Thai Democrats Could Win General Elections If Poll Held Now

[webfact]

Democrats could win if poll held now

By The Nation

If a general election was held today, slightly more than half of respondents surveyed by Abac Poll said they would vote for the Democrat Party to form the next government, according to survey results released yesterday.

The survey showed both the ruling Democrat Party and the Opposition Pheu Thai Party would not win enough seats to allow either to form a one-party government, Abac Poll director Noppadon Kannikar said.

Noppadon said the smaller parties would decide who would get to form the next government if a general election was held now.

A total of 4,312 respondents took part in the survey, conducted from September 1-25.

Of 4,312 respondents, 50.7 said they had decided to support the Democrats, 33 per cent said they would opt for Pheu Thai and 16 per cent preferred other parties.

An analysis of the survey found that of total respondents who supported the Democrats, the largest group (56 per cent) were over 50 years old, while 42 per cent of respondents under 20 also supported the Democrats.

Company employees are the largest group of Democrat supporters (nearly 58 per cent).

Of total state officials and state enterprise workers, 48 per cent said they preferred the Democrats and 40.5 per cent said they would vote for Pheu Thai.

Some 12 per cent said liked other parties.

In terms of income, respondents earning over Bt15,000 was the largest group that backed the Democrats (59 per cent), while 45.5 per cent of respondents earning less than Bt5,000 also said they would vote for the Democrats.

Of total respondents, 58 per cent of respondents with a bachelor degree, and 57 per cent with more than one degree said they favoured the Democrats.

The survey found that those who reside in cities or towns prefer the Democrats while those who live in rural areas prefer Pheu Thai.

About 53 per cent of urban dwellers said they would support the Democrats along with 49 per cent of people who live in rural areas.

The number of respondents who live in rural areas who said they would vote for Pheu Thai stood at 36 per cent, along with 29 per cent of those who live in urban areas.

Of total residents in the Northeast, the largest group (49 per cent) said they would vote for Pheu Thai, while 32 per cent would vote for the Democrats and 19 per cent would back other parties.

The Democrats won support from more than half of total respondents in the Central and South regions. But support in the North was split, with 44 per cent saying they would vote for the Democrats and 42 per cent saying they would vote for Pheu Thai.

Of total Bangkok residents, 46 per cent would vote for the Democrats and 37 per cent said Pheu Thai, while 17 per cent preferred other parties.

-- The Nation 2010-09-27

[SamritT]

Best news I ever heard. Dem never won an election (where they are a majority) in history.

[Capealava]

With the military backing them with guns sure they will win.

[whybother]

With the military backing them with guns sure they will win.

In any of the last 4 elections was there any evidence of the army influencing the way people voted. I think there was more evidence of the reds 'encouraging' people to vote a certain way than there was for the army.

[pookiki]

Then the democrats should hold elections now! But don't hold your breath.

[hammered]

Nobody is going to hold an election while a disolution is outstanding. PPP refused to do it before and the Dems this time. A disolution of party after the house is disolved leaves every MP in the disolved party unable to contest the election.

If the Dems survive Abhisit may go for an early election while BJT and PTP are not ready. However, the establishment may not like that gamble which may increase disolution pressure. If the Dems are disolved many expect a coup although it cant be ruled out that a new agreement between Dems who will survive and the other coalition allies has already been worked out.

[RedNIvar]

Best news I ever heard. Dem never won an election (where they are a majority) in history.

If this were true, I'm sure that the Democrats will be calling for elections ASAP. With a possibility of winning the election out right, they should do it now.

Just out of curiosity was this survey done in Bangkok only, or did it cover the whole of Thailand?

I suspect it was only in Bangkok and the Nation is taking the opportunity to spread it's pro Dem propaganda. If there was any truth to this poll, the Dem's would be calling for elections now.

[Buchholz]

Based on an interpretation of the various percentages presented, an aggregate picture of the typical Democrat Party voter could be described as:

more frequently encountered than a PTP voter, wiser, more often employed, more likely to be a government worker, more likely to make 15K baht a month, smarter, could almost equally be either a rural or urban dweller, and who would be more likely to be encountered in the North than a PTP voter.

Some interesting confirmations and contradictions to a few of the frequently encountered postulations on the forum.

p.s. wiser refers to the preference from those "over 50 years old" and smarter refers to the those "with more than one degree". It's admitted that neither of those are the absolute or the definitive description to the terms selected which are arbitrary and subjective.

[Buchholz]

Best news I ever heard. Dem never won an election (where they are a majority) in history.

If this were true, I'm sure that the Democrats will be calling for elections ASAP. With a possibility of winning the election out right, they should do it now.

Just out of curiosity was this survey done in Bangkok only, or did it cover the whole of Thailand?

I suspect it was only in Bangkok and the Nation is taking the opportunity to spread it's pro Dem propaganda. If there was any truth to this poll, the Dem's would be calling for elections now.

Apparently you don't realize that the poll was not conducted by The Nation.

Also, the news on polls are covered by all the local English and Thai language media outlets, not just The Nation.

