Bangkok May Be Uninhabitable In Seven Years

[souvenirdeparis]

@Tigs

Where on the Proff's CV does it indicate that he is even remotely Scientifically qualified ?

%%

Cambridge is cool on a cv .

[simon43]

Ah Prometheus, you clearly are unfamiliar with my British wit and dry humour

I'm fully aware of what 'DIC' is. My humourous comment could have been better explained to people of your ilk by adding that I am happy that I got my MSc and Diploma from University College, London (DUC).

Simon

[souvenirdeparis]

@asiawatcher

Bangkok does not have to fear too much about earthquakes as it is built on a mud flat which absorbs most of it.

%%

my best option for a cheap thrill long ago was planting a banger in a fat mud pool ; very satisfactory if you run fast enough , or you shirt will absorb most of it .

( works wonderfully with fresh kwai dung )

Edited September 18, 2010 by souvenirdeparis

[canuckamuck]

Bangkok does not have to fear too much about earthquakes as it is built on a mud flat which absorbs most of it.

Being a zero above sea level is an issue.

Global weather changes and FX are not all that it seems and tsunamis are not likely this side of the Andaman or in the South China Sea. If we are subject to Tsunamis here then you can write off nearly every surrounding country facing water of any description.

But rest assured if Bangkok keeps building and interrupting the substrata's as they are through pile driving, then there will be a venice of the East on future maps. Bangkok (and Thailand) needs to address the water drainage systems that are at seal level already and sinking which is exactly what causes the flooding - there is nowhere for the water to run.

Sorry but being built on a mud flat is a serious problem when the shaking causes liquefaction in substrata. A big one would do serious damage.

[BlackJack]

now lets not get confused

the earths axis is shifted, global warming and carbon emmissions are not the same

weather patterns change earth quakes and tsunami's

the earth has been doing all the above for billions of years

Bangkok is sinking because of physics

soft mud natural waterways built over with monster concrete jungles

all that concrete pushing down has to push the water somewhere else

for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction

[Jimi007]

Well, it certainly reads like a fairy story, all right.

There is a certain sort of person who needs to make themselves feel important and meaningful by pretending to have discovered the latest Oh No We're Doomed scenario, and this fellow fits the profile perfectly.

Your response is uninformed, Rick. You may be skeptical of Dr Art-ong's views, but he doesn't need to make himself important.

This is his CV:

Prof. Dr. Art-Ong Jumsai Na Ayudhya, Thailand

Name: Dr. Art-ong Jumsai Na Ayudhya

Contact Address: 99 Mu 2, Lamnarai, Chaibadan, Lopburi 15130, Thailand

Email:

Education

• B.A. (Hons), M.A. Mechanical Sciences, Cambridge, U.K.
• D.I.C., Ph.D. Communications, Imperial College of Science and Technology, London University
• Ph.D. Education – Curriculum and Instruction, Faculty of Education, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand

Past Experiences

1. Senior Lecture at the Faculty of Engineering, Chulalongkorn University
2. Deputy Dean of Students AffairsDirector of the Institute of Scientific and Technological Research of Thailand
3. Member of Parliament (Elected three times)Deputy Chairman of the House Committee on Education
4. Secretary of the House Committee on Science, Technology and Environment
5. Executive Director, Asia Pacific Parliamentary Union secretary to the Foreign Minister
6. Senior Lecturer, Faculty of Engineering, Chulalongkorn University
7. Special Lecturer at all the Universities in Thailand
8. Training of teachers in Human Values Education in many countries in all continents
9. Three times elected Member of Parliament
10. Elected Member of the House of Senate

Special Experiences

Participated in NASA's Vlking Space Project in the design of the automatic landing device.

Expert in the National Research Council on rockets for Use in the Artificial Rain Making Project

Present Position

• Director of the Institute of Sathya Sai Education, Thailand
• Chief Administrator of the Sathya Sai School, Thailand
• Official Trainer of Teachers for the Ministry of Education in Human Values Education

Awards

• Top Scientist of the Year for Invention that is of benefit to the Country, 1987
• Philosopher of Thai Wisdom, Naresuan University, 2005
• Best Book of the Year – Path to Peace – for children age 12 to 18 years, 2007
• Knight Commander of the Order of the White Elephant
• Knight Commander of the Order of the Crown of Thailand
• Knight Grand Cordon of the Order of the White Elephant
• Knight Grand Cordon of the Order of the Crown of Thailand

Publications

1. 1991 Handbook for Teachers in Education Human Values
2. 1997 Five Human Values and Human Excellence: Integration of Human Values in Mathematics and Sciences

Hum, I don't see a degree in Geology, Physics, Climatology or anything that applies to what he what he is spouting on about... Communications and education degrees, aren't really applicable to plate tectonics or climate change, are they? I majored in electronic communications, but I know I can't predict tsunamis!

