Thai Military Coup Remark Stems From Reds' Doubts

[webfact]

BURNING ISSUE

Coup remark stems from reds' doubts

By Avudh Panananda

The Nation

Under the Constitution, Thai citizens are duty-bound to uphold and safeguard democracy, yet speculation persists about another power seizure.

People here talk about the coup like it's the common cold, even though military intervention can snuff out democracy.

The last coup took place in September 2006, and soon after the December 2007 election, held to restore democracy, rumours spread again about the next power seizure.

A "silent coup" was said to have occurred in 2008, when top military leaders appeared live on television to demand the departure of the Somchai Wongsawat government.

Tanks did not roll out on the streets because the Somchai government collapsed over electoral fraud. Then the most curious thing started happening - negotiations to form the Abhisit Vejjajiva government started taking place inside the military barracks.

Last week, Pheu Thai MP Jatuporn Promphan called attention to what he claimed was a coup plot. All sides joined the fray, offering their views - some said it was a figment of Jatuporn's imagination, while some conceded the possibility of various coup scenarios.

Unfortunately, no military leaders, coalition politicians, opposition members or commentators of various political shades came out to condemn the idea of a coup.

Army chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha said he was bored with the never-ending speculation, while Prime Minister Abhisit said he was sure the top brass would not oust him.

Military spokesman Maj-General Ditthaporn Sasamit issued a succinct statement, saying the situation did not warrant military intervention. However, it's worth noting that he did not rule out a power seizure.

As long as Thais are willing to tolerate the use of force to grab power, speculation about coups being staged will never go away.

In order to put Jatuporn's remarks in context, the speculation can be divided into two categories - statements made for self-serving reasons and an actual warning.

If a coup is actually in the making, then those behind it are obliged to see if the forces are prepared and this is often done by running mock alerts through the Army. From February to September 2006, coup leader General Sonthi Boonyaratglin ran the troops through a number of mock exercises.

Once democracy was restored in 2007, not a single military leader invoked his discretionary power to mobilise troops. The military was only put on alert for routine training or to rein in unruly crowds under government supervision.

Remarks about a coup being planned, including those made by Jatuporn, just seem to be a move to see which way the political wind is blowing. The timing of Jatuporn's remarks might be an indication as to why he chose to comment on a power-seizure, which was not actually in the offing.

Jatuporn and his colleagues in Pheu Thai pointed out key players in this so-called coup plot, and their comments coincided with the voting on charter amendments meant to pave the way for elections.

Since politicians are gearing up for an early poll this year, it is in the interest of the main opposition party to keep an eye out for the military's reaction to the voting outcome, especially if Pheu Thai defeats the Democrats.

Despite scepticism about whether Pheu Thai will win, Jatuporn and members of the red shirts genuinely believe they have a strong chance to form the next government.

The red shirts have bitter memories about what the military did to governments led by Somchai and Samak Sundaravej, and they suspect a military clique led by Prayuth and Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwan might step in to stop Pheu Thai from forming a coalition and taking office.

Maybe they're also keen to gauge public reactions and sentiment about this clique.

Unnamed military sources keep leaking news about the possibility of a coup. Yet, Prawit's job hinges on the blessings of the prime minister, and speculation about a coup might be a means to keep his job prospects intact for a second term.

-- The Nation 2011-02-01

[animatic]

Bitter memories about what the army did to Samak?

Huh? He was tossed by the court for his own arrogant conduct,

but could have been re-elected PM next day, but was tossed by THAKSIN in favor of Bro in Law Somchai.

They did refuse to attack the PAD encampment. Having seen that the 'violence' they were told to stop was instigated by Samak's Allies, to create a situation to order an SOE. for political gain; ie BS.

Bitter memories about what the army did to Somchai?

Huh? They didn't attack PAD in the streets on his orders.

After seeing the results of the last order to attack PAD on Oct 7th, I don't blame them, it would have made Thailand either a laughing stock or pariah. And the PAD was being attacked nightly with clandestine grenade launches.

Somchai was removed from office by the courts, and again from PPP arrogance during the election cycle. They made their own bed and have to live with it.

We can of course debate the horse trading that replaced Somchai after his exit, but in the end a legal government was installed by elected MPs.

And all of this well after the actual coup and a follow up election.

This coup talk is to generate fear, and fear can be manipulated.

We do know who revels in manipulation.

Edited February 1, 2011 by animatic

[webfact]

Army Chief Denies Rumors of Another Coup

The army chief has dismissed circulating speculation that the military will carry out another coup d'etat, calling it 'nonsense.'

