Deflation! Us & Europe 2006 Ending 2009!

[Harmonica]

Where will be the only few places to hide and watch?

In long-term short positions?

By the way, how do you reconcile the deflation prediction with your USD prediction?

In a Deflation the USD will soar , contrary to what fundamentalists, even Jewish ones like yourself, state ever so vehemently!

On a different note, GBP versus Yen has been an outstanding carry trade for those who held the currency pair in favor of LONG the British Pound for years. It earned $23 per day in Interest differential alone, without counting the gain in currency exchange, on a $100,000 stake. The future for this pair is in question now as Britain's rates are changing and Japan will ..... ???

God, do I love it so!

[AlexLah]

I say, inflation within two years as that seems an acceptable term reading this Fred.

Much higher foodprices within a year and high oil price within 1.5 year.

Hopefully we will still have internet by 2011.

[Harmonica]

>>>>>>>> Harmonica,

How in YHO-- will the UK£ fare in this deflation tidalwave? <<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Don't know!

But here is an educated guess:

For the forseeable future the $ will trounce the Pound.

For the longer-term it is better to hide and watch how the Bank of England will act on Interest Rates.

My feeling is that BOE will loosen now, not tighten. As for what it will do in the future, better to wait and see.

This is a subject that is better viewed and revisited on a monthly basis for these trends, once started can be very long indeed. Right now we are just transitioning from a period where everybody's currency has been hammering the US Dollar and it has taken a huge beating.

Despite the beating, it still remains the world's reserve currency despite China, Korea, Taiwan and other deadbeats threatening to switch to Euro. The total amount they were threatening didn't even amount to what the Forex markets trade in a single day.

&lt;deleted&gt; 'em.

Yeah baby, but I had no idea at that time that the Yen had the inside track and was catching up to the US dollar not just to overtake him, but rather to lap him and then slap silly the Pound, Aussy, Sissy, Nissy and Euro. Lucky for me I caught on later. dam_n pain that Thailand has only 10k Yen notes.

[Harmonica]

I'm aware of the economic dislocation that happened in Thailand in 1998 and I'm aware that some prices for some real estate dropped by 80% and I'm aware that many banks still have lots of non performing loans that originated in that period. The drop in the property market in and of itself does not make a deflating economy...it takes price drops across the economy, not in one sector alone...you have not shown evidence of deflation in that period...I don't think there was any...do you have any data showing a drop in prices across the economy...I don't think so......

And, I want to be sure I understand your prediction. You are predicting a stateside-originated-Deflation tidalwave and the result will be that the US dollar will rise in value with all/most currencies and specifically against the baht.....is this correct? I guess also you are predicting that prices of consumer goods will also drop across the board....this is a necessary part of deflation, right?

Right!

Just one modification in present time - not just a tidalwave, but a 40-metre tsunami ONLY IF/WHEN the S&P500 breaks the support its resting on since November 21, 2008 in a meaningful way.

[Harmonica]

The rate of inflation in the US is at a 15-year high. So, your prediction of deflation is humorously wrong.

A nice example of linear thoughting that defines and plagues herd-members even though they revel in it and expound its virtues.

[lannarebirth]

I must say it takes a lot of chutzpah to be wrong for 4 years and then come back to say "I told you so". Not a former Wall Street analyst by any chance?

[OriginalPoster]

I'm aware of the economic dislocation that happened in Thailand in 1998 and I'm aware that some prices for some real estate dropped by 80% and I'm aware that many banks still have lots of non performing loans that originated in that period. The drop in the property market in and of itself does not make a deflating economy...it takes price drops across the economy, not in one sector alone...you have not shown evidence of deflation in that period...I don't think there was any...do you have any data showing a drop in prices across the economy...I don't think so......

And, I want to be sure I understand your prediction. You are predicting a stateside-originated-Deflation tidalwave and the result will be that the US dollar will rise in value with all/most currencies and specifically against the baht.....is this correct? I guess also you are predicting that prices of consumer goods will also drop across the board....this is a necessary part of deflation, right?

Right!

