Statistics, Where Are The Statistics ?

[samran]

Don't really understand your references even if they were accurate -- what does the presence of the OSS or the DEA have to do with the OP?

Mind control experiments, of course!

[SteeleJoe]

Ssshhh! Mind control? What mind control?!

*SteeleJoe picks up radio mic and calls for CIA/Mossad black helicopters to find Samran*

[samran]

Ssshhh! Mind control? What mind control?!

*SteeleJoe picks up radio mic and calls for CIA/Mossad black helicopters to find Samran*

haha,

True story. Was in Baja California a decade ago. A place called Todos Santos I think, were the supposed Hotel California is.

Anyway,

Was speaking to a very reasonable American chap who all of a sudden began banging on quite genuinely about a time machine which was located under Manhattan.

I asked him, how they invented it, and he replied it was by accident, that they discovered that a mind control machine they had tested and instead of controlling peoples minds, they found that the machine was sending people through time.

Serious.

One of the things I love about the States is all the loveable nutjobs it churns out. Seriously one of my favourite parts of the world (oh and the scenery ain't too bad either).

[SteeleJoe]

After looking at this it makes even less sense and is even more inaccurate than I thought...

During WW II Half of the American OSS was hidden in Bangkok right under the nose of the Japanese and the Japanese are pretty smart people as a rule. That is why the American spies got along so well with the Thais and the Brits had problems with them. The Americans didn't care and the Thais didn't know. The Brits both cared and knew but the Thais still didn't know. So there you go. At the end of WW II there was nary a Brit to be seen anywhere but the Yanks were all over the place.

Say, what?

[mark45y]

I have been reading Thai news for a few years now and I have come to the conclusion they have no meaningful statistics and never have had any.

The unofficial economy is so broad and pervasive that no economic statistics make any sense.

Population statistics, you gotta be kidding.

I can tell you how many bars are in Cleveland with plus or minus .01% accuracy. How many bars are in Pattaya? I don't think anyone knows within 5000. I don't even think you could get anyone to agree on what a bar is, let alone how many there are.

Think of how many people could use that information. All sorts of government and tourist agencies and marketing and advertising businesses and suppliers of the industry. But no one knows.

It is not just bars. How many businesses run off that electrical outlet? Oh, I don't know on Monday there is a bar, two noodle shops and a stuffed animal seller. On Wednesday a CD shop. Chinese mobile temple and two bird sellers. You get the idea.

Thais defend themselves by being confusing and then acting dumb. Or acting dumb and then being confusing. During WW II Half of the American OSS was hidden in Bangkok right under the nose of the Japanese and the Japanese are pretty smart people as a rule. That is why the American spies got along so well with the Thais and the Brits had problems with them. The Americans didn't care and the Thais didn't know. The Brits both cared and knew but the Thais still didn't know. So there you go. At the end of WW II there was nary a Brit to be seen anywhere but the Yanks were all over the place. The DEA is all over Thailand and has been since the 1950's. Accurate statistics? They don't have any. They really don't care and the Thais don't know. Same with all of the NGO's. If you want to be a successful NGO in Thailand the first requisite is not caring, because no one is going to give you any accurate data.

During WW II Half of the American OSS was hidden in Bangkok...

Err...I suspect that might be a bit off.

The DEA is all over Thailand and has been since the 1950's.

The DEA has only existed since 1973.

Don't really understand your references even if they were accurate -- what does the presence of the OSS or the DEA have to do with the OP?

America started its anti drug campaign in Thailand in the 1950's.

The OSS field operations were over in Europe (because the war in Europe ended) before Asia and a large number of American operatives moved to Bangkok.

The reason for the reference to the OSS and DEA is they have something in common with Thailand. All three play fast and loose with statistics.

[SteeleJoe]

One of the things I love about the States is all the loveable nutjobs it churns out. Seriously one of my favourite parts of the world (oh and the scenery ain't too bad either).

I'm with you there. But as far as nutjobs go (especially the conspiracy theorist types), the rest of the world -- while perhaps falling behind the US -- does a pretty good job of producing them too.

Good story. I've heard some really absurd stuff from otherwise rational folks but that one tops the list (and I'll refrain from posting some examples I've heard as I fear there would be people chiming in to say they were true -- and then all hell would break loose on this thread.)

[SteeleJoe]

America started its anti drug campaign in Thailand in the 1950's.

Not so much. Indeed the CIA was in up to its neck in the drug trade in SEA in the 50s -- they weren't stopping it they were largely facilitating it. And the fact remains, the DEA wasn't here becasue it didn't exist.

The OSS field operations were over in Europe (because the war in Europe ended) before Asia and a large number of American operatives moved to Bangkok.

Well, you didn't say after May 1945 -- you said during World War II (which was a lot longer than the 3 months you seem to be talking about). A large number? Well, I guess it depends on what you mean by large -- but half of the OSS? Seems unlikely.

The reason for the reference to the OSS and DEA is they have something in common with Thailand. All three play fast and loose with statistics.

Uhmmm...OK.

[mark45y]

[....I imagine you live in Thailand but you must wear blinders. I assume you are married to a Thai woman but she must not talk to you.

...

All that has been proven in this thread (and several others) is that you are the one that appears to be wearing blinders.

TH

Cute, but instead of snipping something for a slam why don't you respond to my post?

"I am not trying to con you nor am I lying to you. Take off your blinders and look around your own town for a minute. Do you think that lady that does laundry pays taxes? Or the noodle shop on wheels? Or the ice cream vendor? Or the weekend flea market and the weekly markets all over Thailand. All of that is off the books.

Like I said, don't believe me. Take a walk around your town for a week and estimate how many things are sold with no records kept.

