Ballot And Bloodshed Could Hinge On Thaksin's Leadership Decision

[webfact]

BURNING ISSUE

Ballot and bloodshed could hinge on Thaksin's leadership decision

By Avudh Panananda

The Nation

A miscalculation by former premier Thaksin Shinawatra may cause Thailand to plunge further into political turbulence following the early election.

Last week the Shinawatra clan held a meeting in Dubai and Thaksin was reportedly in favour of endorsing his younger sister Yingluck Shinawatra as Pheu Thai's prime ministerial candidate.

Sources close to the family said Thaksin had already made up his mind on the issue. However, his public statements indicated otherwise.

Initially, Thaksin said he would introduce the Pheu Thai candidate for premiership by this week to coincide with the unveiling of the party's campaign platforms and electoral candidates.

Later he modified his stand, saying he would finalise his decision after the dissolution of Parliament. Recently, he hinted that he might not even reveal his favourite for the position of prime minister before the result of the ballot is known.

Even though Thaksin has the discretion to decide when to say - or not to say - who should lead the next government, Pheu Thai will surely face an insurmountable handicap if its campaigning is shrouded in mystery on who he will appoint as prime minister if the party wins.

And the main opposition party's campaign prospects will see a change for the worse if Thaksin orders Pheu Thai to prop Yingluck up.

Presently the two rival parties, the Democrats and Pheu Thai, are a neck-and-neck in terms of popularity. Making a poor choice about who will be premier could be a catastrophe for Pheu Thai. The difference could be critical and turn the chance of a sound victory into a shattering defeat.

It is understandable that Thaksin may favour his sister Yingluck for the top post. Family friends say she absolutely adores her brother. For the past two years, she has proven to be an effective representative for her brother managing ties with Pheu Thai MPs.

As puppeteer, Thaksin should strive to find a trusted and agile puppet. But the puppeteer and his puppet should not forget that their show is staged for an audience and not for their own entertainment.

Thaksin still has about a month to review his decision. Yingluck is trustworthy with proven skills for running business and getting MPs to toe the line. But Thaksin should not overlook the fact that Yingluck is a wild card in regard to attracting popular votes.

In the event of a Pheu Thai victory, Yingluck would be Thaksin's excellent choice to lead the next government, to pave way for him to enjoy a triumphant return from life on the run as a political convict.

But the election has yet to start and the outcome is not a foregone conclusion.

In the history of elections around the world, voters tend not to cast ballots when key factors are unknown.

When the late prime minister Samak Sundaravej led People Power Party to victory in the 2007 election, he was a campaign magnet to attract popular votes in his own right.

Yingluck has no political credentials to follow in Samak's footsteps. The red shirts and Pheu Thai supporters will probably vote for individual candidates under the Pheu Thai banner. But will their popular ballots cast for the proportionate vote go to Yingluck?

Should Pheu Thai be defeated in popular votes, the chance of Yingluck forming the next government will disappear and Thaksin's prodding and planning will collapse like a house of cards. A major loss in popular votes would likely cause Pheu Thai to disintegrate.

Without Pheu Thai as his political base, Thaksin would be forced to lean toward the red-shirt movement. This would not bode well for the country.

The movement is tainted by questionable rhetoric on the monarchy. And if Thaksin resumes his close association with the red shirts, like in 2008 and 2009, it is possible there will be more riots and bloodshed on the streets of Bangkok.

-- The Nation 2011-04-19

[SomTumTiger]

PTP has no one to lead (or wants to lead), except that old fart Sanoh. And certainly no one who is going to beat Mark, head to head.

Edited April 19, 2011 by SomTumTiger

[animatic]

Thaksin's longstanding main problem is his tendency under pressure to go for those he most thinks he can control, regardless of what others think of this. The more the pressure the more ragged and haphazard his decision making becomes.

This week with Chavalit gone, his former enforcer Chalerm long gone, Minkwans faction very pissed off, and Sanoh likely to go with Chavalit, and he hasn't even NAMED his choice for candidate... well the pressure is well and truly ratcheted up.