Just one modification in present time - not just a tidalwave, but a 40-metre tsunami ONLY IF/WHEN the S&P500 breaks the support its resting on since November 21, 2008 in a meaningful way.

That's looking like good call of yours considering that it was made back in 2005. Even then though there were signs of it. At that point, the Dollar Index had lost a lot more over the preceding 3 years than the amount that prices in dollar terms had gone up. If the dollar had not slipped in value from 2002 to 2005 the US's deflationary problem would have been everybody's favorite topic even back in 2005.

Edited February 13, 2009 by OriginalPoster

[OriginalPoster]

I must say it takes a lot of chutzpah to be wrong for 4 years and then come back to say "I told you so". Not a former Wall Street analyst by any chance?

Depends. If he had the balls to invest his money according to that thesis back in 2005 and stood pat ever since, then he probably did better than most investors over that period of time. If all that he got out of it was an "I told you so", that would be unfortuanate.

Edited February 13, 2009 by OriginalPoster

[midas]

What has a long way to go yet? the stock market? Currency "revaluation"? Home prices?

.

Investors in Stocks havent " capitulated " yet ...but they will................

Currency movements make no sense to me

As for home prices well I can only see wages in places USA and Uk for example going down or going nowhere

without a light in the tunnel and without that changing how can prices go anywhere

excepy down because there wont be any more stupid mortgages given based on 5 or even 7 x income- it

will be back to 2.5 x income.

[flying]

From yesterday into next week is major time window for me. Markets moved down into it, so my initial reasoning is they shall move up out of it. I could be proven wrong as early as next week, but it wouldn't be the first time. I have 3 more significant time windows later in the year. We'll see.

You are on the same page as another cyclist I read. His window goes from the 2nd week of Feb also. It is interesting to watch & read these things. He has been quite accurate. What is surprising to me about it all is I had assumed

(perhaps wrongly) that cycles were based on charting past events & so never expected them to be accurate in a situation that has not been played before but...........Having never really read or studied it I am starting to wonder if it is more based on a attraction & repulsion based in time & not past events?

Ah someday I will read

Edited February 13, 2009 by flying

[Naam]

I must say it takes a lot of chutzpah to be wrong for 4 years and then come back to say "I told you so". Not a former Wall Street analyst by any chance?

looking at the time frame i was thinking of the proverbial broken clock but refrained from commenting

[Harmonica]

British Pound

Pound sitting at precarious Empire verschwinden line versus Thai Baht (GBP-THB). Empire verschwinden line already royally busted virulently in Pound vs US Dollar (GBPUSD) (not shown here)

If Pound's battalions cannot hold these 2 antediluvian lines (since prior to at least 1985) or climb back above the GBPUSD busted line, Brits will have to leave Thailand and since Thaivisa is 120% Brit, it doesn't look good for them either. I'm with both. I want them to stay and win but its not up to me.

GBP-THB support cluster is at 50.50 to 48.85 and is sourced by both regular tech. and Fibonacci energy PLUS the magnificent uptrendline from at least 1984.

Failure of this support structure will be dire consequences - but success here could also cause GBP to rocket launch northbound and save the Brits.

I've presented both sides of the story here, but here in a non-advice format is what I, just a mere trader would do were I to find myself in this predicament:

I would have closed the SHORT GBP position well before the arrival at support and stepped aside flat and not even going LONG with just a simple wait and see attitude.

If the supports then failed miserably by a few daily bars showing accelerating downside momentum, I'd switch Pounds into THB or USD or Yen or even Euro.

If the supports hold and we see similar daily momentum bars upward instead of downward, I'd buy into GBP and pray with a STOPLOSS for the whole shabang just a notch or two under the 78.6% Fib level shown at 48.85.

Best of luck. LOS is too good a place to be driven away from. For me its still a magical place. But this BEAR shows no mercy not even to its students. I have scars from 2007 to prove it.

[OriginalPoster]

But this BEAR shows no mercy not even to its students. I have scars from 2007 to prove it.