In the US, UK and Australia when you sell something and when you buy something you have to keep records and pay taxes. Most purchases are made with check or credit card. A record exists of almost all transactions. I can live in Thailand 100% cash. My phone, my rent, my utilities everything is cash."

[mark45y]

America started its anti drug campaign in Thailand in the 1950's.

Not so much. Indeed the CIA was in up to its neck in the drug trade in SEA in the 50s -- they weren't stopping it they were largely facilitating it. And the fact remains, the DEA wasn't here becasue it didn't exist.

The OSS field operations were over in Europe (because the war in Europe ended) before Asia and a large number of American operatives moved to Bangkok.

Well, you didn't say after May 1945 -- you said during World War II (which was a lot longer than the 3 months you seem to be talking about). A large number? Well, I guess it depends on what you mean by large -- but half of the OSS? Seems unlikely.

The reason for the reference to the OSS and DEA is they have something in common with Thailand. All three play fast and loose with statistics.

Uhmmm...OK.

Cut me a little slack here Joe. When the CIA/OSS/DEA said anti drug they may have meant anti drug trade for unapproved sources only or any other variety of things. Who was going to pay for all those Chinese troops that Nationalist China abandoned in Northern Thailand? If they didn't get paid they would have gone around rampaging and raping and killing people. And what about the Thai cops and robbers and army? Someone has to pay the bills. It was hard times; Thailand didn't have much money back then. The CIA, 3 or 4 years ago released a large number of documents on the period after WW II leading up to Vietnam and that might have enlightened us all except all the references to Thailand are still blocked out. So who knows for sure. Which is kind of my point. They get along well together.

[thaihome]

[....I imagine you live in Thailand but you must wear blinders. I assume you are married to a Thai woman but she must not talk to you.

...

All that has been proven in this thread (and several others) is that you are the one that appears to be wearing blinders.

TH

Cute, but instead of snipping something for a slam why don't you respond to my post?

"I am not trying to con you nor am I lying to you. Take off your blinders and look around your own town for a minute. Do you think that lady that does laundry pays taxes? Or the noodle shop on wheels? Or the ice cream vendor? Or the weekend flea market and the weekly markets all over Thailand. All of that is off the books.

Like I said, don't believe me. Take a walk around your town for a week and estimate how many things are sold with no records kept.

In the US, UK and Australia when you sell something and when you buy something you have to keep records and pay taxes. Most purchases are made with check or credit card. A record exists of almost all transactions. I can live in Thailand 100% cash. My phone, my rent, my utilities everything is cash."

You can pay for phone, rent, utilities here in Thailand by check, credit card or cash, just like in most western countries. I am sure that you have noticed that all those amounts include VAT, right? The only exception would be a private person renting out a unit that does not report the income, which never happens in a western country, does it? If you do rent for a company, I’m sure you have noticed that the rent is split into two parts, one which VAT is paid.

Vendor with annual turnover below 1.2 million are not required to collect VAT. This along with the sole trader laws allows small vendors to due a cash only business.

I am not doubting what you refer to as the grey economy exists, just that your statement that economic reports published by the various Thai authorities or even the many private economist that track the Thai economy don’t include it.

Again, you have not proved one of your many assertions in this whole thread, and when confronted with facts proving you are wrong, you have just moved the goalpost to another point, which is then also proved wrong.

[SteeleJoe]

Whoa! Went back to work and came back to this unexpected nugget:

Cut me a little slack here Joe. When the CIA/OSS/DEA said anti drug they may have meant anti drug trade for unapproved sources only or any other variety of things. Who was going to pay for all those Chinese troops that Nationalist China abandoned in Northern Thailand? If they didn't get paid they would have gone around rampaging and raping and killing people. And what about the Thai cops and robbers and army? Someone has to pay the bills. It was hard times; Thailand didn't have much money back then. The CIA, 3 or 4 years ago released a large number of documents on the period after WW II leading up to Vietnam and that might have enlightened us all except all the references to Thailand are still blocked out. So who knows for sure. Which is kind of my point. They get along well together.

Sorry. But while even I don't try for 100% precision in my posts -- as my previous posts have been fairly off the cuff - I do typically react when people make claims that don't stand up to scrutiny. You are welcome to ignore my reaction, I suppose. Or simply say, "oops. I guess I got that wrong." (Or just scramble to backpedal as, with all due respect, you seem to be doing,

When the CIA/OSS/DEA said anti drug they may have meant anti drug trade for unapproved sources only or any other variety of things.

3 quite separate entities (though obviously a direct link between the former 2 exists). And as for what they may have meant when they "said anti-drug" (not sure what you are referring to -- got any sources on US and CIA anti-drug policy in the 50s?)...I suppose they might have meant what you suggest: but you claimed -- in order to support your erroneous claim that the DEA has been all over Thailand asince the 1950's -- that the anti-drug campaign (by implication, here in Thailand) began in the 50s . But what sort of anti-drug campaign was it that was supporting the vast drug trafficking opertion run by the Thai government/Army/police? You aren't making much sense in your effort to support your previous post.

Who was going to pay for all those Chinese troops that Nationalist China abandoned in Northern Thailand?

They weren't abandoned, they deliberately stayed behind until they were forced to leave. And they were mostly in Burma, not Thailand (yes, I know quite well how little the borders meant and of the flow through the Golden Triangle of not only material but personnel).

Who was going to pay for them? Well, the US for one.

If they didn't get paid they would have gone around rampaging and raping and killing people.

Do you seriously think that's why the drug trade was allowed to flourish? And do you think there was anything or anyone stopping them from rampaging, raping or killing people anyway?

It was about the Cold War -- like everything else then. Those troops were seen as means to (at best) retake China or (at least) be a perpetual inconvenience to the Chinese Communist government. And the drug trade was mostly about keeping the Thais on our side and enabling them to be of use to us.

