Gbp Vs Thb ... Worst Echange For Over 10 Years

[MJP]

35 Baht to the Pound would be nice....it would further extinguish the loud mouthed riff raff, 2 week millionaire muppets from flying to Bangkok sporting their "Tevez 32" Man City shirt, shouting on arrival in an irritating Manc accent "I want a cold f'ing beer!"

Thirty five?!!!

I'm looking for parity. Give me, get me, I want parity.

Thai telly t'uther day. Tourist numbers report. UK arrivals were mentioned as being down the sharpest. May your wish be granted Mr. Numbers!

[billd766]

Here are 2 spreadsheets for 2000 to 2004 and 2005 to 2010 showing the exchange rates on a monthly average.

10 year trend 2000 to 2004.xls

10 year trend 2005 to 2010.xls

[mommysboy]

As far as I'm aware there really isn't any way of producing a reliable chart over a meaningful period of time, let alone predicting from it. 3 reasons, the baht was pegged at a very artificial rate for a number of years, the Thai baht underwent an atypical plummet a good decade ago, and the pound has done similar now. Anybody who thinks that it is possible to drawn a nice straight line through that lot is indeed a candidate for the loony bin.>>>>

Where he may no doubt share lodgings with anyone in the 32 baht to the pound camp. Correct me if I'm wrong but this would predict near parity with the dollar!!! This could compromise Thailand's price competitiveness just a smidgen.

I'll guess at 45-50 bt to the pound over the next year. The currency under most pressure IMHO willl be the Euro.

[Naam]

The currency under most pressure IMHO willl be the Euro.

a lot of famous "anals" from famous financial institutions disagree. personally, as usual, i refrain from making any predictions on any currency or currency pair.

[billd766]

As far as I'm aware there really isn't any way of producing a reliable chart over a meaningful period of time, let alone predicting from it. 3 reasons, the baht was pegged at a very artificial rate for a number of years, the Thai baht underwent an atypical plummet a good decade ago, and the pound has done similar now. Anybody who thinks that it is possible to drawn a nice straight line through that lot is indeed a candidate for the loony bin.>>>>

Where he may no doubt share lodgings with anyone in the 32 baht to the pound camp. Correct me if I'm wrong but this would predict near parity with the dollar!!! This could compromise Thailand's price competitiveness just a smidgen.

I'll guess at 45-50 bt to the pound over the next year. The currency under most pressure IMHO willl be the Euro.

The charts I put up were taken from the Bangkok Bank from 2000 to 2006 and from 2007 to 2010 from the Kasikorn Bank on a Monday to Friday check of the exchange rates on the sites.

All I did was to take each year in turn and put them onto an Excel spreadsheet and a graph at the top. I then did a monthly average for each year and opened a new spreadsheet with a graph. The original one I did had all of the years but it was so unwieldy I split it into two.

I don't have the knowledge or skills (should that be luck) to do any forward predictions.

I have only hopes that if we are lucky the GBP will not go lower and if really lucky it could (pretty please) get back up to 50 Baht this year.

[12DrinkMore]

As far as I'm aware there really isn't any way of producing a reliable chart over a meaningful period of time, let alone predicting from it. 3 reasons, the baht was pegged at a very artificial rate for a number of years, the Thai baht underwent an atypical plummet a good decade ago, and the pound has done similar now. Anybody who thinks that it is possible to drawn a nice straight line through that lot is indeed a candidate for the loony bin.>>>>

Where he may no doubt share lodgings with anyone in the 32 baht to the pound camp. Correct me if I'm wrong but this would predict near parity with the dollar!!! This could compromise Thailand's price competitiveness just a smidgen.

I'll guess at 45-50 bt to the pound over the next year. The currency under most pressure IMHO willl be the Euro.

I agree that using historical charts of a currency pair is not going to be a useful tool in forecasting future rates, although not entirely for the reasons you state.

To state the blindingly obvious, the exchange rate between a pair of currencies is dependent on the relative flow in and out of them. This is influenced by trade, investment, speculation and political interference.

1. Trade, anybody seen any UK made produce in the shops recently? Apart from a few food items in Tesco I haven't.

2. Investment, Thailand is hiking interest rates. BKK will give you 2.25%. The UK is not likely to raise interest rates for a long time. Investment money is flowing into Asia because it is cheaper and easier to manufacture in Asia than in the west.

3. Speculation, the general speculative flow is into Asian currencies and countries.

4. Political interference, QE, zero interest rates, massive debt and huge obstacles to small businesses in the UK has to be set against the strong Thai banking sector, little government interference in industry and small start ups (anybody can open up a street food stall and sell stuff anywhere; try that in the UK), and huge foreign currency reserves built up to hold down the THB. This cannot continue indefinitely, with the BoT taking the losses, the THB has to appreciate against western currencies.

The UK government is also not interested in expats and their problems. They are trying to boost exports and increase local demand by ensuring the currency does not appreciate.

I have to agree with MJP, we are now heading to the next slot down, and 43-46 looks about right. If the UK does not pull its socks and interest rates up, then the next move is a band beneath that.