That's the rub for most of the people who were "right" -- they had the impending crash part right but lost money anyway. While there no doubt are some who cashed in by taking short postions on financial stocks and NOT doing things such as piling into mining stocks, non-USD currencies, and commodities other than gold, most seem more akin to the proverbial weather man who went on TV and urgently (and correctly) warned his viewers that a huge tornado was coming and that they should protect themselves by moving their families into the attics of their houses until the danger passed. But heck, if you were right, that's more important than making money, so what if your family got swept away when the roof came off the house.

Edited February 14, 2009 by OriginalPoster

[Harmonica]

I usually present the technical side, but when it comes to the fundamental picture I know the names of very reliable experts such as Paul Krugman, Nobel winner and perhaps a handfull others who present uncooked and therefore accurate data.

Bill Fox is one such expert.

"The United States is bankrupt. The total government liabilities of Medicare and Social Security now total $56.4 trillion. As of January 2009, this amount is now greater than the total net worth of all Americans. The debt equates to more than $480,000 per household. Currently, the average U.S. consumer owes $1.4 dollars for every $1 of income. Nevertheless, the Treasury still enjoys robust bidding at every auction. The Treasury can literally refinance four-week loans at no cost. Institutions worldwide prefer to have their money on deposit with the Fed, or invested in treasuries at a negative real rate of return – just to ensure capital preservation. Fear indeed.

Europe, however, is finding limited demand for euro-based debt. Funding auctions are being postponed or withdrawn due to insufficient bidding. The only answer is to offer higher yields in order to attract investors. Europe will see record debt issuance over the next year, requiring maximum flexibility in the EU stability pact. But, because bond yields are now at historic lows (in both Europe and the U.S.), future interest rates may become onerously high when the time comes to refinance this debt. Certainly bad news for any hopes of a quick euro zone recovery"

whole article here .... http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/arc...ucky-As-US.aspx

[lannarebirth]

I usually present the technical side, but when it comes to the fundamental picture I know the names of very reliable experts such as Paul Krugman, Nobel winner and perhaps a handfull others who present uncooked and therefore accurate data.

Bill Fox is one such expert.

"The United States is bankrupt. The total government liabilities of Medicare and Social Security now total $56.4 trillion. As of January 2009, this amount is now greater than the total net worth of all Americans. The debt equates to more than $480,000 per household. Currently, the average U.S. consumer owes $1.4 dollars for every $1 of income. Nevertheless, the Treasury still enjoys robust bidding at every auction. The Treasury can literally refinance four-week loans at no cost. Institutions worldwide prefer to have their money on deposit with the Fed, or invested in treasuries at a negative real rate of return – just to ensure capital preservation. Fear indeed.

Europe, however, is finding limited demand for euro-based debt. Funding auctions are being postponed or withdrawn due to insufficient bidding. The only answer is to offer higher yields in order to attract investors. Europe will see record debt issuance over the next year, requiring maximum flexibility in the EU stability pact. But, because bond yields are now at historic lows (in both Europe and the U.S.), future interest rates may become onerously high when the time comes to refinance this debt. Certainly bad news for any hopes of a quick euro zone recovery"

whole article here .... http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/arc...ucky-As-US.aspx

You know, Harmonica; I've got the highest regard for Robert Prechter. I think he's a true genius and the work he's doing in mapping Eliot Wave patterns in socioeconomics is extremely interesting. That said, he may be the worlds worst trader and Hochberg and gang who run EWI now propose an EW count now which breaks every rule of the discipline. They have a preconceived point of view and create a count to match that view, even if it doesn't make sense. EWI will bankrupt any trader that takes them seriously.

Edited February 18, 2009 by lannarebirth

[Harmonica]

50K(?) Brits here and not one had a clue what was/is coming. The only exception was kreon, but don't believe he's Brit.

Hope this webboard never gets translated into Thai for if it does and Thais read it, its all over for us. The game would be up. There'd be no more smiles or sawat-dee-krap. There'd be a bounty on every foreigner.

But like Thais, a Brit has a hard time letting any foreigner truly into the circle. When it comes to this, the ONLY exception was America. This quality they had in spades. dam_n shame the country's falling apart.

