Thai Baht At Fresh 13-Year High Against Dollar

[Jimi007]

Actually more the baht being propped up for some odd reason. I see BOT probably going back to some pegged currency level because the high baht is going to sink all their exports and close business(s) in Thailand. Then add the sagging tourism industry and you have a major disaster.

Nonsense. The BOT is quite sensibly not joining the race the bottom. If the Baht devalues along with the USD it will mean higher energy and raw materials costs for those very same exporters not to mention the average guy buying electricity, fuel, fertilizer and cooking gas.

Have you seen any of these imported commodities going down in price in comparison the the dollar? Since oil is traded world wide in dollars, one would think gasoline would be less here than in California, the highest priced gasoline in most of the US... What about other imported goods, have they dropped in price? Not that I have seen. So much for theory put into practice... TiT!

[passon]

Back to the real toipic, it may make things more difficult for me if we see 25 Baht or less to the dollar, but I can adjust to it. Unfortunately for others that have retired already, or have some other issues this could be a real hardship, and I do have sympathy for them.

Usara Wilaipich, senior economist at Standard Chartered, said regional strength had its roots in the impact of the global recession, with a loss of confidence in the dollar.

It is part of "the real topic," and some people decided to elaborate the causes of the global recession and how it relates to the loss of confidence in the dollar. We all know how it impacts those who rely on the strength of the dollar, and how it helps those who benefit from its weakness because their earnings are derived in Thai baht, so its fairly natural for people to want to speculate, vent or discuss alternatives to the effects of a strong baht. Therefore this is nothing more than an extension of ideas which becomes part of the real topic. 28 baht to the dollar, which seems very feasible at this point, is unfortunately my breaking point, but I'm happy to hear that you and others can probably sustain yourselves in a 25 baht to the dollar world. I on the other hand will have to pack it in, and that's a pretty sad reality from where I sit! Thailand has been my home for the last 6.5 years...

I meant I don't really have time to continue debating it, but back to the politics momentarily. I just do not think it makes sense to blame one president for the the failings of a multi trillion dollar economy, and that goes for Obama too. But the Democrats have had considerable power in Congress since 2007, and I haven't seem them or President Obama do anything that gives me, and apparently others, cause to be optimistic. If people thought excessive spending was bad under GW, why would people think it's ok for us to spend even more now, that we don't have? Also, I do not just blame the politicians, corporations and the public have to face their share of responsibility.

So far as Baht levels, I hope it remains at a level so that people can continue to stay, but I'm afraid some have already reached their limit. And, from the looks of other currencies, there may not be a lot of options in relocating.

I agree with a lot of what your saying. However Bush inherited a vibrant economy that he pretty much destroyed in his two terms as president. Obama inherited the mess that Bush left behind and just as Bush got it right the first time after 9/11when we went into Afghanistan, he got it wrong when he changed course and went into Iraq. Obama got it right with TARP, but got it wrong with oversight, or a lack thereof and has failed to plug the leaks of fiscal irresponsibility. President Obama will own the results of his efforts and any promises he broke to the American people (what politician doesn't, I know), but there is, as you say, enough blame to go around. But, from what I have seen unfolding just over the last few weeks, the appreciation of the baht seems to have no end. In spite of the challenges that we all face in Thailand as foreigners, we overlook the obstacles and we stay, because this is home. I know there is an inevitability in all of this and that my time here is getting shorter, and tonight, as I was sitting outside one of my favorite food shops eating guatio moo and dim sum, I intently watched the people walk by, observed the buses, taxis and tuk tuks going back and forth and thinking this will all soon be a memory. I spent a lot of money moving my things into this country and I'll spend a lot more removing them, and even though one should never say, "never," it is unlikely (once bitten, twice shy) that I will ever move back. I will truly miss the Thai people who are the genuine article and who personify Thai hospitality, for many of them have become my friends. But, as my aunt has always said, "life is something that happens right after you make plans." Again, I'm happy for those who are in a better financial position and who can weather this storm, but I've talked to a good many people lately who can not. But, at least I had the opportunity to be here and to experience the lifestyle and traditions of Thailand in ways that most tourist could never imagine. I've had a great time!

