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Posted
IMO this is only the beginning.

Hopefully we will hit 45 by November, possibly 50 thereafter if the tourists stay away.

Condo prices sure to sink.

If it hit that number, expat condo owners will also be at losing end. Hope the tourists will come soon.

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Posted

Wow GOOD NEWS to all the Amreican Tourist ....ANd also for me..I better got to the exchange booth and change my US currency ...TIME FOR SHOPPING>>heehhehe LOL

Posted

TS knew this would come, and keep coming as long as Thailand is a net importer of fuel. And he has been trying to get the message out that 'frugality' needs to be the watchword where electricity and oil consumtion is concerned.

Why do you lot keep on 'knocking' Thaksin? He is the best Prime Minister the country has got!.

And, IMHO, the best it has had for a long while. I will concede that he has had to let credit flow in the last few boom years. But a credit-led boom was better than the alternative of miserable stagnation. And other countries will have greater problems as they enter the recession with horrendous levels of personal indebtedness.

Is it going to be like 1997/8? Will I see my pound more than double (ie the baht more than halve, as it did when we went from 40 to 88 bahts to the pound)?

I think it is bad, but different. This time the whole world is in the brown stuff, not just the Asian economies.

And in many ways Thailand is better placed than a lot of others.

Thailand doesn't need to import oil to keep its people from dying of cold in winter.

It can easily feed all its people and have a fair bit left to sell for foreign currency. Its people who lose their jobs in the cities will be taken back into their extended families in the rural areas without becoming a great demanders of "Social Security" payments from the others.

The prospects aren't all doom and gloom. And populations that are culturally agricultural are better at making big adjustments, than the more so-called 'sophisticated' ones who are culturally industrial.

So cheer up, chaps. Some serious belt-tightenning is all we need to do to stop our pants dropping off. (But while we are doing it, we must expect some quite violent fluctuations of exchange rates, that will make this week's 5% or so look like a mere bagatelle)

Posted

some of you are very offensive. This weak baht doesn't benefit those of us living here. Stop praying to your god for another '97. and to the one newbie: TURN OFF YOUR CAPS

Posted
some of you are very offensive.  This weak baht doesn't benefit those of us living here.  Stop praying to your god for another '97.  and to the one newbie:  TURN OFF YOUR CAPS

But it does benefit those of us who live here and are paid in US dollars – such as those retired folks drawings the old Social Security check from good old Uncle Sam. :o

Posted

Hi I can’t see a lot of sense here..

But perhaps that’s too much to ask for, why should it be another 97? Things are different this time around and the Thai Bht is floated freely. So daily fluctuations are normal and healthy and market adjustments made regularly - rather than all at once when the dam bursts - like in 97.

I am in euroland and the Thai Bht is holding up well here. Don’t just look at the US dollar, that currency has a habit of fluctuating wildly, just look at the movement against the euro of the last few years...some 40% or more

The dollar in now on the rise and so we should expect dollar/Bht rates to move further.

I would not worry about condo prices either; they are very cheap in BKK

Rising oil prices will put a strain on the entire global economy - and eventually even China - if the price rises enough. Then demand will fall and prices will stabilize.

And for all you doomsday brothers who blame everything onto Thaksin.... well what can I say.......

amarka

Posted (edited)
What's the Baht to £ at the moment? 2 months ago i was getting about 72-£. I'm over again in 2 weeks. Any change?

Mr BoJ

73.20 right now. It dipped to about 72.4 yesterday in the wake of the London bombs (as did the stock market) but is already recovering. Over the past few months, it has come close to 75.

I have to agree with Tyree D - the flavour of some of the posts on here is seriously offensive. The exchange rate matters to me as I'll be living in LOS on a restricted £ income and the ordinary Thai people will get through whatever happens - they always do; but the out and out crowing of some posters is just sick IMHO.

Edited by Steve2UK
Posted

I'm wondering if there is going to be much benefit for even those holding US dollars. The dollar may buy more baht but it will take more baht to by stuff....thanks to rise in oil prices. I just gave my worker a 15% raise and my wife says prices are creeping up at the market too.