So its best to let another Brit tell these Brits what I would like to tell them. Its safer that way.

Pay particular attention to the 3rd article on US Treasuries. Why? Because if/when it does happen, the 50(?)k victims here will not have time to prepare an escape route because they'll just be too busy yak-yaking about how bolloxed everything is.

Then take it a step further, but a logical extension of the article, and ask, "what if China and others refuse to buy any more Treasuries?" ....................

Enjoy, but do something.

--------------------------------------

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2007/jun/03/debt.uknews

http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/e...ling-14124.aspx

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/us-tr...lear-35162.aspx

[Harmonica]

Myths:

excepted from Robert Prechter's essays done several months ago ..... Prechter founded the study called Socionomics.

(by the way Prechter is American but freely recognizes that the United States has topped and that the next superpower IS China, already well on its way. Technically he says that the current decline in China is a wave 2. When this decline is over, a long-term wave 3 up begins.

My only disagreement is that I think Japan still has a shot at the title.

Either way it will be great for Thailand because this little country follows the trend in the region, especially Japan, Hong Kong and China. One big family all destined for glory? Wave 3 up could last 100+ years or much, much more.

--------------------------------------------------

I thought the FED was created to help manage the economy?

After a secret meeting on Jekyll Island (GA), Congress and a handfull of bankers created the Federal Reserve System for 2 purposes. The first one was to allow the government to counterfeit money, thereby letting it steal value from savers through inflation. The second was to allow bankers to make profits through debt creation, also at the expense of savers. Any other claim is a smokescreen.

Won't the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.) protect depositors?

The FDIC is not funded well enough to bail out even a handfull of the biggest banks in America. It has enough money to pay depositors of about 3 big banks. After that, its broke. But here's the real irony: The FDIC, as history will ultimately demonstrate, actually causes banks to fail. It does so in 3 ways.

First by its very existence it encourages banks to take risks that they would never otherwise contemplate, while it simultaneously removes depositors' incentives to keep their bankers prudent. This double influence produces an unsound banking system. We have reached that point today.

Second, the FDIC imposes costly rules on banks. In July it implemented a new rule requiring 159 largest banks to keep records that will give quick records to customer info. ..... i.e. a lot of burden on a lot of banks for no reason.

Third, the FDIC gets its money in the form of premiums from guess whom? -- the healthy banks!!!!!!!!! So as weak banks go under the FDIC can wring more money from still-solvent banks. If it begins calling in money during a systemic credit implosion, marginal banks will go under, requiring more money for the FDIC, which will have to take more money from banks, breaking more marginal banks.

The FDIC could continue this behaviour until all banks are bust but it will more likely give up and renege.

Remember, every government program ultimately brings about the opposite of the stated goal, and the FDIC is no exception.

[Harmonica]

Myth (contd)

What if something happens in the political realm to change the downtrend - i.e. reverse it?

On the contrary, events on the political front are right in line with socionomic expectations. As social mood has trended further toward the negative, social conflict has been rapidly increasing. This week, Russia attacked Georgia, and President Bush delivered yet another stunningly belligerent statement to a foreign government, this time to Russia: "The US government insists that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Georgia be respected." (AP 8/14)

This statement continues a string of of Bush administration ultimatums and threats previously delivered to Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Luibya, Turkey, Ukraine, North Korea, Venezuela and China. Yesterday the administration upped the ante by pledging asnti-missile technology to Poland, incensing the Russians further.

Not since 1940, in the last supercycle bear market has a US administration been so hel_l-bent on going to war. Of course a great number of US citizens (91%) are vehemently of the same mind, which is why Bush's popularity rating soared to 91% when he ordered the invasion of Iraq. This mood is exactly what socionomics predicts for bear markets. Putin is in the same chest-puffing league as Bush, not to mention potential successor McCain, who demanded - despite his utter lack of authority- that Russia "unconditionally cease its military operations and withdraw all forces" from Georgia. He added, "In the 21st century, nations don't invade other nations," forgetting that the US government invaded Iraq, fostering death and havoc in the Middle East for 5 years.