[sarahsbloke]

I'm OK until the Baht hits 25 to the UKP (15 to the $)

Then it will be time to dump the Thai wife and family, and move back to the UK.

Can't take her with me as they don't want any more Asians in the UK ............

Hopefully it won't happen.

[nikster]

Down to about 32 it was mostly THB strength, since then to now 29.8 it's USD weakness, clearly seen when you look at the graphs for USD/EUR EUR/THB, USD/THB

The Thai central bank doesn't seem worried - looks like the powers that be have nothing to lose from a strong baht at the moment. Or maybe they realized the futility of trying to intervene. I think they'll only get worried when or if the THB significantly outperforms other SEA currencies or the Chinese Yuan. As long as it moves in line with SEA and Yuan - and it seems to be doing that - there's nothing they will do. Or could do, for that matter, as the strengthening of China and SEA is a broader pattern in the market that Thailand has no chance of stopping. The SEA being the "+1" in the "China + 1" strategies.

The USA is in the dumps but that's not the main cause for the THB strength.

[nikster]

I'm OK until the Baht hits 25 to the UKP (15 to the $)

Then it will be time to dump the Thai wife and family, and move back to the UK.

Can't take her with me as they don't want any more Asians in the UK ............

At 15, it would be cheaper to live in the USA than here, for sure. I think even at 20 it would already be cheaper.

Of course you *could* take your thai wife, she'd get a wife visa with work permit no problem. It's a European law, actually. Some countries subvert it (Denmark) but the EU law simply states that any EU citizen has the right to live and work in any EU country, and a non-EU foreigner has the right to live and work where his / her EU spouse live and work.

[rustydick]

i normally go to thailand 4 times a yr .now with the bath so strong and goods getting much dearer i can get great deals in the usa and other places for a hol.now if you are a pure mongerer whos idea of a hol is purely a sex hol then the strength of the bath shouldent worry you as its only a few hundred stg extra than what it used to be..saying that my next trip is brasil in december it wil have to be dam good to be as good as phuket..

[Mauric42]

Baht has gone from 32 to 30 per dollar and gold has gone up over 88 dollars an oz since the last time baht gold was 19000. It just seems it should be higher.

It was actually nearer 19300 when you take the dollar depreciation into account.

[maccaroni man]

honestly how can the dollar be at 29 and the euro at 41?????? i do not see the fiscal responsibility in the eu to justify this type of spread.

[tijnebijn]

Back to the real toipic, it may make things more difficult for me if we see 25 Baht or less to the dollar, but I can adjust to it. Unfortunately for others that have retired already, or have some other issues this could be a real hardship, and I do have sympathy for them.

Usara Wilaipich, senior economist at Standard Chartered, said regional strength had its roots in the impact of the global recession, with a loss of confidence in the dollar.

It is part of "the real topic," and some people decided to elaborate the causes of the global recession and how it relates to the loss of confidence in the dollar. We all know how it impacts those who rely on the strength of the dollar, and how it helps those who benefit from its weakness because their earnings are derived in Thai baht, so its fairly natural for people to want to speculate, vent or discuss alternatives to the effects of a strong baht. Therefore this is nothing more than an extension of ideas which becomes part of the real topic. 28 baht to the dollar, which seems very feasible at this point, is unfortunately my breaking point, but I'm happy to hear that you and others can probably sustain yourselves in a 25 baht to the dollar world. I on the other hand will have to pack it in, and that's a pretty sad reality from where I sit! Thailand has been my home for the last 6.5 years...

I meant I don't really have time to continue debating it, but back to the politics momentarily. I just do not think it makes sense to blame one president for the the failings of a multi trillion dollar economy, and that goes for Obama too. But the Democrats have had considerable power in Congress since 2007, and I haven't seem them or President Obama do anything that gives me, and apparently others, cause to be optimistic. If people thought excessive spending was bad under GW, why would people think it's ok for us to spend even more now, that we don't have? Also, I do not just blame the politicians, corporations and the public have to face their share of responsibility.

