Egypt & Tunisia - A Road Map For The Reds & Yellows?

[CosmicSurfer]

How soon will it be before the examples being set right now in North Africa will be distorted in an attempt to excuse the actions of the Reds and Yellows here?

No matter the Levels of Corruption, the Discriminatory Disparities and the Suppression of Rights and Freedoms that exists in Thailand, nothing here has reached the levels of the Mid-East and North Africa.

But how long before someone here tries to manipulate the ignorance of the general populace to equate the situations as an excuse to start more trouble?

And which side will move First????

CS

[PlanetX]

A road map for the world

[Ulysses G.]

But how long before someone here tries to manipulate the ignorance of the general populace to equate the situations as an excuse to start more trouble?

Haven't certain parties been doing that for a while now?

[whybother]

Tunisia "operated as a republic under the authoritarian regime of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali who governed from 1987 to 2011".

"Since 1981, Egypt has been ruled autocratically by Mohamed Hosni Mubarak"

If Thaksin had stayed in power in 2006, there might have been some similarities. Other than that, is Thailand anything like Tunisia or Egypt?

[colinscarr]

The uprising in Tunisia was a spontaneous grassroots reaction. The people were fed up to the back teeth with a corrupt dictator who, with his cronies, was fiercely repressing & fleecing the people.

The current uprising in Egypt, apparently triggered by the Tunisian example, is a similar grassroots respose to oppression and corruption.

By contrast, the yellow and red shirt protest in Thailand are top down movements. The 2006 Bangkok protests were a genuine outpouring of disgust at Thaksin rigging the system so he paid no tax on the huge profit from selling Shin Corp to Themasek. But very quickly the movement was directed to the overthrow of Thaksin not because of his corrupt behaviour but because it offered the chance to get his snout out of the trough and get other elite snouts INTO the trough.

[geriatrickid]

The demographics are very different. The population group most likely to engage in violent uprisings is male and aged between 15 and 30. Look at the national percentages; Egypt 30%, Tunisia 27%, Thailand 23.5%.

Now factor in national unemployment; Egypt- 9.4%, Tunisia - 14%, Thailand 1.5%. If one focuses in on the under 30 age segment, some estimates offer 50% for Egypt, 25% for Tunisia and 5% for Thailand.

Thailand's population is aging. There is a labour shortage. Although food costs are increasing, people can still afford to eat. These characteristics do not promote civil unrest. In the middle East there is a large youth population, limited job prospects and food is becoming so expensive the poor can not eat.

I offer that one of the reasons the protests in Thailand have not been as bloody as elsewhere is due in large part to the older age of the protestors. Yes, there will always be violent people, but most 40 year olds are not willing to take a bullet in the head for a political position. It's easier to do when one is 20 and has the youthful characteristic of not having fear.

[Beetlejuice]

But how long before someone here tries to manipulate the ignorance of the general populace to equate the situations as an excuse to start more trouble?

Haven't certain parties been doing that for a while now?

Absolutely spot on.

There are certain factions here in Thailand that has been trying to plunge this country into civil war ever since Thaksin was ousted from Government.

So far the masses have not fallen for all the tripe and propaganda and have seen through all the BS preached by these self appointed warmongers whose real motives are to gain power of Thailand and run the show themselves.

Hopefully the main population will continue to not play ball with these people, otherwise who knows what could happen in the future.

[Arkady]

Some people like the Marxist Australian social scientist, Jim Taylor, are trying make a connection between the Tunisian and Egyptian uprisings and a red shirt revolution. Here is his dialectical rant on the red shirts' US website http://illinoisredshirts.blogspot.com/2011/01/are-thailands-red-shirts-ready-for.html . It's quite a stretch as the red shirts are largely funded by some one who clearly wants to get back into power so he can behave as a corrupt despot like Ben Ali and Mubarak. Anyway I think the Marxist crackpots like Jim Taylor and fellow traveller, Giles Unkgaporn, would be the first to be disappointed by a second Thaksin regime. The Marxists always believe they will have enough power to liquidate fascist and revisionist allies after the revolution but it is much more likely that Thaksin would liquidate them! Perhaps Taylor should be dealt with like the English larger lout, Jeff Savage, who threatened to burn down Central World on Youtube, and shipped back to Oz permanently for his own good. I hear the abbos down there need some help dealing with oppression from white settlers like Taylor.

[JurgenG]

The uprising in Tunisia was a spontaneous grassroots reaction. The people were fed up to the back teeth with a corrupt dictator who, with his cronies, was fiercely repressing & fleecing the people.

