All Players In Thai Politics Have Their Own Contingency Plans

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THAI TALK

All players have their own contingency plans

By Suthichai Yoon

The Nation

Did Premier Abhisit Vejjajiva recently tell his Democrat Party members that he would dissolve Parliament to prevent a military coup? Did he say, in the same context, that the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) had put pressure on the government by holding a new series of rallies over the Thai-Khmer border issue in order to galvanise the military to stage a takeover?

So far, Abhisit hasn't confirmed or denied these reports - except to speak through some of his lieutenants that he had referred to "some elements of the PAD" who were trying to instigate a coup. "The PM, in his briefing to the party's meeting, didn't mean to implicate the PAD as a group," said a close aide.

But even if the premier was offering his "political strategic plan" in private to his party members - to call an election to pre-empt a coup - it wasn't such a brilliant idea after all. Nor was it a very practical one.

If you believe the stories in question, the PM did add that he didn't think the Army's leadership was inclined towards a putsch. So, when he was quoted as saying, "A House dissolution is preferable to a coup," it wasn't a very logical statement to start with.

You can only assume, naturally, that he was either misquoted by an overzealous party member trying to dramatise the incident, or that the reporters were making a similar mistake of the same proportions.

But then, if the premier hadn't been quoted out of context - and had actually uttered those words to his party members - he could have been employing a scare tactic to achieve his own political aim. His political aim, in brief, would be to set the stage for an election that would ensure the return of his Democrat Party and some of the "trusted" coalition partners to form the next government.

Does he really believe a coup could be a possibility that would abort his election plan? Publicly, the PM would have to agree with Army Commander-in-Chief General Prayuth Em-Ocha, who has said: "Who wants to stage a coup now?"

Privately, both Abhisit and Prayuth presumbly realise that there are factors outside their normal control that could prove them wrong, forcing them to take actions they can't even dream of at the moment.

For Abhisit, there is the additional factor of the unpredictability of the Constitutional Tribunal's ruling on whether to disband the Democrat Party over allegations of violation of the election laws. Even more politically tricky for the premier is whether a negative ruling would also ban the party's executives from all political activities for five years.

No Democrat will discuss the Plan B in case the worst-case scenario should come to pass. But inevitably, Abhisit's game plan will be to factor in the most disastrous scenario in his House-dissolution-versus-coup scheme.

Thaksin Shinawatra's Pheu Thai Party, threatened by factionalism, remains confident it can sweep up enough MPs to form the next government. But as long as the party can't find a genuine leader who can hold the factions together, Thaksin's continued exile abroad will remain the weakest link in the whole exercise. Recent history proved that neither the late Samak Sundaravej, nor Somchai Wongsawat could serve effectively as Thaksin's nominee despite the staggering majority of seats in the House.

Pheu Thai, therefore, will have to work out its own Plan B, to be used not only to challenge the Democrat Party (or its reincarnation in another form should it be dissolved), but also to deal with a hostile Army led by General Prayuth, who has repeatedly suggested he will not hesitate to crack down on "anti-monarchy elements".

Obviously, Pheu Thai leaders don't need to get the Army chief's official confirmation to realise that he remains suspicious of possible links between some radical groups and the party's leadership.

General Prayuth, therefore, needs to map out his own contingency Plan B as well. If Plan A for him envisaged a new government under more or less the current composition, Plan B would see a radical political realignment following the ballot-casting.

Plan B doesn't incorporate a coup. It probably redefines the "proper distance" he keeps from all the major political players. Besides, his stand towards the reds and yellows will determine how he plans his next steps.

Now, if Abhisit is really thinking about dissolving Parliament to pre-empt a coup, he is obviously laying out Plan A, hoping he doesn't need Plan B to forestall a worse situation.

For the Army chief, Plan B would have to be ready to replace Plan A if things don't go as his best laid-out plan says they will. Nobody wants him to even consider the possibility of "Plan X", of course.

-- The Nation 2010-11-25

[nikster]

Is there any sense in this article? All i see is an unfounded accusation that the PAD wants a military coup. The rest is a he-said-she-said almost completely devoid of any actual information.

I guess this is why I don't read The Nation.

[jayjay0]

The Nation said

["You can only assume, naturally, that he was either misquoted by an overzealous party member trying to dramatise the incident, or that the reporters were making a similar mistake of the same proportions."]

Nation reporters make a mistake. A mistake for them would be to get it rite. To say that All Players In Thai Politics Have Their Own Contingency Plans. Is misleading. If they didn't they would be unable to do there job. They would have a closed mind

Come to think of it may be they don't have a alternative plan.

Edited November 25, 2010 by jayjay0

[TheyCallmeScooter]

Is there any sense in this article? All i see is an unfounded accusation that the PAD wants a military coup. The rest is a he-said-she-said almost completely devoid of any actual information.

I guess this is why I don't read The Nation.

Bravo!

I was about to say something very similar. Though perhaps with less question marks and uncertainty.

The Nation has been a joke for as long as I've been in Thailand.

Their main competitor has recently joined them in Unbelievaville.