So far as Baht levels, I hope it remains at a level so that people can continue to stay, but I'm afraid some have already reached their limit. And, from the looks of other currencies, there may not be a lot of options in relocating.

I agree with a lot of what your saying. However Bush inherited a vibrant economy that he pretty much destroyed in his two terms as president. Obama inherited the mess that Bush left behind and just as Bush got it right the first time after 9/11when we went into Afghanistan, he got it wrong when he changed course and went into Iraq. Obama got it right with TARP, but got it wrong with oversight, or a lack thereof and has failed to plug the leaks of fiscal irresponsibility. President Obama will own the results of his efforts and any promises he broke to the American people (what politician doesn't, I know), but there is, as you say, enough blame to go around. But, from what I have seen unfolding just over the last few weeks, the appreciation of the baht seems to have no end. In spite of the challenges that we all face in Thailand as foreigners, we overlook the obstacles and we stay, because this is home. I know there is an inevitability in all of this and that my time here is getting shorter, and tonight, as I was sitting outside one of my favorite food shops eating guatio moo and dim sum, I intently watched the people walk by, observed the buses, taxis and tuk tuks going back and forth and thinking this will all soon be a memory. I spent a lot of money moving my things into this country and I'll spend a lot more removing them, and even though one should never say, "never," it is unlikely (once bitten, twice shy) that I will ever move back. I will truly miss the Thai people who are the genuine article and who personify Thai hospitality, for many of them have become my friends. But, as my aunt has always said, "life is something that happens right after you make plans." Again, I'm happy for those who are in a better financial position and who can weather this storm, but I've talked to a good many people lately who can not. But, at least I had the opportunity to be here and to experience the lifestyle and traditions of Thailand in ways that most tourist could never imagine. I've had a great time!

great post , keep on going ! :jap:

[tijnebijn]

honestly how can the dollar be at 29 and the euro at 41?????? i do not see the fiscal responsibility in the eu to justify this type of spread.

quantitive easing , or money printing is the guilty practise .

The Us and Europe have a different strategy , Europe is trying to get its debt handled with in a couple of years time , the Us is still not thinking even about it and US debt is HUGE !

Another reason imo , is that the US chooses a devaluation to get out of its slow recovery ,

so long there is no revaluation of the Yuan , Us is opting the other way around , good for USA not for Europe ( higher exchange ) , but you do not hear me complaining at 41 for EU .

[Ricardo]

Nonsense. The BOT is quite sensibly not joining the race the bottom. If the Baht devalues along with the USD it will mean higher energy and raw materials costs for those very same exporters not to mention the average guy buying electricity, fuel, fertilizer and cooking gas.

Hopefully those exporters get a higher-price for their finished-products, than they pay for their raw-materials input, or how are they manufacturing at-a-profit ? So they (although not Thai domestic-consumers) would prefer a weaker Baht, as it works in their favour, increasing costs but boosting sales-revenues by more, in Baht-terms ?

Have you seen any of these imported commodities going down in price in comparison the the dollar? Since oil is traded world wide in dollars, one would think gasoline would be less here than in California, the highest priced gasoline in most of the US... What about other imported goods, have they dropped in price? Not that I have seen. So much for theory put into practice... TiT!

One suspects that, like retailers world-wide, Thai importers are happy to hold Baht-prices steady, or even try to take small price-increases, while the benefit of cheaper-costs boosts their profits ! The answer must surely be increased competition, and less protectionism, and that's not likely to happen ? !

[mommysboy]

Actually more the baht being propped up for some odd reason. I see BOT probably going back to some pegged currency level because the high baht is going to sink all their exports and close business(s) in Thailand. Then add the sagging tourism industry and you have a major disaster.