The current uprising in Egypt, apparently triggered by the Tunisian example, is a similar grassroots respose to oppression and corruption.

By contrast, the yellow and red shirt protest in Thailand are top down movements.

You nailed it

Can anybody here states what difference the coup and the following elections made in there everyday life ? As far as I'm concerned, none whatsoever. And as far as the West is concerned, it's business as usual

In Tunisia and Egypt, a "true" democracy may bring some nasty surprises to the West in the form of the emergence of grassroots Islamist party not particularly western friendly.

[craigt3365]

The uprising in Tunisia was a spontaneous grassroots reaction. The people were fed up to the back teeth with a corrupt dictator who, with his cronies, was fiercely repressing & fleecing the people.

The current uprising in Egypt, apparently triggered by the Tunisian example, is a similar grassroots respose to oppression and corruption.

By contrast, the yellow and red shirt protest in Thailand are top down movements.

You nailed it

Can anybody here states what difference the coup and the following elections made in there everyday life ? As far as I'm concerned, none whatsoever. And as far as the West is concerned, it's business as usual

In Tunisia and Egypt, a "true" democracy may bring some nasty surprises to the West in the form of the emergence of grassroots Islamist party not particularly western friendly.

I'm ever the optimist...I did see a recent article on corruption in Thailand. Basically saying it is still horrible, but less so than during the Thaksin/Thaksin cronies governments. So...hopefully...Thailand is moving in the right direction. As usual, there is lots of banter about cleaning up government. I will believe it when the police are reformed. Until then, nothing will change.

[JurgenG]

The uprising in Tunisia was a spontaneous grassroots reaction. The people were fed up to the back teeth with a corrupt dictator who, with his cronies, was fiercely repressing & fleecing the people.

The current uprising in Egypt, apparently triggered by the Tunisian example, is a similar grassroots respose to oppression and corruption.

By contrast, the yellow and red shirt protest in Thailand are top down movements.

You nailed it

Can anybody here states what difference the coup and the following elections made in there everyday life ? As far as I'm concerned, none whatsoever. And as far as the West is concerned, it's business as usual

In Tunisia and Egypt, a "true" democracy may bring some nasty surprises to the West in the form of the emergence of grassroots Islamist party not particularly western friendly.

I'm ever the optimist...I did see a recent article on corruption in Thailand. Basically saying it is still horrible, but less so than during the Thaksin/Thaksin cronies governments. So...hopefully...Thailand is moving in the right direction. As usual, there is lots of banter about cleaning up government. I will believe it when the police are reformed. Until then, nothing will change.

At the origin I supported the democrats, mostly because it's what my gf and all our friends do, but I've been so disappointed by them since the first PAD demonstration and as I said, it makes absolutely no difference in my everyday life whoever is in charge that Thaksin could come back, I couldn't care less.

But what happen in the middle east is going to bring changes, that's for sure, Things are changing in the middle east, but also in Asia and South America and I hope one day in Africa too. The old order, how comfortable it was for us, couldn't last for ever.

[Berkshire]

In relation to Thailand, I did watch a CNN piece that suggested that Mubarak's biggest supporters were the rural poor. That sounds familiar. Do corrupt dictators always use the same playbook? Seriously, this is a complicated and volatile issue which I'm sure our esteemed TV readership is aware. Israel is sh*tting in their pants right now. And if Israel has a problem, America has a problem. And if America has a problem,....well, you know the rest.

[bonobo]

In Tunisia and Egypt, a "true" democracy may bring some nasty surprises to the West in the form of the emergence of grassroots Islamist party not particularly western friendly.

This has been a recurring theme on Public Radio in the US. I think there is a lot of truth to it.

[powderpuff]

I think the tipping point in Egypt was Hosni grooming his son to take over, just like Iraq under Saddam, Syria pop to mind. Maybe North Korea.

Agreed a democracy movement in Egypt may well indeed see a Hamas type government elected. Kiss the peace process goodbye. No similarities to Thailand.

[mark45y]

Tunisia "operated as a republic under the authoritarian regime of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali who governed from 1987 to 2011".

"Since 1981, Egypt has been ruled autocratically by Mohamed Hosni Mubarak"

If Thaksin had stayed in power in 2006, there might have been some similarities. Other than that, is Thailand anything like Tunisia or Egypt?

As long as the Thai people do not realize they have been ruled by a military government since the 1930's I don't see a problem. And since even the smart folk on Thai Visa do not realize this fact I see little to worry about.