Army Chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha addressed the ongoing coup speculations, saying that he has never considered such 'nonsense' and asked the rumormongers to stop wrongly implicating people.

The army chief asserted that those who are spreading the rumor lack credibility and should not be taken seriously.

Prayuth believes that the current problems in the country must be solved be using legal means.

The army chief says that he has no political aspirations and that it is his responsibility as a soldier to protect the country's sovereignty and the people.

Prayuth also commented on Cambodia's national flag, which is flying inside the disputed area near the Preah Vihear Temple, pointing out that the government has already submitted their complaint to the Cambodian government and appropriate measures are being taken.

-- Tan Network 2011-02-01

[hanuman1]

Of course there's not going to be a coup. Those in effective control of the army like this government.

[whybother]

Of course there's not going to be a coup. Those in effective control of the army like this government.

And a majority of Thais also like this government, or at least, don't like the alternative.

[truethailand]

Of course there's not going to be a coup. Those in effective control of the army like this government.

And a majority of Thais also like this government, or at least, don't like the alternative.

"The grass roots red shirts have some very valid issues". Can you explain what these issues are and how you would go about correcting them....without mentioning any politician.

[whybother]

Of course there's not going to be a coup. Those in effective control of the army like this government.

And a majority of Thais also like this government, or at least, don't like the alternative.

"The grass roots red shirts have some very valid issues". Can you explain what these issues are and how you would go about correcting them....without mentioning any politician.

Why? Can't you?

[animatic]

Of course there's not going to be a coup. Those in effective control of the army like this government.

And a majority of Thais also like this government, or at least, don't like the alternative.

"The grass roots red shirts have some very valid issues". Can you explain what these issues are and how you would go about correcting them....without mentioning any politician.

Why? Can't you?

Touché!

[rubl]

Yet another 'knowledgeable' person has put in his two satang:

"The countdown to another military coup has begun, former deputy permanent secretary for defence Admiral Bannawit Kengrian said on Tuesday.

Adm Bannawit, chairman of the People's Council of Thailand, said from his long experience in military circles and security affairs he could comfortably say there would definitely be a coup."

PS He also said 'a countdown had begun to a coup, which could come in a few weeks, not a year or months.' this probably means the Chinese NewYear should still be a real holiday period

Edited February 1, 2011 by rubl

[ballpoint]

"The grass roots red shirts have some very valid issues". Can you explain what these issues are and how you would go about correcting them....without mentioning any politician.

How about giving us some links to where "grass roots" red shirts have come out and said what their issues are, and how they would go about correcting them once they get rid of the present government? If it's not about Thaksin, and not about the PTP then why aren't these grass roots reds commenting on the current governments policies, other than the same old "copying Thaksin statements" (which, for anyone with a clue, they most definitely aren't. They go much further to make long lasting changes to improve the lives of the poor, rather than just short term populist measures which got many people into even more trouble in the long term), and why aren't they negotiating with the government to address these issues? After all, if it really isn't about one man or one party then any government that helps the poor should be getting their support. The answer is of course that they don't want the Democrats to be seen as supporting the poor. That would be the end of the gravy train for many of them, and the end of the power trip for their leaders.

I see the main issues affecting the poor to be the same ones before, during and after the Thaksin years:

Education,

Land ownership,

Corruption,

Price fixing of raw rice, sugar and, to a lesser extent, rubber,

Loan traps,

Discrimination

No government has ever tried to make any real change to address any of these. Not really surprising, given that the same old rural power groups come out on top in most elections, using the greed of many to buy their short term allegiance. Just look at how few times people like Chalerm, Chavalit, Banharn and Newin have been in the opposition since the 1992 elections. They usually wriggle their way into a coalition and keep their position in the trough. Thaksin did it on a grander scale, but still had to rely on those corrupt old groupings to get power. Unfortunately, the Democrats are also forced to work with many of them, which will hinder any hope for real change. Never the less, the policies put forward by Korn, including the land tax, the crop price insurance, and the free education - although until there is a revamp of the entire system that won't do a whole lot, do set the framework to make a real change in the long term. The revealing thing is, as I said, why do the supposed red shirt grass roots spokespeople not support and work with the government to hone these policies, and suggest more, and why do their mouthpieces here not do the same? We're continually being told it's not about Thaksin, but the evidence most definitely points in his direction. Until the "grassroots" of any colour come out against the political cliques and up country power brokers, and advise their fellow poor to vote responsibly, no one can try and prove that they are anything other than part of the problem.

[bulmercke]

ballpoint - you make some good arguments in the above post - but a coup is imminent and once affected some time soon - rational and considered judgment of past and current political manoeuvrings and speculation as to why Reds are reluctant to get involved with the current administration in social projects will be rendered redundant anytime soon.