Posted
I am in euroland and the Thai Bht is holding up well here. Don’t just look at the US dollar, that currency has a habit of fluctuating wildly, just look at the movement against the euro of the last few years...some 40% or more

The dollar in now on the rise and so we should expect dollar/Bht rates to move further.

I would not worry about condo prices either; they are very cheap in BKK

Rising oil prices will put a strain on the entire global economy - and eventually even China - if the price rises enough. Then demand will fall and prices will stabilize.

"Bath holding versus Euro".

It's only because euro is falling in the same time. And will continue, as you should know that the perspectives are so bad overthere.

And the Bath will continue to fall : Euroland and US can fool the fundamentals because of a "scale" effect, Thailand can not.

The basic economics rules apply 100 % in Thailand : you have an increasing trade deficit and current account deficit ? Your currency is put under pressure and depreciate etc. Which cause an even worst deficit (importations are more expansive).

And if your currency do so, then you have to increase the interest rate. But if you do so, you take a big risk : some bubble may burst... And if you do so...

"if price increase, demand will fall"

Many people continue to believe that oil is just as any other raw material or goods.

"Oil too expansive ? Stop buying it !" like if it was a luxuary dress or a trendy car.

You remember me Queen Marie-Antoinette, just before the French revolution in 1789 : She said : "If they don't have bred, why dont they eat cake ?!"

Our "modern" societies (western or asian) are OIL BASED. Oil is our blood. Oil is our bred.

Other characteristic : this model is like a virus : it spread very fast. Once you have tasted this "way of life" you can not go back (Thailand, China etc.).

Just ask you the question : can you imagine Thais stop driving their cars ?

Can Thailand stop import very expansive oil ? What will happen to their industry ? To the rice export (yes agriculture need oil for diesel and fertilizers) ?

Posted

Hello cclub75,

"Bath holding versus Euro".

It's only because euro is falling in the same time. And will continue, as you should know that the perspectives are so bad overthere.

And the Bath will continue to fall : Euroland and US can fool the fundamentals because of a "scale" effect, Thailand can

yes i agree with you the bht will probably continue to fall against the U.S dollar. the point i was making is that the falls will be daily and part of the overall market reaction rather than the busting of the dam effect like in 97...

The basic economics rules apply 100 % in Thailand : you have an increasing trade deficit and current account deficit ? Your currency is put under pressure and depreciate etc. Which cause an even worst deficit (importations are more expansive).

And if your currency do so, then you have to increase the interest rate. But if you do so, you take a big risk : some bubble may burst... And if you do so...

yes i agree again free market pressures will determine thailands succes or failure. one reason why the american economy is doing better than the european economy right now is that the euro got too expenise and then europe struggled to export. so a devaluation of the currency using normal market forces actually helps most countres. european stocks were at a 2 year high this last week!

And if your currency do so, then you have to increase the interest rate. But if you do so, you take a big risk : some bubble may burst... And if you do so...

i think the days of increasing interest rates to defend a currency are gone - a dangerous and wrong tactic. market pressures will decide the exchange rate - i think Mr Thaksin understands that well

b]"if price increase, demand will fall"[/b]

Many people continue to believe that oil is just as any other raw material or goods.

"Oil too expansive ? Stop buying it !" like if it was a luxuary dress or a trendy car.

You remember me Queen Marie-Antoinette, just before the French revolution in 1789 : She said : "If they don't have bred, why dont they eat cake ?!"

Our "modern" societies (western or asian) are OIL BASED. Oil is our blood. Oil is our bred.

Other characteristic : this model is like a virus : it spread very fast. Once you have tasted this "way of life" you can not go back (Thailand, China etc.).

Just ask you the question : can you imagine Thais stop driving their cars ?

Can Thailand stop import very expansive oil ? What will happen to their industry ? To the rice export (yes agriculture need oil for diesel and fertilizers) ?

yes you have a valid point here, this is the more worrying scenario. we cant simply stop buying oil and oil based products. actually the oil price spike is not due to oil production but to refinery capacity - or the lack of it. but people will buy less if the price rises too high. economies will struggly because everything will be more expensive globally and global demand will fail and week economies and business's will start to make people unemployed. no need to go to work everyday and therefore a drop in demand and therefore more unemployment and therfore a further drop in demand.. the cycle continues until the market says otherwise. i think the only question is when will this happen? if oil prices continue to rise then so will other prices and this means more unemployment and less tourism for everyone... lets hope that this can be averted.

i dont think thailand is any more sensitive to these problems than most other countries.

amarka

I am in euroland and the Thai Bht is holding up well here. Don’t just look at the US dollar, that currency has a habit of fluctuating wildly, just look at the movement against the euro of the last few years...some 40% or more

The dollar in now on the rise and so we should expect dollar/Bht rates to move further.

