If All Foreigners Would Leave This Country...

[mstribling]

of course.

They always do.

[Naam]

If all foreigners, or let's say 90% would leave this country and tourists stay away...

then one of my wet dreams would come true as i'd be among the 10% staying

[cardholder]

It's just online conversation. No harm. It's fun.

Like playing marry, kill, boff.

Understand...although I'm sure you realize the OP has an agenda.

No, I just think he has too much time on his hands.

[MSingh]

China's a paper dragon. The only reason they have a military is for internal control.

Sadly, the question isn't America fighting China. It's will America fight for China?

Of course the question isn't America fighting China, because they simply couldn't due to $$$.

[mstribling]

?????

[NanLaew]

While I agree with the first part (the reasoning for this thread....) the last part is certainly arguable simply in the form of foreign direct investment etc ... Thailand is the producer of light pick-up trucks for the region, but when the car companies go etc ...

The consequences of trying to get rid of foreigners would be dire (locally and globally .... but more locally) and would carry over to the export market. Had Thailand lost tourism in 97 as well as just the Asian financial crisis it would have been much much worse.

Who said anything about the factories or other direct foreign investment leaving the country? The OP is asking what would happen if the foreigners left or didn't come. OK, so the foreign management of companies and factories would be replaced by Thai.

We aint all that, never have been, never will be.

[NanLaew]

Who would the Thais side with, America or China? Easy both.

Ah yes... the long forgotten hub of non-aggression pacts.

[NanLaew]

internet fart.... double post

Edited March 29, 2011 by NanLaew

[SlyAnimal]

The economy as a whole would dip a little, not a huge amount probably, the rich would stay rich and the poor would get even poorer when their sons / daughters working in tourism industries got laid off.

But it'd never happen, even if there was another Tsunami combined with flooding, enforcement of anti prostitution laws and an economic downturn in the west.

Because market forces would bring the price of tourism down to increase demand. End result would be less tourists, who were spending less, but it wouldn't be even remotely close to a 90% reduction (Maybe a decent sized reduction in the short term, but long term the market would balance itself)

[geriatrickid]

I don't think you have to worry about internment camps. The war would be over in 20 minutes. Both sides would lose and the world as we know it would cease to exist. America can't fight the Chinese in a conventional war. Nukes would be the only option.

I disagree. it is all about logistics and supply lines. Outside of Asia, the Chinese have no real baseThe US for all its faults has multiple safe areas. It's also all about energy. China needs to import to power its advancing armies. The USa has Mexico and Canada. No long supply chains for the oil. Trade embargos is part of conventional war now,

In respect to 90% leaving Thailand, the 10% remaining would either be too poor or too ill to leave. For 90% to leave it means an issue of personal security. No matter how assimilated a group is, the population can turn on them in an instant. Look at the east Asians expelled from Uganda on a week's notice. They had been there for generations and were important to the economy. The Jews were expelled from egypt on 24-72 hours notice despite living there since biblical times. Ethnic chinese are regularly attacked and terrorized in SE Asia. Look at what the Khmer Rouge did in Cambodia. Oh sure there will be some that will say, I'll tough it out, or they love me. Right. Look at the plight of whites in Zimbabwe. Sure they can stay, but robbed of their human rights, livelihoods and assets.

Only a fool denies the capacity for savagery of humans.

[livinthailandos]

I don't think you have to worry about internment camps. The war would be over in 20 minutes. Both sides would lose and the world as we know it would cease to exist. America can't fight the Chinese in a conventional war. Nukes would be the only option.

