Pheu Thai Set To Beat Democrats By Narrow Margin: Survey

[webfact]

PT set to beat Democrats by narrow margin: survey

By The Nation

Pheu Thai looks to beat the Democrats in the voting for political parties, as it outscores the coalition leader in all areas except integrity, according to an opinion poll.

Noppadol Kannikar, director of Abac Poll, said the survey found that 36.4 per cent of the survey respondents would select Pheu Thai, the current opposition leader, while 34.1 per cent would tick the Democrats.

Besides choosing a representative from their constituency, voters also chose a party.

The party with the most proportional votes captures the most partylist seats.

From May 17, Abac Poll of Assumption University asked 2,143 residents in 17 provinces aged 18 and above to compare the strong points of the two major parties - the Democrats and Pheu Thai - and which party they would vote for if the election were held today.

The provinces include Bangkok, Ayutthaya, Chiang Mai, Nong Khai, Khon Kaen, Pattani and Songkhla.

Noppadol said support for the Democrats had dropped from 39.6 per cent in the last survey, while support for Pheu Thai had risen from 36.2 per cent.

The latest survey might be indicating growing disappointment in the perceived poor performance of the current government, he said.

Integrity was the only strongpoint of the Democrats, but after the Cabinet rushed to approve scores of projects last week, the public started to doubt the coalition's leader integrity, he said.

Pheu Thai was the party with the best chance to become the next coalition leader, he said.

"If Pheu Thai can convince the public that it can be a transparent government that will declare war on corruption, its popularity will increase further and more people will decide to vote for it," he said.

The latest survey results showed that the Democrats had their work cut out for them to overcome Pheu Thai in the upcoming election, he said.

Thepthai Senpong, personal spokesman of the Democrat leader, played down the survey results, saying they only reflected the views of certain groups in society. The answers were also influenced by the way the questions were asked, he said.

The popularity ratings of political parties always fluctuate and normally voters make up their minds about seven days before election day, he added.

Box

How the public views the strong points of the Democrats and Pheu Thai

Criteria: Democrats, Pheu Thai (%)

Integrity: 51.6 48.4

Vision and policies: 41.0 59.0

Management efficiency: 35.5 54.5

Democratic ideology: 44.5 55.5

Downtoearth: 38.2 61.8

Economic performance: 35.4 64.6

Social development performance 42.8: 57.2

Foreign affairs: 38.1 61.9

Public acceptance: 39.1 60.9

Acceptance by international community: 41.4 58.6

Political manoeuvring, ability to share political interests: 41.1 58.9

-- The Nation 2011-05-09

[maewrocks]

Democrats, Pheu Thai (%)

Management efficiency: 35.5 54.5

Economic performance: 35.4 64.6

Vision and policies: 41.0 59.0

Public acceptance: 39.1 60.9.........

It's time for these muppets to get out!! Unelected and unfit to govern. In the last election they were massacred 165: 233

Even though you Dem defenders claim the 'Westminster system' and 'fairly elected by fellow members of the house', the simple fact is; there is not another country in the world that is governed by a party who lost this badly in the most recent general election. And still they refuse to accept the condition that the party with the most votes gets the mandate...they know this will cause more political turbulence, but shamelessly and spinelessly they will cling to power by any means. You've had your turn (as unfair as it was) now listen to the people AND GET OUT!!!!!!!!

[rubl]

Democrats, Pheu Thai (%)

Management efficiency: 35.5 54.5

Economic performance: 35.4 64.6

Vision and policies: 41.0 59.0

Public acceptance: 39.1 60.9.........

It's time for these muppets to get out!! Unelected and unfit to govern. In the last election they were massacred 165: 233

Even though you Dem defenders claim the 'Westminster system' and 'fairly elected by fellow members of the house', the simple fact is; there is not another country in the world that is governed by a party who lost this badly in the most recent general election. And still they refuse to accept the condition that the party with the most votes gets the mandate...they know this will cause more political turbulence, but shamelessly and spinelessly they will cling to power by any means. You've had your turn (as unfair as it was) now listen to the people AND GET OUT!!!!!!!!

Nah, just time for another poll

BTW maybe a poll can be held on the HRW report which blames government AND protesters. Questions like

- should the UDD leaders including those on the PTP party list be prosecuted for instigating violence ?