I would not worry about condo prices either; they are very cheap in BKK

Rising oil prices will put a strain on the entire global economy - and eventually even China - if the price rises enough. Then demand will fall and prices will stabilize.

"Bath holding versus Euro".

It's only because euro is falling in the same time. And will continue, as you should know that the perspectives are so bad overthere.

And the Bath will continue to fall : Euroland and US can fool the fundamentals because of a "scale" effect, Thailand can not.

The basic economics rules apply 100 % in Thailand : you have an increasing trade deficit and current account deficit ? Your currency is put under pressure and depreciate etc. Which cause an even worst deficit (importations are more expansive).

And if your currency do so, then you have to increase the interest rate. But if you do so, you take a big risk : some bubble may burst... And if you do so...

"if price increase, demand will fall"

Many people continue to believe that oil is just as any other raw material or goods.

"Oil too expansive ? Stop buying it !" like if it was a luxuary dress or a trendy car.

You remember me Queen Marie-Antoinette, just before the French revolution in 1789 : She said : "If they don't have bred, why dont they eat cake ?!"

Our "modern" societies (western or asian) are OIL BASED. Oil is our blood. Oil is our bred.

Other characteristic : this model is like a virus : it spread very fast. Once you have tasted this "way of life" you can not go back (Thailand, China etc.).

Just ask you the question : can you imagine Thais stop driving their cars ?

Can Thailand stop import very expansive oil ? What will happen to their industry ? To the rice export (yes agriculture need oil for diesel and fertilizers) ?

Posted

The Baht, I think is in a longterm downward trend. Sure, the oil price has a very significant impact on the economy, but there are other factors, like investor confidence, inflation and tourism which are putting pressure on the currency as well. A prolonged deficit and politcal problems and violence is not helping either.

Longterm, I see it at about 60 to US$

Posted

OlRedEyes may be right IF the dollar holds up.

But that is getting to be quite a big IF.

Only last week, Korea let it slip out that that were reducing their dollar holding. The enormous deficit that the US is running is making the financiers nervous that the dollar could do a really big, nasty lurch down.

Scary times. But I do feel that Thailand has a really good chance of weathering whatever the future holds, rather better than most other countries.

Posted
Hello cclub75,

"Bath holding versus Euro".

It's only because euro is falling in the same time. And will continue, as you should know that the perspectives are so bad overthere.

And the Bath will continue to fall : Euroland and US can fool the fundamentals because of a "scale" effect, Thailand can

yes i agree with you the bht will probably continue to fall against the U.S dollar. the point i was making is that the falls will be daily and part of the overall market reaction rather than the busting of the dam effect like in 97...

The basic economics rules apply 100 % in Thailand : you have an increasing trade deficit and current account deficit ? Your currency is put under pressure and depreciate etc. Which cause an even worst deficit (importations are more expansive).

And if your currency do so, then you have to increase the interest rate. But if you do so, you take a big risk : some bubble may burst... And if you do so...

yes i agree again free market pressures will determine thailands succes or failure. one reason why the american economy is doing better than the european economy right now is that the euro got too expenise and then europe struggled to export. so a devaluation of the currency using normal market forces actually helps most countres. european stocks were at a 2 year high this last week!

And if your currency do so, then you have to increase the interest rate. But if you do so, you take a big risk : some bubble may burst... And if you do so...

i think the days of increasing interest rates to defend a currency are gone - a dangerous and wrong tactic. market pressures will decide the exchange rate - i think Mr Thaksin understands that well

b]"if price increase, demand will fall"[/b]

Many people continue to believe that oil is just as any other raw material or goods.