[Jimi007]

Bangkok does not have to fear too much about earthquakes as it is built on a mud flat which absorbs most of it.

Being a zero above sea level is an issue.

Global weather changes and FX are not all that it seems and tsunamis are not likely this side of the Andaman or in the South China Sea. If we are subject to Tsunamis here then you can write off nearly every surrounding country facing water of any description.

But rest assured if Bangkok keeps building and interrupting the substrata's as they are through pile driving, then there will be a venice of the East on future maps. Bangkok (and Thailand) needs to address the water drainage systems that are at seal level already and sinking which is exactly what causes the flooding - there is nowhere for the water to run.

Sorry but being built on a mud flat is a serious problem when the shaking causes liquefaction in substrata. A big one would do serious damage.

Correct! Liquefaction is what causes the most damage to buildings built on it. I was maybe 10 miles from the epicenter of a 7.1 in California. The most damage occurred in San Francisco more than 80 miles away because that area was built on fill land (like Bangkok) and prone to liquefaction!

[PatLogan]

Oh dear....oh dear....oh dear..... we are doomed.

http://www.ted.com/t...rob_dunbar.html

Very interesting video.

On a side note, Bangkok the second most polluted city in the world? According to which listing? . I can think of... at least cities I visited in China only that I believe are more polluted.

[mojo80]

Good news is bangkok would have just got 3g working!

[BlackJack]

John Holdren, Obama's Science Advisor, is urging the public to stop using the phrase "global warming" and replace it with "global climate disruption." [smart move for the mythmakers, because the reality of global cooling becomes more evident with each passing month, and the phrase "climate change" is not scary enough to justify the massive taxes and government controls these people have in mind.]

Daily Mail 2010 Sep 17 (Cached)

[RickBradford]

John Holdren, Obama's Science Advisor, is urging the public to stop using the phrase "global warming" and replace it with "global climate disruption." [smart move for the mythmakers, because the reality of global cooling becomes more evident with each passing month, and the phrase "climate change" is not scary enough to justify the massive taxes and government controls these people have in mind.]

Daily Mail 2010 Sep 17 (Cached)

Now they're into the world of TLAs, they've truly blown it -- who could care less about something called GCD?

[OzMick]

There is nothing constant except change.

Homo Sapiens is the most successful creature on this planet because it is the most adaptable.

[visions]

Maybe if the Politicians start planning now.......its a great chance of creating another Hub

Bangkok the HUB of........................ Ummmmmm Im sure some more enlightened posters can dream up a beauty???

Oh, sorry I forgot. Thai politicians are incapable of planning anything...........except how to line their own pockets

[Tigs]

Maybe the Proff has untold Rai of land he is trying to sell outside Bangkok for the building of an alternative city, and he is trying to get a better price.

Whatever, his claims are ridiculous, I would love him to come and present in this area, ... I have a few questions for him!

[balo]

It's soon 2012 and if you look back in the history we had some mild winters in Europe when the activity on the sun was higher.

So I believe there is a connection with the 11 year cycle.

[NikhilBkk]

Please check on this Professor's background......he is a devout follower of this cult leader called Sathya Sai Baba in India (goggle search this cult leader). Dr Art-Ong was merely trying to pass around the predictions made by this cult leader. Dr Art-Ong is very active in the Thailand Chapter of this cult movement and this cult leader is a total fraud. (I should know as my parents were some of his earliest followers in the 1960s and they help establish the Singapore chapters. I have seen this fraud cult leader many times when I was young and I totally despise him.

[gregb]

I have a degree in Computational Neural Systems, done several projects on the Keck Telescope in Hawaii, and my flight instructor from JPL was the Chief Scientist on the Cassini mission to Saturn, so I am obviously singularly qualified to tell everyone that you should vacate this planet at once as a black hole is about to swallow up our entire sector of the galaxy. Take my word for it. Do you dare doubt me? Can you afford to scoff at someone of my obvious credentials?

Unfortunately, what our well intentioned idiot Dr. Art-ong failed to consider, is that the time constants for carbon on all the global warming models are on the order of 100 years. Our atmosphere is a huge integrator, and this means that any action we take today, anything at all, is going to have no appreciable on the planet for decades. Actions I take now may help my grandchildren, but if Bangkok is going to be destroyed in 7 years, then it doesn't matter what we do. We might as well have an orgy of tree cutting and party hard because ain't nothing gonna stop that now.