And what about the Thai cops and robbers and army? Someone has to pay the bills. It was hard times; Thailand didn't have much money back then

That's one of the weakest apologies I've ever seen for gigantic and systemic corruption and criminal activity by a government; hard times for whom? The people in that trade made hundreds of millions. And the US was dumping loads of money into Thailand (including pay for the cops and the Army) so it's hardly the case that they needed to deal in opium and heroin to get by.

Again, it wasn't out of sympathy for impoverished Thais -- it was about geopolitical realities as perceived at the time.

The CIA, 3 or 4 years ago released a large number of documents on the period after WW II leading up to Vietnam and that might have enlightened us all except all the references to Thailand are still blocked out. So who knows for sure.

Got any sort of source for that or an idea where I can find what you are talking about? In any case, plenty is known about what went on here.

Which is kind of my point. They get along well together.

Who gets along with whom? And how is that a point? Speaking of playing fast and loose with facts...no offense intended but methinks you are doing a bit of that. Sorry for the lack of slack...

edited to try and sort out format

Edited April 4, 2011 by SteeleJoe

[mark45y]

Whoa! Went back to work and came back to this unexpected nugget:

Cut me a little slack here Joe. When the CIA/OSS/DEA said anti drug they may have meant anti drug trade for unapproved sources only or any other variety of things. Who was going to pay for all those Chinese troops that Nationalist China abandoned in Northern Thailand? If they didn't get paid they would have gone around rampaging and raping and killing people. And what about the Thai cops and robbers and army? Someone has to pay the bills. It was hard times; Thailand didn't have much money back then. The CIA, 3 or 4 years ago released a large number of documents on the period after WW II leading up to Vietnam and that might have enlightened us all except all the references to Thailand are still blocked out. So who knows for sure. Which is kind of my point. They get along well together.

Sorry. But while even I don't try for 100% precision in my posts -- as my previous posts have been fairly off the cuff - I do typically react when people make claims that don't stand up to scrutiny. You are welcome to ignore my reaction, I suppose. Or simply say, "oops. I guess I got that wrong." (Or just scramble to backpedal as, with all due respect, you seem to be doing,

When the CIA/OSS/DEA said anti drug they may have meant anti drug trade for unapproved sources only or any other variety of things.

3 quite separate entities (though obviously a direct link between the former 2 exists). And as for what they may have meant when they "said anti-drug" (not sure what you are referring to -- got any sources on US and CIA anti-drug policy in the 50s?)...I suppose they might have meant what you suggest: but you claimed -- in order to support your erroneous claim that the DEA has been all over Thailand asince the 1950's -- that the anti-drug campaign (by implication, here in Thailand) began in the 50s . But what sort of anti-drug campaign was it that was supporting the vast drug trafficking opertion run by the Thai government/Army/police? You aren't making much sense in your effort to support your previous post.

Who was going to pay for all those Chinese troops that Nationalist China abandoned in Northern Thailand?

They weren't abandoned, they deliberately stayed behind until they were forced to leave. And they were mostly in Burma, not Thailand (yes, I know quite well how little the borders meant and of the flow through the Golden Triangle of not only material but personnel).

Who was going to pay for them? Well, the US for one.

If they didn't get paid they would have gone around rampaging and raping and killing people.

Do you seriously think that's why the drug trade was allowed to flourish? And do you think there was anything or anyone stopping them from rampaging, raping or killing people anyway?

It was about the Cold War -- like everything else then. Those troops were seen as means to (at best) retake China or (at least) be a perpetual inconvenience to the Chinese Communist government. And the drug trade was mostly about keeping the Thais on our side and enabling them to be of use to us.

And what about the Thai cops and robbers and army? Someone has to pay the bills. It was hard times; Thailand didn't have much money back then

That's one of the weakest apologies I've ever seen for gigantic and systemic corruption and criminal activity by a government; hard times for whom? The people in that trade made hundreds of millions. And the US was dumping loads of money into Thailand (including pay for the cops and the Army) so it's hardly the case that they needed to deal in opium and heroin to get by.

Again, it wasn't out of sympathy for impoverished Thais -- it was about geopolitical realities as perceived at the time.

The CIA, 3 or 4 years ago released a large number of documents on the period after WW II leading up to Vietnam and that might have enlightened us all except all the references to Thailand are still blocked out. So who knows for sure.

Got any sort of source for that or an idea where I can find what you are talking about? In any case, plenty is known about what went on here.

Which is kind of my point. They get along well together.

Who gets along with whom? And how is that a point? Speaking of playing fast and loose with facts...no offense intended but methinks you are doing a bit of that. Sorry for the lack of slack...

edited to try and sort out format

My only point in mentioning the OSS and DEA was a reference to statistics and the fact that they along with the Thai government both treat them casually. I didn't think founding dates of the organizations were important to the issue.

I did not also mean to justify any countries behavior during that time period.

Nor did I wish to go off topic and open up a thread about drug enforcement or traffic during the period.

All I was writing about was those two agencies handling of factual situations leaves a bit to be desired by those interested in truth.

I was reading the analysis of CIA operations by Thomas L.Ahern 1961 to 1973. It would be a lot more interesting with the blanks filled in but I can't find anything but the censored versions.

Apologies for the DEA dates, in the context of what I was talking about I didn't think they were important.

[SteeleJoe]

I didn't think founding dates of the organizations were important to the issue.

They weren't. But what was important to the discussion was the fact that your asssertions were demonstably unfounded. (Only one of which had to do with founding date -- and that mattered because it could hardly have been here if it didn't exist).

I did not also mean to justify any countries behavior during that time period.

But you did so nonetheless.

Nor did I wish to go off topic and open up a thread about drug enforcement or traffic during the period.

