Thaksin Will Only Return If Granted Amnesty: Chaiyasit

[selftaopath]

We should welcome him back if it is the will of the Thai people. Some people seem to forget he is still extremely popular.

In some circles he's still popular. But would Thaksin be a democratically acceptable politician on your home turf?

To answer your question: I doubt it. However TIT and not here much surprises me any-longer. I seriously doubt much will change here in the next 100 years.

[SteeleJoe]

I'm not really interested in getting into another one of these "Yes, he is!/No, he isn't!" things right now,but I am genuinely curious about one simple thing...

Oberkommando:

Could you provide sources for this: "crime rate is rising, drug use is at unprecedented levels"? If it's true, I'd be interested to know if it's clearly indicative or even suggestive of being a result of not having Thaksin; or if it is any different from typical trends (Thailand and/or worldwide) regardless of who is PM.

[SteeleJoe]

Oh, and the Burma thing:

If anything the military had far greater control in the past than they do now and I think it's fair to say it was nothing like Burma -- now even less so; I simply see no reason to think it would go that way given the trends seen over the last few decades. I honestly think a far greater danger -- though how great I'm not willing to speculate at the moment -- is of a dictatorship by a single very smart, ruthless, massively wealthy and extremely powerful individual who knows how to use the system and has the military under some control: there's no doubt many who would aspire to that -- but only one person I think up to the task.

Guess who?

[Tonto21]

Tonto

I think Thaksin has taken it well past the don't offend anyone standards.

And that is part of the problem. He has thrown out societal mores to make more and more money,

and only shows respect to those that he can profit on, till that's finished, then non at all.

DaveA yes he did make threats about british farangs.

Yes I think your right animatic, that’s one of the reasons they turned on him, he turned the tap off for the tea money for all but his own. The other thing IMO, he awoke the poor and uneducated, a knock on effect of his polices and methods to seize power and wealth and boy did this piss-off the real power in Thailand. It a shame we can’t expand this discussion because of TV rules….. But there you go.

[Netfan]

Isn't Thaksin the same guy who compared himself to Aung San Suu Kyi and Nelson Mandela? But he's afraid to come back unless all is forgiven? How can he look at himself in the mirror? The man has no dignity.

[scorecard]

You stated:

"A civilian elected government should always be in control of the military, otherwise we see coups and interference as has been the case since 2006".

two comments:

1. Military coups and military 'interfenerce' as you put it, go back a lot lot further than 2006, and it's interesting that just one coup earlier, in 1992, the paymaster was given a gift of a 'telecom licence' (with no biding, and at that time Thailand was well and truly locked into policy that telecoms must be totally state operated) by one of the main and very ruthless leaders of that coup (sinbce deceased). So my question is why do you 'start' your comment about coups at 2006? Plus, would you please share your comments on the 'telecom licence' gift from a ruthless general.

2. Who seem to be saying that it's a global law that "A civilian elected government should always be in control of the military.......". The fact is that every country has it's own unique history of how democracy has developed, and every country has it's own right to have it's own history. Your demand that Thailand must follow your 'law' on this point is out of line.

[whybother]

Case closed story over.

Does it really make any difference?

Even if he can/does prove anything, will it make any difference as to whether anyone agrees or disagrees with what he is posting?

[SteeleJoe]

"A civilian elected government should always be in control of the military, otherwise we see coups and interference as has been the case since 2006".

Wow. I missed that.

Try "since 1932".

[Scott]

Off-topic discussion removed. Please stay on-topic. Comments need to be restricted to the content of the posts, not the history of the poster.

[gregb]

Unfortunately your third sentence says it all, and that's the problem. There is a very real possibility of him getting amnesty (see 1st response to Oberkommando's post above), which I think would be unacceptable to the majority, even if it is what 40% say they want, by voting Peua Thai.

Disagree completely. Doesn't matter what percentage still like him. He is too divisive. Granting him amnesty would mean a protracted civil war. It will never happen. A coup to prevent it might. That might lead to war anyway. The original coup happened not because of greed, as some people would like to believe, but because it was necessary to prevent bloodshed.

He won't be returning to this Thailand. If he returns to any Thailand at all, it will be to war torn country as a putrid evil who happily destroyed this great kingdom for the sake of his own ego.

[OhMyCod]

Tonto

I think Thaksin has taken it well past the don't offend anyone standards.

And that is part of the problem. He has thrown out societal mores to make more and more money,

and only shows respect to those that he can profit on, till that's finished, then non at all.

DaveA yes he did make threats about british farangs.

