The Great Debate On Preah Vihear Gets Nowhere

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SIDELINES

The great debate on Preah Vihear gets nowhere

By Sopon Onkgara

WHEN it comes to debates, either in parliament or any public forum, anyone hoping to beat Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva had better think carefully.

Former Democrat leader Chuan Leekpai has long been seen by the Thai media as having a tongue as sharp as a razor blade but laced with honey. His victims, when systematically dissected, do not feel a thing. Or so they say. That legend remained unchallenged, until his successor came around.

Abhisit is a smooth talker. He does not need to cajole his targets. His most fearsome weapon is the combination of the appearance of good faith and sincerity. During tough negotiations he unleashes his charm to disarm careless opponents.

The uproar over the disputed Preah Vihear temple, which has become a political hot potato, is a case in point. If handled with clumsiness or without flair, the issue could wreck the Democrat Party's political future, not to mention the possibility of criminal liability.

When an alliance of public pressure groups held a debate at a sports arena on Saturday, they expected to grill Abhisit. The prime minister showed up in the afternoon to respond to hard questions, and he used the same weapon again, this time with more finesse.

His sincere and friendly grin effectively took away much of the heat from the pressure-cooker atmosphere inside the stadium. While he absorbed probing questions, pressing for commitment to take tough action to reclaim land occupied by Cambodia, he managed to create the impression that he gave the people what they wanted. Actually, he parted leaving nothing - not even a hollow promise. Yet the audience cheered, signifying his considerable popularity, despite their frustration over the slow handling of the issue with Cambodia - which has gradually moved in troops, monks and civilians to occupy land that belongs to Thailand under a World Court judgement.

But at other times, the audience jeered and booed at some of his weak responses. Abhisit was unfazed, using humility and a soft sell to calm hostile reactions. The smile never left his lips. It is a great asset in adversity. Of course, the same smile also worked well when he had two harder sessions with red-shirt chieftains before the mayhem in May.

Abhisit gained from the show. His willingness to face the questions showed those watching the live telecast that he is trying to attend to grievances with benevolent understanding. The audience left pleased, but the organisers did not. They had themselves to blame for not being able to corner Abhisit on their own turf.

The following day, Abhisit's strategy changed when he led a team to argue on the same subject with a group of lawyers, historians, academics and public activists. This time it was a live three-hour debate. It was supposed to be a tougher grilling due to his flip flop on the issue while in opposition and now government.

His tactics against the fearsome group - well armed with documents, charts and maps - were a mix of eloquence, interruption and taking more time, all the while appearing willing to hear their views. His dovish stance pleased the audience, which thinks of war with Cambodia with horror.

The session was not fruitful given the time spent. The two sides should have come up with a national strategy to deal with Hun Sen's ambition of taking away chunks of Thai soil and maritime territories. At stake are large petroleum deposits eyed by big oil firms from countries siding with Cambodia.

As the debate went on, Hun Sen and his Cabinet members must have been watching, plotting counter-strategies. That came yesterday, with a letter to the UN Security Council accusing Thailand of intending to unilaterally nullify a memorandum of understanding over the border dispute, and using troops to gain leverage during negotiations. It proves that Phnom Penh - now giving refuge to red-shirt leaders accused of terrorism - is far better prepared than the Thai side when it comes to offensive diplomatic moves.

Abhisit shone in the debates, but he still has to prove himself. He will need fortitude to order the use of military force as a last resort to drive out the Cambodians and regain sovereignty over the areas surrounding the temple. Let's hope that Abhisit does not blink when he sits face to face with the thuggish ex-Khmer Rouge cadre who lost no sleep when he double-crossed his comrades to seize power, and who has managed to last over 25 years in office unchallenged.

-- The Nation 2010-08-10

[jayjay0]

They state

"The session was not fruitful given the time spent. The two sides should have come up with a national strategy to deal with Hun Sen's ambition of taking away chunks of Thai soil and maritime territories. At stake are large petroleum deposits eyed by big oil firms from countries siding with Cambodia."

No Temple there.

[geriatrickid]

They state

"The session was not fruitful given the time spent. The two sides should have come up with a national strategy to deal with Hun Sen's ambition of taking away chunks of Thai soil and maritime territories. At stake are large petroleum deposits eyed by big oil firms from countries siding with Cambodia."

No Temple there.

Au contraire, it is the Temple of Cha-Ching and if Thailand has any common sense it will tread lightly. Guess who is a major player in the oil field development? Go on, guess. Which country is obsessed with seeking out stable petroleum sources? Need a hint? You can by a consonant for 10 baht mmkay, it starts with a C.