[gregb]

Tunisia "operated as a republic under the authoritarian regime of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali who governed from 1987 to 2011".

"Since 1981, Egypt has been ruled autocratically by Mohamed Hosni Mubarak"

If Thaksin had stayed in power in 2006, there might have been some similarities. Other than that, is Thailand anything like Tunisia or Egypt?

As long as the Thai people do not realize they have been ruled by a military government since the 1930's I don't see a problem. And since even the smart folk on Thai Visa do not realize this fact I see little to worry about.

That's not fair at all mark45y. We are all very aware of the influence the military has in Thailand.

The problem is that the military are the most responsible people with influence in the government. I see no reason to want them completely marginalized. They are the ones protecting democracy from would be dictators like Thaksin.

[mark45y]

Tunisia "operated as a republic under the authoritarian regime of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali who governed from 1987 to 2011".

"Since 1981, Egypt has been ruled autocratically by Mohamed Hosni Mubarak"

If Thaksin had stayed in power in 2006, there might have been some similarities. Other than that, is Thailand anything like Tunisia or Egypt?

As long as the Thai people do not realize they have been ruled by a military government since the 1930's I don't see a problem. And since even the smart folk on Thai Visa do not realize this fact I see little to worry about.

That's not fair at all mark45y. We are all very aware of the influence the military has in Thailand.

The problem is that the military are the most responsible people with influence in the government. I see no reason to want them completely marginalized. They are the ones protecting democracy from would be dictators like Thaksin.

A military dictatorship protecting the Democracy?

I think you mean a military dictatorship protecting a military dictatorship pretending to be a Democracy.

In a Democracy people get to vote for their leaders.

In a dictatorship leaders are appointed by people be they responsible or not.

Sometimes in a military dictatorship the people appointed by the military get too big for their britches and are booted out and replaced by other people. That is called a coup.

I think we are going to see shortly in Egypt people take office that are favored by the majority but who are bad people. The same thing would happen in Thailand if the people were allowed to vote for the people they wanted to vote for. So the party that the people want to vote for is outlawed and the people who want to vote for that party are called dumb farmers. Probably valid in both cases. The party acted illegally and the people sell their votes.

But one can't help but think it will occur to some of those dumb people in Thailand that the dumb people in Egypt got their choice of leaders simply because they were in the majority. That is a Democracy. The majority rules even though the democracy is dumb. Even dumb people can grasp this concept.

I had a conversation with a very well educated member of the yellow people who told me with a straight face that the Thai people were not ready for freedom of the press. He actually thought he could control the press and that the people would not mind. Egypt thinks so too.

[gregb]

As long as the Thai people do not realize they have been ruled by a military government since the 1930's I don't see a problem. And since even the smart folk on Thai Visa do not realize this fact I see little to worry about.

That's not fair at all mark45y. We are all very aware of the influence the military has in Thailand.

The problem is that the military are the most responsible people with influence in the government. I see no reason to want them completely marginalized. They are the ones protecting democracy from would be dictators like Thaksin.

A military dictatorship protecting the Democracy?

I think you mean a military dictatorship protecting a military dictatorship pretending to be a Democracy.

In a Democracy people get to vote for their leaders.

No offence mark45y, but you clearly have no idea what a military dictatorship is. If you believe Thailand is a military dictatorship, I suggest you move to Burma so you can see the difference.

Thailand is a very free country, and the military helps to protect that freedom, whether you wish to admit that or not. There are many styles of democracy. One thing that is for certain. Thaksin the tyrant did not stand for democracy or freedom. As long as that cretin is standing by ready to enslave the country, I will accept the protecting influence of the military.

Democracy doesn't function in the presence of a demagogue. The ancient Greeks learned that millenia ago. I'm surprised you haven't. Perhaps that is what your learned yellow colleague meant? Maybe you should try listening more closely.

[mark45y]

As long as the Thai people do not realize they have been ruled by a military government since the 1930's I don't see a problem. And since even the smart folk on Thai Visa do not realize this fact I see little to worry about.

That's not fair at all mark45y. We are all very aware of the influence the military has in Thailand.

The problem is that the military are the most responsible people with influence in the government. I see no reason to want them completely marginalized. They are the ones protecting democracy from would be dictators like Thaksin.

A military dictatorship protecting the Democracy?

I think you mean a military dictatorship protecting a military dictatorship pretending to be a Democracy.

In a Democracy people get to vote for their leaders.