If Obama gets elected, he is not likely to avoid confrontation either because McCain has tagged him as weak, so he will strive to prove otherwise.

Today's politicians, at our peril, ignore the Founding Fathers' admonition to avoid foreign entanglements. So, whatever your proclivities, get ready for far more war risk in your personal life.

[colibra]

Don't see any of those deflations your yahooing about. In fact in day to day living prices are up. Only 1 year ago I was buying pork butt for 60 baht. One month ago it was 110 just saw it yesturday for 160 baht per kilo. It seems like this with all the other food products also. So were it matters on a day to day basis I don't see no dammed deflation and I'm not goin to hold my breath either. Get real deflation ba humbug.

Edited February 20, 2009 by colibra

[Harmonica]

Myth (contd)

A deposit is money you own given to the bank for safe keeping.

Courts have now confirmed that you have lent your money to the bank so they can lend it out and split the interest with you. It is speculation and has zip to do with safe keeping.

So your bank book should say, "money lent to our bank to be paid on demand unless we run short!"

If a depositor were to ask a banker, "where is my money?" - the proper answer would be, "its gone"

If he persists and asks, "what then do I own?" ... the banker should say, "shares in a bunch of IOUs"

So here is where DEFLATION comes in - DEFLATION simply makes manifest what is already true - the money is gone - but the obligation to pay it disappears only in the case when borrowers can't pay up. That's a rare thing, which is why Deflation is a rare thing.

Note: lest anyone forget, these magnificent Myth writings are not my own but belong to the originator, Robert Prechter. I've learned them well but they came from him.

[Hairy]

I must say it takes a lot of chutzpah to be wrong for 4 years and then come back to say "I told you so". Not a former Wall Street analyst by any chance?

I must say that I'm impressed as all hel_l. I expected a trainwreck starting in 2002, but when it didn't happen, I just couldn't figure out why; in hindsight, I just didn't know enough about the Fed's manipulations. Greenspan keeping rates low kept the money pump going, and the devaluation of the dollar against other currencies also played a part.

I saw the current mess coming in around July/August of 2007. Still got screwed by those bastards in Washington. I'm taking a more conservative path now and recovering the losses that Bernanke and Paulson's interventions caused me. When you've loaded up on puts, and the Federal Reserve fuc_ks the markets the day before options expiration, there's no saving a cent.

[Hairy]

And, I want to be sure I understand your prediction. You are predicting a stateside-originated-Deflation tidalwave and the result will be that the US dollar will rise in value with all/most currencies and specifically against the baht.....is this correct? I guess also you are predicting that prices of consumer goods will also drop across the board....this is a necessary part of deflation, right?

Right!

Just one modification in present time - not just a tidalwave, but a 40-metre tsunami ONLY IF/WHEN the S&P500 breaks the support its resting on since November 21, 2008 in a meaningful way.

Do you consider last week's drop to Dow 7365 / S&P 770 a meaningful break?

I'm expecting the markets to fall further this week, because it's become blatantly obvious that Geithner and Obama have no fuc_king clue about what they're doing.

[Harmonica]

That's my long-term call! ..... made today, June 22nd, 2005 !

For further understanding of the effects of a deflationary crisis refer to historical evidence relating to the 1929 stock market crash and the deflationary period that occurred thereafter.

No technical analysis for this subject, just obsevations about the structural defects of the World Economy -- so all can participate.

I think I'm the only fella here at TV who has mentioned Deflation is a few posts in the recent past but don't believe that a single other poy-son has even responded --neither have they raised the issue.

Easy Al and rest of the gang and the followers are too busy worrying about Inflation and/or Disinflation.

At least one of the requirements for Deflation is currently RIPE -- and that is?

Nobody (almost) is expecting it !

Want to prepare for this so that you and your family can be on the right side of the avalanche?

Start by offering some definitions for Deflation.

-------------------------------

Deflation officially arrives in China. As usual "officials" are the last to find out anything of importance.

