Rubber Trees

[cobbler]

No doubt about it . Some of u blokes who bought up isaan area shure did make a good investment .

Even though things arent good price wise , after u sell most of your yang. What will you do with the money ? What will you invest the money into ? Another farming venture ? Think I can remember u saying before you had accommodation for rent as well Mike?

Veggies r great money but too labor intensive to do big scale . Some fruit trees r good . Think an assortment of 3 different crops is a good way to go . If price crashes in 1 you still have 2 to fall back on . Pissing rain here

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Edited August 5, 2014 by cobbler

[missjacqui]

No doubt about it . Some of u blokes who bought up isaan area shure did make a good investment .

Even though things arent good price wise , after u sell most of your yang. What will you do with the money ? What will you invest the money into ? Another farming venture ? Think I can remember u saying before you had accommodation for rent as well Mike?

Veggies r great money but too labor intensive to do big scale . Some fruit trees r good . Think an assortment of 3 different crops is a good way to go . If price crashes in 1 you still have 2 to fall back on . Pissing rain here

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Hi Cobbler,

Agreed about veggies and different crops.

Thanks for sharing,

J.

[missjacqui]

Pretty much all the trees up here in Northern Isaan are Rimm 600 or RIT 251. The numbers are correct, maybe i got the letters arse about tit (wrong way round). Do not believe all the stuff you here about these new strains. I personally do not believe you will get a good tree of any variety that can be tapped at 5 years old, and will have good output and a long life. 251 has a greater output/production than 600, but they grow less straight and are more susceptible to falling over/being snapped in half in high winds. 251 is a Malaysian variety ideally suited to the south, although there is a fair amount up here, and they do yield very well. Just fall over easy in storms.

Regarding land, i agree with Cobbler, and i would not plant rubber now. As previous posts, you're too late, missed the boat etc. Rubber land is only more expensive than sugar/tapioca, because it's either earning/will earn, or people can chop mature trees down for lumber/timber at a better price than Eucalyptus. 3-4 years ago, when prices were high, we had a bunch of Southerners come up here and they were buying ready to go plantations at 200k per rai. That is now over. 125-150k being the norm. I hear in Bung Khan, as much as 175-185k per rai. If you read previous posts, even if demand picks up, there is a hell of a lot of new rubber coming on tap in the next 3 years all over SE Asia and Africa. Oversupply is the key word.

Mike.

Hi Mike,

Agreed about "missing the boat".

Agreed also about lots of supply coming in.

So far at 125-150k per rai, you still make small profit on the land after planting and taking good care of it.

And you will earn revenue, waiting for "the new boat".

IMHO, I believe that you should do same as in the South, it means planting few different crops (they do it with palm oil for other reasons), so you share the risk.

But real business is rubber. You capitalize on your investment.

As you could see a few years ago, the rubber price did not go up because of supply and demand, it just went up because of....market inefficiencies. so it will happen again on up and down sides. Maybe it is the right time to buy on the down side, as I noted more and more sellers in the market. Just wait for the good time! Look at the Nasdaq or S&P between year 2000 and now.

If land price goes up (which I believe is the case here), all properties will go up.

You get a leverage if rubber price also goes up, not true for other short term crops.

I suggest to divide your property into few crops : rubber (long term => "blue chips"), sugar, cassava (current revenue => "bonds") and an other speculative one (high revenue or nothing => "small caps"). This analysis is purely financial and that is what we are talking about by guessing future assets commodities pricing (that is my background in Europe and also a few years ago I used to work for Thai banks).

Your opinion is welcome.

Hope that we can meet later. Can you text me your mobile number?

Jacquie

My mum always said "don't put all your eggs in one basket son" as i bought more land and put more rubber in. She was right. But what did i know, being a dirty filthy tattooed outlaw biker with a penchant for machining and machine tools. Farming - wassat?

However, i have 64 rai of rubber in total;

1st plot of 23 rai purchased for 9k per rai.

2nd plot of 5 rai purchased adjacent same year for 11k per rai.

3rd plot of 10 rai purchased around my house for 20k per rai the following year.

4th plot of 26 rai purchased the next year adjacent to the above land (ie 36 rai together around my house) from the same owner (!!) for 40k per rai. And at that time, people were saying "40k - are you mad?".

The 36 rai plot is now worth 100k a rai with nothing on it, the 28 rai plot probably 80-90k. Add 7-10 year old rubber into it and add 50-70%.