Alarmists like Dr. Art-ong do not help anyone when they spout their crazy and wild hysteria. Certainly not legitimate climate scientists who are trying to refine models that will help them understand the reality of a very complicated subject. Unfortunately, global warming has been taken over by the religious zealots, and the only way to get funding any more is to continuously come out with ever more grandiose conclusions of disaster. Anyone who says "my model shows that things likely won't be nearly that bad" doesn't get funded next time around. After all, that conclusion isn't urgent now, is it? That doesn't mean climate scientists lie, but they necessarily have to self select for more extreme viewpoints if they want to keep food on the table. Many climate scientists will actually admit this in private, as long as they are sure you are not going to call them out, because that could have a devastating impact on their careers. In public and professionally, they have to support a bias towards the most extreme outcomes. That is where the money is.

There is much evidence for global warming. But smart people still argue on the cause and effect. Consensus does not make science. It makes religion. Hypothesis that can be proven or disproven make science. The anthropogenic global warming crowd is having a hard time coming up with a test that can prove them right or wrong, so instead they attack with religious zealotry. It is truly sad when even scientists themselves forget what science is all about. And it allows every whacko like Dr. Art-ong who drank the Koolaid to make even more ridiculous statements and have the congregation meekly accept his outrageous claims.

Personally, I think you can not stop climate change, so you better concentrate on 2 things. 1) Understand what the likely consequences are when the temperature rises, and 2) figure out what you can do to mitigate the changes. Wasting money on trying to come up with ways to stop it is just foolish. And Dr. Art-ong's theories should be given exactly the same level of credibility that my galaxy eating black hole warning does. Sounds like we are similarly qualified in these respective areas.

Edited September 18, 2010 by gregb

[rubl]

I have a degree in Computational Neural Systems, done several projects on the Keck Telescope in Hawaii, and my flight instructor from JPL was the Chief Scientist on the Cassini mission to Saturn, so I am obviously singularly qualified to tell everyone that you should vacate this planet at once as a black hole is about to swallow up our entire sector of the galaxy. Take my word for it. Do you dare doubt me? Can you afford to scoff at someone of my obvious credentials?

Rumour has it that after Beowulf Shaeffer reported this the puppeteers started to flee our galaxy cowards as they are.

[Xangsamhua]

Please check on this Professor's background......he is a devout follower of this cult leader called Sathya Sai Baba in India (goggle search this cult leader). Dr Art-Ong was merely trying to pass around the predictions made by this cult leader. Dr Art-Ong is very active in the Thailand Chapter of this cult movement and this cult leader is a total fraud. (I should know as my parents were some of his earliest followers in the 1960s and they help establish the Singapore chapters. I have seen this fraud cult leader many times when I was young and I totally despise him.

I knew that Dr Art-ong was a follower of Sai Baba, but didn't think much about it. Today I have started following up and there are a number of 7-minute interviews with Dr Art-ong regarding this. Though I wonder at the depth of his faith in Sai Baba, there seems nothing malign in it and Art-ong comes across as a gentle and decent man. http://vdo.palungjit...-Jumsai--1-of-8

Sai Baba is a controversial figure, but those interested can follow-up through the internet if they want to.

Art-ong's projections for Bangkok must be evaluated in terms of the evidence for them and his scientific authority to make them. It's interesting that you suggest he is merely parroting the message of Sai Baba, who has only a "spiritual" claim to authority. It'll be very interesting to revisit this thread in seven years (if we're still here) and see what has happened.

Incidentally, I still believe the Sathya Sai School in Lopburi, of which Dr Art-ong is the head, is an exemplary one. In my 45 years as a professional educator I have found that, often, schools sponsored by non-mainstream religious movements turn out to be exemplary. The Ananda Marga school in Bangkok is one that comes to mind http://www.bangkokpo...positive-aspect . I have found in Australia and New Zealand schools run by evangelical Christians are generally good, as is the Hare Krishna school in New South Wales. My own background is in State and Catholic education - both mainstream where I come from.

[Xangsamhua]

Unfortunately, what our well intentioned idiot Dr. Art-ong failed to consider, is that the time constants for carbon on all the global warming models are on the order of 100 years. Our atmosphere is a huge integrator, and this means that any action we take today, anything at all, is going to have no appreciable on the planet for decades. Actions I take now may help my grandchildren, but if Bangkok is going to be destroyed in 7 years, then it doesn't matter what we do. We might as well have an orgy of tree cutting and party hard because ain't nothing gonna stop that now.