"Oil too expansive ? Stop buying it !" like if it was a luxuary dress or a trendy car.

You remember me Queen Marie-Antoinette, just before the French revolution in 1789 : She said : "If they don't have bred, why dont they eat cake ?!"

Our "modern" societies (western or asian) are OIL BASED. Oil is our blood. Oil is our bred.

Other characteristic : this model is like a virus : it spread very fast. Once you have tasted this "way of life" you can not go back (Thailand, China etc.).

Just ask you the question : can you imagine Thais stop driving their cars ?

Can Thailand stop import very expansive oil ? What will happen to their industry ? To the rice export (yes agriculture need oil for diesel and fertilizers) ?

yes you have a valid point here, this is the more worrying scenario. we cant simply stop buying oil and oil based products. actually the oil price spike is not due to oil production but to refinery capacity - or the lack of it. but people will buy less if the price rises too high. economies will struggly because everything will be more expensive globally and global demand will fail and week economies and business's will start to make people unemployed. no need to go to work everyday and therefore a drop in demand and therefore more unemployment and therfore a further drop in demand.. the cycle continues until the market says otherwise. i think the only question is when will this happen? if oil prices continue to rise then so will other prices and this means more unemployment and less tourism for everyone... lets hope that this can be averted.

i dont think thailand is any more sensitive to these problems than most other countries.

amarka

I am in euroland and the Thai Bht is holding up well here. Don’t just look at the US dollar, that currency has a habit of fluctuating wildly, just look at the movement against the euro of the last few years...some 40% or more

The dollar in now on the rise and so we should expect dollar/Bht rates to move further.

I would not worry about condo prices either; they are very cheap in BKK

Rising oil prices will put a strain on the entire global economy - and eventually even China - if the price rises enough. Then demand will fall and prices will stabilize.

"Bath holding versus Euro".

It's only because euro is falling in the same time. And will continue, as you should know that the perspectives are so bad overthere.

And the Bath will continue to fall : Euroland and US can fool the fundamentals because of a "scale" effect, Thailand can not.

The basic economics rules apply 100 % in Thailand : you have an increasing trade deficit and current account deficit ? Your currency is put under pressure and depreciate etc. Which cause an even worst deficit (importations are more expansive).

And if your currency do so, then you have to increase the interest rate. But if you do so, you take a big risk : some bubble may burst... And if you do so...

"if price increase, demand will fall"

Many people continue to believe that oil is just as any other raw material or goods.

"Oil too expansive ? Stop buying it !" like if it was a luxuary dress or a trendy car.

You remember me Queen Marie-Antoinette, just before the French revolution in 1789 : She said : "If they don't have bred, why dont they eat cake ?!"

Our "modern" societies (western or asian) are OIL BASED. Oil is our blood. Oil is our bred.

Other characteristic : this model is like a virus : it spread very fast. Once you have tasted this "way of life" you can not go back (Thailand, China etc.).

Just ask you the question : can you imagine Thais stop driving their cars ?

Can Thailand stop import very expansive oil ? What will happen to their industry ? To the rice export (yes agriculture need oil for diesel and fertilizers) ?

Yes, I agree. And I would like to add my $.02 worth. Otis ' Macroeconomics 101. In harmony now.

o sweet Economics

how often have the

doting fingers of pruient

government bureaucrats

pinched and poked

thee

has the haughty thumb of democrats

prodded thy beauty. how

often have crusading lawyers taken

thee

upon their scraggy

knees

squeezing and buffetting thee

that thou mightest conceive

respect and profit unearned

but true to thy

invisible and guiding hand thou

answerest them with unconquerable Equilibrium.

Otis

Posted

TNA version:

Baht weakens to new low in 2 years

BANGKOK: -- The baht continued to depreciate this morning and break through the level of 42 to the US dollar to 42.02, the weakest in 2 years or since August 2003, according to a money dealer.

Suksan Wattanayakorn, Vice President of Kasikornbank Plc’s Money Management Division, attributed the further weakening of the local currency to the continued purchase of the dollar as investors expected the United States’ Federal Reserve would raise key interest rates while the central banks of other countries were likely to decrease them.

He said a series of explosions in London subways, which caused many casualties yesterday, had not adversely affected the local currency.