Unfortunately, i do not have further finances (proper wording for pi#ss broke) for investing in alternatives. The truck and house are paid for, the kids go to decent schools, and there is beer and food in the fridge. Oh, and i have enough money to pay my electric bills which means i get to play in my machine shop every day. Rainy season; 4-5 hours everyday on my lathe and mill and i'm as happy as a proverbial pig in the sh#it.

So yeah, if i sold up tomorrow inc the house, it was a damn good investment.

Regards,

Mike.

Good morning Mike,

Congratulations for the great investment. You were at the right time to purchase those!

Do you think that land price has still a way to go up?

What could be the target price for an empty property considering :

- located 5 km from a main city

- agro land (good soil)

- electricity

- chanote

- 30 rai plot

- 1kilo from main road with "thanon deng" to access the property

Thanks for sharing your opinion,

Cheers, J.

[missjacqui]

Dear all,

This email is quite important, and I really hope to receive as many advises as you can.

Let's go, we will plant by next week, 19 rai of specie251 at Nongbualumphu.

Price offered is 20THB per tree.

I asked for some labour from the shop who re selling those. They will bring some of their staff to plant.

What should be the main point to check in order not to be cheated when they plants them.

- way to plant => how to check the good planting?

- quality of the tree => how to check if they give us healthy and nice trees ?

- other?

Any (even small advise) is important.

Rgds,

J.

[thaiguzzi]

# Land prices vary so much , same old story - location, location.

# Chanot land running past a tarmac road with electricity poles would be the one. Can be sub divided and sold as separate plots easy.

# Way to plant - NO SMALLER SPACING than 7 x 3m minimum.

# As above, it's all in previous posts, probably near the beginning of this thread. We planted all our trees ourselves.

# Be there for outsourced planting. If they are on, say 5 baht set rate per tree, they may hurry the job, common one was to plant without removing the plastic sheath. Get a guarantee for free replacements planted in the first 6 months, even if it costs a couple of baht more.

Mike.

[thaiguzzi]

J,

forgot to add, i've read and heard this year's rainy season will finish early and we are in an El Nino period. If so, beginning of August is a bit late for planting a whole plantation. We always planted as soon as decent rains came, generally May, never later than June.

[missjacqui]

# Land prices vary so much , same old story - location, location.

# Chanot land running past a tarmac road with electricity poles would be the one. Can be sub divided and sold as separate plots easy.

# Way to plant - NO SMALLER SPACING than 7 x 3m minimum.

# As above, it's all in previous posts, probably near the beginning of this thread. We planted all our trees ourselves.

# Be there for outsourced planting. If they are on, say 5 baht set rate per tree, they may hurry the job, common one was to plant without removing the plastic sheath. Get a guarantee for free replacements planted in the first 6 months, even if it costs a couple of baht more.

Mike.

Hi Mike,

Your fast support is really appreciated on this one.

Thanks a lot.

- Our property is located 1 km from the main road. So I will ask the electricity authority to bring the electricity poles up to us.

- I will ask for this free replacements guarantee.

- Plastic sheath should be taking out, right?

Any other advise to be sure not to be cheated?

- How big should be the tree => I heard the word ("ki tchat")

- How to make sure trees are not too old arriving from the nursery?

- How to make sure trees are healthy?

Rgds,

J.

[missjacqui]

J,

forgot to add, i've read and heard this year's rainy season will finish early and we are in an El Nino period. If so, beginning of August is a bit late for planting a whole plantation. We always planted as soon as decent rains came, generally May, never later than June.

Noted with thanks.

However, a water irrigation system will be brought within 10 days also.

Will it help if we plant now?

J.

[thaiguzzi]

No doubt about it . Some of u blokes who bought up isaan area shure did make a good investment .

Even though things arent good price wise , after u sell most of your yang. What will you do with the money ? What will you invest the money into ? Another farming venture ? Think I can remember u saying before you had accommodation for rent as well Mike?

Veggies r great money but too labor intensive to do big scale . Some fruit trees r good . Think an assortment of 3 different crops is a good way to go . If price crashes in 1 you still have 2 to fall back on . Pissing rain here

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No accommodation for rent, unfortunately Cobbler. What would i do if i sold up? Good question. Much as i like farming, my own land etc etc, and think foodstuffs is the way forward, ie fruit and veggies, i would probably get out of it and have nothing to do with it. With £200k plus in the bank, it would be sensible to invest it all back in the UK on rented out properties. I have a couple of female cousins i get on well with, who live "oop" north, ie properties are much cheaper than where i used to live down "sarf", but rental income is not much different. They could run the properties as agents for a percentage.

Maybe.