[rubl]

ballpoint - you make some good arguments in the above post - but a coup is imminent and once affected some time soon - rational and considered judgment of past and current political manoeuvrings and speculation as to why Reds are reluctant to get involved with the current administration in social projects will be rendered redundant anytime soon.

A coup is imminent? Various good reasons for and very good reasons against to be found here. All still speculation, including those rumours from not long after the elections in 2007. Don't hold your breath I'd say

[Insight]

ballpoint - you make some good arguments in the above post - but a coup is imminent and once affected some time soon - rational and considered judgment of past and current political manoeuvrings and speculation as to why Reds are reluctant to get involved with the current administration in social projects will be rendered redundant anytime soon.

Same crap, another year.

[TheyCallmeScooter]

BURNING ISSUE

Coup remark stems from reds' doubts

By Avudh Panananda

The Nation

Under the Constitution, Thai citizens are duty-bound to uphold and safeguard democracy, yet speculation persists about another power seizure.

People here talk about the coup like it's the common cold, even though military intervention can snuff out democracy.

I should have stopped at the third line but I foolishly only managed to stop imbibing drivel another 3-4 lines too late.

But did I miss anything that was logical or coherent? 555

Avudh, old buddy old pal...what's your caper? Whatever it is, you're surprisingly unimpressive at it, despite your practice at it.

[jdinasia]

ballpoint - you make some good arguments in the above post - but a coup is imminent and once affected some time soon - rational and considered judgment of past and current political manoeuvrings and speculation as to why Reds are reluctant to get involved with the current administration in social projects will be rendered redundant anytime soon.

Please tell us ... when will this coup happen? Who will it benefit? Who will carry it out?

Why the red shirt leaders won't get involved in the Dem coalition's social welfare projects is clear. If it isn't seen as coming from them/Thaksin then it doesn't benefit them.

But really ---- tell us all about the imminent coup

[jdinasia]

"The grass roots red shirts have some very valid issues". Can you explain what these issues are and how you would go about correcting them....without mentioning any politician.

I asked you why you weren't talking about social issues in the Thaksin's Lawyer thread (several times) ... I see you still aren't talking about them.

[whybother]

"The grass roots red shirts have some very valid issues". Can you explain what these issues are and how you would go about correcting them....without mentioning any politician.

I asked you why you weren't talking about social issues in the Thaksin's Lawyer thread (several times) ... I see you still aren't talking about them.

He doesn't know. That's why he needs to ask.

[Thai at Heart]

Then the most curious thing started happening - negotiations to form the Abhisit Vejjajiva government started taking place inside the military barracks.

No, surely parliament voted?

[phiphidon]

Yet another 'knowledgeable' person has put in his two satang:

"The countdown to another military coup has begun, former deputy permanent secretary for defence Admiral Bannawit Kengrian said on Tuesday.

Adm Bannawit, chairman of the People's Council of Thailand, said from his long experience in military circles and security affairs he could comfortably say there would definitely be a coup."

PS He also said 'a countdown had begun to a coup, which could come in a few weeks, not a year or months.' this probably means the Chinese NewYear should still be a real holiday period

This being the same man who last September added his two satangs worth to the discussion on the alleged assassination plot against Abhisit by stating that

"a large number of Cambodian warriors of Vietnamese descent, who had undergone military training and were great snipers, had been brought in to do the job".

Quite specific information, he must have good sources.

"Although I often criticise this government, I must warn the premier about the reports of an assassination plot against him. If he were harmed, the country's image would be ruined," he added helpfully.

[truethailand]

"The grass roots red shirts have some very valid issues". Can you explain what these issues are and how you would go about correcting them....without mentioning any politician.

I asked you why you weren't talking about social issues in the Thaksin's Lawyer thread (several times) ... I see you still aren't talking about them.

He doesn't know. That's why he needs to ask.

Just throwing out the bait for all to see. Those negative replies, not all, are the people controlling these forums .This group of posters attacks on mass like piranhas out numbering those in opposition. I would invite everybody to review what these people post, I dont hide my social values and hatred of certain people. takk included but I can only summise after reviewing some of your posts it is a concerted and orchestrated ploy to shout down others who post here free of any political agenda. Try keeping your tainted mitts of the keyboard and let others decide. Its been a sad day ever since this great website was linked to the Nation

[truethailand]

"The grass roots red shirts have some very valid issues". Can you explain what these issues are and how you would go about correcting them....without mentioning any politician.

I asked you why you weren't talking about social issues in the Thaksin's Lawyer thread (several times) ... I see you still aren't talking about them.

