If Major Conflict Erupts Between Us-China

[Jingthing]

Clearly there is trouble brewing between the USA and China. A severe TRADE WAR seems quite possible. Or even worse.

How will this effect Thailand, a country with close ties to both countries, but seemingly more politically allied with the USA than China?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/24/AR2010102402218.html

This new China is at once cocky and scared -- anxiously looking over its shoulder even as it races ahead. Chinese officials keep reminding you how poor the country is, while also boasting of its success. They're increasingly pushy with neighboring countries but insist that China doesn't want enemies.

[travelmann]

Really unfortunate that the west in giving China virtually all the manufacturing industry for more profits instead of looking after it's work force. Now paying the price and the future consequences. .

Thats because U and I wanted cheaper mass produced goods at the cost of others ie Chinese people who manufactured them. Lets face it capitalism works only to a point there is no ideal system because many people have no self control + greed selfishness etc etc etc.

[britmaveric]

Well tell that to the avg Chinese who has squat? The reality of the situation is China has too many people which will do the country in at the end.

[craigt3365]

Really unfortunate that the west in giving China virtually all the manufacturing industry for more profits instead of looking after it's work force. Now paying the price and the future consequences. .

Thats because U and I wanted cheaper mass produced goods at the cost of others ie Chinese people who manufactured them. Lets face it capitalism works only to a point there is no ideal system because many people have no self control + greed selfishness etc etc etc.

Right on. When at the store looking at, say, a coffee cup made in China for 50 cents vs. one made in the "Good ol' USA" for $2. Which one would you buy? Me, the one for 50 cents, as long as they are about the same quality. Buying a cheaper product allows me to have an improved life style...I have more money for beer!!!

But for sure we are paying for it now....kinda....China is accepting our money so fast off the printing presses it's still wet!

It will be interesting to see what the future holds....

[craigt3365]

Really unfortunate that the west in giving China virtually all the manufacturing industry for more profits instead of looking after it's work force. Now paying the price and the future consequences. .

Thats because U and I wanted cheaper mass produced goods at the cost of others ie Chinese people who manufactured them. Lets face it capitalism works only to a point there is no ideal system because many people have no self control + greed selfishness etc etc etc.

Right on. When at the store looking at, say, a coffee cup made in China for 50 cents vs. one made in the "Good ol' USA" for $2. Which one would you buy? Me, the one for 50 cents, as long as they are about the same quality. Buying a cheaper product allows me to have an improved life style...I have more money for beer!!!

But for sure we are paying for it now....kinda....China is accepting our money so fast off the printing presses it's still wet!

It will be interesting to see what the future holds....

I imported stuff for my race car from the US, guess what, had a tiny sticker saying made in China.

Your US cup was STILL probably made in China or Taiwan.

No, labeling laws are pretty strict in the US. And having a sticker on it saying "Made in the USA" with an American flag is for sure the real thing. But! A lot of stuff is made overseas, just "assembled" in the US. Interesting way to market it...

[bifftastic]

Well, there's nearly always 'trouble' brewing between the USA and pretty much every other nation on the planet. When the US economy is in trouble it tends to turn inwards to an isolationist policy resulting in these 'trade wars'. When companies are making money, banks are stable and currencies are healthy, no-one thinks about international boundaries or territory, it's all one big happy global village where old enemies are now good trading partners.

Corporations will quite happily close down manufacturing at home (wherever 'home' is to a multi-national is a debatable point) and announce that 'market forces' have decided that it's better to support jobs and infrastructure abroad in order to provide the best deal for us, the customer, whereas the reality is, it's the best deal for them and their profit margins.

No-one thinks about the consequences because everything in the garden is rosy and the economy is growing.

When the brown stuff hits the fan they're enemies again but the jobs and infrastructure have already been moved, they don't care until the consumers they just shafted out of jobs stop buying their stuff, stop paying their mortgages/loans and the bubble, rather than bursting, starts to slowly deflate until you look round and everyone (apart from banking execs politicians and corporations) is poor and jobs are as rare as hen's teeth.