But it was you who brought that into the thread with your oddly out of place and inaccurate reference to the "anti-drug campaign". (But I agree it's best that you not "open up a thread about drug enforcement or traffic during the period" -- unless you did so in order to learn something about it because I'm not sure you would be well-equipped to comment.)

Sorry for off-topic everyone. Nuff said.

[samran]

[....I imagine you live in Thailand but you must wear blinders. I assume you are married to a Thai woman but she must not talk to you.

...

All that has been proven in this thread (and several others) is that you are the one that appears to be wearing blinders.

TH

Cute, but instead of snipping something for a slam why don't you respond to my post?

"I am not trying to con you nor am I lying to you. Take off your blinders and look around your own town for a minute. Do you think that lady that does laundry pays taxes? Or the noodle shop on wheels? Or the ice cream vendor? Or the weekend flea market and the weekly markets all over Thailand. All of that is off the books.

Like I said, don't believe me. Take a walk around your town for a week and estimate how many things are sold with no records kept.

In the US, UK and Australia when you sell something and when you buy something you have to keep records and pay taxes. Most purchases are made with check or credit card. A record exists of almost all transactions. I can live in Thailand 100% cash. My phone, my rent, my utilities everything is cash."

um, Mark, it might come as a bit of a shock to you but just about all those things (phone, utilities etc) are actually paid to legitimate companies who do keep the record. As Thai home said, all of them can be paid electronically quite easily.

That money you bought in from your pension? Recorded.

The money spent by tourists? Recorded....currency inflows and conversions used as a proxy. People know how to add and subtract.

Sole traders? Estimates made of their income based on educated guesses.

As someone else said, stop trying to move the goal posts. The only one in this conversation who refuses to deal with facts is you. You simply dismiss evidence it without providing an alternative. I walk down similar streets to you too.

[mark45y]

[....I imagine you live in Thailand but you must wear blinders. I assume you are married to a Thai woman but she must not talk to you.

...

All that has been proven in this thread (and several others) is that you are the one that appears to be wearing blinders.

TH

Cute, but instead of snipping something for a slam why don't you respond to my post?

"I am not trying to con you nor am I lying to you. Take off your blinders and look around your own town for a minute. Do you think that lady that does laundry pays taxes? Or the noodle shop on wheels? Or the ice cream vendor? Or the weekend flea market and the weekly markets all over Thailand. All of that is off the books.

Like I said, don't believe me. Take a walk around your town for a week and estimate how many things are sold with no records kept.

In the US, UK and Australia when you sell something and when you buy something you have to keep records and pay taxes. Most purchases are made with check or credit card. A record exists of almost all transactions. I can live in Thailand 100% cash. My phone, my rent, my utilities everything is cash."

You can pay for phone, rent, utilities here in Thailand by check, credit card or cash, just like in most western countries. I am sure that you have noticed that all those amounts include VAT, right? The only exception would be a private person renting out a unit that does not report the income, which never happens in a western country, does it? If you do rent for a company, I’m sure you have noticed that the rent is split into two parts, one which VAT is paid.

Vendor with annual turnover below 1.2 million are not required to collect VAT. This along with the sole trader laws allows small vendors to due a cash only business.

I am not doubting what you refer to as the grey economy exists, just that your statement that economic reports published by the various Thai authorities or even the many private economist that track the Thai economy don’t include it.

Again, you have not proved one of your many assertions in this whole thread, and when confronted with facts proving you are wrong, you have just moved the goalpost to another point, which is then also proved wrong.

At the end of the month everyone goes to the 7/11 and pays their bills. No one uses a check or credit card. I don't know what the credit card or check usage is but as far as ordinary citizens I would say less than 10% of expenditures are traceable.

I would think that the West is 90% traceable expenses and Thailand is 10%.

Are you really trying to say that the average Thai person has a checking account?

I went to Lotus today and had a cup of coffee and watched the transactions at 6 registers. I watched roughly 100 transactions. I saw 12 credit cards used and no checks. In 6 years I have never seen a bar or restaurant take a check. In all but the more expensive restaurants I have never seen credit card taken.

I think it is fair to say that Thailand is a cash society. I take it you don't.

I got my car fixed the other day. It cost me 11,000 baht. I got it fixed at a reputable repair shop and they used Toyota parts. They didn't give me a receipt and refused my request for one. This is not unusual in Thailand. It would be completely unacceptable in the West.

My contention is that the Thai gray and black market economy is so large that it prevents meaningful statistics being recorded.

My evidence for this is walk out on the street in any Thai town and look around. What you will see is unrecorded inventories and unrecorded sales of almost everything the average Thai buys during the course of an average day.

Income and expenses are impossible to determine at the most basic level. Do most Thais live in apartments that record income? No. Food and shelter are not traceable expenses. That means food and shelter are part of the gray economy.

A tourist brings in $1000. He goes to his GF's house and stays for a week. What part of that $1000 is recorded anywhere? Food, shelter, beverages and miscellaneous services? None. A tourist goes to the West and virtually all of his expenditures are recorded.

[SteeleJoe]

At the end of the month everyone goes to the 7/11 and pays their bills. No one uses a check or credit card. I don't know what the credit card or check usage is but as far as ordinary citizens I would say less than 10% of expenditures are traceable.

I would think that the West is 90% traceable expenses and Thailand is 10%.

Are you really trying to say that the average Thai person has a checking account?

I went to Lotus today and had a cup of coffee and watched the transactions at 6 registers. I watched roughly 100 transactions. I saw 12 credit cards used and no checks. In 6 years I have never seen a bar or restaurant take a check. In all but the more expensive restaurants I have never seen credit card taken.

I think it is fair to say that Thailand is a cash society. I take it you don't.

I got my car fixed the other day. It cost me 11,000 baht. I got it fixed at a reputable repair shop and they used Toyota parts. They didn't give me a receipt and refused my request for one. This is not unusual in Thailand. It would be completely unacceptable in the West.

