Thai Baht Rises To 13-Year High After Stock Inflows Pick Up

[george]

Thai Baht Rises to 13-Year High After Stock Inflows Pick Up

BANGKOK: -- -- Thailand’s baht climbed to the strongest level since 1997 after overseas investors stepped up purchases of local stocks, seeking to profit from the nation’s improving economy.

Global funds bought $298 million more of Thai equities than they sold in the five days ended Sept. 3, the biggest weekly net purchases since March, and the benchmark SET Index of shares was headed for its best close since 1996, exchange data show. The central bank predicts the economy will expand as much as 7.5 percent in 2010, which would be the fastest pace in 15 years.

The baht gained 0.3 percent to 31.12 per dollar as of 1:33 p.m. in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It touched 31.06, the strongest level since August 2007.

-- bloomberg 2010-09-06

[PTYstefan]

This is really no good News to the Foreigners currently living in Thailand. But do they even know that this affects the Tourist and all the Exports.

in this High Season they really need to put the Thai Baht down. Else next Year no one is going to come NO more.

[alex_aka_P]

This is really no good News to the Foreigners currently living in Thailand. But do they even know that this affects the Tourist and all the Exports.

in this High Season they really need to put the Thai Baht down. Else next Year no one is going to come NO more.

Or lower the prices (in Thai Baht), make'em be equal to so-called "service".

Currently most of offers (in travel industry) are well overprised comparing to the quality.

Edited September 6, 2010 by alex_aka_P

[gotlost]

30.71 USD 47.43 GBP 39.60 ERU Bangkok Bank as I post.

[midas]

Of course I am very pleased for Thailand

but I am only trying to understand the dynamics here ? I could understand

it more if other countries were also enjoying this performance – but they are not ?

What sector or industry in Thailand is performing so well that " the economy will expand as much as 7.5 percent in 2010, which would be the fastest pace in 15 years."while others in the region cannot keep up ?

And what was it that sparked the SET to go up almost vertically after June until now after sitting around 800 for many weeks ?

Could someone please explain what is it that Thailand is doing so right while others are getting it so wrong -and all this even with a record high Baht ? for example recent articles :-

1. Chinese Manufacturing Growth Slows

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704702304575402790818935282.html

2. Japan GDP figures show sharp slowing of economic growth

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-10978958

3. Vietnam's Stocks Fall, Entering Bear Market on Policy Concerns

http://www.vnstocknews.com/2010/08/vietnams-stocks-fall-entering-bear.html

4. The Malaysian economy: A misplaced optimism?

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/opinion/article/the-malaysian-economy-a-misplaced-optimism/

Edited September 6, 2010 by midas

[Chunky1]

All the world markets are poised to tumble, imho.

[antony77]

This is great news for us expatriates who live here and work here. We can now afford holidays in the UK and US.

[antony77]

This is really no good News to the Foreigners currently living in Thailand. But do they even know that this affects the Tourist and all the Exports.

in this High Season they really need to put the Thai Baht down. Else next Year no one is going to come NO more.

his is great news for us expatriates who live here and work here. We can now afford holidays in the UK and US. Tourists still find Thailand very cheap and are flocking here. Ever had a beer in a Pub in Oz or UK? Three times the price of here.

[tonititan]

This is great news for us expatriates who live here and work here. We can now afford holidays in the UK and US.

Yup. Selfishly, it's great news for me because my Thai income earns me more money at home, and not being involved in inports/exports or the tourism industry, I see little day-to-day effects.

I do feel bad for people who are negatively affected, but I'd be pleased to see it drop even lower. Sorry guys!

[nikkoid66]

30.71 USD 47.43 GBP 39.60 ERU Bangkok Bank as I post.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=THB&view=1D

<deleted> are these 2 peaks? Someone is playing with the currency...

Also 29.94 Bath/USD as I post

[alex_aka_P]

Thai Baht is "stronger" and "strongest in 13 years", blahblahblah - than why the hel_l are all prices rising up?

Comparing to 13-years-ago prices, I hardly see a "strongest baht".

[midas]

30.71 USD 47.43 GBP 39.60 ERU Bangkok Bank as I post.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=THB&view=1D

<deleted> are these 2 peaks? Someone is playing with the currency...

Also 29.94 Bath/USD as I post

that is why i posted my rather long question before....

