Stage Set In Thailand For Decisive Election

[webfact]

BURNING ISSUE

Stage set for decisive election

By Avudh Panananda

THE NATION

Thailand is gearing up for a snap election and the government is expected to spend its last month in office pushing the organic laws on the revamped electoral system before dissolving the House.

Political parties have already entered the final stage of campaign preparations. As the two major parties, the Democrats and Pheu Thai are expected to muster support for forming the next government, others will likely sit on the fence and be prepared to jump on the coalition bandwagon.

As things stand, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and Pheu Thai MP Mingkwan Saengsuwan are to contest in a two-horse race to grab power.

Abhisit is the defending champion. Mingkwan has yet to win his party's endorsement before he can step into the ring to fight as a first-time challenger to Abhisit.

Due to the bitter past experience of the disbanding of Thai Rak Thai and People Power parties for electoral fraud, Pheu Thai is unlikely to name its leader as contender for the post of prime minister.

This is a legal tactic to avoid a repeat of the collapse of the Somchai Wongsawat government in 2008 following the dissolution of the People Power Party.

In his latest Twitter message on Sunday, fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra clearly spelled out why he did not want the Pheu Thai leader to be the prime ministerial candidate.

Thaksin also outlined nine attributes he saw as essential qualifications for the next prime minister. The attributes include a proven track record in running a large organisation and the ability to tackle economic woes.

The nine attributes could apply to Mingkwan or Thaksin's younger sister Yingluck Shinawatra, who is tipped to contest a party-list House seat, or a number of prominent figures whom Thaksin is reportedly recruiting to adopt the Pheu Thai banner.

At this juncture, Thaksin has not lauded Mingkwan for his individual performance in the censure debate nor given his blessing, despite Mingkwan's aspirations to wrest power from Abhisit.

It is unclear why Thaksin appears reluctant to endorse Mingkwan. He may want to keep his options open up to the last minute. But under the circumstances, Mingkwan remains ready and available as the best possible choice for Pheu Thai.

Should Pheu Thai opt to choose Mingkwan to lead the campaign, Opposition crowd-pullers like Jatuporn Promphan and Natthawut Saikua are to be designated as magnets to draw the masses to its campaign rallies.

Even though the Abhisit-Mingkwan race will focus on economic issues, the Pheu Thai will definitely hype up the red-shirt movement and unresolved issues in connection with last year's riots.

Despite well-documented events leading to the bloodshed, the vast majority of the red shirts have subscribed to their version of the story. The main Opposition party will grab the opportunity to politicise the blood spilled in order to sway votes.

Because the red-shirt movement has been gaining momentum, the Democrats might not enjoy a comfortable lead as previously believed. The voting outcome is bound to be a narrow victory.

The main coalition party is fighting hard to shore up its support in the face of growing opposition from the yellow shirts.

Although doomsayers might not have high hopes for the balloting to bring about change, the upcoming poll will certainly settle a root cause of the political predicament.

Should the Democrats win, this would bury the question about the legitimacy of the Democrat-led government.

If Pheu Thai secures victory, then the voice of the people should be heeded - no more undemocratic intervention.

-- The Nation 2011-03-22

[hammered]

Before the last election a military poll predicted almost the exact outcome that actually occurred. Other polls were way off. No doubt the army are looking at their own polls very carefully right now.

Both sides will also pile in the complaints and fraud cases to every body that can receive them in the hope of dissolutions, yellow and red cards. Lets hope the EC arent also threatened with death again. This will be a totally filthy election filled with lies, money, inuendo, threats and no doubt death as nobody can afford to lose and yet nobody is positioned to win ie no party will in all likelihood get an overall majority

[jayboy]

Before the last election a military poll predicted almost the exact outcome that actually occurred. Other polls were way off. No doubt the army are looking at their own polls very carefully right now.

Both sides will also pile in the complaints and fraud cases to every body that can receive them in the hope of dissolutions, yellow and red cards. Lets hope the EC arent also threatened with death again. This will be a totally filthy election filled with lies, money, inuendo, threats and no doubt death as nobody can afford to lose and yet nobody is positioned to win ie no party will in all likelihood get an overall majority

All true enough though whether it is any filthier than others remains to be seen.However in the distaste for the process of elections let's be quite clear that for all the associated nonsense surrounding them Thai elections in recent years have provided a reasonable , actually better then reasonable, assessment of the Thai peoples views.I say this in advance in a scenario where the PTP seems to have weakened and the Democrats correspondingly strengthened.Therefore although there is need for vigilance I won't buy it if the Thaksinites complain afterwards the process was not fair.Elections always provide the ruling party with some advantages and yes there has been some clever steps taken by the government.So what? That's politics.

Correspondingly if the PTP against the odds does better than expected the Democrats should accept it (as should the military)

[Buchholz]

Before the last election a military poll predicted almost the exact outcome that actually occurred. Other polls were way off. No doubt the army are looking at their own polls very carefully right now.