I disagree. it is all about logistics and supply lines. Outside of Asia, the Chinese have no real baseThe US for all its faults has multiple safe areas. It's also all about energy. China needs to import to power its advancing armies. The USa has Mexico and Canada. No long supply chains for the oil. Trade embargos is part of conventional war now,

In respect to 90% leaving Thailand, the 10% remaining would either be too poor or too ill to leave. For 90% to leave it means an issue of personal security. No matter how assimilated a group is, the population can turn on them in an instant. Look at the east Asians expelled from Uganda on a week's notice. They had been there for generations and were important to the economy. The Jews were expelled from egypt on 24-72 hours notice despite living there since biblical times. Ethnic chinese are regularly attacked and terrorized in SE Asia. Look at what the Khmer Rouge did in Cambodia. Oh sure there will be some that will say, I'll tough it out, or they love me. Right. Look at the plight of whites in Zimbabwe. Sure they can stay, but robbed of their human rights, livelihoods and assets.

Only a fool denies the capacity for savagery of humans.

No matter how assimilated a group is, the population can turn on them in an instant. AGREED but on that note

This area though will largely depend on a few factors, social, economic, political issues, and duration of how long has it been going on for, how bad is the situation. Seems to me events that start tend to evolve more so when issues are not addressed properly or even handled properly.

[mark45y]

While I agree with the first part (the reasoning for this thread....) the last part is certainly arguable simply in the form of foreign direct investment etc ... Thailand is the producer of light pick-up trucks for the region, but when the car companies go etc ...

The consequences of trying to get rid of foreigners would be dire (locally and globally .... but more locally) and would carry over to the export market. Had Thailand lost tourism in 97 as well as just the Asian financial crisis it would have been much much worse.

Who said anything about the factories or other direct foreign investment leaving the country? The OP is asking what would happen if the foreigners left or didn't come. OK, so the foreign management of companies and factories would be replaced by Thai.

We aint all that, never have been, never will be.

Not true. It's not that the Thais want Western people doing the jobs but they don't have the Thais that can do them now. 20 years of training no problem but not now. Gradual and slow change with a view of future enterprises managed by local people and no problem. This is not rice farming, I'm talking about. How long does it take to train a helicopter pilot for a modern helicopter? How long does it take to train a petroleum chemist with knowledge of modern refinery techniques? Do the refineries taken over by Thai management in the past year meet international standards? You will see some interesting examples of this in the near future I am sure.

But I am not an expert. Ask some of the people here who really know something about it. I think they will confirm that Thai industry is not ready to stand alone right now.

[livinthailandos]

to the OP

I'm sure you had some intend for the posting, I'm sure to most people on here would agree is not very hard to assume the answer.

[bangkokcitylimits]

Lot of replies is quite a short time... wow...

I'm gonna read them all this evening.

[gregb]

If only 10% of the foreigners remained, it would mean Thailand had instituted a very strict policy, and only those who are absolutely essential to the economy could remain. This would mean a few expats in extremely well paying positions at Thai companies.

If you are in the following groups, you would be in the 90% that were evicted:

1. All retirees

2. Most English Teachers

3. All students

4. Those supporting families but without jobs

5. Tourists

Even with that, a sizeable percentage of the foreigners with families but with low paying jobs would also have to go. I think that is the only way to get down to 10%.

So, I would be willing to place a bet that most people on TV would not at all enjoy the reality of a 90% evacuation of foreigners in LOS. For the few that are of working age, desirable, well paid and lucky enough to stay, they would probably see their status increase.

[mark45y]

If only 10% of the foreigners remained, it would mean Thailand had instituted a very strict policy, and only those who are absolutely essential to the economy could remain. This would mean a few expats in extremely well paying positions at Thai companies.

If you are in the following groups, you would be in the 90% that were evicted:

1. All retirees

2. Most English Teachers

3. All students

4. Those supporting families but without jobs

5. Tourists

Even with that, a sizeable percentage of the foreigners with families but with low paying jobs would also have to go. I think that is the only way to get down to 10%.

So, I would be willing to place a bet that most people on TV would not at all enjoy the reality of a 90% evacuation of foreigners in LOS. For the few that are of working age, desirable, well paid and lucky enough to stay, they would probably see their status increase.