No offence mark45y, but you clearly have no idea what a military dictatorship is. If you believe Thailand is a military dictatorship, I suggest you move to Burma so you can see the difference.

Thailand is a very free country, and the military helps to protect that freedom, whether you wish to admit that or not. There are many styles of democracy. One thing that is for certain. Thaksin the tyrant did not stand for democracy or freedom. As long as that cretin is standing by ready to enslave the country, I will accept the protecting influence of the military.

Democracy doesn't function in the presence of a demagogue. The ancient Greeks learned that millenia ago. I'm surprised you haven't. Perhaps that is what your learned yellow colleague meant? Maybe you should try listening more closely.

I think I said in another post that Thailand has nothing to fear because they have convinced most Thais and even some Falang that Thailand is not ruled by a military dictatorship. You are a good example. Many on Thai Visa would agree with you. I can't even discuss it without violating Thai law and Thai Visa policy. It's a wrap. Free countries have no need to censor the press. You can match freedom and democracy with freedom of the press measurements anyplace on the net. Try it and get back to me. And before you give me the standard Wikileaks response post your email passwords at the same time.

[Berkshire]

As long as the Thai people do not realize they have been ruled by a military government since the 1930's I don't see a problem. And since even the smart folk on Thai Visa do not realize this fact I see little to worry about.

That's not fair at all mark45y. We are all very aware of the influence the military has in Thailand.

The problem is that the military are the most responsible people with influence in the government. I see no reason to want them completely marginalized. They are the ones protecting democracy from would be dictators like Thaksin.

Greg's right, Mark, you're way out in left field. You're in danger of sounding like one of those far-right nutcases in America who are convinced that Jews are running the country. No amount of evidence can convince them otherwise. Fact is, there is a huge difference between having "significant influence" on government policy and actually "running the country." The Jewish lobby in America and the Thai military both have "significant influence" on their respective government's policy decision-making. Neither are running the country. As Greg says, all you have to do is look north to Myanmar to see what a genuine military dictatorship is like. Surely you can see that Thailand and Myanmar are not the same....not even close.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

Tunisia "operated as a republic under the authoritarian regime of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali who governed from 1987 to 2011".

"Since 1981, Egypt has been ruled autocratically by Mohamed Hosni Mubarak"

If Thaksin had stayed in power in 2006, there might have been some similarities. Other than that, is Thailand anything like Tunisia or Egypt?

Yes.

You're comparing apples to oranges. Thailand has had various prime ministers. So have countries in the Middle East. Secondly: "If Thaksin had stayed in power.." assumes that he was every in power. As evidenced by the events on 19 September 2006, he never was, just like any other Thai (or Middle Eastern) prime minister before or since.

[Thaddeus]

As long as the Thai people do not realize they have been ruled by a military government since the 1930's I don't see a problem. And since even the smart folk on Thai Visa do not realize this fact I see little to worry about.

That's not fair at all mark45y. We are all very aware of the influence the military has in Thailand.

The problem is that the military are the most responsible people with influence in the government. I see no reason to want them completely marginalized. They are the ones protecting democracy from would be dictators like Thaksin.

Greg's right, Mark, you're way out in left field.

Wrong, although it pains me somewhat to say it but Mark is right. Thailand is to all intents and purposes a military dictator ship in everything but name, it just manages to not have the look and feel of one.

And by that token bears no resemblance to what is happening further west.

[JurgenG]

As long as the Thai people do not realize they have been ruled by a military government since the 1930's I don't see a problem. And since even the smart folk on Thai Visa do not realize this fact I see little to worry about.

That's not fair at all mark45y. We are all very aware of the influence the military has in Thailand.

The problem is that the military are the most responsible people with influence in the government. I see no reason to want them completely marginalized. They are the ones protecting democracy from would be dictators like Thaksin.

A military dictatorship protecting the Democracy?

I think you mean a military dictatorship protecting a military dictatorship pretending to be a Democracy.

In a Democracy people get to vote for their leaders.

No offence mark45y, but you clearly have no idea what a military dictatorship is. If you believe Thailand is a military dictatorship, I suggest you move to Burma so you can see the difference.

Thailand is a very free country, and the military helps to protect that freedom, whether you wish to admit that or not. There are many styles of democracy. One thing that is for certain. Thaksin the tyrant did not stand for democracy or freedom. As long as that cretin is standing by ready to enslave the country, I will accept the protecting influence of the military.