But if you suggest manipulation of currency or even statistics

you are usually called a conspiracy theorist

[garyk]

I've tried to post the ways i live here but it is always pulled or closed. Again I personally think Thailand is strickly a playground.

Thailand is smart it extracts money. No investment to speak of. No land owner ship. Only extract and no recourse. For the normanl retired guy or gal.

1. Play by there rules.

2. Don't get invested here.

3. Look out for yourself. Not a thai female or anyone else.

Play the women like they play you. It is so easy. Avoid good girls. You will only hurt them.

Play the players. There are literely thousands of them here.

When the economy is right go home. Keep a home and car back home and no payments.

Just good business.

I see no problem with Thailand and don't care if it drops to 1-1. I won't be here i will be playing in another country.

Why does anyone gripe here. It is pointless. Why do you care about something that you have no say in. Retirement is to be enjoyed daily. When it is not it is time to look elsewhere.

Edited September 6, 2010 by garyk

[nikkoid66]

I've tried to post the ways i live here but it is always pulled or closed. Again I personally think Thailand is strickly a playground.

Thailand is smart it extracts money. No investment to speak of. No land owner ship. Only extract and no recourse. For the normanl retired guy or gal.

1. Play by there rules.

2. Don't get invested here.

3. Look out for yourself. Not a thai female or anyone else.

Play the women like they play you. It is so easy. Avoid good girls. You will only hurt them.

Play the players. There are literely thousands of them here.

When the economy is right go home. Keep a home and car back home and no payments.

Just good business.

I see no problem with Thailand and don't care if it drops to 1-1. I won't be here i will be playing in another country.

Why does anyone gripe here. It is pointless. Why do you care about something that you have no say in. Retirement is to be enjoyed daily. When it is not it is time to look elsewhere.

I mostly agree.

I wanted to add that even with USD/Bath = 10/1 tourist would still come here, since it would still be a good value for the money.

That's probably what whoever makes the Bath strong are thinking.

[elektrified]

Just yesterday I was watching CNBC and a well-known Australian Mutual Fund manager was highly recommending investors to buy put options on the SET as he said "the Thai stock market is vastly overbought and ready for a correction."

For that matter the SET is up over 100% since late 2008 so there may be some good advice there...I don't know.

[rubl]

Just yesterday I was watching CNBC and a well-known Australian Mutual Fund manager was highly recommending investors to buy put options on the SET as he said "the Thai stock market is vastly overbought and ready for a correction."

For that matter the SET is up over 100% since late 2008 so there may be some good advice there...I don't know.

Since end of May the SET has risen 200 - 250 points. Some just recovery after the unrest, some regional gain maybe. This is close to 40% so predicting a correction however temporal seems logical. As for 'overbought' don't know.

[markg]

This is really no good News to the Foreigners currently living in Thailand. But do they even know that this affects the Tourist and all the Exports.

in this High Season they really need to put the Thai Baht down. Else next Year no one is going to come NO more.

his is great news for us expatriates who live here and work here. We can now afford holidays in the UK and US. Tourists still find Thailand very cheap and are flocking here. Ever had a beer in a Pub in Oz or UK? Three times the price of here.

Am recently back in Thailand after a holiday in the UK. The average price of a pint of bitter in pubs i went in was 2 pounds. Thats about 100 baht a pint.

The average price in a bar in Phuket (NOT in a 7/11 etc) would be about 70 baht for a 330ml bottle. Thats about 1.50 for about half a pint. Or close to 3 pounds a pint.

Cheapest pint i had in the UK was 1.50 in a city centre pub right next to Harvey Nichols. That's HALF the price of beer in Thailand.

Beer in Thailand is NOT cheap ! ( I compared like-for-like. Pub in UK vs Bar in Thailand.)

One does have to wonder who is working the money markets here. Certainly it will have an effect on tourism.

Thailand used to be an expensive place to fly to, but that was offset by accommodation, food and entertainment which were cheap. That is now generally not the case. It's still expensive to fly here, but accommodation, food etc are now approaching European prices.

With the global economic downturn, people are going to look at shorter-haul flights to the sun and will save significant amounts of money in doing so.

If you keep aiming at your feet, sooner or later, you're gonna blow your toes off.

[Pib]

Don't worry, the Bank of Thailand is monitoring the baht situation (i.e., watching it appreciate or depreciate, mostly appreciate) and will soon put out some more political spin as to why the baht's appreciation (or depreciation) is as expected, is good for whatever reason, etc...etc...etc. The BOT are good monitors/watchers.