- How democratic is 'Thaksin thinks, PTP does' ?

- How many times has the PTP asked commissions and courts to investigate Government actions delaying those actions (10 / 50 / more times)

- How many times did PTP MP's use their own money to go to Dubai to wish k. Thaksin well?

etc., etc.

Listen to the people? Why? K. Thaksin will tell us

[gregb]

In many ways I would actually like to see the Pheu Thai gain control for the next election. As long as there is someone to make sure the square faced demagogue stays truly away from the feeding trough, and the court keeps a tight reign on his machinations, I think a Pheu Thai led coalition government would be ideal. That way, people could finally see such disillusioned sentiments like Pheu Thai is more "democratic" are simply egregious misconceptions with no basis in reality.

In any case, the economy during the next government is almost guaranteed to be a disaster. Whichever side wins is going to be tarred and feathered. Much better that it be Thaksin supporters who have to bear the brunt of this onslaught.

We will see, but a Pheu Thai led government could be a blessing in disguise. Their certain failure to fix what ills Thailand could finally mark the end of Thaksin's reign of terror.

[timekeeper]

Democrats, Pheu Thai (%)

Management efficiency: 35.5 54.5

Economic performance: 35.4 64.6

Vision and policies: 41.0 59.0

Public acceptance: 39.1 60.9.........

It's time for these muppets to get out!! Unelected and unfit to govern. In the last election they were massacred 165: 233

Even though you Dem defenders claim the 'Westminster system' and 'fairly elected by fellow members of the house', the simple fact is; there is not another country in the world that is governed by a party who lost this badly in the most recent general election. And still they refuse to accept the condition that the party with the most votes gets the mandate...they know this will cause more political turbulence, but shamelessly and spinelessly they will cling to power by any means. You've had your turn (as unfair as it was) now listen to the people AND GET OUT!!!!!!!!

maewrocks

TV user name means Thaksin rocks

frequent poster in favour of Thaksin

frequent abuser of democrats

joined 1st may 2011

can anyone join the dots here............

[animatic]

In many ways I would actually like to see the Pheu Thai gain control for the next election. As long as there is someone to make sure the square faced demagogue stays truly away from the feeding trough, and the court keeps a tight reign on his machinations, I think a Pheu Thai led coalition government would be ideal. That way, people could finally see such disillusioned sentiments like Pheu Thai is more "democratic" are simply egregious misconceptions with no basis in reality.

In any case, the economy during the next government is almost guaranteed to be a disaster. Whichever side wins is going to be tarred and feathered. Much better that it be Thaksin supporters who have to bear the brunt of this onslaught.

We will see, but a Pheu Thai led government could be a blessing in disguise. Their certain failure to fix what ills Thailand could finally mark the end of Thaksin's reign of terror.

Sadly that won't work because they will so control the message getting back up country that all their malfeasances will go unnoticed, till trials are finished to convict them one at a time. Then the chants of biased judiciary will start up again.

[jayboy]

In many ways I would actually like to see the Pheu Thai gain control for the next election. As long as there is someone to make sure the square faced demagogue stays truly away from the feeding trough, and the court keeps a tight reign on his machinations, I think a Pheu Thai led coalition government would be ideal. That way, people could finally see such disillusioned sentiments like Pheu Thai is more "democratic" are simply egregious misconceptions with no basis in reality.

In any case, the economy during the next government is almost guaranteed to be a disaster. Whichever side wins is going to be tarred and feathered. Much better that it be Thaksin supporters who have to bear the brunt of this onslaught.

We will see, but a Pheu Thai led government could be a blessing in disguise. Their certain failure to fix what ills Thailand could finally mark the end of Thaksin's reign of terror.

Sadly that won't work because they will so control the message getting back up country that all their malfeasances will go unnoticed, till trials are finished to convict them one at a time. Then the chants of biased judiciary will start up again.

Not biased, directed.

[whybother]

Democrats, Pheu Thai (%)

Management efficiency: 35.5 54.5

Economic performance: 35.4 64.6

Vision and policies: 41.0 59.0

Public acceptance: 39.1 60.9.........