The baht is not being propped up at all, and BOT would much prefwer a lower baht. US, UK, etc have essentially devalued by undertaking QE, further they offer low or no returns, and look set for tough times for many years to come. You are right though it is a bubble over here and a most dangerous one, because major employment sectors are damaged in Thailand, but these things take months or years to unfold.

It's a toss up between civil unrest, or economic disaster!

US, on the other hand is in an awful state, as it is doing little to tackle its deficit, which is huge.

[evanson]

Has anyone mentioned rice prices

Thailand is a big exporter of rice, or it was a short while ago.

I believe Vietnam devalued its currency recently, so it can undersell Thailand with rice.

Now everyone buys their rice from Vietnam, nobody wants new contracts with Thailand.

For years I was buying my particular brand of rice for 21 baht, then it shot up to an alarming 48 baht overnight. It's now been pegged at around 37 baht. That's a lot for the Thais on the same low income and the farang whose currency value has dropped by at least 30%

[evanson]

I'm OK until the Baht hits 25 to the UKP (15 to the $)

Then it will be time to dump the Thai wife and family, and move back to the UK.

Can't take her with me as they don't want any more Asians in the UK ............

At 15, it would be cheaper to live in the USA than here, for sure. I think even at 20 it would already be cheaper.

Of course you *could* take your thai wife, she'd get a wife visa with work permit no problem. It's a European law, actually. Some countries subvert it (Denmark) but the EU law simply states that any EU citizen has the right to live and work in any EU country, and a non-EU foreigner has the right to live and work where his / her EU spouse live and work.

It took my neighbour five attempts to get his wife of nine years into the UK.

Get proper legal advice from a lawyer specialising in these visas, not this forum. Even the 'Visa' one.

But if you're the kind of guy who'd simply jettison his Thai family instead of making changes to his/their lifestyle, maybe she'd be better off without you anyway.

Edited October 9, 2010 by evanson

[chiang mai]

I'm OK until the Baht hits 25 to the UKP (15 to the $)

Then it will be time to dump the Thai wife and family, and move back to the UK.

Can't take her with me as they don't want any more Asians in the UK ............

At 15, it would be cheaper to live in the USA than here, for sure. I think even at 20 it would already be cheaper.

Of course you *could* take your thai wife, she'd get a wife visa with work permit no problem. It's a European law, actually. Some countries subvert it (Denmark) but the EU law simply states that any EU citizen has the right to live and work in any EU country, and a non-EU foreigner has the right to live and work where his / her EU spouse live and work.

It took my neighbour five attempts to get his wife of nine years into the UK.

Get proper legal advice from a lawyer specialising in these visas, not this forum. Even the 'Visa' one.

But if you're the kind of guy who'd simply jettison his Thai family instead of making changes to his/their lifestyle, maybe she'd be better off without you anyway.

I don't think it's necessary to employ lawyers for this, we made our application ourselves and granted we had to wait eleven weeks for the answer, it was approved without any fanfare and the Settlement visa issued without even so much as an interview.

[michaeljordan]

There is not doubt the financial crisis has hurt the American taxpayer. However, TARP was a necessary evil.

When the final tally is made the bottom line will be a worthwhile investment, Most of it will be paid back with

interest. Interest paid and profit on stock sold will more than cover any monies not paid back.

Although the Bush administration caused a lot of damage, Obama and company's runaway spending is leading to a spiraling deficit that will eventually lead to a financial crisis far worse than most Americans realize possible.

I not talking about politics, but the urgent need for sound fiscal and monetary policies. Sooner or later the printing presses will run out of ink.

While the political nonsense and trash from America is entertaining, it has very little to do with the Thai Baht getting stronger.

The over 65 billion baht per day buy into Thailand from outside Thailand is what is moving the Thai currency. We have Hedge funds or did we already forget George Soros and his bandits? These international hedge funds make huge money on currency movements of the sort we are seeing in Thailand. Now before you political junkies get into your George Bush and Barrack Obama nonsense, I will quickly say that the American President has almost no affect on the currency or the American economy. HUGE money groups and cartels run America's politics.

