While We Thais Can, Let's Enjoy The Calm Before The Storm

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STOPPAGE TIME

While we can, let's enjoy the calm before the storm

By Tulsathit Taptim

The Nation

Abhisit Vejjajiva posing for media photos with all-smiles taxi-motorcyclists? Now, that's the way we are supposed to kick-start 2011. To make it better, Thaksin Shinawatra's Sunday evening phone-in to Red demonstrators at Ratchaprasong seemed to have "Don't let those shameless, populist copycat experts fool you, and here I come to steal their headlines" written all over it.

Let's just hope politics stays this way for the rest of the year. We need a big break, and if that means being bombarded with modified or cloned versions of populism and being anxious all year long about where the welfare money is going to come from, then so be it. The election promises to be very exciting, as every contest in which neither side can afford to lose is supposed to be. After last year, you couldn't ask for more.

The Democrats will be out to de-fang the red shirts and Thaksin. A poll victory (of course, it has to be clean) will rid the movement of its key ammunition, making future Ratchaprasong blockades a somewhat less justifiable undertaking. The Democrats' rivals, on the other hand, can't let that happen. The Pheu Thai Party, the red shirts and Thaksin do not want to "do a yellow shirt", which they have condemned all along, thus the only way to avoid trying to overthrow a "legitimate" government is to become a "legitimate" government themselves.

The red shirts can still play the "justice" card if the next government is again led by the new friend of taxi-motorcyclists. Thaksin hinted during his brief phone-in that such a campaign would be the case if Pheu Thai fails in the general election. But again, if the red shirts have found an "illegitimate" Abhisit to be a handful, an Abhisit who is "elected by the people" could be even harder to deal with.

What can help propel an "illegitimate" Abhisit to that much-wanted election immunity is, of course, the nine-point social welfare package announced on Sunday and similar steps taken earlier. However, also keep your eyes on the ongoing constitutional amendment issue, as it could have a big say on which direction our politics goes. The two formulas being pondered - 400 constituency MPs plus 100 party list MPs, or 375 constituency MPs plus 125 party list MPs - could lead us down different paths.

The reason why is simple: The 400:100 ratio gives more importance to the "knock-out" or "winner-takes-all" fights, so Pheu Thai and the smaller parties love it. This system gives Pheu Thai, in particular, 400 such battles, in which its candidates can beat opponents by just a couple of hundred votes, emerge the winners, and leave the losers with nothing. With the Northeast having the biggest number of constituencies, Pheu Thai naturally does not want to change this winning environment.

The 375:125 ratio reduces the number of "knock-out" fights all across the country, but the Northeast, being the biggest region, would lose more constituencies than others. Pheu Thai would still reap the most party list votes in the Northeast, but party list votes in the region will also mean more to the Democrats.

Abhisit's party may argue that the 375:125 system would also benefit Pheu Thai and other parties in the Democrat-dominated South and Bangkok. There is no avoiding the fact, though, that the proposed formula would take four and two constituency seats from the South and Bangkok respectively, while the Northeast and North, both Pheu Thai strongholds, would lose a combined 16 constituency seats (nine plus seven, respectively).

Now you see what the fuss is all about. The two systems are expected to yield different results. All parties may win more or fewer seats under each system. Assuming it will be a tight race, the systems could even produce different winners.

The Democrats scored a narrow victory yesterday in the ad hoc vetting committee, which voted 18-17 to embrace the 375:125 model. The real battle, though, will be fought on the parliamentary floor, where Pheu Thai, which boycotted the vetting panel, is certain to flex its muscles. Unless a sizeable number of senators are on their side, the Democrats will face an uphill task trying to ram the bill through.

When was the last time our politics was all about counting numbers? In late 2008 maybe, when Abhisit's "illegitimate" term began. At that time his opponents insisted they saw the military's shadow in the background, and we subsequently have had two turbulent years. Surely, it can't get any better with the orange outfits of taxi-motorcyclists adorning newspapers' front pages as this year starts, can it?

-- The Nation 2011-01-12

[asiawatcher]

Abhisit can become the consummate salesperson to the back bone of the transport behind the red shirt rabble, the motor bike taxis. And one he has their confidence and/or support, there could actually be a few good changes. Go for it Mr PM.

[bulmercke]

Abhisit can become the consummate salesperson to the back bone of the transport behind the red shirt rabble, the motor bike taxis. And one he has their confidence and/or support, there could actually be a few good changes. Go for it Mr PM.

Do you really believe they'll switch just like that? Never in a million years. The majority of motor bike taxis are Red and will remain that way for a very long time to come despite what PR exercises or government sponsored sweeteners may or may not come their way.

[Insight]

Abhisit can become the consummate salesperson to the back bone of the transport behind the red shirt rabble, the motor bike taxis. And one he has their confidence and/or support, there could actually be a few good changes. Go for it Mr PM.

Do you really believe they'll switch just like that? Never in a million years. The majority of motor bike taxis are Red and will remain that way for a very long time to come despite what PR exercises or government sponsored sweeteners may or may not come their way.

I remember when I first got here several years ago - the same was being said about another very prominent figure in Thailand (and still is by all means). Didn't imagine back then for a second we'd see anything like we've seen over the past 24 months.

Moral of the story: money talks.

[SomTumTiger]

Abhisit can become the consummate salesperson to the back bone of the transport behind the red shirt rabble, the motor bike taxis. And one he has their confidence and/or support, there could actually be a few good changes. Go for it Mr PM.

Do you really believe they'll switch just like that? Never in a million years. The majority of motor bike taxis are Red and will remain that way for a very long time to come despite what PR exercises or government sponsored sweeteners may or may not come their way.

I remember when I first got here several years ago - the same was being said about another very prominent figure in Thailand (and still is by all means). Didn't imagine back then for a second we'd see anything like we've seen over the past 24 months.

Moral of the story: money talks.

There are no permanent friends or enemies in politics, and to think that the motor cycle taxis will go against their own self interest, to support a dying cause, is silly.