It's time for these muppets to get out!! Unelected and unfit to govern. In the last election they were massacred 165: 233

Even though you Dem defenders claim the 'Westminster system' and 'fairly elected by fellow members of the house', the simple fact is; there is not another country in the world that is governed by a party who lost this badly in the most recent general election. And still they refuse to accept the condition that the party with the most votes gets the mandate...they know this will cause more political turbulence, but shamelessly and spinelessly they will cling to power by any means. You've had your turn (as unfair as it was) now listen to the people AND GET OUT!!!!!!!!

"there is not another country in the world that is governed by a party who lost this badly"

In Australia, (which also uses the Westminster system), the party that is in power is often not the one that gets the most votes, usually by a considerable margin. In fact that particular party hasn't been the party with the most votes for quite a long time. But, they are the ones that can form a coalition to get into government when the other main party doesn't get a majority on it's own.

Democracy is about majority.

Red Democracy is about Reds.

Edited May 9, 2011 by whybother

[rubl]

maewrocks

TV user name means Thaksin rocks

frequent poster in favour of Thaksin

frequent abuser of democrats

joined 1st may 2011

can anyone join the dots here............

To join the dots is easy, to know in which direction requires thought. As k. Thaksin thinks and I only do, I have to ask him first

All are welcome at ThaiVisa ( )as long as they don't abuse the system and adhere to forum rules.

Let the verbal fight begin

Edited May 9, 2011 by rubl

[virtualtraveller]

And the Thai solution is this...

Peua Thai gains the largest number of seats in the House by a healthy margin, forms the next coalition govt, promises the earth but doesn't deliver, dishes out credit cards to the poor, runs up a huge deficit, has a completely dysfunctional cabinet run by an inexperienced puppet (Yingluck) on conference calls to Dubai all the time. Soon the corruption scandals emerge, the coalition partners milk it on the transport, interior and telecomms ministries, but the poor are happy that the 'happy days are back'.

Within 4 months govt tries to push through changes to constitution, coalition partners refuse to co-operate, lots of transfers to inactive posts, the PAD starts making a noise, more moves to reverse the charges against Thaksin and re-open the cases against him, Govt House is besieged, Yingluck has a nervous breakdown, meanwhile a case against Peua Thai from the EC is well underway for election fraud since their del facto boss is a banned politician.

Peau Thai eventually says '<deleted> it' and flies Thaksin in with lots of UDD supporters at the airport for security, citing that it's beyond their control, PAD and lots of general citizens take to the streets for Ratchaprasong II, another tourist season is ruined, by the end of the year Peau Thai is disbanded....

In a way, we have to go down this path to learn the hard way, let Peau Thai be the rightful winners of the election and let them show the country their true colours and let their supported see just what the consequences are. If you thought the last 2 years were traumatic, wait and see what's coming next!

[virtualtraveller]

By the way, even if Peua Thai win 40% of the House seats, the minor parties reserve the right NOT TO FORM a coalition government with them if they feel that the main objective of the administration is going to be 'Bring Thaksin back'. It will spell trouble for the government, the country and for certain party leaders. That's democracy for you, you really don't need a gun barrel to be persuaded.

[whybother]

By the way, even if Peua Thai win 40% of the House seats, the minor parties reserve the right NOT TO FORM a coalition government with them if they feel that the main objective of the administration is going to be 'Bring Thaksin back'. It will spell trouble for the government, the country and for certain party leaders. That's democracy for you, you really don't need a gun barrel to be persuaded.

But that's not how "Red Democracy" works. "Red Democracy" isn't about the majority. It's about the reds.

[otherstuff1957]

The survey says that PT is 2.3% ahead of the Dems.

What is the margin of error? Was the poll held among likely voters? How were the questions phrased? Were people actually asked if they would vote for candidate X or candidate Y? How large was the survey sample?

IMHO this poll leaves us no wiser than before. We will know which party will have the largest minority of votes after the election in July. Unfortunately, there will almost certainly be civil unrest regardless of who wins or loses.

[hammered]

And the Thai solution is this...