[thaiguzzi]

# Plant NOW. No, yesterday !

# Most saplings will be fine. Originally we liked taller ones. By the end of planting over 6000 (inc replacements) trees over 3 years we preferred shorter ones.

# Yeah, no plastic in the hole !! Otherwise 2-3 weeks later you've got a dead tree!

[cobbler]

Yes I agree with that mike , about veg and fruit cropping . Maybe if u sell now its good timing . Get great mark up on your investment and can take your money back to uk tax free. Difficult decission .

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[cobbler]

Id agree with mike about planting now . If you arent prepared to water every tree right through till next wet season , expect a lot of dead trees. The person who sold u the trees will be happy . He knows youll b back to buy more trees next year

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[Mosha]

Dear all,

This email is quite important, and I really hope to receive as many advises as you can.

Let's go, we will plant by next week, 19 rai of specie251 at Nongbualumphu.

Price offered is 20THB per tree.

I asked for some labour from the shop who re selling those. They will bring some of their staff to plant.

What should be the main point to check in order not to be cheated when they plants them.

- way to plant => how to check the good planting?

- quality of the tree => how to check if they give us healthy and nice trees ?

- other?

Any (even small advise) is important.

Rgds,

J.

Might be worth planting 600s in the exposed edges of the land. About 2 rows deep

[thaiguzzi]

# Sold @ auction, Udon province yesterday, cup @ 29.00 baht per kg. Lowest price ever.

# 2 plots tapped over a one MONTH period (not the normal fortnight) netted a total of a ridiculous 8 and 9 tappings. IN A <deleted>#cking MONTH !

# Article in the BP about govnt intervention and help cutting down your rubber trees and re-planting with palm, 21k per rai and you keep the lumber for re-sale. If lumber prices are 30-40k and the govnt give me 21k on top per rai, would be tempted on the plot with no water/electric access (but my biggest, bestest trees), and sell it for 90k per rai with nothing on it. Easier to sell something for 28 x 90 than 28 x 165.

Mike.

[thaiguzzi]

J, and any other prospective new rubber people; i would seriously think about avoiding any new ventures in this game. Check out my favourite rubber website; Global Rubber Markets. For us old timers, it's too late, we are already stuck in it with our mature trees.

[cobbler]

B4 , gov want introduce yang to issaan . Next dipshit idea , palm oil omg . Again think about the long dry season there . No water going in , no oil coming out .

Mike , I wouldnt advise doing palm oil up there . Have many other fruit u can grow .

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[Dakling]

Palm oil would likely be ok in Issan provided you have an unlimited water supply (river access), otherwise I don't think I would try it. We have 34 rai, 24 in rubber and another 10 we rent out to folks who want to do Cassava. The rental makes us almost no money but it keeps the land from reverting to jungle while I try to think of what to do with it. Our rubber trees are only 3 years old but I think we will stick with them. I have one of the two 12 rai plots with 3 & 4 year old trees (mostly 600's with some 3001's as replants), for sale at 100k/rai, no offers yet. We bought our land for an average price of 20k/rai around 4 years ago and I figure we have spent about 200k on trees, fertilizer, labour, fencing, etc. so I can't see us loosing money but we have put allot of work in for a pretty tiny profit. In retrospect I likely could have found better ways to invest my money but who knows maybe in 3-4 years when we start production prices may have recovered.

I am thinking now what I would like to do is have a small integrated operation on 4 or 5 rai. next to the house with a few hundred rubber trees, a modest fish pond or two, a veggie patch with some fruit trees and some ducks and/or chickens. Maybe even put in a few mushroom huts under the trees once the canopy is established. Doing it that way (staying small) we could sell our produce, fish and foul at the gate and at the local markets and cut out the middle men. You would never get rich doing this but you would likely bring in 10 or 20 k baht per month and you would have your own free supply of veg, fish, eggs, mushrooms, chicken and ducks. As long as you keep stocking rates low and use the land under the canopy for secondary products and use the water from the fish as a fertilizer supplement I think you could keep the costs down to a minimum. I think you could manage the entire thing in under 4 hours a day including tapping 200 trees/day yourself.

I think the 2 biggest issues to set up something like this would be that you would need lots of water for the fish ponds and you would be really tied to the farm no more trips to the mountains or the coast on holiday.

[cobbler]

Yes darkling . Kings project say 2% of it should be damed , so u have water for dry season.

Pak wan is a good shade plant , grows like a weed .