You are making an assumption that Thais are rational. You would be more accurate IMHO if you assumed the reverse or at least threw in those with the most money to give. Not necessarily the most money in the bank but the most money to be spent in certain areas. Also if you think any Thai politician can stand up against the women and families in Thailand who gain their support from Farangs I think you are being naive. I think what kind of job you may or may not have may determine status in Singapore but certainly not Thailand.

[JurgenG]

Who would the Thais side with, America or China? Easy both.

A no-brainer, China of course.

Here is the latest bad news for Americans who still think they matter : China is on course to overtake the US in scientific output possibly as soon as 2013 - far earlier than expected.

The study shows that China, after displacing the UK as the world's second leading producer of research, could go on to overtake America in as little as two years' time.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12885271

[bangkokcitylimits]

It's just online conversation. No harm. It's fun.

Like playing marry, kill, boff.

Understand...although I'm sure you realize the OP has an agenda.

An agenda ? Such as ? I think it's an interesting conversation.

But... seen the overall situation (visa rules/politics/social/cultural issues) it might be even not that 'fictive' at all !

[mstribling]

Jurgen- What are you trolling me for?

I love America. You hate America.

Of course we matter. Let go of the hate.

[tigerfish]

But you sound like you think that without the few pennies some old farangs toss up too Issan for their x-bar girls is gonna make some kind of meaningful, even measurable difference to the economy, and thats just funny.

Yes, pretty funny. And as Samran pointed out, this thread will undoubtedly bring out the worst in farangs who like to blame the Thais for their lot in life. Simply, Thailand "wants" the tourists and the FDI, and they'll keep getting it. Tourism makes up only about 6-7% of the GDP, but does bring in hard currency. FDI does the same and creates jobs. As for longstay expats, it reminds me of the old SNL skit, "The guests who wouldn't leave." The Thais put up with it, but aren't exactly bent on increasing the numbers (who could blame them--they get enough complaints from the ones already here). But the impact of longstay expats on the economy is so inconsequential and insignificant as to not even be worth talking about.

so which category do you fall into Berkshire ?

oh no don't tell me, i think i can guess !

[MSingh]

Jurgen- What are you trolling me for?

I love America. You hate America.

Of course we matter. Let go of the hate.

I've noticed you seem to refer to the truth as " hate " quite often...

[JurgenG]

Jurgen- What are you trolling me for?

I love America. You hate America.

Of course we matter. Let go of the hate.

I don't hate America, just stating facts.

Actually I love America, just don't try to rule my world.

[NanLaew]

Not true. It's not that the Thais want Western people doing the jobs but they don't have the Thais that can do them now. 20 years of training no problem but not now. Gradual and slow change with a view of future enterprises managed by local people and no problem. This is not rice farming, I'm talking about. How long does it take to train a helicopter pilot for a modern helicopter? How long does it take to train a petroleum chemist with knowledge of modern refinery techniques? Do the refineries taken over by Thai management in the past year meet international standards? You will see some interesting examples of this in the near future I am sure.

But I am not an expert. Ask some of the people here who really know something about it. I think they will confirm that Thai industry is not ready to stand alone right now.

Good points indeed. When you start to pick certain professional skills, it would appear that they would need a period of running with "training wheels" before being self-supporting. Kind of like what happened 2 or 3 times back in the 70's and 80's when the Indonesians decided they didn't need the foreign expertise in their oil patch. They ate humble pie (or whatever the Indonesian equivalent is) on those decisions which were primarily driven by dictatorial leaders keeping the populace united in their own xenophobia but blinded to their own inabilities.

Hmmm... does that ring a bell?

[TheFishman1]

How weird from foreigner leaving to wars all in one sentence LOL

[sunholidaysun1]

If all foreigners were told to leave Thailand , no problem , they can all go and live in the UK .

Its nearly full of foreigners now, so a few extra wont make any difference .