Can you provide more details of the threats, links, quotes etc..thx

[ib1b4]

Case closed story over.

Does it really make any difference?

Even if he can/does prove anything, will it make any difference as to whether anyone agrees or disagrees with what he is posting?

Well you are may be right , the bickering between these members shows clearly the divide which so many others feed off, which is a dissapointment to other members who try to absorb the facts which seem to be increasingly clouded when it comes to political issues like this one.

[bitterbatter]

The sad thing is that probably the only thing which could really educate Thaksin as to reality and get him in touch with the people would be if he was forced to live with them on their terms ...a.k.a. prison. It would really be the best thing for him, but he is such a wossy. Somebody send him a bottle of Fukushima red wine and lets be done with this.

[Markaew]

I'm not really interested in getting into another one of these "Yes, he is!/No, he isn't!" things right now,but I am genuinely curious about one simple thing...

Oberkommando:

Could you provide sources for this: "crime rate is rising, drug use is at unprecedented levels"? If it's true, I'd be interested to know if it's clearly indicative or even suggestive of being a result of not having Thaksin; or if it is any different from typical trends (Thailand and/or worldwide) regardless of who is PM.

That was refreshing. Just a good simple question with no politics and a good question at that. Anyone have the answer?

[Markaew]

Thai Visa hit the jackpot with this topic. It will go on for weeks!

[sirchai]

"A civilian elected government should always be in control of the military, otherwise we see coups and interference as has been the case since 2006".

Wow. I missed that.

Try "since 1932".

The retired general also expressed confidence in peace returning to the country if Thaksin were able to come home, adding that the former PM would not demand that his seized assets be given back.

Guess the general isn't retired, just retarded. How could any toxic substance bring peace to this country? After all........:jap:

[cutter007]

Love all the comments, everyone reading minute to minute news.

Thaksin isn't a complete idiot (unlike a lot of the posters), he has at least read a bit about thai politics in the

last hundred years.

The oil fund is dry, big surprise, elections will follow soon after, inflation will get a blast of

red bull, and the blame game cycle will continue. The democrats are more predictable than a corrupt land officer.

There is some strategy to the game.

Why would you serve a jail sentence in Thailand if you didn't have to? it's not like the Thai judiciary is concerned about

things like justice, history definitely doesn't reflect that.

You do noy go to jail in Thailand, if you have no choice, you change the opinion, that has been the system for over 100 years.

[yoshiwara]

If PTP are already anticipating the possibility of their defeat ahead of the election being declared then they are in big trouble. What is worrying is that if Thaksin concludes there is no way they can win, then the dirty stuff will be rolled out to disrupt the electoral process. Fortunately they showed what they are prepared to do last year and 2009 and can can be anticipated. The other piece of luck is that PAD have already blown their hand so an unholy alliance not worth the effort.

[animatic]

I'm not really interested in getting into another one of these "Yes, he is!/No, he isn't!" things right now,but I am genuinely curious about one simple thing...

Oberkommando:

Could you provide sources for this: "crime rate is rising, drug use is at unprecedented levels"? If it's true, I'd be interested to know if it's clearly indicative or even suggestive of being a result of not having Thaksin; or if it is any different from typical trends (Thailand and/or worldwide) regardless of who is PM.

Of course this would be apparent world wide, since the financial crisis is something that goes way beyond what the government of Thailand can regulate. A recession bordering on the 1930's depression of global scale.

Of course when economies are bad, crime rates rise, drug and alcohol abuse rates rise to noticeably higher levels. And those who might other wise not have done illegal acts like drug distribution and petty crime now will take the risk, because the economy is sour for the moment.

I hate to think what levels they would be at if Korn hadn't put the brakes on the freefall PPP had left the economy in when they left office. So their plan with PTP is to vote back in the 2nd string team of the one that dropped the ball with PPP.... and let them not notice what's happening in the world yet again. "Brilliant!" As 'The Kids In The Hall' might say with full sarcasm.

[animatic]

If PTP are already anticipating the possibility of their defeat ahead of the election being declared then they are in big trouble. What is worrying is that if Thaksin concludes there is no way they can win, then the dirty stuff will be rolled out to disrupt the electoral process. Fortunately they showed what they are prepared to do last year and 2009 and can can be anticipated. The other piece of luck is that PAD have already blown their hand so an unholy alliance not worth the effort.

We can easily imagine that the more raucous the Reds are the more the average Thai will want to vote against more of the same.