...........................................................................................................................................................................................................CHINA.....................................

In case people are unaware, here are the major players involved with Cambodia.

Block A - Chevron has 55%. Mitsui Oil Exploration Co., Ltd (Moeco) has 30% and GS Caltex Corporation (Korean) has 15%. Block A – the only block that has been actively explored so far. Chevron announced in 2005 that it had discovered oil in four exploration wells and gas in one well. According to Chevron, the oil discovered consists of a number of small dispersed fields rather than a large single block.

Block B belongs to PTT Exploration and Production (33.34%) ( - It's a Thai Co.), Singapore Petroleum (33.33%), and Resourceful Petroleum (It's a Malaysian co.) (33.33%). The first exploration well drilled in this block found no recoverable oil. (Are you surprised? No wonder the Thais are crying?

Block C belongs to Polytec Petroleum (A hong Kong Co.),

Block D belongs to China Petrotech. Analysts estimate that Block D could contain either 226.9 million barrels of recoverable oil or 496.2 billion cubic feet of gas.

Block E belongs to Medco Energi (41.25%), (Indonesian Co.) Kuwait Energy (20.63%), JHL Petroleum (4.13%), 34% Lundin Petroleum (a Swedish Co.)

Block F belongs to the Chinese National Offshore Oil Corporation.

Exploration rights are granted for a period of four years, after which they may be extended twice for a period of two years at a time.

Now I understand why there are so many offshore oil guys in Thailand. Looks like a list of major Asian market players with China being the biggest player. Does anyone have a feeling that Thailand is going to get a big dose of whoop if it causes trouble?

[thaihome]

In case people are unaware, here are the major players involved with Cambodia.

Block A - Chevron has 55%. Mitsui Oil Exploration Co., Ltd (Moeco) has 30% and GS Caltex Corporation (Korean) has 15%. Block A – the only block that has been actively explored so far. Chevron announced in 2005 that it had discovered oil in four exploration wells and gas in one well. According to Chevron, the oil discovered consists of a number of small dispersed fields rather than a large single block.

Block B belongs to PTT Exploration and Production (33.34%) ( - It's a Thai Co.), Singapore Petroleum (33.33%), and Resourceful Petroleum (It's a Malaysian co.) (33.33%). The first exploration well drilled in this block found no recoverable oil. (Are you surprised? No wonder the Thais are crying?

Block C belongs to Polytec Petroleum (A hong Kong Co.),

Block D belongs to China Petrotech. Analysts estimate that Block D could contain either 226.9 million barrels of recoverable oil or 496.2 billion cubic feet of gas.

Block E belongs to Medco Energi (41.25%), (Indonesian Co.) Kuwait Energy (20.63%), JHL Petroleum (4.13%), 34% Lundin Petroleum (a Swedish Co.)

Block F belongs to the Chinese National Offshore Oil Corporation.

Exploration rights are granted for a period of four years, after which they may be extended twice for a period of two years at a time.

Now I understand why there are so many offshore oil guys in Thailand. Looks like a list of major Asian market players with China being the biggest player. Does anyone have a feeling that Thailand is going to get a big dose of whoop if it causes trouble?

The areas you describe are not in the overlapping area. Development for Block A, the only that has been explored, is on hold as there is no infrastructure to bring the oil or gas onshore. Would require a billion dollar plus investment to do so. Until the overlapping area are settled, there is probably not enough production to justify it by itself.

Both Thailand and Cambodia have awarded exploratory rights to different companies in the overlapping area, though none have exercised them at this point as both Countries have threatened to send their navy out to stop anyone that tries.

It’s a stalemate at this point and the temple is just an internal nationalistic diversion for both at this time. Thailand holds most of the cards as the have the market for the oil and gas and infrastructure to get it onshore (pipelines, etc). Cambodia has pretty much nothing except the claims.

Most of the "offshore oil guys" you see in Thailand are working in the Thailand areas. Two major gas fields are being developed by Chevron and PTTEP right now with pipelines in works to connect them to the 3rd transmission pipeline.

TH

[SamritT]

"Abhisit is a smooth talker. He does not need to cajole his targets. His most fearsome weapon is the combination of the appearance of good faith and sincerity. During tough negotiations he unleashes his charm to disarm careless opponents." EXACTLY.

[rubl]

The great debate on Preah Vihear gets nowhere

Luckily the temple isn't going anywhere either. Take your time for discussions, it'll still be there in twenty years time. Just make sure tourists can access the grounds like they could all these years. No need for extra security, only the usual two-tier pricing scheme