[Patronus]

As far as I'm aware there really isn't any way of producing a reliable chart over a meaningful period of time, let alone predicting from it. 3 reasons, the baht was pegged at a very artificial rate for a number of years, the Thai baht underwent an atypical plummet a good decade ago, and the pound has done similar now. Anybody who thinks that it is possible to drawn a nice straight line through that lot is indeed a candidate for the loony bin.>>>>

Where he may no doubt share lodgings with anyone in the 32 baht to the pound camp. Correct me if I'm wrong but this would predict near parity with the dollar!!! This could compromise Thailand's price competitiveness just a smidgen.

I'll guess at 45-50 bt to the pound over the next year. The currency under most pressure IMHO willl be the Euro.

I agree that using historical charts of a currency pair is not going to be a useful tool in forecasting future rates, although not entirely for the reasons you state.

To state the blindingly obvious, the exchange rate between a pair of currencies is dependent on the relative flow in and out of them. This is influenced by trade, investment, speculation and political interference.

1. Trade, anybody seen any UK made produce in the shops recently? Apart from a few food items in Tesco I haven't.

2. Investment, Thailand is hiking interest rates. BKK will give you 2.25%. The UK is not likely to raise interest rates for a long time. Investment money is flowing into Asia because it is cheaper and easier to manufacture in Asia than in the west.

3. Speculation, the general speculative flow is into Asian currencies and countries.

4. Political interference, QE, zero interest rates, massive debt and huge obstacles to small businesses in the UK has to be set against the strong Thai banking sector, little government interference in industry and small start ups (anybody can open up a street food stall and sell stuff anywhere; try that in the UK), and huge foreign currency reserves built up to hold down the THB. This cannot continue indefinitely, with the BoT taking the losses, the THB has to appreciate against western currencies.

The UK government is also not interested in expats and their problems. They are trying to boost exports and increase local demand by ensuring the currency does not appreciate.

I have to agree with MJP, we are now heading to the next slot down, and 43-46 looks about right. If the UK does not pull its socks and interest rates up, then the next move is a band beneath that.

It can't be doing much for those of you on fixed pensions - and the outlook is no brighter.

[12DrinkMore]

It can't be doing much for those of you on fixed pensions - and the outlook is no brighter.

Unfortunately the term "fixed" applies to the UK state pension for all those resident in Thailand.

[JimsKnight]

It can't be doing much for those of you on fixed pensions - and the outlook is no brighter.

Unfortunately the term "fixed" applies to the UK state pension for all those resident in Thailand.

The times of plenty are over it seems...

[billd766]

As far as I'm aware there really isn't any way of producing a reliable chart over a meaningful period of time, let alone predicting from it. 3 reasons, the baht was pegged at a very artificial rate for a number of years, the Thai baht underwent an atypical plummet a good decade ago, and the pound has done similar now. Anybody who thinks that it is possible to drawn a nice straight line through that lot is indeed a candidate for the loony bin.>>>>

Where he may no doubt share lodgings with anyone in the 32 baht to the pound camp. Correct me if I'm wrong but this would predict near parity with the dollar!!! This could compromise Thailand's price competitiveness just a smidgen.

I'll guess at 45-50 bt to the pound over the next year. The currency under most pressure IMHO willl be the Euro.

I agree that using historical charts of a currency pair is not going to be a useful tool in forecasting future rates, although not entirely for the reasons you state.

To state the blindingly obvious, the exchange rate between a pair of currencies is dependent on the relative flow in and out of them. This is influenced by trade, investment, speculation and political interference.

1. Trade, anybody seen any UK made produce in the shops recently? Apart from a few food items in Tesco I haven't.

2. Investment, Thailand is hiking interest rates. BKK will give you 2.25%. The UK is not likely to raise interest rates for a long time. Investment money is flowing into Asia because it is cheaper and easier to manufacture in Asia than in the west.

3. Speculation, the general speculative flow is into Asian currencies and countries.

4. Political interference, QE, zero interest rates, massive debt and huge obstacles to small businesses in the UK has to be set against the strong Thai banking sector, little government interference in industry and small start ups (anybody can open up a street food stall and sell stuff anywhere; try that in the UK), and huge foreign currency reserves built up to hold down the THB. This cannot continue indefinitely, with the BoT taking the losses, the THB has to appreciate against western currencies.

The UK government is also not interested in expats and their problems. They are trying to boost exports and increase local demand by ensuring the currency does not appreciate.

I have to agree with MJP, we are now heading to the next slot down, and 43-46 looks about right. If the UK does not pull its socks and interest rates up, then the next move is a band beneath that.

It can't be doing much for those of you on fixed pensions - and the outlook is no brighter.

Errr no it doesn't do too much certainly not for me anyway.

[Naam]

The currency under most pressure IMHO willl be the Euro.

a lot of famous "anals" from famous financial institutions disagree. personally, as usual, i refrain from making any predictions on any currency or currency pair.

and the €UR too disagrees.

EURTHB one month ago 39.81 / today 42.41 +6.5%

EURUSD one month ago 1.29 / today 1.384 +7.0%

[ThaiPauly]

Well the baht has broken 50 to the GBP today.

So thats's good news for us Brits compared to what we have been used to getting for the last 6 months or so

Will it be over 50 24 hours from now ???????

Who knows

[Naam]

Well the baht has broken 50 to the GBP today.

So thats's good news for us Brits compared to what we have been used to getting for the last 6 months or so

Will it be over 50 24 hours from now ???????

Who knows

the 50 was short lived, let's hope we see it soon again.