Rubber Trees

[thaiguzzi]

It seems that every day I see more rubber tree plantations, that I didn't know were there. I guess the trees getting to the stage that from a distance you can tell their rubber. Also I understand that the Chinese have planted large amount of trees in Cambodia. I would say that in the next 10 to 20 years there is not much chance of the price getting much over ฿70 a kilogram, and I think that's being pretty optimistic. I think I would investigate selling the trees as lumber. I heard that virgin rubber trees sell at a premium for lumber. Now would be the time to do it, before everyone starts to do it and the lumber price drops, if it hasn't already.

Globally, some 2.2M acres came on line this year. approx 66 M trees

Bejeezus wept, if that is true. More coming on line in the next 3-4 years up here in Isaan too.

Back to a previous question; if i had 2-3 year old trees, i would 100% cut 'em down, and do something else.

[fezzy]

Sold today damp kee yang 20 bt.

oh my budda . What's going on no beer money

Edited September 23, 2014 by fezzy

[Mosha]

Sold today damp kee yang 20 bt.

oh my budda . What's going on no beer money

We sold at at 22.. At least we are getting better weather now.

[cobbler]

Any trees iv ever seen not fertilized but still tapped give farkall rubber . Bad idea , dont even think it .

[Dakling]

I was doing a bit of reading on synthetic rubber production because I couldn't figure how synthetic rubber is still economic at these prices when oil costs have only gone down by about 10% while rubber prices have gone down 50%. My thinking was that even with increased natural rubber production coming online that the low rubber prices could not last for too long as people would shift from synthetic to natural rubber if there was a significant cost difference. Unfortunately my thinking was flawed because synthetic rubber costs don't follow oil costs, they follow natural gas costs (or ethanol when natural gas spikes).

I don't really understand the chemistry but apparently they can use off-gasses from natural gas production and even ethanol can be used to extract butadiene (the primary souse material for synthetic rubber production). This means that with natural gas at very low prices in the US synthetic rubber feed stock prices are low allowing synthetic rubber producers to survive the low prices. Now with very high shale oil production in the united states the associated natural gas production has also risen dramatically and since natural gas is difficult to export without significant infrastructure, natural gas is currently a surplus product with limited storage capacity. Current natural gas well head prices are not much higher than they were in the 1980's and in real terms are much cheaper if you adjust for inflation. US shale production is expected to remain high until at least 2025 so this suggests natural gas prices, (and synthetic rubber production costs) will remain low until that time. I have only looked at the US but the US is a significant synthetic rubber producer so I think my reasoning is valid though possibly overly pessimistic as other synthetic rubber producers may see higher natural gas prices than the US.

I am no expert on economics or chemistry but what this all means to me is that the only way we will see prices going up is if the developing world economies (China, India, etc.), start booming again and consumption goes up higher than supply. With the increase in natural production capacity being developed in many countries and the long term expected low cost of natural gas it is going to take one hell of an economic boom to consume all this supply and also to exhaust high inventories throughout the rubber world. I am not holding my breath.

[thaiguzzi]

Good informative post and thanx for sharing, and making me further depressed about the future of rubber farming...

[thaiguzzi]

24.07 baht per kg yesterday @ auction, cup rubber, Udon province.

[imokg2g]

Sold kee yang 22.70 baht per kilo yesterday.

Bueng Kan province.

[cobbler]

Shit iwas so very wrong when I said yang would improve after ying luk was kicked out . Everything else is improving farming wise but not yang . Oops

[thaiguzzi]

YL or anybody else in this country has got nothing to do with the current sh#itty prices.

[Issangeorge]

YL or anybody else in this country has got nothing to do with the current sh#itty prices.

That's not completely true, Newin is still in the country, and it was him along with YL's brother, that promoted the planting of rubber trees in the North East, although that extra production isn't the only reason latex prices are down, it is one of the reasons.

[thaiguzzi]

The majority of that has not come on tap yet. Also the vast majority of these new plantations are small, and owned by people with no previous experience of rubber tree maintenance or tapping. Hence, poor tapping procedures, often 3/1 on a 5 -6 year old tree that looks like a 3-4 year old tree, incorrect fertilizer and incorrect amounts, or none at all. After one year of tapping, the tree looks sh#it, bark is appalling, canopy is no where, where it should be, output is well down, the price has collapsed, and they say "what was all this boll#ox we heard where everyone with a rubber plot of 10 rai will get rich quickly". I hope they chop 'em all down.

Most of our neighbours with similar aged trees can't believe the output we get, thinking it's some magic Felang foumula we paint on the bark. No, it's just doing everything by the book, which is available to all from Rubber Institutes, but they can't be arsed to read or learn, being patient, and spending serious time and money on a project that recquires 7 years before any payback.

[thaiguzzi]

AND NOT BEING GREEDY...

[bannork]

Got a query for the experts, how much fertilizer per time should I be using on trees that are 2 years old compared to 4 years? Is 500 grammes per tree right for 4 year old trees? Thanking anyone in advance.