My contention is that the Thai gray and black market economy is so large that it prevents meaningful statistics being recorded.

My evidence for this is walk out on the street in any Thai town and look around. What you will see is unrecorded inventories and unrecorded sales of almost everything the average Thai buys during the course of an average day.

Income and expenses are impossible to determine at the most basic level. Do most Thais live in apartments that record income? No. Food and shelter are not traceable expenses. That means food and shelter are part of the gray economy.

A tourist brings in $1000. He goes to his GF's house and stays for a week. What part of that $1000 is recorded anywhere? Food, shelter, beverages and miscellaneous services? None. A tourist goes to the West and virtually all of his expenditures are recorded.

• Yeah, everyone goes to 7-11. Well except for the millions(?) who don't. Like me. No one uses a credit card to pay bills -- except the millions who do (like my family).
• In all but the more expensive restaurants you have never seen a credit card taken? I've seen it in hundreds of low to mid-range establishments. I've been her about 4 times longer than 6 years.

• Receipts? Rarely difficult to get from a business. It would be completely unacceptable for me here to have my car serviced (or anything else of high value) at a place that refused to provide me with a receipt.

• Do most Thais live in apartments that record income? Errr...most Thais don't live in apartments. Not sure why that matters. But apartments I've lived in and/or girlfriends lived in (cheap to expensive) "record income".
• Most tourists don't go their "GF's house" to stay for a week. Not sure how much difference your scenario would make.

Edited April 4, 2011 by SteeleJoe

[mark45y]

At the end of the month everyone goes to the 7/11 and pays their bills. No one uses a check or credit card. I don't know what the credit card or check usage is but as far as ordinary citizens I would say less than 10% of expenditures are traceable.

I would think that the West is 90% traceable expenses and Thailand is 10%.

Are you really trying to say that the average Thai person has a checking account?

I went to Lotus today and had a cup of coffee and watched the transactions at 6 registers. I watched roughly 100 transactions. I saw 12 credit cards used and no checks. In 6 years I have never seen a bar or restaurant take a check. In all but the more expensive restaurants I have never seen credit card taken.

I think it is fair to say that Thailand is a cash society. I take it you don't.

I got my car fixed the other day. It cost me 11,000 baht. I got it fixed at a reputable repair shop and they used Toyota parts. They didn't give me a receipt and refused my request for one. This is not unusual in Thailand. It would be completely unacceptable in the West.

My contention is that the Thai gray and black market economy is so large that it prevents meaningful statistics being recorded.

My evidence for this is walk out on the street in any Thai town and look around. What you will see is unrecorded inventories and unrecorded sales of almost everything the average Thai buys during the course of an average day.

Income and expenses are impossible to determine at the most basic level. Do most Thais live in apartments that record income? No. Food and shelter are not traceable expenses. That means food and shelter are part of the gray economy.

A tourist brings in $1000. He goes to his GF's house and stays for a week. What part of that $1000 is recorded anywhere? Food, shelter, beverages and miscellaneous services? None. A tourist goes to the West and virtually all of his expenditures are recorded.

• Yeah, everyone goes to 7-11. Well except for the millions(?) who don't. Like me. No one uses a credit card to pay bills -- except the millions who do (like my family).
• In all but the more expensive restaurants you have never seen a credit card taken? I've seen it in hundreds of low to mid-range establishments. I've been her about 4 times longer than 6 years.

• Receipts? Rarely difficult to get from a business. It would be completely unacceptable for me here to have my car serviced (or anything else of high value) at a place that refused to provide me with a receipt.

• Do most Thais live in apartments that record income? Errr...most Thais don't live in apartments. Not sure why that matters. But apartments I've lived in and/or girlfriends lived in (cheap to expensive) "record income".
• Most tourists don't go their "GF's house" to stay for a week. Not sure how much difference your scenario would make.

7/11's make a large part of the cash society possible. It is my contention that the average Thai does not pay bills by mail or credit card. What percent will you admit are living with cash only?

7000 7/11's around the end of the month or beginning of the month or almost any time you are in line someone will be paying a bill there. How many do you think per day? Multiply that by 7000 for each day a bill is paid. How many people are on one electric account? How many people pay cash to top up phone cards instead of a credit by month arrangement?

Restaurants, I think we have a difference in definition. Most Thai people eat at restaurants that don't take credit cards on a daily basis. Maybe on special occasions an MK or something like that but certainly not daily.

The great majority of Thai people don't pay recorded money for shelter. They stay in homes that are payed for. Rent? One person pays rent and the other dwellers in the room pay cash.

A million single men come to Thailand every year. A sizable percent don't pay for hotels. Nor do they get receipts for anything they buy.

Principles of Economics by N. Gregory Mankiw, 2008 estimates Thailand's gray economy at 54% of GDP

Institution Harvard Field Macroeconomics Alma mater MIT (Ph.D., 1984)

Princeton (A.B., 1980)

The US and UK and Japanese economies have a grey economy around or below 10%. You can see how Thailand's 54% makes any attempt at gathering meaningful statistics impossible.

Edited April 4, 2011 by mark45y

[andrewbkk]

No one uses a credit card to pay bills -- except the millions who do (like my family)

Yeah bro, millions and millions millions.

Here in my village, old ladies buy their "som tam" from that repulsive hag outside SCB bank and pay with American Express. Office girls take motorcycle taxis to the end of the soi and pay the 10 baht fee with Diners Club. My neighbours all buy the daily newspaper from that blind man who stands next to 7-11 and pay with Visa.

Oh -- and in case I forgot -- that alcoholic guy in the soi just behind me buys his "Lao Khao" every day in that depressing mon and pop store and pays with Mastercard.

Jeez -- some of you guys on this forum.

