Thai PM Abhisit Faces Key Electoral Test In 2011

[webfact]

Thai PM faces key electoral test in 2011 -

by Amelie Bottollier-Depois

BANGKOK, December 27, 2010 (AFP) - Thailand's premier defied sceptics this year to survive the worst political crisis in decades but faces a key electoral test in 2011 in a nation that is still deeply divided.

At the height of mass anti-government protests in the heart of Bangkok in April and May that sparked violence which ultimately left more than 90 people dead, many thought Abhisit Vejjajiva's days as prime minister were numbered.

But the British-born, Oxford-educated head of the ruling Democrat Party managed to cling to power through the "Red Shirt" opposition rallies and ensuing military crackdown, and this month began his third year in office.

"Abhisit has prevailed but he has not achieved reconciliation," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor of political science at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University. "We are likely headed for more confrontation."

Abhisit -- who was elected in December 2008 through a parliamentary vote with the backing of the Bangkok-based elite and the military -- faces a crucial test next year when he must call a general election.

"It is unlikely the Democrat Party will win a majority," said Thitinan, who sees the formation of another coalition government as Abhisit's best chance of staying in power.

"The opposition Puea Thai Party is in disarray, is demoralised, has suffered from defections and does not have an appealing leadership, yet it can still conceivably become the largest winning party," he added.

With polls on the horizon, the Democrats have announced a host of populist policies including paying a modest allowance to the elderly and introducing free schooling.

But these are unlikely to help Abhisit "win the hearts and minds of the poor," said Pavin Chachavlapongpun, a Thailand expert and former diplomat.

"Contrary to what Abhisit believes, the poor are not stupid and they realise that unless the Thai crisis is fixed -- meaning a fairer distribution of political power and national wealth -- the problem facing Thailand is far from over," he added.

Thailand has been riven by frequent political violence since Thaksin Shinawatra, a telecoms tycoon-turned-premier who now lives overseas to avoid a jail term for corruption, was ousted in a 2006 military coup.

His allies won a 2007 general election but judicial rulings forced two successive prime ministers -- both allies of the fugitive former premier -- from office in 2008, paving the way for Abhisit to take charge.

Accusations of double standards have become louder in light of recent court decisions to drop charges of election fraud against the Democrats on technicalities, enabling the party to escape a political ban.

The Red Shirts, many of whom hail from Thailand's rural northeast and support Thaksin for his populist policies while in office, accuse the Democrats of being an undemocratic elite. Their protests were demanding snap elections.

The red-clad movement has returned to the streets of Bangkok to stage a series of peaceful rallies in recent weeks that have attracted thousands of supporters, underscoring the country's still-simmering political tensions.

The opposition is expected to fare well at the next election in certain rural areas where Thaksin remains popular.

But Puea Thai is "much weaker than the Red Shirt movement," said Michael Montesano of the Institute of Southeast Asia Studies in Singapore.

"The Democrats will have the help of the interior ministry and the military in controlling the campaign period and the likely outcome is a coalition led by the Democrats, very much like today's government," he said.

Abhisit has retained the backing of the Thai elite in bureaucratic, military and palace circles.

He now presides over a government that is a "hybrid between military and civilian", said Thitinan.

"In the front it is a civilian -- Abhisit -- and in the back are the army generals propping up the status quo, the established order that has been there in the 60 last years," he said.

Abhisit has long been accused by critics of being a "puppet" for an unelected elite, but experts say he has also shown he can act on his own political initiative.

"In 2010 Abhisit has shown more political skill and perhaps been able to act a little bit more on his own and a bit less as a front man," said Montesano.

-- (c) Copyright AFP 2010-12-27

[JetsetBkk]

"Contrary to what Abhisit believes, the poor are not stupid and they realise that unless the Thai crisis is fixed -- meaning a fairer distribution of political power and national wealth -- the problem facing Thailand is far from over," he added.

The poor are not half as stupid as some posters here like to pretend.

Come to think of it, delete "like to pretend" from the above.

[whybother]

"Contrary to what Abhisit believes, the poor are not stupid and they realise that unless the Thai crisis is fixed -- meaning a fairer distribution of political power and national wealth -- the problem facing Thailand is far from over," he added.

The poor are not half as stupid as some posters here like to pretend.

Come to think of it, delete "like to pretend" from the above.

Given how they believe the lies of some of the red shirt leaders, the PTP and Thaksin, your statement is very questionable.

[Siam Simon]

"Contrary to what Abhisit believes, the poor are not stupid and they realise that unless the Thai crisis is fixed -- meaning a fairer distribution of political power and national wealth -- the problem facing Thailand is far from over," he added.

The poor are not half as stupid as some posters here like to pretend.

Come to think of it, delete "like to pretend" from the above.

Given how they believe the lies of some of the red shirt leaders, the PTP and Thaksin, your statement is very questionable.

I suspect that they just prefer the lies by Thaksin and his bunch to the ones told them pre and immediately post-Thaksin.

[JetsetBkk]

"Contrary to what Abhisit believes, the poor are not stupid and they realise that unless the Thai crisis is fixed -- meaning a fairer distribution of political power and national wealth -- the problem facing Thailand is far from over," he added.

The poor are not half as stupid as some posters here like to pretend.

Come to think of it, delete "like to pretend" from the above.

Given how they believe the lies of some of the red shirt leaders, the PTP and Thaksin, your statement is very questionable.

I suspect that they just prefer the lies by Thaksin and his bunch to the ones told them pre and immediately post-Thaksin.

"In the front it is a civilian -- Abhisit -- and in the back are the army generals propping up the status quo, the established order that has been there in the 60 last years," he said.

Doesn't matter if Abhisit speaks the truth or lies. He's wearing an invisible straight-jacket.

[rubl]

From an earlier article of k. Thitinan (20th of May 2010):

"Thailand's ultimate reconciliation centres on the redshirts beyond Thaksin, under a different leadership, and the pro-Abhisit establishment's willingness to accept the reds' grievances and work to alleviate them with revised rules. A mutually agreed upon compromise would create an electoral environment whose results would have a greater chance of acceptance by the main stakeholders involved."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/may/20/thailand-thaksin-redshirts-abhisit

[whybother]

"In the front it is a civilian -- Abhisit -- and in the back are the army generals propping up the status quo, the established order that has been there in the 60 last years," he said.

Doesn't matter if Abhisit speaks the truth or lies. He's wearing an invisible straight-jacket.

How many generals are in the red shirt and PTP ranks?

[whybother]

From an earlier article of k. Thitinan (20th of May 2010):

"Thailand's ultimate reconciliation centres on the redshirts beyond Thaksin, under a different leadership, and the pro-Abhisit establishment's willingness to accept the reds' grievances and work to alleviate them with revised rules. A mutually agreed upon compromise would create an electoral environment whose results would have a greater chance of acceptance by the main stakeholders involved."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/may/20/thailand-thaksin-redshirts-abhisit

It seems Abhisit is doing his part working towards the red shirts grievances.

Have the red shirts done ANYTHING towards reconciliation?

[JetsetBkk]

From an earlier article of k. Thitinan (20th of May 2010):

"Thailand's ultimate reconciliation centres on the redshirts beyond Thaksin, under a different leadership, and the pro-Abhisit establishment's willingness to accept the reds' grievances and work to alleviate them with revised rules. A mutually agreed upon compromise would create an electoral environment whose results would have a greater chance of acceptance by the main stakeholders involved."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/may/20/thailand-thaksin-redshirts-abhisit

It seems Abhisit is doing his part working towards the red shirts grievances.

Have the red shirts done ANYTHING towards reconciliation?

They stopped burning Bangkok.