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/market_alerts...6653030850.html

[Harmonica]

And, I want to be sure I understand your prediction. You are predicting a stateside-originated-Deflation tidalwave and the result will be that the US dollar will rise in value with all/most currencies and specifically against the baht.....is this correct? I guess also you are predicting that prices of consumer goods will also drop across the board....this is a necessary part of deflation, right?

Right!

Just one modification in present time - not just a tidalwave, but a 40-metre tsunami ONLY IF/WHEN the S&P500 breaks the support its resting on since November 21, 2008 in a meaningful way.

Do you consider last week's drop to Dow 7365 / S&P 770 a meaningful break?

I'm expecting the markets to fall further this week, because it's become blatantly obvious that Geithner and Obama have no fuc_king clue about what they're doing.

---------------------------------------------

Sorry, belated reply, so markets self-explan .... S&P500 has double-topped - consequences are staggering unless she can climb above and stay above 790 - 740.

but Geithner and Obama ... like you stated, "they don't have a ___ clue" ... agreed 1000% ...... but I have an excuse for both in terms of the economy. See below.

I voted for Obama, dug him as a person, still do, agree with many celebs that he is indeed a very classy fellow. And what Bill Maher said on Jay Leno, "we've finally got a president who can finish a sentence correctly" ..... so many great things to say about this President, so what are the bad things?

I have only one.

Almost as soon as he won, he started the usual coddling of Israel. Same sh*t, different President. Why has nobody yet realized that the entire Muslim world would engage in a love-affair with America if she were to just simply cut the chord with Israel, who has now exceeded the Nazis in terms of brutality and in many ways has become them and wiped out/squandered historically earned goodwill from the holocaust episode. World peace and a thwart of WW3 would be guaranteed if America were to just cut this toxic chord.

No individual, Obama, Geithner or anybody else for that matter, can defeat what's happening in the economic realm. That's just the way it is. It will just have to be allowed to run its course. Unfortunately, the public demands action from their President and govt., but look what happens when you throw money at the BEAR - its fuel for him, akin to throwing gasoline on a raging fire.

The banks should have been allowed to fail. Let them all go bust. So far the govt. is in the trillions in lost taxpayer money thrown at the fire. They could have instead used this money to help the public, the bread-and-butter workingclass folk with foodstamps, a moratorium on mortgage payments for those in difficulty, and general sustenance to tide them over till the fire runs out of juice. But now we have trillions of $ wasted and trillions more yet to be wasted. Obama, dig him as much as I do, is just a man. This economic sh*t is too much for any man to handle gracefully.

Bottomline: I don't blame Obama for any of the economic woes. Not one bit.

I'm solidly in his corner and want him to succeed even though I know the odds are stacked against him.

Because of the BEAR, it would have been better for McCain to have won and spared Obama this humiliation. I never gave a rat's ass for McCain.

[midas]

Almost as soon as he won, he started the usual coddling of Israel. Same sh*t, different President. Why has nobody yet realized that the entire Muslim world would engage in a love-affair with America if she were to just simply cut the chord with Israel, who has now exceeded the Nazis in terms of brutality and in many ways has become them and wiped out/squandered historically earned goodwill from the holocaust episode. World peace and a thwart of WW3 would be guaranteed if America were to just cut this toxic chord.

i

This seems perfectly obvious to you and even to me as non-American so why hasn't this happened?

It seems pretty clear they have much more than just an agreement on diplomatic matters?

Even though there is an awful lot we don't know about the very secretive

Federal Reserve, we do at least know who is largely in control of this body. Could it be

some implied threats in the background to do with this ?

[Harmonica]

That's my long-term call! ..... made today, June 22nd, 2005 !

For further understanding of the effects of a deflationary crisis refer to historical evidence relating to the 1929 stock market crash and the deflationary period that occurred thereafter.

No technical analysis for this subject, just obsevations about the structural defects of the World Economy -- so all can participate.

I think I'm the only fella here at TV who has mentioned Deflation is a few posts in the recent past but don't believe that a single other poy-son has even responded --neither have they raised the issue.

Easy Al and rest of the gang and the followers are too busy worrying about Inflation and/or Disinflation.

At least one of the requirements for Deflation is currently RIPE -- and that is?