Will America be happy to see the dollar devalue? Some will and some won;t but the debt and dollars the Chinese and Japan's hold in US dollars will be cut in half by the American devaluing their dollar. Of course China will buy into America with that huge pile of US dollars it has. it certainly will not use in other places where it is worthless. Cut the US dollar in half and America will dig out of its economic hole. China and Japan will grab Uncle Sam by his drunken neck and take him home to recover.

About Thailand and the Baht?

65 billion baht a day being bought by hedge funds from outside Thailand is not good in the long run.

Thailand is not the EU or the USA. it is a relatively small economy and will go to extremes again if not stopped.

The last time in the mid 1990s, the Thai people went crazy buying imports and the Thai nation simply went bankrupt. Once out of money in 1997, it had to let the Baht float on the open market and the baht went to 52 for a dollar US!

Try exporting goods with Thai baht 23 or lower. It will get ugly. Of course if you want to buy your German car in Thailand, you will love it.

OK---you say Europe and Australia and others are not so weak against the Thai baht yet. So it is just an American crash.

NO-it does not work that way. The US dollar floods the world markets and is used by Europe and others to buy Thai goods. After all, they do not want to hold the US dollar in Europe. Who wants to hold a falling rock? They use the dollars and Thailand and other smaller economies will pay.

Good luck all.

Rich get richer

Poor will always be with us with our current economic system which is a license to rape and steal for the wealthy all over the planet.

[michaeljordan]

Back to the real toipic, it may make things more difficult for me if we see 25 Baht or less to the dollar, but I can adjust to it. Unfortunately for others that have retired already, or have some other issues this could be a real hardship, and I do have sympathy for them.

Usara Wilaipich, senior economist at Standard Chartered, said regional strength had its roots in the impact of the global recession, with a loss of confidence in the dollar.

It is part of "the real topic," and some people decided to elaborate the causes of the global recession and how it relates to the loss of confidence in the dollar. We all know how it impacts those who rely on the strength of the dollar, and how it helps those who benefit from its weakness because their earnings are derived in Thai baht, so its fairly natural for people to want to speculate, vent or discuss alternatives to the effects of a strong baht. Therefore this is nothing more than an extension of ideas which becomes part of the real topic. 28 baht to the dollar, which seems very feasible at this point, is unfortunately my breaking point, but I'm happy to hear that you and others can probably sustain yourselves in a 25 baht to the dollar world. I on the other hand will have to pack it in, and that's a pretty sad reality from where I sit! Thailand has been my home for the last 6.5 years...

Are you a Yank? Yes indeed the US dollar and Canadian Dollar are in free fall for now against the Baht.

But if you look over the past 365 days on the charts here, you will see that all currencies are much weaker against the Thai baht. So we DO have a THAI baht movement and not just an American crash.

All your friends from Europe are also feeling the pain. Thailand is not cheap anymore for the retired.http://www.phanganbungalows.com/currency/index.php?currency=EUR&chart_type=last_year&Submit2=display+chart

Here you can see all the patterns. http://www.phanganbungalows.com/currency/index.php?currency=CAD&chart_type=last_year&Submit2=display+chart

BUT--if you love Thailand, you could simply go outside the city for a time. it is very cheap to live outside of the cities you know.

AND--when the baht crashes again, as it will, you will be able to live in the big city again if you like.

But this Thai Baht bubble building is indeed going to be very harmful for The Thai economy in the years ahead.

Thai exports will be ripped apart. Huge buildings being built for no one is what we see. Thais of course buying huge numbers of imported cars. All very understandable. BUT ask any Thai what they think and you will see they are preparing for the crash.

Meet the New Boss

Same as the old boss

We won't get fooled again.

'The Who"

Try moving North of Bangkok one hour. You can rent a house for far less than 10,000 baht a month. Actually you can get them for 6000. Drive into the city when you like.

Good luck.

[britmaveric]

If you are dependent on fluctuations on forex exchanges then time to pack it in.