If you add to this that, he is being completely un-democratic in how the party operates, and that this will in no way be lost on his erstwhile partners, and the public at large, then, no amount of Reds screaming they are for democracy, can paper over the total LACK of democracy in play in PTP.

By backing PTP to bring back Thaksin, and that even if he is not elected, he will dictate national policy through PTP surrogates and puppets, how can anyone but the deepest ingrained zealots feel this is what the country should be voting for.

And yet more.

Add in the Reds going right off the reservation into serious LM territory you get the picture that Thaksin has lost control of his creation in Frankenstiening proportions and instead of being the Kindly Baron returned to positively manage the life of his leiges in the village below, it now turns him into the fool who unleashed the beast on his own villagers, all of whom may well be happy to pick up the pitch forks and torches and chase the madmans creation into the tower to burn.

So what happens if his political machine front falls apart?...

Well that leaves him with his street war machine and there in comes the risk of bloodshed. If Thaksin feels the politicians have become traitors, that leaves him with ONLY the rabble rousers and violent zealots to try and win the day... Will he yet again let his dogs off the leash???

Edited April 19, 2011 by animatic

[siampolee]

It would seem as if Thaksin is losing control. Whether it is a cosmetic operation or not remains to be seen.

However, he along with assorted Red Shirt factions are akin to wounded animals who will strike out regardless of the damage that those actions may inflict upon others in their fight for survival. They are extremely dangerous !!

The power Thaksin has at hand via his family is certainly strong as is ( or one presumes so ) his financial clout too, the buying of power is not a cause unknown to Thaksin or for that matter many other politicians here either.

In my opinion we are in for an interesting ride in the run up to the upcoming election and of course the result of that election will dictate the next diresction Thailand and its people will go.

This is indeed make or break time for Thailand and its people, only going to be one chance and this is it.

Deperate ends lead to desperate means and I am sure Thaksin and people like Jatuporn will indeed use any means possible to achieve their ends and thus their benefit.

We should, in fact I feel we can expect a very messy and sad to say violent election campaign with the country awash with money.

Edited April 19, 2011 by siampolee

[Radicalguy]

Personally I don't think Yingluck has a chance. No Experience, and do Thai elites want there country run by a Female? = I Doubt it.

[janverbeem]

Even though Thaksin has the discretion to decide when to say - or not to say - who should lead the next government

So now a politically banned,fugitive criminal who even doesn't hold a thai passport has the discretion to say who will lead this country in the future?Unseen Thailand indeed.

Edited April 19, 2011 by janverbeem

[geriatrickid]

There will be surprises and expect the unexpected.

[rogerdee123]

How about Goodluck Jonathan

[SomTumTiger]

There will be surprises and expect the unexpected.

On that, we agree. What those surprises might be, we probably don't lol. Hopefully I will be surprised if the Reds decide not to burn down any more buildings!

[exbelg]

the next leader of this country should be a black, like in the US, and the next next one a woman, and the next next next one a FARANG

[cantona_777]

Even though Thaksin has the discretion to decide when to say - or not to say - who should lead the next government

So now a politically banned,fugitive criminal who even doesn't hold a thai passport has the discretion to say who will lead this country in the future?Unseen Thailand indeed.

He'll have to do visa runs on his Montenegrin passport.

TIT.

Edited April 19, 2011 by cantona_777

[IvanDobsky]

where I come from, party members vote for their leader from a list of candidates. It's terribly old fashioned, we know, but we call it democracy : the least worst system available.

What are the chances of Thailand adopting this system? :jap:

[IvanDobsky]

the next leader of this country should be a black, like in the US, and the next next one a woman, and the next next next one a FARANG

Nice idea but I think you've got somewhere between no chance and fat chance.

[Insight]

There will be surprises and expect the unexpected.

On that, we agree. What those surprises might be, we probably don't lol. Hopefully I will be surprised if the Reds decide not to burn down any more buildings!