Can you imagine the red rallies in support of a reinstalled PTP with Thaksin kin and cronies at the helm..... With rose colored glasses of wishful thinking, yesteryears good points over take and over shadow, the more recent bad points, all of which more describe current events than 'past glories'.

Thaksin's dogs of war will be let off the leash each time he wants to silence more dissent at his plans. Lets not forget how nicely PAD was treated when trying to stop the PPP voting him a free pass, and from that point until PPP resigned it was open warfare by stealth on them because that Kuhn T. needed his free pass.

There might be a short honey moon if PTP takes over, but it will not last, and it will get messy as hell. We've seen it before...

[hyperdimension]

Oh, and the Burma thing:

If anything the military had far greater control in the past than they do now and I think it's fair to say it was nothing like Burma -- now even less so; I simply see no reason to think it would go that way given the trends seen over the last few decades. I honestly think a far greater danger -- though how great I'm not willing to speculate at the moment -- is of a dictatorship by a single very smart, ruthless, massively wealthy and extremely powerful individual who knows how to use the system and has the military under some control: there's no doubt many who would aspire to that -- but only one person I think up to the task.

Guess who?

If Thaksin had the military not just "under some control" but under 100% control (or close to it) it would be absolutely frightening, especially with the fact that the probability of it happening is not zero. Then I think we would get a country more like Burma or North Korea. There would be no need for any "Royal Pardon". He could simply point his guns to get anything he wants.

[animatic]

Oh, and the Burma thing:

If anything the military had far greater control in the past than they do now and I think it's fair to say it was nothing like Burma -- now even less so; I simply see no reason to think it would go that way given the trends seen over the last few decades. I honestly think a far greater danger -- though how great I'm not willing to speculate at the moment -- is of a dictatorship by a single very smart, ruthless, massively wealthy and extremely powerful individual who knows how to use the system and has the military under some control: there's no doubt many who would aspire to that -- but only one person I think up to the task.

Guess who?

If Thaksin had the military not just "under some control" but under 100% control (or close to it) it would be absolutely frightening, especially with the fact that the probability of it happening is not zero. Then I think we would get a country more like Burma or North Korea. There would be no need for any "Royal Pardon". He could simply point his guns to get anything he wants.

And he would.

[Pi Sek]

Unfortunately your third sentence says it all, and that's the problem. There is a very real possibility of him getting amnesty (see 1st response to Oberkommando's post above), which I think would be unacceptable to the majority, even if it is what 40% say they want, by voting Peua Thai.

Disagree completely. Doesn't matter what percentage still like him. He is too divisive. Granting him amnesty would mean a protracted civil war. It will never happen. A coup to prevent it might. That might lead to war anyway. The original coup happened not because of greed, as some people would like to believe, but because it was necessary to prevent bloodshed.

He won't be returning to this Thailand. If he returns to any Thailand at all, it will be to war torn country as a putrid evil who happily destroyed this great kingdom for the sake of his own ego.

Greg, read my post again and you will see you are actually agreeing with me... basically you are saying that it cannot happen because of the dire consequences, when unfortunately the reality is that a lot of people really could not give two hoots about the consequences, or refuse to believe that they will be dire. Some of them just want to get rich in 6 months like Thaksin said, for example. There is a reason that Thaksin chose to "champion the poor" and it was absolutely not to benefit their lot in life, as we saw from the outcome of the Loans for Farmers scheme.

I am saying that, IF Peua Thai form a majority coalition and get into power, they will try to get amnesty for Thaksin by whatever means - changing the constitution dramatically, for example. I am saying that such action might bring enormous public opposition and civil war.

What you are saying is that the army will step in before this happens. I am not sure about this, I'd prefer not to give an answer and stay in the hope that Abhisit's coalition retains their majority and there are no serious defections (like I expect).

[phiphidon]

If PTP are already anticipating the possibility of their defeat ahead of the election being declared then they are in big trouble. What is worrying is that if Thaksin concludes there is no way they can win, then the dirty stuff will be rolled out to disrupt the electoral process. Fortunately they showed what they are prepared to do last year and 2009 and can can be anticipated. The other piece of luck is that PAD have already blown their hand so an unholy alliance not worth the effort.

So you and quite a few others posting their views have failed to notice that Bucholzs post No.26 (including his comment "Getting an early jump on the accusations..." which seems calculated to start the ball rolling, and did) does not say anything like what the Nations' deliberately misleading title states;

Pheu Thai accuses Government of cheating in the next poll if Pheu Thai fails to win

No, they haven't. The very first sentence states the truth of the matter - It is the Democrats spokesmans spindoctored opinion of what the PTP meant when they made a statement that they would win 270 seats;

Democrat Leader's Spokesperson Thepthai Senpong said the 270-seat claim by the Pheu Thai Party was to mislead the public by saying that if it did not win the next election it would be because the government was cheating.