Alarmists like Dr. Art-ong do not help anyone when they spout their crazy and wild hysteria. Certainly not legitimate climate scientists who are trying to refine models that will help them understand the reality of a very complicated subject.

There is much evidence for global warming. But smart people still argue on the cause and effect. Consensus does not make science. It makes religion. Hypothesis that can be proven or disproven make science. The anthropogenic global warming crowd is having a hard time coming up with a test that can prove them right or wrong, so instead they attack with religious zealotry. It is truly sad when even scientists themselves forget what science is all about. And it allows every whacko like Dr. Art-ong who drank the Koolaid to make even more ridiculous statements and have the congregation meekly accept his outrageous claims.

Your posting is very interesting and you appear to be very knowledgeable, but I think your message would be more effective if you didn't use such emotional and disrespectful language.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm not a fan of verbal bullying.

[RickBradford]

The Warmies relentlessly re-brand 'global warming' as 'climate change' and 'global climate disruption', maybe soon it will be CENGLOBWARMSEALEVSTORMDISASTROPHEXTINCT.

Truly, it is said of these serial scaremongers:

"As a dog returneth to his vomit, so a fool returneth to his folly." - Proverbs 26.11

Edited September 18, 2010 by RickBradford

[rubl]

The Warmies relentlessly re-brand 'global warming' as 'climate change' and 'global climate disruption', maybe soon it will be CENGLOBWARMSEALEVSTORMDISASTROPHEXTINCT.

Truly, it is said:

�As a dog returneth to his vomit, so a fool returneth to his folly.� - Proverbs 26.11

The Coldies are not much better methinks

[Tigs]

Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm not a fan of verbal bullying.

And what exactly would you call it that Dr Art-ong is engaging in? Verbal bullying, verbal terrorising, verbal terrorism, take your pick but it is extremely irresponsible at best. gregb is harsh but fair! No more than the Dr deserves.

gregb

I am sure the black hole will come in a few billion years, so your prediction will be accurate one day. But as for Cassini, now there is an interesting little project that could have all sorts of unexpected (by the masses) effects in it's final 48 hours of life!

[naiharn]

Your response is uninformed, Rick. You may be skeptical of Dr Art-ong's views, but he doesn't need to make himself important.

This is his CV:

...

(huge list of achievements and pachydermic awards)

So this chap appears to be at the very top level of Thai scientific repute. Let's examine some of his claims:

(Nation report follows)

I wouldn't rely on a Nation journalist's report as a stick to beat Dr Art-ong with, but in any case my reference to his CV was in response to an unresearched suggestion that he was just trying to make himself important.

I don't know how reliable Dr Art-ong is on the life-expectancy of Bangkok as a habitable city. He's an engineer with a PhD from the University of London and was with NASA for a period of time, so I suspect he does consider evidence and is not just a doomsday crank (but he could be, I suppose).

The fact that he has a number of Royal awards with names that can be sniggered at eurocentrically as quaint oriental affectations does not actually diminish his credibility.

Perhaps his expectations of a Bangkokian inundation are eccentric, or overstated, though he's not the only one to have warned on this. Putting an imminent timeline to it may be a spur to the government and Bangkok authorities to get down to business on the matter. Dr Art-ong has status, and therefore clout in Thai leadership circles. My interest in him, however, is not for his geophysics, but for his humanist and holistic education philosophy and its implementation at his school in Lopburi.

I wouldn't rely on a Nation journalist's report as a stick to beat Dr Art-ong with

Well I felt I was allowed to make the assumption that the Nation got the main points of the learned man's presentation correct: polar bears becoming extinct in 10 years, huge sea level rises, earthquakes, tsunamis etc.

but in any case my reference to his CV was in response to an unresearched suggestion that he was just trying to make himself important.

Yes and it was a very useful piece of information revealing just how little scientific background he has, especially in fields directly related to climate change, earthquakes etc.

He's an engineer with a PhD from the University of London

??? Do you mean he has a PhD in engineering from Uni of London? Patently not true.

Perhaps his expectations of a Bangkokian inundation are eccentric, or overstated

do you think so? And any comment on the earthquakes and tsunamis?

Putting an imminent timeline to it may be a spur to the government and Bangkok authorities to get down to business on the matter.

You mean exaggerating the problem and scaring people might bring about a particular course of action that, presumably, you think is the correct one. Rather than focusing on choosing, calmly and rationally, the best one, whatever that might be? Here's a clue. What happens in 7, 10, 15 years when his predictions have been proven completely false, and some critics (maybe some unthankful person here) reminds everyone of these predictions. Do you think that is going to 'spur' the government into real and lasting change to overcome what may (or may not be) the problem of climate change? I suspect it would have a devastating effect. Critics would rightly present these forecasts as examples of scaremongering and doomsaying, completely exaggerating the problem, so let's pull the plug on whatever action is in progress!