Peua Thai gains the largest number of seats in the House by a healthy margin, forms the next coalition govt, promises the earth but doesn't deliver, dishes out credit cards to the poor, runs up a huge deficit, has a completely dysfunctional cabinet run by an inexperienced puppet (Yingluck) on conference calls to Dubai all the time. Soon the corruption scandals emerge, the coalition partners milk it on the transport, interior and telecomms ministries, but the poor are happy that the 'happy days are back'.

Within 4 months govt tries to push through changes to constitution, coalition partners refuse to co-operate, lots of transfers to inactive posts, the PAD starts making a noise, more moves to reverse the charges against Thaksin and re-open the cases against him, Govt House is besieged, Yingluck has a nervous breakdown, meanwhile a case against Peua Thai from the EC is well underway for election fraud since their del facto boss is a banned politician.

Peau Thai eventually says '<deleted> it' and flies Thaksin in with lots of UDD supporters at the airport for security, citing that it's beyond their control, PAD and lots of general citizens take to the streets for Ratchaprasong II, another tourist season is ruined, by the end of the year Peau Thai is disbanded....

In a way, we have to go down this path to learn the hard way, let Peau Thai be the rightful winners of the election and let them show the country their true colours and let their supported see just what the consequences are. If you thought the last 2 years were traumatic, wait and see what's coming next!

the return Thaksin part of the PTP plan is to make sure that economically etc the country doesnt run as this applies pressure to the powerful ones to allow a return so their own business interests dont get crushed. The Samak government basically shut donw governing the country. It didnt work but this time it will be a harder crush. Witness the minimum wage, minimum graduate wage, rice price, tax cuts etc etc Even a PTP economist couldnt work out how to fund them but they sure will leave people wanting them and government pressured to bring them in. Then of course a mighty one will be needed to control government and send the people home. Nice plan and Im sure it is fun to anounce new handouts on a daily basis knowing you opponents cant compete. Be interesting to see if it comes off. Personally I think there will be chaos after the election unless an agreement has already been reached. When PTP gets two or twenty more seats than the Dems but not enough to form a government they will find it easy to get people on the streets to make sure they get their 300 baht a day minimum wage and a 15K starting salary etc. We live in interesting times and it is fun to watch.

Quite what the power struggle and its denouement means for the future economic stability of Thailand remains to be seen but when TRT cottoned on to populism in 2001 and then others copied the handout gravy train creating a runaway train "mine is bigger than yours" competition, it was always going to lead to a level of insanity that would leave all the wealthy regretting they had never tried to even out the massively skewed distribution of wealth, the massively skewed access to opportunity and education and the entrenched two tier system. Somewhere along the line a tax bill is going to have to be picked up and a pretty big one at that and that is in a country where many poor and rich expect to pay little to no tax. To date nobody, bar possibly Korn with his unused land and inheritence tax proposals (ignored by MPs who are all rich landowners), has even addressed this rather simple economic issue.

[Buchholz]

The survey says that PT is 2.3% ahead of the Dems.

What is the margin of error?

It's not provided with this specific poll, however, previous ABAC political polling is revealed by its Director:

By The Nation

Published on May 1, 2008

The Abac poll came under fire on Monday when Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej criticised the pollster, saying "it's lousy" after unfavourable results on the administration's performance were revealed. Director of Abac polling Noppadon Kannika talks to The Nation's Pravit Rojanaphruk about the role of polls in Thailand today.

How accurate are Abac poll results?

The margin of error is 3 to 5 per cent

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/05/01/politics/politics_30072005.php

If that's the case in this poll (and a review of articles on other ABAC polls reveals similar margin of errors), then the "2.3%" difference is negligible as either Party could be the preferred Party.

It would make the upcoming election dead even.

[SiriusBlack1]

Stirring martial music playing on all TV and radio stations to begin in three...two...one...

[animatic]

And the Thai solution is this...

Peua Thai gains the largest number of seats in the House by a healthy margin, forms the next coalition govt, promises the earth but doesn't deliver, dishes out credit cards to the poor, runs up a huge deficit, has a completely dysfunctional cabinet run by an inexperienced puppet (Yingluck) on conference calls to Dubai all the time. Soon the corruption scandals emerge, the coalition partners milk it on the transport, interior and telecomms ministries, but the poor are happy that the 'happy days are back'.