Politicians, driven by the people they 'represent' perform a 180 degree u-turn and start trying to close the door after the horse has bolted, restricting trade and fanning the flames of cold war rivalries.

The realities of international trade are what they are, stuff is made in country 'a' and required in country 'b' when country 'a' stops making it because country 'c' makes it cheaper, all the manufacturing is now in country 'c'. Any amount of talk or posturing or threatening by countries 'a' or 'b' won't change the fact that stuff is made in country 'c' the talk is just for the consumption of the people who used to make stuff in country 'a' who feel hard done by because they don't have jobs and suddenly realise that their government/previous employers/banks etc. have shafted them.

Countries can even be in a state of war with each other and still do business.

I think that Thailand may ally itself politically with the US but politics is ultimately the servant of business and trade will happen between partners who find it mutually beneficial. If China provides what business in Thailand wants, and vice versa, then the US government can do nothing about it., nor can anyone else.

Politicians talk, business people get other people to make stuff and sell it, both get paid for it and neither really cares about much else.

Given the state of the worlds economy and the enormous expense of escalation into any form of military conflict (most armed forces exist primarily to support the existence of the industries that supply them) it's unlikely that the US and China will do much other than talk bad about each other. I would expect Thailand to continue talking like a democracy and acting like a business, pretty much like the US or any other country, apart from China which talks like a communist regime but acts like a business. They'll continue spending money in Laos, developing the trade routes in northern Thailand and blame any suffering their people have to endure on 'those bad people from far away'. The US will continue to prop up its ailing banks/corporations at the expense of its population and... blame 'those bad folks from far away'

And the sun will rise tomorrow, the world will continue to turn with most people who live on it trying to make the best of it and take care of their families, in spite of, rather than, thanks to, the afore-mentioned politicians.

In my opinion

[travelmann]

Really unfortunate that the west in giving China virtually all the manufacturing industry for more profits instead of looking after it's work force. Now paying the price and the future consequences. .

Thats because U and I wanted cheaper mass produced goods at the cost of others ie Chinese people who manufactured them. Lets face it capitalism works only to a point there is no ideal system because many people have no self control + greed selfishness etc etc etc.

But did we get anything cheaper or those in control made more profits. Some stuff here that is for sale in UK is half the price, all from China or Taiwan. The tables are now turning with the Chinese life style rising leaps and bounds and employment in the west still dropping.

Ah well you've kind of twisted it round a bit, soon it will be cheaper to produce here as the £ is so weak and then production will go to other maybe African countries as they develop as soon as China is up to the "wests" salaries and standards.

[travelmann]

Well, there's nearly always 'trouble' brewing between the USA and pretty much every other nation on the planet. When the US economy is in trouble it tends to turn inwards to an isolationist policy resulting in these 'trade wars'. When companies are making money, banks are stable and currencies are healthy, no-one thinks about international boundaries or territory, it's all one big happy global village where old enemies are now good trading partners.

Corporations will quite happily close down manufacturing at home (wherever 'home' is to a multi-national is a debatable point) and announce that 'market forces' have decided that it's better to support jobs and infrastructure abroad in order to provide the best deal for us, the customer, whereas the reality is, it's the best deal for them and their profit margins.

No-one thinks about the consequences because everything in the garden is rosy and the economy is growing.

When the brown stuff hits the fan they're enemies again but the jobs and infrastructure have already been moved, they don't care until the consumers they just shafted out of jobs stop buying their stuff, stop paying their mortgages/loans and the bubble, rather than bursting, starts to slowly deflate until you look round and everyone (apart from banking execs politicians and corporations) is poor and jobs are as rare as hen's teeth.

Politicians, driven by the people they 'represent' perform a 180 degree u-turn and start trying to close the door after the horse has bolted, restricting trade and fanning the flames of cold war rivalries.