Yes it does tie u to the farm . Im thinking . Just go 2 or 3 types of fruit . Then some beens for regular cash flow . Not too many ducks or chooks if any because they tie you to the farm however free eggs are good

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[kolohe]

Here are some 3001 that are about 25-26 months old. They are about 4-5 meters high. Not a very good picture but hope you can make it out OK.

Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk

[Dakling]

Yes darkling . Kings project say 2% of it should be damed , so u have water for dry season.

Pak wan is a good shade plant , grows like a weed .

Yes it does tie u to the farm . Im thinking . Just go 2 or 3 types of fruit . Then some beens for regular cash flow . Not too many ducks or chooks if any because they tie you to the farm however free eggs are good

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I agree on the birds,

I wouldn't want too many. I like ducks because if you don't have too many they can pretty much take care of themselves. I see lots of people in our area who keep ducks or chickens under their trees. They just use that cheep blue netting stuff to keep them from running away. The fruit trees would just be a side thing but since I am thinking about my own consumption I would rather go with only 2 or two trees but maybe have 4 or 5 varieties. Maybe a little patch of dragon fruit and papaya. As long as you are intentionally keeping everything low cost and small scale you really can't lose anything other than your time.

[thaiguzzi]

B4 , gov want introduce yang to issaan . Next dipshit idea , palm oil omg . Again think about the long dry season there . No water going in , no oil coming out .

Mike , I wouldnt advise doing palm oil up there . Have many other fruit u can grow .

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Never said i'd do Palm.

Yeah, Govnt ideas are great are'nt they, few years ago, we want to stick 800,000 new rai of rubber in the ground, 500,000 of which will be in Isaan. Remember Thaksin rubber saplings which were'nt? Now its take out 350,000 rai of rubber and replace with palm. Really?

Edited August 7, 2014 by thaiguzzi

[cobbler]

Yes that gov had a plan . Called it issaan C keow , green issaan . Government funded . In english it means " we will take percentage of every rubber tree we pay for , share that money with our mates" make millions . Put em in the same boat as marcos and estrada . I asked my wife " why do farmers keep voting for them when they do nothing but provide bad plans that dont work long term ? " She said " issaan farmers , live in hope , coz no choice "

Poor bastards .

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Edited August 7, 2014 by cobbler

[deepcell]

Nice video that cover all basics of rubber tree plantation ->

[missjacqui]

B4 , gov want introduce yang to issaan . Next dipshit idea , palm oil omg . Again think about the long dry season there . No water going in , no oil coming out .

Mike , I wouldnt advise doing palm oil up there . Have many other fruit u can grow .

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Never said i'd do Palm.

Yeah, Govnt ideas are great are'nt they, few years ago, we want to stick 800,000 new rai of rubber in the ground, 500,000 of which will be in Isaan. Remember Thaksin rubber saplings which were'nt? Now its take out 350,000 rai of rubber and replace with palm. Really?

Hi Cobbler

Hi Mike,

I think purpose of that measure is to diversify exports.

They are fully aware that North-East soil can not be planted with palm oil.

I believe that they target Southern people and asking them to switch their crops.

The new supply coming from "Issan" (anyway people from North East can not benefit from government measure because North East crops are too young to be sold as trees).

So new supply from "Issan" will cover less supply from the South.

It will allow Thailand to keep their leadership without increasing the worldmarket supply.

Just an opinion.

J

[missjacqui]

Nice video that cover all basics of rubber tree plantation ->

Big thanks Deepcell!

Any suggestion (even if small) to pay attention with is welcome

J.

[missjacqui]

Here are some 3001 that are about 25-26 months old. They are about 4-5 meters high. Not a very good picture but hope you can make it out OK.

Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk

Hi Kolohe,

Comparing to other species, it looks normal growth, isn t it?

J.

[missjacqui]

Palm oil would likely be ok in Issan provided you have an unlimited water supply (river access), otherwise I don't think I would try it. We have 34 rai, 24 in rubber and another 10 we rent out to folks who want to do Cassava. The rental makes us almost no money but it keeps the land from reverting to jungle while I try to think of what to do with it. Our rubber trees are only 3 years old but I think we will stick with them. I have one of the two 12 rai plots with 3 & 4 year old trees (mostly 600's with some 3001's as replants), for sale at 100k/rai, no offers yet. We bought our land for an average price of 20k/rai around 4 years ago and I figure we have spent about 200k on trees, fertilizer, labour, fencing, etc. so I can't see us loosing money but we have put allot of work in for a pretty tiny profit. In retrospect I likely could have found better ways to invest my money but who knows maybe in 3-4 years when we start production prices may have recovered.

