local board as SAT-R. There is absolutely no difference in what I am actually buying or in the price I am buying it. It does however give me the secure knowledge that I have all rights apart from being NV 'non-voting.'

If you are buying through a broker, I would guess they -R automatically. The reason I bring this up is that it can certainly be a problem 'in practice.' I used to run a Thai listed entity (rather small and illiquid I might add) and when we issued a free warrant, some foreign shareholders did not receive their entitlement because they owned locally registered stock rather than -F or -R. And to the extent that entitlements are not paid out a Board of a company which has the flexibility to allocate non-entitled entitlements is not in a position to reimpose entitlement.

All this means in practice is that you buy and sell -R. Some people may do this automatically without actually knowing the reason why. Some foreigners might simply buy local and still receive all entitlements. But even if you do, you are not entitled to them under the Law, and it is up to the registrar whether they are allocated. My point is that to the extent you buy local as a foreigner you should be aware that you are not in fact entitled to your entitlements.

Coming back to SAT then, it is obvious that Ray should be entitled to the dividend (unless he sells before Ex-D). If he does not receive it though it will be because he owns local stock while being a foreigner.

I trade through my online brokerage account with Kimeng. As a foreigner, it will only allow me to buy NVDR. If I accidentally try to do otherwise, it will reject the order. I don't have to specify the -R on the code, but must check a box for NVDR order.

I have had no problem getting dividends, usually deposited directly to my bank account. Occasionally I get a check, which I then deposit.

[ray23]

ABvak :D :D

No I actually wanted to know what you were thinking, so no tears :jap:

But it is answered now the Broker he used, entered him into the SET, using the wrong code.

The wife and the Post man HMMM!!!!!!!

No she gets more by staying if I die under mysterious circumstance's find that Postman

Edited August 5, 2010 by ray23

[ray23]

Sorry forgot part of your question "out of my league" It's actually a baseball term, in this case it means it's an expensive buy for the capitol I have to work with.

Man the SET is at 875 today, when is the other shoe going to drop. Meaning when is it going to go down?

On one other thread it's after Mothers day, Thursday of next week. That seems logical for the Thai approach. I'm some low volumes in some of holdings. So far I haven't seen anything about the foreign money slowing down. I don't think they know about Mothers day so what do you think?

[ray23]

SET finished off today at 875, anyone else waiting for the other shoe to drop?

It is being said it is top heavy and it will turn down, so far it hasn't, But it has to eventually. So to be ready for that I made sure I have diversification.

At this juncture I think as far as buying new stocks I'm done for at least six months. The one I have have been researched by Thaistocks I know they are strong companies. So if I see drops now I will buy more shares of that stock.

Ok where I stand now Portfolio value 309,182

Money invested 250,000

Profit 59,182

Be nice if that turned into 50 %

I don't really expect that, when it happened last time it was nice and has let me build a good account for myself. But remember I'm the guy trying to beat the bank rates so far so good.

I'm grateful to the members on Thaistocks and all the other guys from different forums

B.P ABVAK finally sunk in Yep they can pay or not pay for any reason.

[ray23]

t's interesting I may be wrong but it seems better to sale in the morning, the market seem to make corrections in the afternoon. So I now make very low offers on a good stock in the morning and wait about 80% of the time I get them at a lower price. But then maybe the PTSD is working again.

Talk about lucky I sold enough shares in Global this morning to get my profit at 43%, I stayed with it and I'm still at a 39% on my remaining shares and it's still showing a profit. I sold just mins. before it dropped nothing but luck no skill involved.

[SamritT]

Lucky you.

[humbug]

i actually kept on the sidelines this week, thinking that maybe 2-3 more % would be shaved of the thai market, with 2 days holiday and weakness in most markets in europe, us and asis, but this thai market is showing that thais are not ready to sell of in any large way, 1-2 % down and they quickly scoop it up again with the mid-small caps, still i think on my part this week its better to watch and wait if there is a continued sell of in the world markets, the thai market will have to react on monday in my mind, or if no major world market corrections then next week will be much the same as this week

if the market doesnt have a small correction next week then i will continue to stay on the sidelines, i tried to pick up bland-w2 at 0.17 and cgd-w1 at 0.23 , but the market normally closing starts to sell off in dramatic fashion for these kind of stocks but actually this afternoon there was strong momemtum in these stocks so couldnt get these prices, lets see what monday brings

Edited August 11, 2010 by humbug

[ray23]

I managed to get some good buys on accumulation, the past two days. 861 today we will see what Monday brings.

Kelive still says foreigners are net buyers.

[humbug]

i am not really looking at the points total on the set, just looking at the major drivers of this market, the thai retail investors at the moment, there are not letting up in any way, just when you thought that maybe just maybe they might sell of a little into the early weekend they actually started to pick up again into a strong finish for mid-small caps, it seems it would need a major correction for the rest of the week around the world for thais to sell a little more or just tire a little and let some stocks recapture their impitus, next week will be extremely interesting for the set, still some of the small-mid caps leaders are starting to tire at certain price points already so thats what i will be looking at whether to wait or see if they pick up another leg of steam and join in next week or still wait on the sidelines and pick up the prices i am looking for

Edited August 11, 2010 by humbug

[ray23]

Thailand ,may have dodged the bullet with the long holiday. Asian stocks are picking up a bit this morning from the past two day's of losses. I have been told not to expect what we have seen over the past few months it's the not the norm.

Probably something everyone else already knew. But as a newbie little tid bits like that keep me from panicking.

See where it goes Monday.

[Abrak]

Thailand ,may have dodged the bullet with the long holiday. Asian stocks are picking up a bit this morning from the past two day's of losses. I have been told not to expect what we have seen over the past few months it's the not the norm.

Probably something everyone else already knew. But as a newbie little tid bits like that keep me from panicking.

See where it goes Monday.

Well if you want to relax. I once did a 20 year study of the seasonality of the Thai stock market (actually I got someone else to do it.) Essentially there are no gains between now and the beginning of December. And the best day to buy is December 6th.

Now I could be entirely wrong but Ray you might have noticed that the speculation is switching from 'value' to speculation. Say from 'STA' to 'True'. The problem you might find (or I will find) is that if the market goes up I will be in the wrong stocks as I dont chase speccies. The value mid/small caps seem to be stalling. If you find something special I am sure it will do well but I fear your 'value' small/mid cap approach which is great long term isnt quite the place to be if there is a further surge. IMHO you should relax a bit. You have done well, hope it comes back etc.. You will find it difficult to switch into very speccie - say True going to Bt15 - when your basic philosophy is more value orientated.

Despite what people tell you there is no such thing as a lost profit.

I can tell Humbug knows this market well. I am not sure what he thinks. I am totally unsure of the direction myself. Personally I hate bull markets. I underperformed in 2003 and 1993. Mind you it is just my philosophy, that you actually make money in dull markets and bull markets are more luck than judgment.

Edited August 13, 2010 by Abrak

[ray23]

Sage Advice as usual. I have one that is paying dividends in September and a closing date of August 30th. I'm light in it now and it's the green at the moment. I will watch that one if I can get a good buy, I will take for the increased dividends.

I also have the warrants but I don't think I need to do anything with those until December or later.

I've actually accomplished my original goal for the year already. I'm actually thinking it might be a better to take time to ad to my buy account a 15 K a month and have little better cash position.

Your thoughts basically back up what Koon Korn and many others have said. Sideway's for awhile

Thanks

[ray23]

SET at 860 today, But, I didn't get hurt much through it, lost 1371 baht

I also managed to pick up some good buys on consistent performers.

So no complaints look like an interesting week ahead.