Democracy doesn't function in the presence of a demagogue. The ancient Greeks learned that millenia ago. I'm surprised you haven't. Perhaps that is what your learned yellow colleague meant? Maybe you should try listening more closely.

Sorry, but even if I don't always agree with people choice I've to agree with Marks definition

In a Democracy people get to vote for their leaders.

Just need to add : and this vote is respected by all parties

[mark45y]

As long as the Thai people do not realize they have been ruled by a military government since the 1930's I don't see a problem. And since even the smart folk on Thai Visa do not realize this fact I see little to worry about.

That's not fair at all mark45y. We are all very aware of the influence the military has in Thailand.

The problem is that the military are the most responsible people with influence in the government. I see no reason to want them completely marginalized. They are the ones protecting democracy from would be dictators like Thaksin.

Greg's right, Mark, you're way out in left field.

Wrong, although it pains me somewhat to say it but Mark is right. Thailand is to all intents and purposes a military dictator ship in everything but name, it just manages to not have the look and feel of one.

And by that token bears no resemblance to what is happening further west.

Thanks for the somewhat pained vote of confidence.

The evidence is really overwhelming.

Military coups in Thailand: 1932, 1933, 1947, 1951, 1957, 1976, 1977, 1981, 1985, 1991, 2006.

Freedom of the press? Judicial system?

Leave America out of the equation because of the strong feelings here about that but look at other Democracies. Compare them to Thailand .

Compare freedom of speech and the rule of law and the number of military coups.

Thailand has a good PR department. It even convinces otherwise intelligent posters on Thai Visa that Thailand is not a military dictatorship.

But the evidence is simply overwhelming to the contrary.

[whybother]

Thanks for the somewhat pained vote of confidence.

The evidence is really overwhelming.

Military coups in Thailand: 1932, 1933, 1947, 1951, 1957, 1976, 1977, 1981, 1985, 1991, 2006.

Freedom of the press? Judicial system?

Leave America out of the equation because of the strong feelings here about that but look at other Democracies. Compare them to Thailand .

Compare freedom of speech and the rule of law and the number of military coups.

Thailand has a good PR department. It even convinces otherwise intelligent posters on Thai Visa that Thailand is not a military dictatorship.

But the evidence is simply overwhelming to the contrary.

Corrupt: Yes. Military Dictatorship: I don't think so.

At what point, in your scenario, would it move from a military dictatorship to a democracy?

[mark45y]

Thanks for the somewhat pained vote of confidence.

The evidence is really overwhelming.

Military coups in Thailand: 1932, 1933, 1947, 1951, 1957, 1976, 1977, 1981, 1985, 1991, 2006.

Freedom of the press? Judicial system?

Leave America out of the equation because of the strong feelings here about that but look at other Democracies. Compare them to Thailand .

Compare freedom of speech and the rule of law and the number of military coups.

Thailand has a good PR department. It even convinces otherwise intelligent posters on Thai Visa that Thailand is not a military dictatorship.

But the evidence is simply overwhelming to the contrary.

Corrupt: Yes. Military Dictatorship: I don't think so.

At what point, in your scenario, would it move from a military dictatorship to a democracy?

Perhaps you can point out a democracy that has had 11 recent military coups and enforces press censorship and has had 17 different constitutions and charters in recent memory.

I don't ever see Thailand changing from a military dictatorship to a democracy. Sorry I can't discuss why and neither can you so lets leave why out of the discussion and concentrate on what is.

[SomTumTiger]

But how long before someone here tries to manipulate the ignorance of the general populace to equate the situations as an excuse to start more trouble?

Haven't certain parties been doing that for a while now?

Ulysses is right, they have tried. But on the red and yellow sides, they don't get decent crowds without payment, or a really incessent dictator stealing billions (i.e., our favorite squarehead)

[Thaddeus]

Thanks for the somewhat pained vote of confidence.

The pain was caused by the content of the message and not the identity of the messenger.

[craigt3365]

A few off topic posts were deleted. This is about Egypt/Tunisia/reds/yellows...but not about the USA and their political system. Thank goodness!!!

[sabaijai]

Tunisia "operated as a republic under the authoritarian regime of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali who governed from 1987 to 2011".

"Since 1981, Egypt has been ruled autocratically by Mohamed Hosni Mubarak"

If Thaksin had stayed in power in 2006, there might have been some similarities. Other than that, is Thailand anything like Tunisia or Egypt?

As long as the Thai people do not realize they have been ruled by a military government since the 1930's I don't see a problem. And since even the smart folk on Thai Visa do not realize this fact I see little to worry about.