Show me the several times please

[jdinasia]

Just throwing out the bait for all to see. Those negative replies, not all, are the people controlling these forums .This group of posters attacks on mass like piranhas out numbering those in opposition. I would invite everybody to review what these people post, I dont hide my social values and hatred of certain people. takk included but I can only summise after reviewing some of your posts it is a concerted and orchestrated ploy to shout down others who post here free of any political agenda. Try keeping your tainted mitts of the keyboard and let others decide. Its been a sad day ever since this great website was linked to the Nation

Are you REALLY telling people NOT to post because you can't hold up your end of a discussion/debate/argument?

tainted mits?

takk?

free from an agenda? you admitted having one before --- after you were called on it)

People can read and decide on their own, it appears you want to have people that only agree with you post. That is sad.

BTW --- I showed you in that other thread where several news agencies reported on the reds threatening and harrassing reporters. Your issue isn't with The Nation (fairly poor reporting, and I think there are no longer any ties between TVF and The Nation), your issue is with people commenting on the violence and attacks by the reds that have been going on for years now.

Feel free to go back to the Thaksin's lawyer thread and see where I called you on your social agenda multiple times (Yet again you are not discussing it --- just firing away at others --) reviewing your posts shows that you have been accusing the people you disagree with of being paid to post since you joined.

The fact is, many of us that actually are in Thailand and live here long-term actually CARE about the country and hate seeing the ego of Thaksin and the violence of his reds destroying the country.

edit -----

tt you joined TVF on April 24th 2010 ----- When did TVF first associate with The Nation? something smells fishy!

Edited February 1, 2011 by jdinasia

[rubl]

Just throwing out the bait for all to see. Those negative replies, not all, are the people controlling these forums .This group of posters attacks on mass like piranhas out numbering those in opposition. I would invite everybody to review what these people post, I dont hide my social values and hatred of certain people. takk included but I can only summise after reviewing some of your posts it is a concerted and orchestrated ploy to shout down others who post here free of any political agenda. Try keeping your tainted mitts of the keyboard and let others decide. Its been a sad day ever since this great website was linked to the Nation

Just throwing out bait can be called inflammatory as well

Anyway if you really feel 'concerted and orchestrated ploy to shout down others' please feel free to report the conspiracy to the mod's

[animatic]

Thaksin's lawyer threads are about Thaksin's lawyer and his attempt to manipulate/rehabilitate Thakin's image.

Social issues of the red shirts are another topic, which has been discussed voluminously by most all involved in this thread, and most all HAVE sided with the common man and their needs for redress against inequities. But at the same time deploring Thaksin's manipulations of those very same common men and women for his own power lust.

Discussing Thaksin's lawyer is about those manipulations, and abuse of those comman men and women, by a cynical elitist in sheeples clothing; Thaksin. Trying to side track it to another subject doesn't make a point, it only makes a side tracking argument, that disingenuously attempts to label the anti-Thakin people, as anti-common man. That is patently untrue as has been discussed many times.

Edited February 1, 2011 by animatic

[jdinasia]

Ballpoint did a very thorough post about social issues in THIS thread. (yet to be answered bt tt)

the quote below is one of tt's first posts, It totally misses the point about who escalated the violence (the reds at Thaicom and the ary regiment with moloton cocktails -- the same weapons Arisaman told them they's be using in BKK. The quote below attempts to diminish the "peaceful protestors" association with men carrying field grade military ordnance including grenade launchers, sniper rifles, and assault rifles/machine guns. Oh well, he did at least admit he was pro-red from the beginning. His mantra in the first few days was "they've never been north of Don Muang" and it shifted soon to .. "they are paid to post"

Not really armed to the teeth just a few hired malitia who, when required, on April 10th moved into position and popped off mainly officers. The Army as the reds expected kakked in their kakis and retreated to avoid further blood shed. Load of cobblers, they got scared when somebody fired back (its not fair they got guns to).This protest stays peaceful until the army uses excessive force, then the reds fire back.

The despicable part of it is how it diminishes those that died (on both sides) on April 10th 2010

[wolfmanjack]

"The grass roots red shirts have some very valid issues". Can you explain what these issues are and how you would go about correcting them....without mentioning any politician.

How about giving us some links to where "grass roots" red shirts have come out and said what their issues are, and how they would go about correcting them once they get rid of the present government? If it's not about Thaksin, and not about the PTP then why aren't these grass roots reds commenting on the current governments policies, other than the same old "copying Thaksin statements" (which, for anyone with a clue, they most definitely aren't. They go much further to make long lasting changes to improve the lives of the poor, rather than just short term populist measures which got many people into even more trouble in the long term), and why aren't they negotiating with the government to address these issues? After all, if it really isn't about one man or one party then any government that helps the poor should be getting their support. The answer is of course that they don't want the Democrats to be seen as supporting the poor. That would be the end of the gravy train for many of them, and the end of the power trip for their leaders.