The realities of international trade are what they are, stuff is made in country 'a' and required in country 'b' when country 'a' stops making it because country 'c' makes it cheaper, all the manufacturing is now in country 'c'. Any amount of talk or posturing or threatening by countries 'a' or 'b' won't change the fact that stuff is made in country 'c' the talk is just for the consumption of the people who used to make stuff in country 'a' who feel hard done by because they don't have jobs and suddenly realise that their government/previous employers/banks etc. have shafted them.

Countries can even be in a state of war with each other and still do business.

I think that Thailand may ally itself politically with the US but politics is ultimately the servant of business and trade will happen between partners who find it mutually beneficial. If China provides what business in Thailand wants, and vice versa, then the US government can do nothing about it., nor can anyone else.

Politicians talk, business people get other people to make stuff and sell it, both get paid for it and neither really cares about much else.

Given the state of the worlds economy and the enormous expense of escalation into any form of military conflict (most armed forces exist primarily to support the existence of the industries that supply them) it's unlikely that the US and China will do much other than talk bad about each other. I would expect Thailand to continue talking like a democracy and acting like a business, pretty much like the US or any other country, apart from China which talks like a communist regime but acts like a business. They'll continue spending money in Laos, developing the trade routes in northern Thailand and blame any suffering their people have to endure on 'those bad people from far away'. The US will continue to prop up its ailing banks/corporations at the expense of its population and... blame 'those bad folks from far away'

And the sun will rise tomorrow, the world will continue to turn with most people who live on it trying to make the best of it and take care of their families, in spite of, rather than, thanks to, the afore-mentioned politicians.

In my opinion

Thailand will sit on the fence and take the wildest ambigous solution:lol:

[Jingthing]

Thailand will sit on the fence and take the wildest ambigous solution:lol:

But Thailand is an example of a country that indeed will be deeply impacted by a US-China trade war. Maybe it's a mai bpen rai moment, there really isn't anything Thailand can do to stop it from happening.

[bifftastic]

My fence not you fence! You don't understand Thai fence!

[geriatrickid]

My friend called me yesterday to ask how much I was going to contribute to the flood relief Everyone was giving and it wouldn't look good if I was not generous. I said nada. Long pause from him, and his answer, ok, so I will put in for you and you will pay up. Right, I said, fat chance. Another long pause, and he then launches into his lecture. Do you understand what is happening here he said? We are being flooded because of China. The Chinese are releasing all this water into our country, they do not care about us. Is this what you want? Your family isn't ruling China anymore, you know etc. etc.

Ok, so my little story is intended to provide an indication of what some Thais are thinking. There is a palpable resentment of the Chinese. A discomfort, if you will. (The story isn't about whether or not the Chinese are to blame - they are not, as some of the responsibility must fall on Thai watershed mismanagement and it's not about me being a cheap Charlie). I believe the Thai military is keenly aware of the previous Chinese attacks on Vietnam and the meddling in Laos. There is a fear as to what the Chinese intentions are in respect to the disputed sea and island areas. There is a concern as to how the Chinese are like locusts destroying any and all undeveloped areas and sucking in all of the available resources and water and spewing out toxic pollution in return. China has impacted the Thai economy in many neative ways undercutting wages and dumping cheap goods on the market. Thailand requires a counterbalance to China. Vietnam is hedging its bets, playing nice with both Russia and the USA. The Thais, just don't have the patience to deal with the Russians, plus there isn't a history upon which to build as there is in Vietnam. All of Thailand's cards are with the west. And of the western nations, only the USA and Australia could be counted upon to render assistance if the need arose. The Europeans would hem and haw and appease. The UK would face difficulties in mounting a response, although diplomatically it would provide support along with Canada and other local Commonwealth partners. Thaialnd knows it can only count on the USA when push comes to shove, but it also knows the US public opinion has now become insular and help might not come.