Which is nowhere near the PTP accusing the democrats of cheating in case they lose the election. Political Parties make statements like the PTP did as part of the electoral process. Unfortunately the democrats obviously fearing something, have started the dirty tricks already and using the media whilst doing it, which considering the democrats recent proclamations on the use of the media (http://www.thaivisa....ming-elections/) is embarassing (or should be) to say the least..

We can only expect more of the same but at least keep your minds open, even a little bit, before you jump on the bandwagon posting.

[jdinasia]

PhiPhiDon -- please feel free to go back to post 26 and read the second sentence of the second paragraph.

[rubl]

We can only expect more of the same but at least keep your minds open, even a little bit, before you jump on the bandwagon posting.

Open mind, would be nice, but seems not easy for quite a few.

On 2010-07-20 k. Chalerm predicted 300 seats, on 2011-03-22 a slight correction to 270 ( ). "The spokesman said the party's goal was to win as many as 270 MP seats in the next election expected to be held early next year." ( http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/2010/07/22/politics/Northeast-Pheu-Thai-MPs-kowtow-to-Payap-30134321.html). The public has really been enlightened about this, check Robert A.'s website on Thailand for all the finer details on history rewriting.

"I have little sympathy for the claims made by some on the opposition/red shirt side of politics that Abhisit will use electoral cheating and manipulation to hold onto office." ( http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2011/03/31/will-thailands-elections-be-fair/?amp )

The stage is set. Read my lips, 'we will win 270 seats unless something goes wrong'. I let my dear audience decide on who the 'we' is.

(PS I wrote 'is' I mean 'is' )

[phiphidon]

PhiPhiDon -- please feel free to go back to post 26 and read the second sentence of the second paragraph.

I have re - read the second sentence of the second paragraph as you suggested, again and again. I stand by my statement. That entire paragraph is attributed to the thoughts of the democratic spokesman. If the PTP had said

The Pheu Thai Party added to their confidence that the only reason it would not win the next election could be only because the government has already orchestrated a plan to cheat in the next poll in order to topple the Pheu Thai Party.

it would have been in quotation marks and a search of the internet would reveal the source of that remark, supposedly the PTP. I have not found such a link, or anything like it, anywhere. You are welcome to prove me wrong by providing such a quote and I would happily accept it. In the meantime, may I respectfully ask you to re - read that paragraph, without bias, using grammatical logic (if there is such a thing, otherwise I've just made up a new English language examination subject ) and see that it is indeed a continuation of the thoughts expressed by the democrat spokesman in the first sentence of that paragraph and not a statement from the PTP.

[chainarong]

Yeah , Right, now pull the other leg.

[phiphidon]

Yeah , Right, now pull the other leg.

And your counter argument is................?

[geriatrickid]

I hate to think what levels they would be at if Korn hadn't put the brakes on the freefall PPP had left the economy in when they left office. So their plan with PTP is to vote back in the 2nd string team of the one that dropped the ball with PPP.... and let them not notice what's happening in the world yet again. "Brilliant!" As 'The Kids In The Hall' might say with full sarcasm.

Why not actually think instead of hating to think about it?

It won't hurt to coax out some rational reasoning.

The seeds of economic problems were sown long before Thaksin was in office. When PM Banharn Silpa – Archa, of the Chart Thai was in power, the finances of Thailand were ok. he left Thailand in decent shape.

Then came along the military with General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh in 1997 and the economy went south fast. It was still quite poor when he was replaced by the Democrat Chuan Leekpai. However, Leekpai managed to stabilize things. However, both the military dictatorship and Abhisit's Democratic party that followed the junta left the economy in a mess. This cannot be disputed. Look at the economic indices of the time.

Thaksin took over and kept the economy stable. he also took measures that laid the foundation for today's improvements. Korn has inherited the payoffs of the investment policies and fiscal decisions taken during the Thaksin era. That's how it works. Every government inherits a legacy from the previous government(s). You make Korn out to be some sort of fiscal genius. He isn't. He is no worse and no better than the finance minister that preceded him.

When you write, you have a tendency to block out past events that interfere with your chronic vilification of Thaksin. Conveniently ignoring the economic catastrophes that distinguished the military rule and Abhisit's Democrat party prior to Thaksin does not make your statement reliable. Go and read the economic indices and see for yourself.