Observers Struggling To Gauge PAD Intentions

[webfact]

Observers struggling to gauge PAD intentions

By Pravit Rojanaphruk

The Nation

Red shirts and critics of the yellow shirts reacted with caution and doubt as the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) launched its anti-government demonstration on Tuesday. Some feel the PAD has become disillusioned with the Abhisit Vejjajiva government, others refuse to believe the protest is for real and say the yellow shirts have tricks up their sleeves.

There are also those who believe the capture and trial of seven Thais in a disputed border area, which led to this week's PAD protest, was an attempt to draw the Thai military into staging yet another coup. One of them is Sirote Klampaiboon, a political scientist at Mahidol University.

Sirote said he believed some generals felt they did not need the government any longer and might hatch a plot with the PAD to exploit the Thai-Cambodian conflict. Nevertheless, not all the middle class, who comprise the PAD's support base, agree with military intervention.

Judging by the situation so far, Sirote believes the yellow shirts will not succeed in overthrowing the Abhisit government either through protest or setting the stage for a coup, however.

Noi, a well-educated red shirt who asked for her name to be withheld to protect her position as a government official, said she didn't trust the PAD's intentions. She was especially suspicious of the organisation's leaders like Sondhi Limthongkul, whom she described as manipulative and driven by the interests of the yellow-shirt New Politics Party.

Noi said the reds were watching the "show" with amusement, however, referring to the thousands of yellow shirts who have gathered at Makkhawan Bridge to demand the government act tough on Cambodia.

She said it was possible the PAD wanted to stir ultra-nationalist sentiment and create the climate for a military coup, though she couldn't be sure.

"It could be just a charade," she said, adding that some red shirts have visited the yellow-shirt site to take photos and observe.

Even if the yellow shirts are serious, said Noi, they would probably fail to oust the government.

Many observers have noted that the protest could bring out mixed feelings among PAD members, many of whom are also supporters to the Democrat Party. On Tuesday night PAD co-leader Pipop Thongchai addressed the crowd and urged PAD supporters in the South, who are mostly loyal to the Democrats, to try to separate criticism of the government "for the nation's sake" from their loyalty to the party.

Others say many middle-aged PAD supporters are also big fans of Abhisit and won't be showing up at the protest site anytime soon.

Noi said the Cambodian border dispute was not a sound basis for the protest. "When they opposed Thaksin, many really hated him. I see this issue as absurd."

A more nuanced reaction came from June 24 group red-shirt leader Somyos Prueksakasemsuk, who is also editor of Thai Red News. Somyos said the PAD had the constitutional right to protest, adding that the government should take a long hard look at itself now that both the yellow and red shirts were on the streets opposing it.

Political activist Pokpong Laowansiri said he believed the yellow shirts and the government had not truly parted company and become enemies yet and the issue was unlikely to rouse many supporters.

However, one thing that was not changing, said Pokpong, was the "distorted" portrayal of the red shirts by yellow-shirt media.

-- The Nation 2011-01-27

[jayjay0]

Kinda makes me want to cry when I read this part

"A more nuanced reaction came from June 24 group red-shirt leader Somyos Prueksakasemsuk, who is also editor of Thai Red News. Somyos said the PAD had the constitutional right to protest, adding that the government should take a long hard look at itself now that both the yellow and red shirts were on the streets opposing it."

It makes no difference what the government does it will always be opposed by some one and they will have there own set of facts to back them up.

To continuasly take to the streets just interferes in the lives of other people. these clowns know that they are not going to get there way and they know the government knows what they want. There actions serve no purpose other than to interfere with other peoples lives.

It would be nice if the Yellow and red shirts could for once work for the betterment of Thailand and let there leaders do there own dirty work.

[asiawatcher]

There is no real reason for Yellows to demonstrate at all. None. This is all posturing and certainly grasping at straws. Ok you've had you demonstration, you've made your point - you have numbers and you vote (yawn) so go home and let the rest of us Bangkokians live in relative peace until the next round of stupidity arises.

[virtualtraveller]

The UDD will surely be wringing the hands over this one 'see everyone hates the government, even it's own allies'.

But this is quite a political gamble for the PAD, they have neither the numbers, nor the moral basis for seriously taking on the government. If the reds couldn't force them out after Ratchaprasong then all the PAD stand to do is make a nuisance of themselves and create unnecessary pressure for the government leading up to the next election. Frankly it's suicidal, at best they will demonstrate that they do still have the numbers, at worst they will weaken the democrats election chances by wrong footing them over this standoff, thus opening the door to a Thaksin-clique return.

I think it's all going to backfire spectacularly on them. With their own political party (the NPP) and a looming election, the PAD are likely to piss off everyone except their hardcore support group that is not really centred on any one constituency or region. They won't undermine the Dems in their Bangkok and Southern strongholds, the electorate are likely to disapprove a yet another protest (and one with a very unreasonable, and frankly trivial cause), and this may well be the PAD's fatal moment. Come the next election they will soon discover how little influence they have at the polls, now that they've stooped to the new lows set by the UDD.

They've made a massive misjudgement.

[yellow1red1]

driven by the interests of the yellow-shirt New Politics Party.

BINGO