Within 4 months govt tries to push through changes to constitution, coalition partners refuse to co-operate, lots of transfers to inactive posts, the PAD starts making a noise, more moves to reverse the charges against Thaksin and re-open the cases against him, Govt House is besieged, Yingluck has a nervous breakdown, meanwhile a case against Peua Thai from the EC is well underway for election fraud since their del facto boss is a banned politician.

Peau Thai eventually says '<deleted> it' and flies Thaksin in with lots of UDD supporters at the airport for security, citing that it's beyond their control, PAD and lots of general citizens take to the streets for Ratchaprasong II, another tourist season is ruined, by the end of the year Peau Thai is disbanded....

In a way, we have to go down this path to learn the hard way, let Peau Thai be the rightful winners of the election and let them show the country their true colours and let their supported see just what the consequences are. If you thought the last 2 years were traumatic, wait and see what's coming next!

Wait... this is EXACTLY PPP....

So why wait again?

[tragickingdom]

Another pieces of rubbish from the Nation, the army's mouthpiece. A survey is conducted in a hand full of provinces again scoffing at the overwhelming majority of Thai people who are not asked anything. If PT gets 60% or more of the votes everybody will be surprised. In the eyes of the Nation Thailand is made up out of a maximum of 15 provinces today even less. Ignore the Nation there are real newspapers.

[aaacorp]

By the way, even if Peua Thai win 40% of the House seats, the minor parties reserve the right NOT TO FORM a coalition government with them if they feel that the main objective of the administration is going to be 'Bring Thaksin back'. It will spell trouble for the government, the country and for certain party leaders. That's democracy for you, you really don't need a gun barrel to be persuaded.

But that's not how "Red Democracy" works. "Red Democracy" isn't about the majority. It's about the reds.

yep...as it s also well known the yellow democracy is quite better...."appointed government" preferably by them

[jonnog]

Democrats, Pheu Thai (%)

Management efficiency: 35.5 54.5

Economic performance: 35.4 64.6

Vision and policies: 41.0 59.0

Public acceptance: 39.1 60.9.........

It's time for these muppets to get out!! Unelected and unfit to govern. In the last election they were massacred 165: 233

Even though you Dem defenders claim the 'Westminster system' and 'fairly elected by fellow members of the house', the simple fact is; there is not another country in the world that is governed by a party who lost this badly in the most recent general election. And still they refuse to accept the condition that the party with the most votes gets the mandate...they know this will cause more political turbulence, but shamelessly and spinelessly they will cling to power by any means. You've had your turn (as unfair as it was) now listen to the people AND GET OUT!!!!!!!!

Well said, Sir! I don't believe Thaksin and his cronies will be much better. But something very few of the (generally) myopic farangs on here seem to appreciate is that this government has absolutely no mandate to govern given the results of most recent general elections when people throughout the country have had their say.

[whybother]

Another pieces of rubbish from the Nation, the army's mouthpiece. A survey is conducted in a hand full of provinces again scoffing at the overwhelming majority of Thai people who are not asked anything. If PT gets 60% or more of the votes everybody will be surprised. In the eyes of the Nation Thailand is made up out of a maximum of 15 provinces today even less. Ignore the Nation there are real newspapers.

Actually, it's a report of an ABAC poll. It's probably reported in most of the Thai newspapers.

Unless you're saying that the army are running the universities now??

As with all polls, they ask a small representation of the people. From that they make guesses on what the whole population thinks. It's called statistics.

[whybother]

By the way, even if Peua Thai win 40% of the House seats, the minor parties reserve the right NOT TO FORM a coalition government with them if they feel that the main objective of the administration is going to be 'Bring Thaksin back'. It will spell trouble for the government, the country and for certain party leaders. That's democracy for you, you really don't need a gun barrel to be persuaded.

But that's not how "Red Democracy" works. "Red Democracy" isn't about the majority. It's about the reds.

yep...as it s also well known the yellow democracy is quite better...."appointed government" preferably by them

No. Yellow democracy is just as ridiculous as Red democracy.

[whybother]

Well said, Sir! I don't believe Thaksin and his cronies will be much better. But something very few of the (generally) myopic farangs on here seem to appreciate is that this government has absolutely no mandate to govern given the results of most recent general elections when people throughout the country have had their say.