[samran]

At the end of the month everyone goes to the 7/11 and pays their bills. No one uses a check or credit card. I don't know what the credit card or check usage is but as far as ordinary citizens I would say less than 10% of expenditures are traceable.

I would think that the West is 90% traceable expenses and Thailand is 10%.

Are you really trying to say that the average Thai person has a checking account?

I went to Lotus today and had a cup of coffee and watched the transactions at 6 registers. I watched roughly 100 transactions. I saw 12 credit cards used and no checks. In 6 years I have never seen a bar or restaurant take a check. In all but the more expensive restaurants I have never seen credit card taken.

I think it is fair to say that Thailand is a cash society. I take it you don't.

I got my car fixed the other day. It cost me 11,000 baht. I got it fixed at a reputable repair shop and they used Toyota parts. They didn't give me a receipt and refused my request for one. This is not unusual in Thailand. It would be completely unacceptable in the West.

My contention is that the Thai gray and black market economy is so large that it prevents meaningful statistics being recorded.

My evidence for this is walk out on the street in any Thai town and look around. What you will see is unrecorded inventories and unrecorded sales of almost everything the average Thai buys during the course of an average day.

Income and expenses are impossible to determine at the most basic level. Do most Thais live in apartments that record income? No. Food and shelter are not traceable expenses. That means food and shelter are part of the gray economy.

A tourist brings in $1000. He goes to his GF's house and stays for a week. What part of that $1000 is recorded anywhere? Food, shelter, beverages and miscellaneous services? None. A tourist goes to the West and virtually all of his expenditures are recorded.

• Yeah, everyone goes to 7-11. Well except for the millions(?) who don't. Like me. No one uses a credit card to pay bills -- except the millions who do (like my family).
• In all but the more expensive restaurants you have never seen a credit card taken? I've seen it in hundreds of low to mid-range establishments. I've been her about 4 times longer than 6 years.

• Receipts? Rarely difficult to get from a business. It would be completely unacceptable for me here to have my car serviced (or anything else of high value) at a place that refused to provide me with a receipt.

• Do most Thais live in apartments that record income? Errr...most Thais don't live in apartments. Not sure why that matters. But apartments I've lived in and/or girlfriends lived in (cheap to expensive) "record income".
• Most tourists don't go their "GF's house" to stay for a week. Not sure how much difference your scenario would make.

7/11's make a large part of the cash society possible. It is my contention that the average Thai does not pay bills by mail or credit card. What percent will you admit are living with cash only?

7000 7/11's around the end of the month or beginning of the month or almost any time you are in line someone will be paying a bill there. How many do you think per day? Multiply that by 7000 for each day a bill is paid. How many people are on one electric account? How many people pay cash to top up phone cards instead of a credit by month arrangement?

Restaurants, I think we have a difference in definition. Most Thai people eat at restaurants that don't take credit cards on a daily basis. Maybe on special occasions an MK or something like that but certainly not daily.

The great majority of Thai people don't pay recorded money for shelter. They stay in homes that are payed for. Rent? One person pays rent and the other dwellers in the room pay cash.

A million single men come to Thailand every year. A sizable percent don't pay for hotels. Nor do they get receipts for anything they buy.

Principles of Economics by N. Gregory Mankiw, 2008 estimates Thailand's gray economy at 54% of GDP

Institution Harvard Field Macroeconomics Alma mater MIT (Ph.D., 1984)

Princeton (A.B., 1980)

The US and UK and Japanese economies have a grey economy around or below 10%. You can see how Thailand's 54% makes any attempt at gathering meaningful statistics impossible.

You've just contradicted yourself.

They have estimates of a grey economy, ergo, it the size of the economy can be estimated as an approximation. When people generally refer to a grey economy, it basically means that there are parts of the economy that aren't being taxed, or under taxed. It doesn't mean they can't be estimated in size to a reasonable degree, as Dr Manikow did.

I don't quite get your examples of the cash economy, as they are really bad examples.

The "millions" of desperate men who come to Thailand bring in foreign currency, which gets converted to Thai baht. It is recorded. Done.

At the 7-11, people may pay cash for their services. But 7-11 is a business no? Or are you saying the power company, 7-11 and the phone company aren't being recorded as well for GDP purposes? No, it is recorded.

You pull money out of the ATM? It is being recorded - probably booked as consumption. Done.

You might be partly right that the noodle vendor isn't being directly recorded. But so what? They ultimately buy their inputs from big wholesalers (through a variety of middlemen). At some point, these transactions are being recorded. Done again.

It is thoroughly possible to make approximations therefore based on the economic activity. It isn't rocket science.

You mentioned you 'studied' economics? Did you get your degree in this off the back of a cornflakes packet? Sure sounds like it.

Edited April 4, 2011 by samran

[SteeleJoe]

No one uses a credit card to pay bills -- except the millions who do (like my family)

Yeah bro, millions and millions millions.

Here in my village, old ladies buy their "som tam" from that repulsive hag outside SCB bank and pay with American Express. Office girls take motorcycle taxis to the end of the soi and pay the 10 baht fee with Diners Club. My neighbours all buy the daily newspaper from that blind man who stands next to 7-11 and pay with Visa.

Oh -- and in case I forgot -- that alcoholic guy in the soi just behind me buys his "Lao Khao" every day in that depressing mon and pop store and pays with Mastercard.

Jeez -- some of you guys on this forum.

- First of all, I didn't say "Millions and millions", I said "milions" -- as in 2 million up. And as I would have thought obvious, it wasn't attempt at an actual statistic, bro.

- I never claimed that everyone uses credit cards or even had them. I certainly never suggested anything as idiotic as everyone paying for everything with credit cards. So your sarcasm may strike you as amusing but it makes no sense as a refutation of anything I said.