[rubl]

Don't worry, the Bank of Thailand is monitoring the baht situation (i.e., watching it appreciate or depreciate, mostly appreciate) and will soon put out some more political spin as to why the baht's appreciation (or depreciation) is as expected, is good for whatever reason, etc...etc...etc. The BOT are good monitors/watchers.

You think they learned something in 1997 when they squandered away most of Thailand's foreign reserve ?

[asiawatcher]

This is really no good News to the Foreigners currently living in Thailand. But do they even know that this affects the Tourist and all the Exports.

in this High Season they really need to put the Thai Baht down. Else next Year no one is going to come NO more.

his is great news for us expatriates who live here and work here. We can now afford holidays in the UK and US. Tourists still find Thailand very cheap and are flocking here. Ever had a beer in a Pub in Oz or UK? Three times the price of here.

Am recently back in Thailand after a holiday in the UK. The average price of a pint of bitter in pubs i went in was 2 pounds. Thats about 100 baht a pint.

The average price in a bar in Phuket (NOT in a 7/11 etc) would be about 70 baht for a 330ml bottle. Thats about 1.50 for about half a pint. Or close to 3 pounds a pint.

Cheapest pint i had in the UK was 1.50 in a city centre pub right next to Harvey Nichols. That's HALF the price of beer in Thailand.

Beer in Thailand is NOT cheap ! ( I compared like-for-like. Pub in UK vs Bar in Thailand.)

One does have to wonder who is working the money markets here. Certainly it will have an effect on tourism.

Thailand used to be an expensive place to fly to, but that was offset by accommodation, food and entertainment which were cheap. That is now generally not the case. It's still expensive to fly here, but accommodation, food etc are now approaching European prices.

With the global economic downturn, people are going to look at shorter-haul flights to the sun and will save significant amounts of money in doing so.

If you keep aiming at your feet, sooner or later, you're gonna blow your toes off.

I don't know where you live but prices of beer in Thailand have been much the same for 10 years and 70 Baht is 'cheap'. Try a 'decent' hotel and you will pay 190 for a 330ml bottle. But why compare 'swilling' prices to Thai tourist bars as a pint comes off a 'hog' or a keg and a vast difference in cost and without the glass, label or cap wrapped around the bubbly. An 18 gallon keg works out about 300 Baht a gallon in UK so you are being ripped off blind for you 'pint'. Compare apples with apples and you may find it much the same and there are no short skirted bar-flys in your pub you can take home to play with under 50kgs a cheek!

[Mauric42]

Well, Markg wrote a well thought-out post about prices of beer in UK vs Thailand (I'd confirm his conclusions by the way). Then there was a post about "bar-flys in your pub" or something. Can this be translated into English, please ? I didn't understand what point he was trying to make.

This is really no good News to the Foreigners currently living in Thailand. But do they even know that this affects the Tourist and all the Exports.

in this High Season they really need to put the Thai Baht down. Else next Year no one is going to come NO more.

his is great news for us expatriates who live here and work here. We can now afford holidays in the UK and US. Tourists still find Thailand very cheap and are flocking here. Ever had a beer in a Pub in Oz or UK? Three times the price of here.

Am recently back in Thailand after a holiday in the UK. The average price of a pint of bitter in pubs i went in was 2 pounds. Thats about 100 baht a pint.

The average price in a bar in Phuket (NOT in a 7/11 etc) would be about 70 baht for a 330ml bottle. Thats about 1.50 for about half a pint. Or close to 3 pounds a pint.

Cheapest pint i had in the UK was 1.50 in a city centre pub right next to Harvey Nichols. That's HALF the price of beer in Thailand.

Beer in Thailand is NOT cheap ! ( I compared like-for-like. Pub in UK vs Bar in Thailand.)

One does have to wonder who is working the money markets here. Certainly it will have an effect on tourism.

Thailand used to be an expensive place to fly to, but that was offset by accommodation, food and entertainment which were cheap. That is now generally not the case. It's still expensive to fly here, but accommodation, food etc are now approaching European prices.

With the global economic downturn, people are going to look at shorter-haul flights to the sun and will save significant amounts of money in doing so.

If you keep aiming at your feet, sooner or later, you're gonna blow your toes off.