Both sides will also pile in the complaints and fraud cases to every body that can receive them in the hope of dissolutions, yellow and red cards. Lets hope the EC arent also threatened with death again. This will be a totally filthy election filled with lies, money, inuendo, threats and no doubt death as nobody can afford to lose and yet nobody is positioned to win ie no party will in all likelihood get an overall majority

I agree that the coming election could escalate in terms of violence over more recent elections. The level of fervor and a lot of still-unaccounted for weaponry doesn't bode well for canvassers, who always seem targeted.

As for dissolutions, the plan by the EC Commissioner to seek the creation of a new court, to deal exclusively with the political crimes, is an interesting one. The Red carding change in the constitution with the card-ee being responsible to pay for a new by-election could really come to the forefront in its first significant potential usage. Those are huge costs to reimburse.

As well, the new amendment to change the composition of the House is another area of strong interest. How constituency lines get drawn will be critical.

.

[animatic]

Before the last election a military poll predicted almost the exact outcome that actually occurred. Other polls were way off. No doubt the army are looking at their own polls very carefully right now.

Both sides will also pile in the complaints and fraud cases to every body that can receive them in the hope of dissolutions, yellow and red cards. Lets hope the EC arent also threatened with death again. This will be a totally filthy election filled with lies, money, inuendo, threats and no doubt death as nobody can afford to lose and yet nobody is positioned to win ie no party will in all likelihood get an overall majority

I have to agree this will be a nasty one.

That this election will accurately reflect the freely offered views of the Thai electorate as to the direction for the country, remains a remote but unlikely possibility. It will reflect Thai political classes as they really are. And that is a sad prospect.

Edited March 22, 2011 by animatic

[jayboy]

Before the last election a military poll predicted almost the exact outcome that actually occurred. Other polls were way off. No doubt the army are looking at their own polls very carefully right now.

Both sides will also pile in the complaints and fraud cases to every body that can receive them in the hope of dissolutions, yellow and red cards. Lets hope the EC arent also threatened with death again. This will be a totally filthy election filled with lies, money, inuendo, threats and no doubt death as nobody can afford to lose and yet nobody is positioned to win ie no party will in all likelihood get an overall majority

I have to agree this will be a nasty one.

That this election will accurately reflect the freely offered views of the Thai electorate as to the direction for the country, remains a remote but unlikely possibility. It will reflect Thai political classes as they really are. And that is a sad prospect.

In case you're alluding to my comments, nobody seriously would argue that the election "will accurately reflect the freely offered views of the electorate".The point is that it will provide a reasonable guide that's better than the other alternatives.Yes the political classes will dominate but to one extent or the other that's true in every country.

The concern is that the less successful parties will complain the process wasn't fair and I think that must be squarely resisted.So if the PTP lose out as I expect them to they don't have this excuse.Their task therafter will be to be a loyal opposition to the presumably Abhisit headed government.

Increasingly I'm getting the feeling that some of those (a minority I agree) who bang on about "corrupt politicians" are in fact talking in code.They actually don't want democracy at all or a very constrained version of it in which the wishes of the elite or "the powers that be" are always paramount.Democracy is a rough and tumble business and always has had its share of charletans.

[animatic]

Alluding to alleged allusion?

The OP title should more aptly read

Stage set for devisive election

As long as party list system and non-runoff elections are used,

the playing field will always be jiggered to let ;

• The larger parties install their cronies and operatives with no reference to the public will,

• The little parties retain corrupting control over the larger viable parties,

causing rotating cabinets, so all players get a piece of the pie,

• Make controlling graft infinitely harder because political survival calculation must come into busting graft.

Edited March 22, 2011 by animatic

[jayboy]

Alluding to alleged allusion?

The OP title should more aptly read

Stage set for devisive election

As long as party list system and non-runoff elections are used,

the playing field will always be jiggered to let ;

• The larger parties install their cronies and operatives with no reference to the public will,

• The little parties retain corrupting control over the larger viable parties,

causing rotating cabinets, so all players get a piece of the pie,

• Make controlling graft infinitely harder because political survival calculation must come into busting graft.

I think you haven't grasped my point.This seems to be a response to another set of problems.

[asiawatcher]

This election will still reflect the will of one man and his puppets. It is still and educated Abhisit against street cunning Thaksin, nothing more. If Thaksin loses this one he may as well stay away and if that happens maybe the country can move forward but only time will tell. All the press about who Thaksin endorses? What a croc! As if this ass***e has any rights or opinions about the future of Thailand and only those he has conned and paid, the kwai daeng, still believe his diabolic diarrhetic rhetoric.

[SomTumTiger]

Abhisit takes the election. Most people haven't forgotten the Reds burning and looting Bangkok.

Democrats - 190-200 seats

PTP - 180-190 seats

BJT - 40-50 seats

CTP - 30 seats

Rest of them - scraps left over.

Dems form next government. Hold me to these numbers.

[SomTumTiger]

Who wants to see Yingluck debate Abhisit? Bloodbath.