I am thinking now what I would like to do is have a small integrated operation on 4 or 5 rai. next to the house with a few hundred rubber trees, a modest fish pond or two, a veggie patch with some fruit trees and some ducks and/or chickens. Maybe even put in a few mushroom huts under the trees once the canopy is established. Doing it that way (staying small) we could sell our produce, fish and foul at the gate and at the local markets and cut out the middle men. You would never get rich doing this but you would likely bring in 10 or 20 k baht per month and you would have your own free supply of veg, fish, eggs, mushrooms, chicken and ducks. As long as you keep stocking rates low and use the land under the canopy for secondary products and use the water from the fish as a fertilizer supplement I think you could keep the costs down to a minimum. I think you could manage the entire thing in under 4 hours a day including tapping 200 trees/day yourself.

I think the 2 biggest issues to set up something like this would be that you would need lots of water for the fish ponds and you would be really tied to the farm no more trips to the mountains or the coast on holiday.

Dakling,

Your opinion makes sense.

"I have one of the two 12 rai plots with 3 & 4 year old trees (mostly 600's with some 3001's as replants"

Would you mind to post some pictures from your 3&4 years old trees, so it would be possible to compare the 3001specie and 600specie.

What is your view on it as you can see it in real.

Are they growing the same?

Thank you,

J.

[thaiguzzi]

J;

# Palm can be grown well in Isaan. You just need plenty of water in the dry season to irrigate. Lots of Palm near the Mekong.

# Plenty of 12-20 plus year old plantations in the N and NE of Isaan, especially along the Mekong. Check out Bung Khan province.

[missjacqui]

J;

# Palm can be grown well in Isaan. You just need plenty of water in the dry season to irrigate. Lots of Palm near the Mekong.

# Plenty of 12-20 plus year old plantations in the N and NE of Isaan, especially along the Mekong. Check out Bung Khan province.

You re right.

Well noted.

So what would do you think will be the consequences of such measures?

[Dakling]

Your opinion makes sense.

"I have one of the two 12 rai plots with 3 & 4 year old trees (mostly 600's with some 3001's as replants"

Would you mind to post some pictures from your 3&4 years old trees, so it would be possible to compare the 3001specie and 600specie.

What is your view on it as you can see it in real.

Are they growing the same?

Thank you,

J.

Jacqui

I don't have any pictures handy to post but I don't think they would answer your questions anyhow. All of our 3 & 4 year old trees are RIM600s, the 3001 replants are all only 3 months to 1yr old. The handful of 3001 trees we planted a year ago where very small as we had some difficulty finding a good supplier. This year we put in about 200 of new 3001 trees and they were much larger when we bought them than the ones from last year. They are currently about the same size (this years and last years). You cant really compare them because of the age difference. Most of our 3001 trees are under 1m and our 600s are generally 5m or taller.

One issue we had this year is that our trees really started putting out their canopy this year and my aggressive pruning has resulted in trees that are top heavy for their girth. They seem to like to be bent over most of the time. I am trying to stay on-top of this by pulling them back vertical as often as I can but it is allot of work and only seems to last until the next big wind. My hope is that this will rectify itself over the next year or two as the trees girth increases. I think I might have been a bit too diligent on the 3m pruning as many of the trees have no branches for the first 4 or 5 m. If i were to do it again I would let trees branch out a bit lower (maybe 2.5 or 2.7 m minimum).

In my experience, the new 3001 trees are bit higher maintenance than the 600s were in their first year. The 2 main reasons for that is that they seem to throw out more buds and the buds grow out quickly so you have to stay on them, the second reason is that the graft is more on the side of the root stock so you have to be try promote the upper graft to go vertical. I am not sure if the vertical thing is really that big of an issue as they will eventually try to get vertical I suppose but I worry a bit about the graft joint and long term trunk development around the graft. Part of the reason for the higher budding rate is that we are more diligent in caring for the replants than we were with the initial planting. It is allot easier to take care of 200 young trees than it is to look after 2,000+. The 3001's are getting fertilized on a more regular schedule (4 times/year) and they get watered anytime we go more than 2 weeks without rain.

I think regarding the 3001's you just have to trust the literature. They are supposed to produce 1-2 years earlier and are supposed to yield 50% to 100% more rubber and also have much more useful timber at end of life. I know the life of production is a bit shorter but the other benefits outweigh this. If I could have sourced 3001's when I initially planted I would have gone with them exclusively. The cost of the trees is so small when you consider how much your total outlay is going to be it is a no brainier to buy the best trees you can find. Your annual fertilizer budget will likely be double the difference in the cost of the trees.