I don't know where you live but prices of beer in Thailand have been much the same for 10 years and 70 Baht is 'cheap'. Try a 'decent' hotel and you will pay 190 for a 330ml bottle. But why compare 'swilling' prices to Thai tourist bars as a pint comes off a 'hog' or a keg and a vast difference in cost and without the glass, label or cap wrapped around the bubbly. An 18 gallon keg works out about 300 Baht a gallon in UK so you are being ripped off blind for you 'pint'. Compare apples with apples and you may find it much the same and there are no short skirted bar-flys in your pub you can take home to play with under 50kgs a cheek!

[markg]

I don't know where you live but prices of beer in Thailand have been much the same for 10 years and 70 Baht is 'cheap'. Try a 'decent' hotel and you will pay 190 for a 330ml bottle. But why compare 'swilling' prices to Thai tourist bars as a pint comes off a 'hog' or a keg and a vast difference in cost and without the glass, label or cap wrapped around the bubbly. An 18 gallon keg works out about 300 Baht a gallon in UK so you are being ripped off blind for you 'pint'. Compare apples with apples and you may find it much the same and there are no short skirted bar-flys in your pub you can take home to play with under 50kgs a cheek!

I was replying to someone who intimated that beer in Thailand is cheap. I maintain that it isn't cheap. I compared prices for a pub in the UK with a pretty standard bar in Thailand. I'm sure a 330ml bottle in a nice hotel in Thailand can hit 200 baht, but that isnt the point. The point is when you compare UK to Thailand 'standard' pubs/bars, the UK is cheaper for beer. And the reason i was making the point is that Thailand isn't a 'cheap' place to visit like it used to be. Tourists would put up with the expense and 15 - 20 hours travel time because of the cultural experience, and could offset the price/aggravation of getting here, against cheap food, drinks, accommodation and entertainment. That isnt the case anymore.

Tourism is a big part of Thai GDP. It's a big deal. It's important. The old European markets for tourists are being affected by a hike in prices and the strength of the Thai baht. People are going to be looking closer to home for their 2 weeks in the sun holidays.........and the problem with that is, they may re-discover places in Europe that they'd forgotten about in their pursuit for exotic culture. Meaning that next year, they may stay in Europe too.

The Thai baht is way too strong and i just cant figure out why.

[basinboy]

The stong Baht does seem to confound logic, but it has to be remembered that some currencies are very weak at the moment. The pain UK ex pats are feeling can only partly be blamed on THB.

A comparisun of the Australian dollar (AUD) against GBP is telling:

2007 Full year average AUD = GBP 0.4204

2008 Full year average AUD = GBP 0.4620

2009 Full year average AUD = GBP 0.5160

2010 YTD average AUD = GBP 0.5860

Edited September 7, 2010 by basinboy

[Thai at Heart]

The Thai baht is way too strong and i just cant figure out why.

All the other major currencies are down the sh****er, Thai GDP is racing along, global oil prices are stable and as the OP says, foreign capital is coming into the stock market.

To all the nay sayers here who believe that the government is trying to keep the baht strong, I believe you are sorely mis-informed.

[SlyAnimal]

Yep beer definitely isn't "cheap: in Thailand, I think people just get a little bit caught up in the "Wow THB is soo small compared to my home currency!!"

To give a few examples:

In New Zealand - Carlsberg is currently $18.99 a dozen, or roughly $1.60 (33THB) per 330ml bottle.

That's on special at the supermarket, and by the dozen, but there's always specials around that mark (Cheaper even if you're buying NZ beers not Australian) and can't buy singles (Likewise not sure how easy it is to buy by the dozen in Thailand)

In Thailand - I think from memory, that it was around 60-90THB for a 700ml bottle of beer in Thailand from a 7/11, depending on which brand you were buying. That's just from memory though, those in Thailand atm could probably give a better number, and maybe one for 330ml bottles too.

Drinking in a pub is also usually around the same price, although it depends a lot on the pub. As a tourist, I'd usually be in Thai touristy pubs thus paying a premium price, which is on par with a typical Auckland Viaduct bar. Likewise gogo bars are about on par with strip clubs. I assume therefore, that a bar in the suburbs / countryside, would be about on par with a NZ country pub or sports club.

So it's around the same price, to drink in NZ as it is to drink in Thailand (Although NZ is looking at reforming alcohol laws which could cause increases to prices in the next 1-2 years).

Also drinking in:

Cambodia. - On Bar street in Siem Reap, I was being charged $1-2 US (30-60THB) for Angkor beers in a pub. Although in Phnom Penh I was paying around $4US (120THB) per 700ml Hollander at a fancy discotech.