The red shirts, or Phua Thai? It's easier than ever to get them both confused nowadays

[virtualtraveller]

The winds of change have been blowing against Thaksin for quite some time now, he's just too obstinate to realise it, and the odds of him returning are becoming increasingly insurmountable. Yes, there's a realistic chance of getting his crowd back in power which will improve things for him but there remains a lot of hoops for PTP to jump through before Thaksin can return, leading no doubt to some compromising damage to the party spirit, and of course their legitimacy in the eyes of the public.

The mistake this writer makes, like many, is to assume that a PT victory at the polls will be a freedom ticket for Thaksin, but that is to hold the justice system of this country in contempt. Once in govt, PT will have their work cut out for them to pave the way for his return causing all sorts of stress and pressure for their leader (Yingluck) and members. Expect further defections.

My guess is that the Puea Thai party will continue to whither and disintegrate, which is a pity for all the poor who placed their hopes in this lot.

[zthyadat]

where I come from, party members vote for their leader from a list of candidates. It's terribly old fashioned, we know, but we call it democracy : the least worst system available.

What are the chances of Thailand adopting this system? :jap:

Yes, it is quite amazing (though not at all surprising) to consider that the Red Shirts were screaming for "democracy" a year ago and now their defacto leader undermines it - as he always has - through autocratic decisions. It seems that the concept of democracy here is that the people select their preferred dictator, a "strong" leader who will handle everything for them as any Confucian patriarch is obliged to.

[auserb]

How about Goodluck Jonathan

And yes, I would say yes good luck Thaksim !!!!

[Oberkommando]

On that, we agree. What those surprises might be, we probably don't lol. Hopefully I will be surprised if the Reds decide not to burn down any more buildings!

I don't really care about burning shopping malls. Insurance paid out and the mall is being rebuilt.

In contrast, hundreds of thousands of people were affected by the airport takeovers, including myself. It made Thailand a laughing stock in the international community and cost untold billions in economic damages.

The big surprise will be when the PT get a majority but fail to form a government, then there will be remonstrations against another Democrat coalition and the country will plunge irreparably into further chaos.

Well, it's no surprise really to those paying attention.

[Just1Voice]

I tend to adhere to the old adage about not believing everything you see, and only half of what you read. The term "smoke & mirrors" also comes to mind.

But there's also something else to consider, which could bode well for PTP and badly for the Dems. A number of PTP leaders have been charged with LM violations. Guilty or not, I have no idea, as the papers never tell what was supposedly said for fear of having themselves charged as well. But let's say that Jutaporn & Company ARE found guilty. Do you think for one second that PTP, Thaksin, and the Reds Shirts won't "spin" this into a "plot by the Dems and Military" to get rid of the competition so the Dems and their uniformed buddies can maintain control? I wouldn't be surprised to see comparisons made to Burma and how the Generals there pretty much eliminated ANY competition by either locking them up, disbanding their parties, or "disqualifying" them on some technicality.

On the "flip side", if they are found 'not guilty', once again the "spin" will be that the Dems and the Military TRIED to "rig the elections", but failed, and that the loyalty to the highest institution has never been in doubt by PTP, Reds, etc., but it shows the extremes to which the Dems and Military would go to prevent the people from truly having their leaders elected.

Either way, PTP/Reds/Thaksin benefit, Dems/Military could take some hits they really don't want.

[ToffeEFCpower]

Is there a man woman or child left prepared to die for Adolf Thaksin?

[hyperdimension]

A number of PTP leaders have been charged with LM violations. Guilty or not, I have no idea, as the papers never tell what was supposedly said for fear of having themselves charged as well.

There were thousands of witnesses who heard the speeches. Have any of them proclaimed that the statements either did or did not insult the monarchy?

Were anyone in this discussion forum actually there and can shed some light on the kind of thing that was said?

[zthyadat]

On that, we agree. What those surprises might be, we probably don't lol. Hopefully I will be surprised if the Reds decide not to burn down any more buildings!

I don't really care about burning shopping malls. Insurance paid out and the mall is being rebuilt.

