Thai Elections Early Next Year? Abhisit Doesn't Call The Shots

[webfact]

THAI TALK

Elections early next year? Abhisit doesn't call the shots

By Suthichai Yoon

The Nation

Will, as some political pundits have suggested, the Abhisit government survive until early next year before a general election is called? In fact, the premier told The Wall Street Journal in an interview on Tuesday that he won't call an election until early next year at the earliest, as the government is promoting programmes to bridge the economic divide that fuelled the deadly protests earlier this year.

My advice: Don't bet on it.

For one thing, the government's 2011 Budget is due for second and third readings on August 18-19. The litmus test will prove to be a cliff-hanger. Any misstep or "accident" could easily topple the government.

The numbers game comes into full play here, and there is no question that the opposition Pheu Thai Party will exploit that to the full. After all, the Abhisit coalition's majority is precariously slight.

MPs who are also Cabinet members (24 of them) can't cast votes for the budget's passage for fear of violating the constitutional provision that frowns upon "conflicts of interest". Even though the Juridical Council has ruled that there is nothing wrong with Cabinet members exercising their MPs' rights, the political risk probably isn't worth taking.

But the Council is technically nothing more than the government's advisory body. It's the Constitutional Court that has the final say on this issue. And you can be absolutely sure that the opposition will challenge such a move, if it should come to pass, as vigorously as it can. That, in effect, means preventing any mutiny on board the government's ship of state. The pro-government hands in the House of Representatives are only about 20 more in number than those on the other side. That flimsy majority is bound to embolden potential traitors whose "going price" would jump immeasurably overnight. If nothing else, it would offer the coalition partners that much more bargaining power to seek extra largesse from the budgetary allocations.

For them, whether they deserve it or not isn't the point.

Even pro-government political strategists have warned the administration against taking the plunge and proceeding with the challenge. If the government decides to get ministers to cast their votes to ensure the budget bill's passage (and avoid being toppled in the process), the opposition could submit the case for a legal interpretation to the Constitutional Court.

That, regardless of the court's eventual verdict, could throw a big spanner in the works for the government, because such a move would render the freezing of budget spending that is scheduled to begin on October 1.

Abhisit knows full well he is courting disaster if he thinks his whips can overcome the potential timebomb. Some extra effort will have to be exerted if a catastrophe is to be avoided.

A case in point in the recent censure debate is a grim reminder that anything can happen in such a shaky coalition. In that incident, 14 MPs belonging to Pheu Paendin, a coalition partner, voted against the grain by refusing to endorse Cabinet members from Bhum Jai Thai, another coalition partner.

Speculation has been rife that the government is so concerned about the number of hands it can control on the budget vote that some opposition MPs and "some other parties" have been offered special rewards to vote with the government.

No doubt, the rumours have been targeted directly at the Democrats, who have been stung into a vehement denial. That, in the Thai political tradition, doesn't in any way mean that everything is calm and cordial.

And even if Abhisit manages to navigate the first part of the minefield, the question of whether the Democrat Party will be dissolved or not will follow hot on the heels of the budget debate.

A Straits Times reporter asked the premier last week: "Your party faces two cases of alleged electoral irregularities. What will happen if the Democrat Party is dissolved?"

His response: "We will have to accept the decision and respect the law and decision of the court. Anybody who is disqualified will have to take a break from politics for five years, and the rest will regroup and take it from there. Numbers in Parliament will change, and Parliament will have to find a working majority."

He was then asked: "Is there a possibility that your party could be disqualified?"

Abhisit's brief and direct answer: "Yes, there is the possibility."

In other words, the prime minister probably doesn't know when he can call the next election. On some of the major developments that could threaten his position in the next few months, Abhisit simply doesn't call the shots.

-- The Nation 2010-08-05

[jackdawson]

what's the rush ?

the country is doing GrEaT under the PM

[Robby nz]

Yes.

The PTP will do anything to get Thaksin back.

They need him desperatly as the rest of them dont have any ideas.

[virtualtraveller]

The budget will pass, everyone needs the money, isn't that what politics is all about in Thailand, especially with an election looming. Even Chalerm said the other day that he wants to see the budget dispersed. What happens if it doesn't pass, and the govt collapses, then how long do we wait for the budget dispersal?

It does seem a bit disingenuous that ministers cannot vote, since this shaves 20 votes off the majority, which was the problem with Thai politics all along - a slim majority in Parliament that kept derailing any continuity.

[SomTumTiger]

Utter nonsense - 20 is not a slight majority. 20 is pretty damned large. PTP MP's are already jumping ship, and the mass exodus to Newin is just waiting for the next election call (when they are allowed to switch parties). The "Abhisit's Sky is Falling" articles are so tired... Been almost 2 years and he is still standing, and still doing what people say he should be able to do.

SomtumTiger's predictation - budget passes easily. Reports seize a new issue to show that the "coalition is fragile"...

[SamritT]

The army will always be the boss. Not PAD.

[junglist]

The army will always be the boss. Not PAD.

Yep, The biggest gun wins…

[jayjay0]

Yes.

The PTP will do anything to get Thaksin back.

They need him desperatly as the rest of them dont have any ideas.

What jumped out to me was

"The numbers game comes into full play here, and there is no question that the opposition Pheu Thai Party will exploit that to the full."

Not a word of concern for Thailand in that.

As for needing Thaksin. You have to wonder what they think now with some of the subtle hints that he wants out. Right or wrong it has to worry them. With out him it would be like being on the good ship lolly pop without a crew.

[chuang]

If you want to know when election will be held...just ask Prem...he is in charge, all should know....

[Robby nz]

Chalerm said farewell to four former MPs of Pheu Thai who left to join Bhum Jai Thai Party but said they cannot return to the Pheu Thai Party.

He added that moving to Bhum Jai Thai Party will not benefit them because the party has no real tie with people and their communities.

He is confident that his party will win about 250 seats in the Lower House at the next general election.

Didnt Jutaporn say 300 last week?

Wonder where the other 50 went? a lot to lose in one week, they need the election soon or they will have zero

[Siripon]

Chalerm said farewell to four former MPs of Pheu Thai who left to join Bhum Jai Thai Party but said they cannot return to the Pheu Thai Party.

He added that moving to Bhum Jai Thai Party will not benefit them because the party has no real tie with people and their communities.

He is confident that his party will win about 250 seats in the Lower House at the next general election.

Didnt Jutaporn say 300 last week?

Wonder where the other 50 went? a lot to lose in one week, they need the election soon or they will have zero

Pumjai Thai are offering more money per month, as well as a chance to give an opinion.

All Pheua Thai are offering at present is less money and the demand to act as a personal employee of Thaksin.

There's no dignity- and less money, insufferable!