Edited October 25, 2010 by geriatrickid

[SergeiY]

My bet is on China. Who cares about the USA.

[Jingthing]

That is true. It is a known fact that Thailand is getting closer to the USA militarily (as is the entire Asean region) as a counterbalance to Chinese growing power and bullying. I don't think it is easy to separate the military issue from the economic, but of course they aren't the same.

Edited October 25, 2010 by Jingthing

[travelmann]

Thats because U and I wanted cheaper mass produced goods at the cost of others ie Chinese people who manufactured them. Lets face it capitalism works only to a point there is no ideal system because many people have no self control + greed selfishness etc etc etc.

But did we get anything cheaper or those in control made more profits. Some stuff here that is for sale in UK is half the price, all from China or Taiwan. The tables are now turning with the Chinese life style rising leaps and bounds and employment in the west still dropping.

Ah well you've kind of twisted it round a bit, soon it will be cheaper to produce here as the £ is so weak and then production will go to other maybe African countries as they develop as soon as China is up to the "wests" salaries and standards.

Absolutely, don't forget India.

Yes plenty of other low paid countries to fully exploit first before we go head first into total anihalation of us and the planet ............ at least one of those two will recover and thankfully it wont be us.

[SergeiY]

My friend called me yesterday to ask how much I was going to contribute to the flood relief Everyone was giving and it wouldn't look good if I was not generous. I said nada. Long pause from him, and his answer, ok, so I will put in for you and you will pay up. Right, I said, fat chance. Another long pause, and he then launches into his lecture. Do you understand what is happening here he said? We are being flooded because of China. The Chinese are releasing all this water into our country, they do not care about us. Is this what you want? Your family isn't ruling China anymore, you know etc. etc.

Ok, so my little story is intended to provide an indication of what some Thais are thinking. There is a palpable resentment of the Chinese. A discomfort, if you will. ...

lol

You don't wanna know what they tell their Chinese friends about the Americans.

[bifftastic]

Thailand will sit on the fence and take the wildest ambigous solution:lol:

But Thailand is an example of a country that indeed will be deeply impacted by a US-China trade war. Maybe it's a mai bpen rai moment, there really isn't anything Thailand can do to stop it from happening.

I really do think that a trade war is just talk. If there is to be a reduction in trade between two countries it will more likely be due to a lack of supply or demand which is dressed up to be something that politicians have decided upon, in which case, there's nothing anyone can do about it.

I'd like to understand more about what you mean by this trade war and how you see the potential impact on Thailand. Would it be the result of restrictive practises by China or the US? Rises in import duties? Quotas or embargoes? What do you think?

[lannarebirth]

Thats because U and I wanted cheaper mass produced goods at the cost of others ie Chinese people who manufactured them. Lets face it capitalism works only to a point there is no ideal system because many people have no self control + greed selfishness etc etc etc.

Right on. When at the store looking at, say, a coffee cup made in China for 50 cents vs. one made in the "Good ol' USA" for $2. Which one would you buy? Me, the one for 50 cents, as long as they are about the same quality. Buying a cheaper product allows me to have an improved life style...I have more money for beer!!!

But for sure we are paying for it now....kinda....China is accepting our money so fast off the printing presses it's still wet!

It will be interesting to see what the future holds....

I imported stuff for my race car from the US, guess what, had a tiny sticker saying made in China.

Your US cup was STILL probably made in China or Taiwan.

No, labeling laws are pretty strict in the US. And having a sticker on it saying "Made in the USA" with an American flag is for sure the real thing. But! A lot of stuff is made overseas, just "assembled" in the US. Interesting way to market it...

I remeber back in the 60's, Japan used to ship junk to the US from a city in Japan named Usa (or renamed, not sure). That worked for a while.

[bifftastic]

All of Thailand's cards are with the west. And of the western nations, only the USA and Australia could be counted upon to render assistance if the need arose. The Europeans would hem and haw and appease. The UK would face difficulties in mounting a response, although diplomatically it would provide support along with Canada and other local Commonwealth partners. Thaialnd knows it can only count on the USA when push comes to shove, but it also knows the US public opinion has now become insular and help might not come.