[michaeljordan]

If you are dependent on fluctuations on forex exchanges then time to pack it in.

Good point.

However, if some are here and love it, I was trying to give another way.

I left after being in Thailand for over decade. It was not finances but cultural reasons that moved me. My sons needed to go to school and i had to decide whether or not they would be Thai or not. I chose not.

After all, I am not.

Yes, my boys have Thai citizenship and Thai family higher up in Thailand. They will hold their Thai citizenship all their lives as is their birth right being born to a Thai. But--I am papa. They are me too. I am not Thai and never could be even if I wanted to be.

Thailand is just a visit you know. They do not want farang to stay.

No chance a white boy who speaks Thai will grow up to PM in the current system.

But this is off topic.

Thai Baht is a gambol. It appears likely to get much stronger still but a death or a war could change that as we all know.

Has it occurred to any of you here that the farmers being hurt so so much by the Thai baht strength are likely Reds.

REDS hurt

City Bangkok Chines Thai helped.

Is that an accident?

[lovelomsak]

There is not doubt the financial crisis has hurt the American taxpayer. However, TARP was a necessary evil.

When the final tally is made the bottom line will be a worthwhile investment, Most of it will be paid back with

interest. Interest paid and profit on stock sold will more than cover any monies not paid back.

Although the Bush administration caused a lot of damage, Obama and company's runaway spending is leading to a spiraling deficit that will eventually lead to a financial crisis far worse than most Americans realize possible.

I not talking about politics, but the urgent need for sound fiscal and monetary policies. Sooner or later the printing presses will run out of ink.

While the political nonsense and trash from America is entertaining, it has very little to do with the Thai Baht getting stronger.

The over 65 billion baht per day buy into Thailand from outside Thailand is what is moving the Thai currency. We have Hedge funds or did we already forget George Soros and his bandits? These international hedge funds make huge money on currency movements of the sort we are seeing in Thailand. Now before you political junkies get into your George Bush and Barrack Obama nonsense, I will quickly say that the American President has almost no affect on the currency or the American economy. HUGE money groups and cartels run America's politics.

Will America be happy to see the dollar devalue? Some will and some won;t but the debt and dollars the Chinese and Japan's hold in US dollars will be cut in half by the American devaluing their dollar. Of course China will buy into America with that huge pile of US dollars it has. it certainly will not use in other places where it is worthless. Cut the US dollar in half and America will dig out of its economic hole. China and Japan will grab Uncle Sam by his drunken neck and take him home to recover.

About Thailand and the Baht?

65 billion baht a day being bought by hedge funds from outside Thailand is not good in the long run.

Thailand is not the EU or the USA. it is a relatively small economy and will go to extremes again if not stopped.

The last time in the mid 1990s, the Thai people went crazy buying imports and the Thai nation simply went bankrupt. Once out of money in 1997, it had to let the Baht float on the open market and the baht went to 52 for a dollar US!

Try exporting goods with Thai baht 23 or lower. It will get ugly. Of course if you want to buy your German car in Thailand, you will love it.

OK---you say Europe and Australia and others are not so weak against the Thai baht yet. So it is just an American crash.

NO-it does not work that way. The US dollar floods the world markets and is used by Europe and others to buy Thai goods. After all, they do not want to hold the US dollar in Europe. Who wants to hold a falling rock? They use the dollars and Thailand and other smaller economies will pay.

Good luck all.

Rich get richer

Poor will always be with us with our current economic system which is a license to rape and steal for the wealthy all over the planet.

I just wanted to say you have a good grasp on whats going on i just hope more people on this forum read you and understand what is said . Your second paragraph sums up perfectly what I have been alluding to for a long time here but wouldnot say it hoping one of the smart guys would see it. You are the smart guy thank you I wouldnot have told them myself. I would have let them go on misleading each other with lost hopes. The only thing you missed was Chinas part dealing with Thailands influx of american dollars to southeast asia from europe. Thailand willnot go the way of 1997 again i assure you.