I see the main issues affecting the poor to be the same ones before, during and after the Thaksin years:

Education,

Land ownership,

Corruption,

Price fixing of raw rice, sugar and, to a lesser extent, rubber,

Loan traps,

Discrimination

No government has ever tried to make any real change to address any of these. Not really surprising, given that the same old rural power groups come out on top in most elections, using the greed of many to buy their short term allegiance. Just look at how few times people like Chalerm, Chavalit, Banharn and Newin have been in the opposition since the 1992 elections. They usually wriggle their way into a coalition and keep their position in the trough. Thaksin did it on a grander scale, but still had to rely on those corrupt old groupings to get power. Unfortunately, the Democrats are also forced to work with many of them, which will hinder any hope for real change. Never the less, the policies put forward by Korn, including the land tax, the crop price insurance, and the free education - although until there is a revamp of the entire system that won't do a whole lot, do set the framework to make a real change in the long term. The revealing thing is, as I said, why do the supposed red shirt grass roots spokespeople not support and work with the government to hone these policies, and suggest more, and why do their mouthpieces here not do the same? We're continually being told it's not about Thaksin, but the evidence most definitely points in his direction. Until the "grassroots" of any colour come out against the political cliques and up country power brokers, and advise their fellow poor to vote responsibly, no one can try and prove that they are anything other than part of the problem.

My kids go to a thai public school and the school is pretty darn good now. They have 4 americans that rotate through out the school year to help the 3 thai english teachers teach english. When my kids first went to this school under Thaksin they had 1 thai english teacher that could not speak english. Now i can actually carry on a conversation in english with the thai english teachers. Under Thaksin it cost me almost 2,000 baht per kid for tuition plus 12 baht per day for lunch. Now tuition is free, books are free and I get money twice a year to pay for uniforms and other supplies.

The learning process has also improved. If the kids want to know something instead of the teachers just telling them (many times the teacher is wrong anyway) they divide the class into work groups and the kids learn the answers by them selves. This teaches them research abilities. My 9 year old daughter and 10 year old son already know how to research on the internet. This school also has the kids do daily reports on what they read in the newspapers.

As far as I am concerned this current gov has improved the education system immensely if my kids free public school is any indication.

[ballpoint]

^^^ That's good to hear. Unfortunately, many people are too filled with the red rage to acknowledge any long term good that the current government is doing, preferring to rant on about the populist policies of the past in one breath while criticising any short term measures the Democrats do, along with these long term policies, with the other. I find that strange in those who so adamantly insist on being "pro poor". I also notice that there have been no replies / criticism of my post by the troll who asked the question (I don't use this term lightly, but as TT asked a question, ignored the answer and even admitted on another post that he only asked the question as "bait", then there can be no other conclusion), or indeed any other of the "balance giving" posters.

(Edited to add) Other than one "it doesn't matter, there's going to be a coup" reply.

Edited February 2, 2011 by ballpoint

[jdinasia]

My kids go to a thai public school and the school is pretty darn good now. They have 4 americans that rotate through out the school year to help the 3 thai english teachers teach english. When my kids first went to this school under Thaksin they had 1 thai english teacher that could not speak english. Now i can actually carry on a conversation in english with the thai english teachers. Under Thaksin it cost me almost 2,000 baht per kid for tuition plus 12 baht per day for lunch. Now tuition is free, books are free and I get money twice a year to pay for uniforms and other supplies.

The learning process has also improved. If the kids want to know something instead of the teachers just telling them (many times the teacher is wrong anyway) they divide the class into work groups and the kids learn the answers by them selves. This teaches them research abilities. My 9 year old daughter and 10 year old son already know how to research on the internet. This school also has the kids do daily reports on what they read in the newspapers.

As far as I am concerned this current gov has improved the education system immensely if my kids free public school is any indication.

Shhhhhh this is a secret! After all the Minister of Education under Thaksin was ...... Thaksin!

As pointed out by others that are usually better than me ..... this government seems to be committed to social progress regardless of getting 'credit' for it unlike the Thaksin regime which pushed forward some populist programs that actually HURT any chances of social progress simply because it attempted to tie the voters to TRT/PPP/PTP via debt and the old Patron/Client system.

Coup? --- Why?

[SomTumTiger]

Exactly - I take the Army commander at his word, until he gives me cause not to - like Thaksin has done thousands of times (openly lie and distort)