Very interesting stuff, I only cut it down in this reply to save repeating all of it

I think the reality is that most 'smaller' nations would like to rely on the military power of one of the worlds big powerhouses but the reality of it is that a military solution to pretty much any problem just doesn't exist any more. In fact 'military' and 'solution' probably shouldn't even be in the same sentence!

Thailand needs to maintain it's own independent military options, which the US will help to supply it with. That's the only deterrent any country has. If invaded by another country then you're pretty much on your own . The main reason countries don't really go for the historical idea of gaining territory by military invasion is that it doesn't benefit them to send in tanks and blow up the place because they then have territory that no longer functions and, aside from the initial cost, they then have to re-build it.

The reason the US and the UK, for instance, support the military in other countries is in order to sell them military hardware and expertise. If push comes to shove, no-one is ready to commit lives and money to any more foreign wars. The ongoing conflicts that we are currently involved in serve only to highlight the reasons NOT to do so.

[Kwasaki]

Interesting comments and a military solution would be out of the question, maybe it's getting near to Nuke time.

As l said in another forum England had it's day along with France then it was America the next one looks like it's goner be China.

Edited October 25, 2010 by Kwasaki

[phaethon]

If Thailand sides with China then probably there will be little impact. However, if Thailand sides with the US then friendly fire alone would probably wipe out half the population.

[lovelomsak]

Thailand will become the broker for China and America. Thailand will be the peace maker for commerce between these two powers.It will have good purchasing power for American goods with a strong baht. And will have location and American dollars for trade with China and other South east Asian countries.

It willnot be long before the ducks are in order. The dragon will be fully awake and in charge.

When America will want something Asia has to offer they will talk to Thailand first.

[britmaveric]

Dragon will go down in flames is the most likely scenario.

[Kwasaki]

Thailand will become the broker for China and America. Thailand will be the peace maker for commerce between these two powers.It will have good purchasing power for American goods with a strong baht. And will have location and American dollars for trade with China and other South east Asian countries.

It willnot be long before the ducks are in order. The dragon will be fully awake and in charge.

When America will want something Asia has to offer they will talk to Thailand first.

You may be right but l would say Singapore more likely.

[tomahawk]

I believe Thailand really really does not want to have to choose side between US-China. Still I believe it will side with US. They would be crazy not to. In a real war China has no chance against US, but they know this and are not stupid so I think will not come to that. China has too many people and they are very unhappy with govt. if China does not change way it treats its own people they will ruin their chance to be a major power. I have friend who just came from China who says there are worker demonstrations everyday no one even hears about in west. To answer one guy who says no one cares about US, I yhink the truth is no one cares about Russia, especially since they lost cold war and their country fell apart.

[Naam]

Thailand will become the broker for China and America. Thailand will be the peace maker for commerce between these two powers.It will have good purchasing power for American goods with a strong baht. And will have location and American dollars for trade with China and other South east Asian countries. It willnot be long before the ducks are in order. The dragon will be fully awake and in charge.

When America will want something Asia has to offer they will talk to Thailand first.

source: Khun Somchai Pornthip, Nakhon Nowhere after six bottles of Chang

[mark45y]

All of Thailand's cards are with the west. And of the western nations, only the USA and Australia could be counted upon to render assistance if the need arose. The Europeans would hem and haw and appease. The UK would face difficulties in mounting a response, although diplomatically it would provide support along with Canada and other local Commonwealth partners. Thaialnd knows it can only count on the USA when push comes to shove, but it also knows the US public opinion has now become insular and help might not come.

Very interesting stuff, I only cut it down in this reply to save repeating all of it

I think the reality is that most 'smaller' nations would like to rely on the military power of one of the worlds big powerhouses but the reality of it is that a military solution to pretty much any problem just doesn't exist any more. In fact 'military' and 'solution' probably shouldn't even be in the same sentence!