Nobody (almost) is expecting it !

Want to prepare for this so that you and your family can be on the right side of the avalanche?

Start by offering some definitions for Deflation.

----------------------------------------

"deflated" is the goal of DEFLATION

billionaires down from 1125 to 793 in Wave 1. BEAR is just getting warmed up.

And when Wave 3 terminates? .... will there be any left?

Billy Gates is now #1.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123680532287700123.html

[Harmonica]

Deflation personified ....................

Just a year ago if you did a search on Google for "capital of Iceland?" ... you'd get the hit, "Reykjavík"

Try it today ..... you get, "five bucks"

-------------------------------------

One of the features of DEFLATION's hard-on?

Leverage, more leverage, and then even more leverage.

Iceland soon to have new brothers and sisters - Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary - one big happy family, each with the same capital, five bucks.

Austria, Spain and Greece essentially being breastfed by Deutschland.

Europe debt at $20-25 trillion. Europe's leverage = 60. USA leverage = 30

And Gordy's Britain?

In the hole for £3 trillion by end 2009-2010

And America?

In the hole for how many trillion? Wait a sec. - should we move to quadrillion already?

[Harmonica]

How DEFLATION attacks a fortress:

BEAR fires a curvilinear arrow that circled Lichtenstein, then Basil, Lausanne, Zurich and Geneva to uncover the chink in the Banking Secrecy fortress, knowing full well that if he could penetrate here and cause an uproar, the industry could implode without much further ado.

"I did not have sex with this woman!" ( only oral sex). .... ( Billy Clinton.)

"We did not release the 52,000 names of US citizens who hold secret accounts here" ( We only gave them 250 names) ...... (UBS bank, Switzerland)

http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article...?articleid=2173

[Harmonica]

I must say it takes a lot of chutzpah to be wrong for 4 years and then come back to say "I told you so". Not a former Wall Street analyst by any chance?

former Wallstreet analyst? .... No chance. Never been an analyst, just a lone trader for going on 9 years now.

(1)

Since it appears you've studied Elliottwave (due to your strong opinions about Steve and Bob and the others) you should know that the wave counting starts from either the 1720 low and/or the 1932 low to gauge/estimate when the next serious downwave would occur. Draw up a quarterly or annual chart of the Dow Jones and you'll see the 2 possible counts with relative ease. What threw most sniffers off the trail was the huge rally from the 2002 bottom that then even exceeded the 2000 top. I got the feeling that a wave B up was the only way to account for it, which meant a giant wave C down to come wherever it ended. The rest is history. So in this light

wrong for 4 years? ..... taken from 1930-2005 = 5% margin of error

wrong for 4 years? ..... taken from 1720-2005 = 1% margin of error.

(2)

You are welcome to get any moderator here to verify that I was expelled from the Thaivisa herd in 2005 and that my posting priveleges wre revoked. - so I could not follow up and post any changes or modifications to the calls.

[Harmonica]

Almost as soon as he won, he started the usual coddling of Israel. Same sh*t, different President. Why has nobody yet realized that the entire Muslim world would engage in a love-affair with America if she were to just simply cut the chord with Israel, who has now exceeded the Nazis in terms of brutality and in many ways has become them and wiped out/squandered historically earned goodwill from the holocaust episode. World peace and a thwart of WW3 would be guaranteed if America were to just cut this toxic chord.

i

This seems perfectly obvious to you and even to me as non-American so why hasn't this happened?

It seems pretty clear they have much more than just an agreement on diplomatic matters?

Even though there is an awful lot we don't know about the very secretive

Federal Reserve, we do at least know who is largely in control of this body. Could it be

some implied threats in the background to do with this ?

Why hasn't this happened?

Jeez, you need to ask?

Jewish lobby holding prominent positions in top financial structures all the way to the righthand man of Obama - Rahm Emmanuel. It is they who run America, not the other way around. America has been taking out their enemies, not hers. Ultimately the lights will go out for all of us unless someone wakes up to this giant blunder.

>>>> some implied threats in the background to do with this ? <<<<<<

Do birds fly?