[Marcthomas]

Hi, I have a rubber farm up in Loei, last year we had a fire, burned out 10 rai of my 4 year old trees, none have grown back!! Thinking of planting bananas on the 10 rai, anybody know on a possible return? Thanks

[Mosha]

Every time I read of an "expert" spouting on about the drought. All I get is even heavier rain fall. Will the please keep their gobs shut?

[thaiguzzi]

Got a query for the experts, how much fertilizer per time should I be using on trees that are 2 years old compared to 4 years? Is 500 grammes per tree right for 4 year old trees? Thanking anyone in advance.

Sounds about right, maybe a tad much. Try 1/2 a 50kg bag per rai. ie 20 rai = 10 bags. 2 holes dug per tree, holes where the canopy finishes. Holes covered up when finished. Make sure soil is still moist, and wish for at least one day of a good rain soaking in the following days.

Mike.

[bannork]

Got a query for the experts, how much fertilizer per time should I be using on trees that are 2 years old compared to 4 years? Is 500 grammes per tree right for 4 year old trees? Thanking anyone in advance.

Sounds about right, maybe a tad much. Try 1/2 a 50kg bag per rai. ie 20 rai = 10 bags. 2 holes dug per tree, holes where the canopy finishes. Holes covered up when finished. Make sure soil is still moist, and wish for at least one day of a good rain soaking in the following days.

Mike.

Thanks for that Mike.

[thaiguzzi]

Hi, I have a rubber farm up in Loei, last year we had a fire, burned out 10 rai of my 4 year old trees, none have grown back!! Thinking of planting bananas on the 10 rai, anybody know on a possible return? Thanks

Not a lot. I never see bananas sell well in the back of pick ups at open markets. They are a bit like tomatoes and papaya over here. They just grow wild very easily. We give our bananas away to friends and family. The missus chucks whats left of a somtam salad away, a month later there's a new tomato plant there from the seeds. Every month there's a new papaya tree popping up somewhere in the garden. Things are ridiculous.

[Marcthomas]

Yes. Thanks, we're looking into avocardo now, trying to keep it a secret before the whole village does the same!! Lol

[cobbler]

Yes. Thanks, we're looking into avocardo now, trying to keep it a secret before the whole village does the same!! Lol

When we planted 100 or more avocados a couple of years ago . We told everybody they were some native thine that grows in the jungle . I foget the name now as nobody cares now . Think of some bullshit fruit that doesnt even come from that area , call it that .

Cheers Cobbler

[Marcthomas]

Sounds like a great idea! Can I ask how your own trees are? Did you plant from seed? Any nasty things I should know about, thanks

[Marcthomas]

Sounds like a great idea! Can I ask how your own trees are? Did you plant from seed? Any nasty things I should know about, thanks

[utr]

Top Rubber Trade Groups Pledge to Boost Prices From 2009 Low

"bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-13/top-rubber-trade-groups-pledge-to-increase-prices-from-2009-low"

an interesting read with a little hope on the horizon?

Edited October 13, 2014 by utr

[Marcthomas]

http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/new-measure-introduced-boost-rubber-consumption/

More news

[thaiguzzi]

24.36 baht per kg for cup at auction yesterday, Udon province. This is the 6th consecutive fortnightly sale where the price is 24 something baht. Looks like a winning bidder knows that 23 something bid won't win the auction.

[imokg2g]

Sold kee yang 23.30 baht per kilo Thursday.

Bueng Kan province.

I wish we were getting 24s as we have had excellent output over the last two week (got to love that cold weather) . We averaged approximately 51kg per rai. Sustain this rate of output, and give me 45 baht a kilo. I would be a happy man.

[thoongfoned]

Sold kee yang 23.30 baht per kilo Thursday.

Bueng Kan province.

I wish we were getting 24s as we have had excellent output over the last two week (got to love that cold weather) . We averaged approximately 51kg per rai. Sustain this rate of output, and give me 45 baht a kilo. I would be a happy man.

this time last year you would have been getting 30's baht a kilo and thinking why so low, now wanting the 24's.......... what ya think this time next year the price will be at? I would say a bit lower then at present.

the "cold" weather sure does make those trees produce better, gotta be happy with your trees output..........

[imokg2g]

To be quite honest, if prices continued to drop at the same rate they have been, it is unlikely that I would have anybody willing to tap my trees next year. Currently I have had to renegotiated with my workers to a 50:50 split (previously 60:40). However, now they are responsible for the chemicals.

If prices rise I would insist on reverting back to a 60:40 split. That might be a tough conversation to have though... On that note, has anybody else "bit the bullet" and renegotiated the split with their workers (50:50 split or similar)?

Cheers,

J

[Dakling]

If you got good workers and they are splitting the chemicals with you I think 50:50 is not so bad. Better to have a happy reliable workforce even if it costs a bit more. I wouldn't risk loosing them if they balk at going back to 40% in future. Granted if the price goes back up to 50/kilo or something they would likely accept 40% no problem (but I wouldn't hold my breath).

On the other hand if they aren't reliable then it doesn't really matter.