[samran]

While I agree with the first part (the reasoning for this thread....) the last part is certainly arguable simply in the form of foreign direct investment etc ... Thailand is the producer of light pick-up trucks for the region, but when the car companies go etc ...

The consequences of trying to get rid of foreigners would be dire (locally and globally .... but more locally) and would carry over to the export market. Had Thailand lost tourism in 97 as well as just the Asian financial crisis it would have been much much worse.

Who said anything about the factories or other direct foreign investment leaving the country? The OP is asking what would happen if the foreigners left or didn't come. OK, so the foreign management of companies and factories would be replaced by Thai.

We aint all that, never have been, never will be.

Not true. It's not that the Thais want Western people doing the jobs but they don't have the Thais that can do them now. 20 years of training no problem but not now. Gradual and slow change with a view of future enterprises managed by local people and no problem. This is not rice farming, I'm talking about. How long does it take to train a helicopter pilot for a modern helicopter? How long does it take to train a petroleum chemist with knowledge of modern refinery techniques? Do the refineries taken over by Thai management in the past year meet international standards? You will see some interesting examples of this in the near future I am sure.

But I am not an expert. Ask some of the people here who really know something about it. I think they will confirm that Thai industry is not ready to stand alone right now.

I don't quite think Thailand doesn't want foreigners here for starters. Look at work permit laws - there is no requirement in Thailand to prove that no other Thai can do the job before the work permit is issued (unlike the UK for instance). Sure, there are requirements that you hire Thai's - the ultimate idea being that you pass on skills. But what sensible country wouldn't do that?

As for the oil industry - I think Thailand is a great example of where there is excellent international co-operation. Governments, of all stripes, certainly recognise this. There is a good mix of expat and Thai's, and to a large extent, the industry is being run quite well by Thai's themselves.

Thailand is one of the best run, if not the best run, oil & energy industries in SE Asia. Alot of this has to do with the vision of certain policy makers, one of who is now the president of Thai airways and previous governments.

[samran]

Oh dear - our bi-monthly 'if it wasn't for us, Thailand would fall in a heap' thread, soon to be followed by replies how dastartly the locals are with cries of 'xenophobia' and 'racism' and how the lady at the local mom and pop shop charges me more and thus we are all discriminated against and how that is the 'final nail in the coffin'.

What would happen? Not much probably.

Thailand would have lost more as a % of GDP during the Asian financial crisis. Funny with that though, very few people went hungry and life kinda went on.

Farang spending is reportedly 7% of GDP, is it not? Based on figures quoted in the "don't respect farang" article. A piffling amount. I'm sure they couldn't give a toss. Many certainly act like it. And why not? its their train set.

The year following the Asian financial crisis, the economy contracted 10.5%.

Sure, it was a large shock to the economy. But people didn't go hungry. Prices adjusted. The baht dropped which made exports cheaper, which help compensated the loss of income from other areas.

The point is economies are dynamic. Things adjust. Life goes on.

People who respond to these types of posts seem to freeze things in time, take out one sector of the economy and then don't allow for something to come in to replace it. It is simply a wrong headed view of things.

Sure, who would want to lose 7% of your income? No one. But if it does hypothically go (which in reality it won't), things will come into replace it. People don't simply drop tools and stand still and do nothing.

[Ulysses G.]

I do not think that 7% takes into account prostitution and men supporting girlfriends and such. I would guess that it isactually far more than the official figures.

[samran]

I do not think that 7% takes into account prostitution and men supporting girlfriends and such. I would guess that it isactually far more than the official figures.

That 7% is generated from close to 16 million tourist entrants in 2010. In the main, legitimate holiday makers and short term visitors to Thailand.

Do you think that the men supporting their 'darlings' dwarfs this? I know that is what many TV punters would like to think so, but the common sense test would tell you otherwise.

[toybits]

Not all white foreigners have the Messiah Complex that the OP has. And Thailand can certainly do better without the Missionaries.