Dr Art-ong has status, and therefore clout in Thai leadership circles.

A worrying thought.

My interest in him, however, is not for his geophysics, but for his humanist and holistic education philosophy and its implementation at his school in Lopburi.

Then I'd suggest supporting and defending him on those matters, not on his 'scientific' pronouncements.

[Soi Sauce]

With a degree in Geography, I think I am more qualified than this engineer, comms wizz( must be a friend of someone) and teacher to speak about this.

He has no in-depth knowledge of wot he's mouthing off about.

Pls, someone. Tell me why anyone should listen to him more than your local somtum seller.

[Xangsamhua]

Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm not a fan of verbal bullying.

And what exactly would you call it that Dr Art-ong is engaging in? Verbal bullying, verbal terrorising, verbal terrorism, take your pick but it is extremely irresponsible at best. gregb is harsh but fair! No more than the Dr deserves.

I think it would be "verbal terrorism" if he had ideas of flooding the place himself.

To accuse him of "alarmism" may be quite valid, especially if he doesn't have sufficient evidence, but presumably he thinks he has. It seems he's been warning people along these lines for quite a few years. No one's panicked yet.

[Xangsamhua]

My interest in him, however, is not for his geophysics, but for his humanist and holistic education philosophy and its implementation at his school in Lopburi.

Then I'd suggest supporting and defending him on those matters, not on his 'scientific' pronouncements.

You're quite right. The only reason I popped his CV into the thread was in response to someone who suggested he just wanted to make himself look important.

Re the Nation's reliability, well, we just don't know.

Anyway, I hope the professor's wrong, especially if he's basing his prediction on religious beliefs, as another poster suggested.

[Tigs]

I think it would be "verbal terrorism" if he had ideas of flooding the place himself.

To accuse him of "alarmism" may be quite valid, especially if he doesn't have sufficient evidence, but presumably he thinks he has. It seems he's been warning people along these lines for quite a few years. No one's panicked yet.

Well I am not really sure he needs to flood the place himself to actually qualify. There is still no satisfactory definition world-wide of Terrorism, but it is normally politically or religiously motivated.

In it's basic sense

the use of violence and threats to intimidate or coerce, esp. for political purposes. 2. the state of fear and submission produced by terrorism or terrorization.

So with the prefix 'verbal', then I think he is guilty as charged The use of threats (which they essentially are) to intimidate or coerce, esp for political purposes. Whether that is for more Government funding or to help along a hitherto unheard of Government policy that will surface in time to come, we don't know, but it appears political, as does all of the AGW theories. Al Gore and his mates can't count the money that is pouring in quick enough over the scandalous 'Carbon Trading' scam that was set up because of scaremongering by people like Dr Art-ong.. no one needs to panic over the words of one man, but remember when those words are used as a political tool to reinforce and consolidate other 'messages' we receive the overall effect can be massive, as we saw with the birth of the new religion, AGW.

I believe we are on the same track with this one and we are discussing semantics, but that is good sometimes, it's the sort of thing to do over a beer in the pub!

Edited September 18, 2010 by Tigs

[geriatrickid]

I'm going to stay out of the global warming discussion, but like many in here I was taken aback by the 7 year prediction. Whoa, what's up with this guy, I thought, but then I realized the guy knows human psychology. People need something to understand. Attaching a milestone to the timeline let's regular people like me get a feel for the situation. The use of a date, focuses attention. It's done regularly in public health when people need hope. For example, when the H1N1 pandemic was starting, there was panic in some countries. When will a vaccine be ready, how long until the flu his the big cities and people drop dead? The public health agencies gave a timeline to calm the public and to help otheragencies plan and respond. I think it's the same thing here with the 7 years. it's a nice number, impressing the need for action, but not too low as to encourage denial or cause panic.

Just my opinion, but I think it puts the number in perspective. I don't think anyone would pick the number in the office pool as to when Bangkok goes under.

[trogers]

Warning that temperatures would rise by approximately 4 degrees Celsius' date=' Ajong said polar bears would be extinct in less than 10 years and the seas would rise by six metres.

[/quote']

Seven years? How long will it take to build all the planned mass transit lines? And if part of these lines are to be underground like the MRT, woooh...

I am keeping my 25-year old car and trade it in for a boat 7 years from how...