Thailand needs to maintain it's own independent military options, which the US will help to supply it with. That's the only deterrent any country has. If invaded by another country then you're pretty much on your own . The main reason countries don't really go for the historical idea of gaining territory by military invasion is that it doesn't benefit them to send in tanks and blow up the place because they then have territory that no longer functions and, aside from the initial cost, they then have to re-build it.

The reason the US and the UK, for instance, support the military in other countries is in order to sell them military hardware and expertise. If push comes to shove, no-one is ready to commit lives and money to any more foreign wars. The ongoing conflicts that we are currently involved in serve only to highlight the reasons NOT to do so.

Report from BBC:

1990: Iraq invades Kuwait

More than 100,000 Iraqi soldiers backed up by 700 tanks invaded the Gulf state of Kuwait in the early hours of this morning.

Iraqi forces have established a provisional government and their leader Saddam Hussein has threatened to turn Kuwait city into a "graveyard" if any other country dares to challenge the "take-over by force".

Iraqi jets have bombed targets in the capital and special forces have landed at the defence ministry and at the Emir's palace. Road blocks are in place and there are reports of looting in the city's shops.

Initial reports suggest up to 200 people have been killed in heavy gunfire around the city. End of Story BBC

Maybe you want to tell us what happened next in light of your opinion "I think the reality is that most 'smaller' nations would like to rely on the military power of one of the worlds big powerhouses but the reality of it is that a military solution to pretty much any problem just doesn't exist any more. In fact 'military' and 'solution' probably shouldn't even be in the same sentence!"

[mark45y]

My bet is on China. Who cares about the USA.

GDP US 14.2 trillion

Japan 4.9 trillion

China 3.8 trillion

France 2.8 trillion

UK 2.6 trillion

California 1.8 trillion

Russia 1.6 trillion

Australia 1 trillion

[craigt3365]

My bet is on China. Who cares about the USA.

GDP US 14.2 trillion

Japan 4.9 trillion

China 3.8 trillion

France 2.8 trillion

UK 2.6 trillion

California 1.8 trillion

Russia 1.6 trillion

Australia 1 trillion

Doesn't seem like a good bet...

[Kwasaki]

My bet is on China. Who cares about the USA.

GDP US 14.2 trillion

Japan 4.9 trillion

China 3.8 trillion

France 2.8 trillion

UK 2.6 trillion

California 1.8 trillion

Russia 1.6 trillion

Australia 1 trillion

Who did the sums wait for the real thing.

[LaoPo]

A Trade war between the USA and China will affect the whole world, Thailand included and will have serious consequences for the whole financial world and currencies in particular.

The silly thing in all this is that a lot of people always blame China but it are the Western Buyers, flooding China to buy products they can't make themselves anymore, who are to be blamed.

If you blame some one, blame the buyers of the products or the ones who created nonsense products we don't need, not the producers in foreign Asian countries like China, Japan, Korea, Thailand.

More than 30 years, coming to Hong Kong for the first time, sitting in the hotel lobby I was stunned, amazed and shocked by the numbers of mainly US and European people, working day and night with Chinese business people.

It didn't matter if I entered the lobby at 00:30AM or 06:30AM or at lunch time, the lobby and breakfast rooms were still or already PACKED with businessmen.

When I entered a lobby or breakfast room, either in the US or Europe, the lobbies were still always quiet...

WHO wants to create a trade war? The US, Europe, Africa ?

Isn't it time the western countries start looking in their own mirrors......in their financial books a bit more, and start doing what they should do: limit their debst and stop printing extra Dollars, Euros, Pounds in order to "satisfy" their citizens ?

But, no, they want to create a trade war with China?! how silly but in the end, such a trade war will bounce back on them full force since a protective kind of trade war has NEVER WORKED in the past and will not also in the future.

LaoPo