- If Thailand has circa 60 million people, you think that less than 2 million of them ever use a CC? OK, maybe you're right. I apologize and how about I say this in response to mark's absurd claim that no one uses credit cards:

"No one uses a credit card to pay bills -- except the many many who do but which may actually number less than two million and don't include people like old ladies buying their "som tam", office girls taking motorcycle taxis to the end of the soi, neighbours buying the daily newspaper, or alcoholic guys (including the one in the soi behnd Andrew) who buy their "Lao Khao" every day in mom and pop stores."

Time to go to work...

[a51mas]

No one uses a credit card to pay bills -- except the millions who do (like my family)

Yeah bro, millions and millions millions.

Here in my village, old ladies buy their "som tam" from that repulsive hag outside SCB bank and pay with American Express. Office girls take motorcycle taxis to the end of the soi and pay the 10 baht fee with Diners Club. My neighbours all buy the daily newspaper from that blind man who stands next to 7-11 and pay with Visa.

Oh -- and in case I forgot -- that alcoholic guy in the soi just behind me buys his "Lao Khao" every day in that depressing mon and pop store and pays with Mastercard.

Jeez -- some of you guys on this forum.

- First of all, I didn't say "Millions and millions", I said "milions" -- as in 2 million up. And as I would have thought obvious, it wasn't attempt at an actual statistic, bro.

- I never claimed that everyone uses credit cards or even had them. I certainly never suggested anything as idiotic as everyone paying for everything with credit cards. So your sarcasm may strike you as amusing but it makes no sense as a refutation of anything I said.

- If Thailand has circa 60 million people, you think that less than 2 million of them ever use a CC? OK, maybe you're right. I apologize and how about I say this in response to mark's absurd claim that no one uses credit cards:

"No one uses a credit card to pay bills -- except the many many who do but which may actually number less than two million and don't include people like old ladies buying their "som tam", office girls taking motorcycle taxis to the end of the soi, neighbours buying the daily newspaper, or alcoholic guys (including the one in the soi behnd Andrew) who buy their "Lao Khao" every day in mom and pop stores."

Time to go to work...

Do you know, it's not against the forum rules to take a break? you are not required to post every minute.:jap:

[andrewbkk]

If Thailand has circa 60 million people, you think that less than 2 million of them ever use a CC?

Good question: I'd be interested to know how many credit card holders there actually are here in Thailand.

[thaihome]

If Thailand has circa 60 million people, you think that less than 2 million of them ever use a CC?

Good question: I'd be interested to know how many credit card holders there actually are here in Thailand.

According to the BOT, about 14 million with about 73,000 million baht in domestic usage.

Credit Card Data Classified by Types of Cards

Opps, another statistic.

TH

[samran]

If Thailand has circa 60 million people, you think that less than 2 million of them ever use a CC?

Good question: I'd be interested to know how many credit card holders there actually are here in Thailand.

According to the BOT, about 14 million with about 73,000 million baht in domestic usage.

Credit Card Data Classified by Types of Cards

Opps, another statistic.

TH

yeah, but don't you know that these figures are wrong. I mean, we have been clearly told on good authority that figures produced by the Thai government are wrong.

[SteeleJoe]

<br />

<br />

<br />

No one uses a credit card to pay bills -- except the millions who do (like my family)

<br /><br />Yeah bro, millions and millions millions.<br /><br />Here in my village, old ladies buy their "som tam" from that repulsive hag outside SCB bank and pay with American Express. Office girls take motorcycle taxis to the end of the soi and pay the 10 baht fee with Diners Club. My neighbours all buy the daily newspaper from that blind man who stands next to 7-11 and pay with Visa. <br /><br />Oh -- and in case I forgot -- that alcoholic guy in the soi just behind me buys his "Lao Khao" every day in that depressing mon and pop store and pays with Mastercard.<br /><br />Jeez -- some of you guys on this forum.<br />

<br /><br /><br />- First of all, I didn't say "Millions and millions", I said "milions" -- as in 2 million up.  And as I would have thought obvious, it wasn't attempt at an actual statistic, bro.<br /><br />- I never claimed that everyone uses credit cards or even had them. I certainly never suggested anything as idiotic as everyone paying for everything with credit cards. So your sarcasm may strike you as amusing but it makes no sense as a refutation of anything I said.<br /><br />- If Thailand has circa 60 million people, you think that less than 2 million of them ever use a CC? OK, maybe you're right. I apologize and how about I say this in response to mark's absurd claim that no one uses credit cards:<br /><br /><font color="#1c2837">"No one uses a credit card to pay bills -- except the many many who do but which may actually number less than two million and don't include people like </font>old ladies buying their "som tam", office girls taking motorcycle taxis to the end of the soi, neighbours buying the daily newspaper, or alcoholic guys (including the one in the soi behnd Andrew) who buy their "Lao Khao" every day in mom and pop stores."<br /><br /><br /><br />Time to go to work...<br /><br /><br />

<br /><br />Do you know, it's not against the forum rules to take a break? you are not required to post every minute.<img src='http://static.thaivisa.com/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/jap.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':jap:' /><br />

<br /><br /><br />

Oh, da*0n -- why didn't someone tell me sooner?!

[mark45y]

At the end of the month everyone goes to the 7/11 and pays their bills. No one uses a check or credit card. I don't know what the credit card or check usage is but as far as ordinary citizens I would say less than 10% of expenditures are traceable.

I would think that the West is 90% traceable expenses and Thailand is 10%.

Are you really trying to say that the average Thai person has a checking account?

I went to Lotus today and had a cup of coffee and watched the transactions at 6 registers. I watched roughly 100 transactions. I saw 12 credit cards used and no checks. In 6 years I have never seen a bar or restaurant take a check. In all but the more expensive restaurants I have never seen credit card taken.