Laos - In Vang Vieng I think it worked out to around $2NZ (40THB) per 700ml Beer Lao, while in a pub on the riverside. I didn't drink anywhere else, but I think Beerlao was around 20-30k Kip (80-120THB) from hotel minibar for 700ml Beer Lao.

Malaysia - Malaysia was expensive to drink in. I think it worked out I was paying around $6 Aus (150+ THB) a pint in a bar (not happyhour), although that was Carlsberg not a local beer.

Just for a bit of a comparison (Oh yeah I didn't include any happyhour prices, since some of them are just nuts depending on the bar you're at. e.g. I remember a gogo bar having 50THB for beers during happyhour. But they obviously weren't intending on making money from the beer itself). Likewise I could have been at particularly cheap / expensive pubs, it's hard to tell when you don't know what the "going rate" is for a beer.

For me, the THB going up is fine, since I'm planning on heading there to teach soon anyway. Although it's going to be a bit of a pain if it goes up much more in the next few months before I actually start earning THB, since I'll have to convert $NZ until then.

Edited September 7, 2010 by SlyAnimal

[electau]

1 USD = 32THB. 1THB = $0.031250

1 USD = 31THB. 1THB = $0.032258

1 USD = 30THB. 1THB = $0.033333

1 USD = 25THB. 1THB = $0.040000

7.5% growth in GDP? In what sectors of the economy? What is the inflation rate?

3% should be the norm and inflation below 3%

[creck]

The equity markets may be about to fall but one thing is very clear. The gold market will not, and seems to explain the difference between the ‘Atlantic’ major currencies and the pacific ‘local’ currencies.

In USD, GBP, EUR gold has risen by nearly one third.

In THB, SGD, MYR gold has risen by about one tenth.

(That choice of local currencies just happens to be what I am interested in - but I doubt if they are unique)

So our currencies will appear to rise against what are considered the stable currencies, but I think the ‘time of the pacific’ is arriving. This will not correct completely. Generally, our economies are stronger than before, especially compared with the old world. I wish I’d bought more gold with Pounds/ Euros when my wife advised it!

[creck]

The equity markets may be about to fall but one thing is very clear. The gold market will not, and seems to explain the difference between the 'Atlantic' major currencies and the pacific 'local' currencies.

In USD, GBP, EUR gold has risen by nearly one third.

In THB, SGD, MYR gold has risen by about one tenth.

(That choice of local currencies just happens to be what I am interested in - but I doubt if they are unique)

So our currencies will appear to rise against what are considered the stable currencies, but I think the 'time of the pacific' is arriving. This will not correct completely. Generally, our economies are stronger than before, especially compared with the old world. I wish I'd bought more gold with Pounds/ Euros when my wife advised it!

My rates are over approx the last 12 months

[Thai at Heart]

Where it ends is the issue.

Some of these movements against the USD/GBP are very quick at the moment. Maybe it will come back a bit. I think 30 is a very strong psychological number for the Thai government.

But overall, with Thai GDP going ok, and the rest of the world printing money as quick as it can, I can't understand why people think that the Thai baht should be valued at 40 to the USD for time immemorial. The USD/GBP and Euro economies are in an absolute mess, and a double dip recession cannot be ruled out. They have spent all their ammunition to fight this problem. What bet a Greek or Irish default? When will the US finally cut it's deficit, and as for the UK, well, how long can the coalition last? There is NO real GOOD NEWS coming out of any of these economies, certainly not enough for anyone to hang their hat and say that the problems have been solved.

I still remember the heady days of 25 to the USD with the central bank spending hand over fist to keep it there. This time is the other way around, and one cannot help but see the irony of the west lecturing Asia about crony capitalism and suspicious lending particularly for construction 14 years ago, only for the exact same thing to happen over there.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_foreign_exchange_reserves

12 Thailand 153,000 Aug 2010[10]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Thailand

Reserves of foreign exchange and gold: $100 billion (February 2008)

And who says that they haven't been accumulating dollars to try to halt the rise of the baht.

Edited September 7, 2010 by Thai at Heart

[electau]

A high THB/USD rate importers lose.

A low THB/USD rate exporters gain.

The THB should float against a basket of currencies, USD, Euro,Yen, Yuan, SGD, AUD etc.

And Thailand relies heavily on exports so a lower THB would be benificial.