In contrast, hundreds of thousands of people were affected by the airport takeovers, including myself. It made Thailand a laughing stock in the international community and cost untold billions in economic damages.

The big surprise will be when the PT get a majority but fail to form a government, then there will be remonstrations against another Democrat coalition and the country will plunge irreparably into further chaos.

Well, it's no surprise really to those paying attention.

On what, besides a possible personal bias, are you basing the assumption of a PT majority?

[newermonkey]

How about Goodluck Jonathan

And yes, I would say yes good luck Thaksim !!!!

And how about offering: Bad Luck Thaksimmmmnnnm

[sausageandmash]

Even a Paki with Thai nationality has no chance. Bud-bud-jing-jing!

the next leader of this country should be a black, like in the US, and the next next one a woman, and the next next next one a FARANG

Nice idea but I think you've got somewhere between no chance and fat chance.

[whatsupdoc]

On that, we agree. What those surprises might be, we probably don't lol. Hopefully I will be surprised if the Reds decide not to burn down any more buildings!

I don't really care about burning shopping malls. Insurance paid out and the mall is being rebuilt.

In contrast, hundreds of thousands of people were affected by the airport takeovers, including myself. It made Thailand a laughing stock in the international community and cost untold billions in economic damages.

The big surprise will be when the PT get a majority but fail to form a government, then there will be remonstrations against another Democrat coalition and the country will plunge irreparably into further chaos.

Well, it's no surprise really to those paying attention.

Usually the insurance doesn't pay if there has been damage because of a riot. Furthermore it is not only the owner of the shopping mall but also the not-so-rich people who rent a retail space there. Not talking about the staff who lost their jobs etcetera.... Not really care about the burning of a shopping mall??? It might not affect you, but it does affect a whole lot of other people.

The airport takeover caused a lot of problems but as far as I can tell the economic damage of the Songkran riots was far bigger. My own (tourism-dependant) business lost far more because of the Songkran mayhem than because of the airport closures.

[arrowsdawdle]

the next leader of this country should be a black, like in the US, and the next next one a woman, and the next next next one a FARANG

Nice idea but I think you've got somewhere between no chance and fat chance.

Not so farfetched really, so long as there is a little Chinese somewhere in the bloodline.

[anterian]

It seems to me that the way the LM laws are employed that they are so flexible that even a comment on the weather can be suspect, come to think of it, there's a Royal rain making squadron. But I like the rain, keeps things cooler

[rubl]

It seems to me that the way the LM laws are employed that they are so flexible that even a comment on the weather can be suspect, come to think of it, there's a Royal rain making squadron. But I like the rain, keeps things cooler

You're lucky then, storm warning has been issued for the next few days. That's assuming you'll be in Thailand

[scorecard]

On that, we agree. What those surprises might be, we probably don't lol. Hopefully I will be surprised if the Reds decide not to burn down any more buildings!

I don't really care about burning shopping malls. Insurance paid out and the mall is being rebuilt.

In contrast, hundreds of thousands of people were affected by the airport takeovers, including myself. It made Thailand a laughing stock in the international community and cost untold billions in economic damages.

The big surprise will be when the PT get a majority but fail to form a government, then there will be remonstrations against another Democrat coalition and the country will plunge irreparably into further chaos.

Well, it's no surprise really to those paying attention.

So a group of thugs come along and burn down your personal business premises and/or your house, putting large numbers of people in serious danger, then you would just brush it off and say 'never mind, don't worry, it's all ok, my insurance will pay'?

[anterian]

It seems to me that the way the LM laws are employed that they are so flexible that even a comment on the weather can be suspect, come to think of it, there's a Royal rain making squadron. But I like the rain, keeps things cooler

You're lucky then, storm warning has been issued for the next few days. That's assuming you'll be in Thailand

Storm warning, you mean worse than today and yesterday? Bring it on

I lived in Slovenia for a year, loved it, the thunder used to reverberate off the mountains and the wind and rain whistled through the valley like a wind tunnel. Mind you their houses were built for it