I think it is fair to say that Thailand is a cash society. I take it you don't.

I got my car fixed the other day. It cost me 11,000 baht. I got it fixed at a reputable repair shop and they used Toyota parts. They didn't give me a receipt and refused my request for one. This is not unusual in Thailand. It would be completely unacceptable in the West.

My contention is that the Thai gray and black market economy is so large that it prevents meaningful statistics being recorded.

My evidence for this is walk out on the street in any Thai town and look around. What you will see is unrecorded inventories and unrecorded sales of almost everything the average Thai buys during the course of an average day.

Income and expenses are impossible to determine at the most basic level. Do most Thais live in apartments that record income? No. Food and shelter are not traceable expenses. That means food and shelter are part of the gray economy.

A tourist brings in $1000. He goes to his GF's house and stays for a week. What part of that $1000 is recorded anywhere? Food, shelter, beverages and miscellaneous services? None. A tourist goes to the West and virtually all of his expenditures are recorded.

• Yeah, everyone goes to 7-11. Well except for the millions(?) who don't. Like me. No one uses a credit card to pay bills -- except the millions who do (like my family).
• In all but the more expensive restaurants you have never seen a credit card taken? I've seen it in hundreds of low to mid-range establishments. I've been her about 4 times longer than 6 years.

• Receipts? Rarely difficult to get from a business. It would be completely unacceptable for me here to have my car serviced (or anything else of high value) at a place that refused to provide me with a receipt.

• Do most Thais live in apartments that record income? Errr...most Thais don't live in apartments. Not sure why that matters. But apartments I've lived in and/or girlfriends lived in (cheap to expensive) "record income".
• Most tourists don't go their "GF's house" to stay for a week. Not sure how much difference your scenario would make.

7/11's make a large part of the cash society possible. It is my contention that the average Thai does not pay bills by mail or credit card. What percent will you admit are living with cash only?

7000 7/11's around the end of the month or beginning of the month or almost any time you are in line someone will be paying a bill there. How many do you think per day? Multiply that by 7000 for each day a bill is paid. How many people are on one electric account? How many people pay cash to top up phone cards instead of a credit by month arrangement?

Restaurants, I think we have a difference in definition. Most Thai people eat at restaurants that don't take credit cards on a daily basis. Maybe on special occasions an MK or something like that but certainly not daily.

The great majority of Thai people don't pay recorded money for shelter. They stay in homes that are payed for. Rent? One person pays rent and the other dwellers in the room pay cash.

A million single men come to Thailand every year. A sizable percent don't pay for hotels. Nor do they get receipts for anything they buy.

Principles of Economics by N. Gregory Mankiw, 2008 estimates Thailand's gray economy at 54% of GDP

Institution Harvard Field Macroeconomics Alma mater MIT (Ph.D., 1984)

Princeton (A.B., 1980)

The US and UK and Japanese economies have a grey economy around or below 10%. You can see how Thailand's 54% makes any attempt at gathering meaningful statistics impossible.

You've just contradicted yourself.

They have estimates of a grey economy, ergo, it the size of the economy can be estimated as an approximation. When people generally refer to a grey economy, it basically means that there are parts of the economy that aren't being taxed, or under taxed. It doesn't mean they can't be estimated in size to a reasonable degree, as Dr Manikow did.

I don't quite get your examples of the cash economy, as they are really bad examples.

The "millions" of desperate men who come to Thailand bring in foreign currency, which gets converted to Thai baht. It is recorded. Done.

At the 7-11, people may pay cash for their services. But 7-11 is a business no? Or are you saying the power company, 7-11 and the phone company aren't being recorded as well for GDP purposes? No, it is recorded.

You pull money out of the ATM? It is being recorded - probably booked as consumption. Done.

You might be partly right that the noodle vendor isn't being directly recorded. But so what? They ultimately buy their inputs from big wholesalers (through a variety of middlemen). At some point, these transactions are being recorded. Done again.

It is thoroughly possible to make approximations therefore based on the economic activity. It isn't rocket science.

You mentioned you 'studied' economics? Did you get your degree in this off the back of a cornflakes packet? Sure sounds like it.

I send $10 dollars by Western Union to Lek. Lek takes the money to the bank and changes it into baht. A tourist bring in $10 in cash and changes that $10 into baht at the local money changer. Somchai sells services to a ship docked in Thailand and they pay $10 he changes it into baht at the bank. What are those transactions logged as? They aren't logged as anything. They are simply money transactions. No one knows what was the source of the $10 dollars. Is it tourist dollars? Is it business, legal or illegal? No one knows.

Noodle income? Yes somewhere along the chain there is a recorded purchase at the wholesale price for noodles. 10%, plus or minue 10% of the eventual retail value. It tells me nothing meaningful.

[mark45y]

The only economic statistics that one can rely on in Thailand are the same as one can rely on in China. For example electricity usage because that is state controlled and the volume of sales and usage is tracked.

What you can't rely on, 1. Income estimates, 2. Bank deposits. 3. Expenses.

To sum up, no one knows how much money people make or spend with any measure of reliability.

Do economists have any magic tools to tell them how much money is in the unofficial banking system? No.

The majority 54% of the Thai economy is untraceable and untaxed.

Economists can give you a rough idea plus or minus 10 or 15% of line items but that although interesting is hardly considered accurate statistical data.

Can an individual start a bank? Sure, thousands do it every day. What do you think has fueled the Thai hotel building boom. If I want a loan to buy some land I don't go to a bank I go to Somchai who runs a “Share” loan system. I won't go into the methodology but these “Share” systems exist all over Thailand in every social strata.

All of these unofficial money systems are linked to Thailand's agrarian roots and tied to the land. As Thailand becomes more industrialized they will shrink in size and the economy will go more on the books (at least that is the theory).