Meanwhile, the Stock Exchange of Thailand’s index continued to fall by more than 7 points at the opening of the market before recouping to close in the positive territory at 639.89, up 1.58 points in the morning session.

Pichit Akkarathit, President of MFC Asset Management Co, said investors rushed to dump shares at the opening of the trading upon concern over the subway bombs in London.

But after that the purchase of stocks in banking, finance, communications and construction contracting sectors had regained the momentum and pushed up the index to the positive territory.

He conceded the subway bombs had affected investment sentiment particularly of foreign investors who want to wait for a clear picture of the situation.

At present, he said, there is no signal of the foreign capital outflow from the country.

However, he believed the heft fuel price rise would have greater impacts on the Thai stock market than terrorist attack fears.

--TNA 2005-07-08

Posted

Bangkok Bank foreign exchange rates at 13.50 to-day.

Buying rates

Notes

USD 1 = 40.92baht

USD 5-20 = 41.30baht

USD 50-100 = 41.75baht

TT USD = 42.05baht

GBP Notes = 72.14baht

Posted

Suksan Wattanayakorn, Vice President of Kasikornbank Plc’s Money Management Division, attributed the further weakening of the local currency to the continued purchase of the dollar as investors expected the United States’ Federal Reserve would raise key interest rates while the central banks of other countries were likely to decrease them.

hi... so where is the surprise then...

of course the Bht will devalue if $ rates climb and Bht rates dont... :o

amarka :D

TNA version:

Baht weakens to new low in 2 years 

BANGKOK: -- The baht continued to depreciate this morning and break through the level of 42 to the US dollar to 42.02, the weakest in 2 years or since August 2003, according to a money dealer.

Suksan Wattanayakorn, Vice President of Kasikornbank Plc’s Money Management Division, attributed the further weakening of the local currency to the continued purchase of the dollar as investors expected the United States’ Federal Reserve would raise key interest rates while the central banks of other countries were likely to decrease them.

He said a series of explosions in London subways, which caused many casualties yesterday, had not adversely affected the local currency.

Meanwhile, the Stock Exchange of Thailand’s index continued to fall by more than 7 points at the opening of the market before recouping to close in the positive territory at 639.89, up 1.58 points in the morning session.

Pichit Akkarathit, President of MFC Asset Management Co, said investors rushed to dump shares at the opening of the trading upon concern over the subway bombs in London.

But after that the purchase of stocks in banking, finance, communications and construction contracting sectors had regained the momentum and pushed up the index to the positive territory.

He conceded the subway bombs had affected investment sentiment particularly of foreign investors who want to wait for a clear picture of the situation.

At present, he said, there is no signal of the foreign capital outflow from the country.

However, he believed the heft fuel price rise would have greater impacts on the Thai stock market than terrorist attack fears.

--TNA 2005-07-08

Posted (edited)

actually the oil price spike is not due to oil production but to refinery capacity - or the lack of it.

Strange statement this and this is the second time I heard it. Thing is it doesn't make logical sense to me. I mean you can't do anything with crude oil itself. It has to be refined and then made into the hundreds of different products further down the line. Surely if there was insufficient refining capacity then by all accounts there should be a lack of demand which market forces would bring down the price, not make it go up.

Don't know enough about this subject so maybe I'm not seeing the wood for the trees on this one, perhaps someone should explain.

My second point is that everyone on this topic is making the same mistake in referring to currencies falling or rising. This is a fundamental error because currencies traded on the FOREX are always traded in pairs e.g. EUR/USD GPB/USD etc.

So you see it is quite wrong to state that a currency is falling, period, in all cases it should be mentioned as to what it is falling against. It could well be rising against other currencies.

Den

Edited by denby45
Posted

actually the oil price spike is not due to oil production but to refinery capacity - or the lack of it.

Strange statement this and this is the second time I heard it. Thing is it doesn't make logical sense to me. I mean you can't do anything with crude oil itself. It has to be refined and then made into the hundreds of different products further down the line. Surely if there was insufficient refining capacity then by all accounts there should be a lack of demand which market forces would bring down the price, not make it go up.

Den

I think that the reasoning behind this is as follows:-

Most countries have a storage capacity for crude oil.