The recent general election gave no party a mandate to govern. That's why the current and previous governments are made up of coalitions.

[kirk0233]

Democrats, Pheu Thai (%)

Management efficiency: 35.5 54.5

Economic performance: 35.4 64.6

Vision and policies: 41.0 59.0

Public acceptance: 39.1 60.9.........

the simple fact is; there is not another country in the world that is governed by a party who lost this badly in the most recent general election. And still they refuse to accept the condition that the party with the most votes gets the mandate...they know this will cause more political turbulence, but shamelessly and spinelessly they will cling to power by any means.

Reminds me of how I felt about nobel Laureate Al Gore winning the popular vote for president, but losing to George Bush with the collusion of the primarily Republican appointed Supreme Court and George's brother, the govenor of Florida, and his ballot box tricks.

[Buchholz]

yep...as it s also well known the yellow democracy is quite better...."appointed government" preferably by them

*sigh* re-posting required

If I recall correctly the yellow shirts were not looking for democracy. They wanted only 30% to be elected and 70% to be appointed.

True .

Not true. It was a discussion idea batted around and then discarded, literally, years ago.

But it's great sound bite for those that wish to dishonestly perpetrate the myth.

[virtualtraveller]

I believe that if 50% of the electorate are still fence sitters at this stage, it's probably to Peua Thai's advantage (knowing their vote getting tactics like I do).

Amazingly, a party in disarray with leadership squabbles, run remotely, with a number 1 objective to spring Thaksin, and constantly exposed as fraudulent still manages to edge ahead, only in Thailand.

[robertson468]

And the Thai solution is this...

Peua Thai gains the largest number of seats in the House by a healthy margin, forms the next coalition govt, promises the earth but doesn't deliver, dishes out credit cards to the poor, runs up a huge deficit, has a completely dysfunctional cabinet run by an inexperienced puppet (Yingluck) on conference calls to Dubai all the time. Soon the corruption scandals emerge, the coalition partners milk it on the transport, interior and telecomms ministries, but the poor are happy that the 'happy days are back'.

Within 4 months govt tries to push through changes to constitution, coalition partners refuse to co-operate, lots of transfers to inactive posts, the PAD starts making a noise, more moves to reverse the charges against Thaksin and re-open the cases against him, Govt House is besieged, Yingluck has a nervous breakdown, meanwhile a case against Peua Thai from the EC is well underway for election fraud since their del facto boss is a banned politician.

Peau Thai eventually says '<deleted> it' and flies Thaksin in with lots of UDD supporters at the airport for security, citing that it's beyond their control, PAD and lots of general citizens take to the streets for Ratchaprasong II, another tourist season is ruined, by the end of the year Peau Thai is disbanded....

In a way, we have to go down this path to learn the hard way, let Peau Thai be the rightful winners of the election and let them show the country their true colours and let their supported see just what the consequences are. If you thought the last 2 years were traumatic, wait and see what's coming next!

The very thought of K Thaksin returning to Thailand brings me out in a cold sweat. Not because I dislike the man, but because of what I perceive will ensue. If PT win, I think the military, elite and PAD will let PT get on with it, until they start positioning themselves to bring Thaksin back. I believe at that point there will be major demonstrations, backed by the elite and the military will stand aside and do nothing about it. Thailand will again grind to a stand still, the PT will overstep their authority and the smaller parties will join the Democrats again to form a majority. Either that, or there will be another coupe with a bunch of unelected Generals with little political experience trying to run the Country. Oh - have we been here before??

[citizen33]

Early days yet to extrapolate from the latest poll, but it wouldn't be a surprise if we saw the old pattern repeated. The provinces elect, Bangkok rejects. An awful lot on here are very comfortable with that, just as I suspect they would have been with what happened to the Weimar Republic.

[asiawatcher]

The poll was obviously conducted in Red Territory by buffaloes...

[howzat]

The DPM bust be slightly confused as he won't be in power when Thaksin returns. He will be a man without a mission.

And talk about the pot calling the kettle black. Suthep is hardly the shinnimg example of a non corruptible govenmentt minister. Any way he doesn't trust farangs so what do I know.but I do know Thaksins party are hardly like to through their big boss in the slammer.