If you read the poll, you can tell it covered the entire nation and not just Bangkok. A clue to that reality is pretty easily obtained by such passages as:

The Democrats won support from more than half of total respondents in the Central and South regions. But support in the North was split, with 44 per cent saying they would vote for the Democrats and 42 per cent saying they would vote for Pheu Thai.

Abhisit said yesterday there's a possibility for new elections to be held early next year. Dissolution of Parliament and new elections are rarely determined to be implemented based upon public opinion polls.

[KhaoNiaw]

The survey showed both the ruling Democrat Party and the Opposition Pheu Thai Party would not win enough seats to allow either to form a one-party government, Abac Poll director Noppadon Kannikar said.

This is the main point. It has been the case for a long while now, and is unlikely to change much by the time an election arrives.

[whybother]

Best news I ever heard. Dem never won an election (where they are a majority) in history.

If this were true, I'm sure that the Democrats will be calling for elections ASAP. With a possibility of winning the election out right, they should do it now.

Just out of curiosity was this survey done in Bangkok only, or did it cover the whole of Thailand?

I suspect it was only in Bangkok and the Nation is taking the opportunity to spread it's pro Dem propaganda. If there was any truth to this poll, the Dem's would be calling for elections now.

Rarely do governments call elections a FULL YEAR early just based on opinion polls.

[rubl]

The survey showed both the ruling Democrat Party and the Opposition Pheu Thai Party would not win enough seats to allow either to form a one-party government, Abac Poll director Noppadon Kannikar said.

This simply means that a new government would be a coalition most likely.

This would give a few of our members to opportunity to say ridiculous things again like "the Dem's lost, PTP won" (or v.v.), or "loosing party 'buying' MPs from within the elected Government to pervert the choice of the electorate." And I thought the saying was 'Logic, thy name is woman'

[hanuman1]

With the military backing them with guns sure they will win.

In any of the last 4 elections was there any evidence of the army influencing the way people voted. I think there was more evidence of the reds 'encouraging' people to vote a certain way than there was for the army.

Well, the army does influence the way its own soldiers vote. Someone I know who is in the army says he and his peers were given direct orders from their superiors on which way to vote at the last election. Sounds weird? You're in Thailand.

Whilst not so direct, pressure is also put on police and especially government agency workers via a system you might call 'institutional politicization' - a culture of partizanship, if you like. So add together the army, police and government agencies and that's a pretty big pro-Democrat, though anti-Democratic, voting block.

[whybother]

With the military backing them with guns sure they will win.

In any of the last 4 elections was there any evidence of the army influencing the way people voted. I think there was more evidence of the reds 'encouraging' people to vote a certain way than there was for the army.

Well, the army does influence the way its own soldiers vote. Someone I know who is in the army says he and his peers were given direct orders from their superiors on which way to vote at the last election. Sounds weird? You're in Thailand.

Whilst not so direct, pressure is also put on police and especially government agency workers via a system you might call 'institutional politicization' - a culture of partizanship, if you like. So add together the army, police and government agencies and that's a pretty big pro-Democrat, though anti-Democratic, voting block.

There are "red" supporting army and police (probably most of the police) at higher levels. I doubt very much that it would be a top down influence, but more like particular group leaders/superiors etc trying to influence their direct sub-ordinates.

Edited September 27, 2010 by whybother

[Mitker]

The survey showed both the ruling Democrat Party and the Opposition Pheu Thai Party would not win enough seats to allow either to form a one-party government, Abac Poll director Noppadon Kannikar said.

This is the main point. It has been the case for a long while now, and is unlikely to change much by the time an election arrives.

Expect the usual courting game toward the small parties for rent.

[kutjebu]

If a general election was held today, slightly more than half of respondents surveyed by Abac Poll said they would vote for the Democrat Party......

When you believe this,then you believe everything.

[TheBarbarian]

No doubt about it. They can win any election. when you can shoot people in the street you can handle elections too. The question is however ho corrupted the courts are. Will the DP be disbanded under the same rules as TRT and PT or is suddenly the old constitution and not the rubber stamp constitution the rule.

[TheBarbarian]

By the Way if polling agencies were really polling, they would go out to the country side. They would survey Izan and the North. As we all know ABAC and Dusit think that the country is made up out of a maximum of 12 provinces all located in DP land. In and around BKK.,

[whybother]

No doubt about it. They can win any election. when you can shoot people in the street you can handle elections too. The question is however ho corrupted the courts are. Will the DP be disbanded under the same rules as TRT and PT or is suddenly the old constitution and not the rubber stamp constitution the rule.

They would be disbanded under the same rules.

In this case, they have been charged with breaking different rules, and it has yet to be proven that they actually broke those rules.

Red shirt supporters still expect the Democrats to be disbanded just because they have been charged with something, regardless of whether it can be proven they actually did something wrong.

[Phuket Stan]

If a general election was held today, slightly more than half of respondents surveyed by Abac Poll said they would vote for the Democrat Party......

When you believe this,then you believe everything.