Some countries have larger storage capacity than that which is required to meet their needs, which means that they can purchase oil when the price is lower and store it thus providing a buffer against supply shortages and price hikes.

Where a country does not have enough storage capacity for it`s own needs then the country is virtually at the mercy of market conditions. This is when the price rises as the demand gets greater and shortages occur which again push the price higher.

In my opinion governments should place greater emphasis on creating much larger storage capacity and thus help to alleviate the sudden pressure on oil demand and prices.

Posted

During the past several years, the American dollar has fluctuated against the Thai baht. It seems like whenever I arrive in Thailand around October of every year and stay in my condo for 6 months, the American dollar kept going down. For example, it dipped to about 37.20 baht. But when I travel back to America around April, of course the American dollar then starts to rise.

I pray to Buddha that the good ol' days of '97 comes back with a roar. We would like to get more baht for the greenback just like the Euro and Sterling. Hope it reaches at least 50 or even 60 baht to American dollar.

As for oil prices going up. Thailand's oil prices are still far less than what we pay in the States or other countries.

As for banks in Thailand raising interest rates...it really doesn't mean anything to Americans because we get absolutely NO INTEREST from any money kept in Thai banks anyway.

Let the greenback soar!

Posted

I pray to Buddha that the good ol' days of '97 comes back with a roar. We would like to get more baht for the greenback just like the Euro and Sterling. Hope it reaches at least 50 or even 60 baht to American dollar.

Good for all of you who are happy to see a crash with the baht !

I am sure your dick will have a better chance to get a pussy !

I am sure you can get piss more often and say how wealthy you are !

I am sure too, you do not have any friends in Thailand !

As if you do you will be more considerate !

Posted (edited)
.....................

As for banks in Thailand raising interest rates...it really doesn't mean anything to Americans because we get absolutely NO INTEREST from any money kept in Thai banks anyway.

..............

I'm a foreigner and I get interest on my Thai bank account...perhaps your at the wrong bank..and I won't tell you which one I use.....hahahhahahahhahhhha

Edited by chownah
Posted (edited)
Love it! I earn in sterling and dollars and live in Thailand, and '97 virtually doubled my income. Long may it continue.

:D

I am an American who works outside Thailand.

I send money monthly to my Thai GF/Family/ Children.

I am also geting more Baht for my Dollar these days. It's nice. I like it.

However in economics, everything has a cost as well as a benefit.

As the Thai baht depreciates, foriegn goods become more expensive.

The effect is to make prices in Thai Baht for imported goods more expensive. The effect is that my family pays more for the same standard of living this month than in the previous month.

In economics, there is no such thing as a "free lunch".

:o

Edited by IMA_FARANG
Posted

The Baht dropping won't really help anybody in this coutry very much, as inflation will take hold. So those earning foreign currency will not gain a hellava lot, and those earning Baht will lose. Mai dee

Posted

There is as much refinery capacity as there ever was. The so-called 'shortage' is relative to the increased demand (largely because China is building up its economic activities).

The interesting question is why the oil companies didn't invest in more refinery capacity. Presumably they realise that, without cheaply discovered and cheaply produced oil to feed the system, there won't be the need for more refinery capacity (because higher oil prices will cause people to be more frugal with their use of oil and electricity, which is largely oil-derived).

Thirty years ago, exactly the same thing happened.

Demand got up to where consumption was unsustainable, refinery capacity couldn't meet demand, prices shot up, and consumers started to put in loft insulation etc etc to scale back their requirements.

Compact cars came on the scene in USA.

But now a new generation (of SUV owners) has to learn the lesson.

And there is nothing like finding their pockets emptying too fast to motivate people to learning!

Posted (edited)
The Baht dropping won't really help anybody in this coutry very much, as inflation will take hold. So those earning foreign currency will not gain a hellava lot, and those earning Baht will lose. Mai dee

I beg to differ. As the Baht is already down 10% against the Dollar since the beginning of the year (from around 38 to over 42), and prices have not increased by 10%. So those with Dollar based income have gained already.

Will the future hold major price increases that outpace the gains the Dollar makes against the Baht? Only time will tell.

Edited by TokyoT

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