Have you done your own nation-wide poll to refute this?

[whybother]

If a general election was held today, slightly more than half of respondents surveyed by Abac Poll said they would vote for the Democrat Party......

When you believe this,then you believe everything.

It's an independent poll. Why wouldn't you believe it?

36% of people voted for the Democrats in the last election, with about the same voting for the PPP. Given the efforts of the PPP / PTP / Red shirts over the last couple of years, maybe a few people have changed their mind towards the Democrats.

Ofcourse, polls mean nothing. Only an election will give a meaningful result. And we have to wait 6 - 12 months for that.

[Buchholz]

If a general election was held today, slightly more than half of respondents surveyed by Abac Poll said they would vote for the Democrat Party

When you believe this,then you believe everything.

We're all anxiously awaiting the publication of the results from the nation-wide Kutjebu Poll.

[Buchholz]

As we all know ABAC and Dusit think that the country is made up out of a maximum of 12 provinces all located in DP land. In and around BKK.,

I hadn't previously known that the "DP land" included:

in the North

so thank you for letting us know.

It seems the areas of "DP" support is growing beyond their traditional locations based on your new information.

[rubl]

No doubt about it. They can win any election. when you can shoot people in the street you can handle elections too. The question is however ho corrupted the courts are. Will the DP be disbanded under the same rules as TRT and PT or is suddenly the old constitution and not the rubber stamp constitution the rule.

Well, well, outspoken as usual.

I don't think Democrats were shooting people in the street. It was amongst others the Army and a few peaceful red-shirts and some unknowns. Only the Army had a legal license by the way. The Army won't participate in the elections though, only registered political parties.

As for disbanding the DP, case still in progress. A few more witnesses to be questioned. The minor case (misspent THB 29 million) seems ludicrous with people wondering why the Dem's wanted receipts. The other case hazy, but more details should emerge soon. Judgment according to current laws and constitution (i.e. 2007 version). No need to speculate on this.

[truethailand]

With the military backing them with guns sure they will win.

In any of the last 4 elections was there any evidence of the army influencing the way people voted. I think there was more evidence of the reds 'encouraging' people to vote a certain way than there was for the army.

In the last 3 years we have seen truly who the army wants in power (if its not them). Failed to disperse the crowd at the airport that cost the country billions of dollars yet were prepared to shoot 100's of people who shut down a shopping district.

[rubl]

With the military backing them with guns sure they will win.

In any of the last 4 elections was there any evidence of the army influencing the way people voted. I think there was more evidence of the reds 'encouraging' people to vote a certain way than there was for the army.

In the last 3 years we have seen truly who the army wants in power (if its not them). Failed to disperse the crowd at the airport that cost the country billions of dollars yet were prepared to shoot 100's of people who shut down a shopping district.

The army didn't do anything when airports were temporarily occupied as the then current government didn't ask them to.

100's of people shot, by the army? Whow, when did that happen ?

[TAWP]

Then the democrats should hold elections now! But don't hold your breath.

Any government that governs via polls are doomed to fail. LBJ tried it...

[animatic]

Nobody is going to hold an election while a disolution is outstanding. PPP refused to do it before and the Dems this time. A disolution of party after the house is disolved leaves every MP in the disolved party unable to contest the election.

If the Dems survive Abhisit may go for an early election while BJT and PTP are not ready. However, the establishment may not like that gamble which may increase disolution pressure. If the Dems are disolved many expect a coup although it cant be ruled out that a new agreement between Dems who will survive and the other coalition allies has already been worked out.

And the reemergence of Sae Deang's daughter running a 'sentimental red martyr party', will further split the PTP rouged base. Add this to the BJT siphoning off PTP MPs. With the growing fear in PTP MP's of siding with anything remotely red, after watching 2 elections go south on them, makes for Ms. S.D. jr. and BJT really putting the tongs too PTP hopes. Plus they are less organized than fishwives.

Certainly the court case holds the key to timing. No question.

Today's moves to make Suthep an MP for Surat Thani is interesting maneuvering. He is a likely shoe in and certainly is a leader, like him or not, in the old school sense.

Edited September 27, 2010 by animatic

[animatic]

Regardless of the army supporting the Dems now,

there has never been a party in power that didn't start with army support.

There ARE some that lost army support,

and that is telling to their avarice, machinations or ineptitude.

[plazot11]

Best news I ever heard. Dem never won an election (where they are a majority) in history.

More Propaganda The Nation headline states:

Democrats could win if poll held now

By The Nation

If a general election was held today, slightly more than half of respondents surveyed by Abac Poll said they would vote for the Democrat Party to form the next government, according to survey results released yesterday.

The next paragraph states:

The survey showed both the ruling Democrat Party and the Opposition Pheu Thai Party would not win enough seats to allow either to form a one-party government, Abac Poll director Noppadon Kannikar said.

My Question is: If the Democrats cannot win enough seats how could they win if a Poll held now ?

In this case why did not The Nation headline state :

Pheu Thai Party could win if poll held now !

Edited September 27, 2010 by plazot11