Can You Predict An Earthquake?

[folium]

Yesterday saw 2 well-publicised predictions made for earthquakes.

First, Wang Chao-hung, known as "Teacher Wang," wrote on his blog last month that based on his studies of the Chinese classic I Ching, also known as the Book of Changes, a magnitude 14 earthquake would hit Taiwan on May 11 at 10:42.37am.

Luckily this did not happen as had there been a magnitude 14 quake anywhere we would all have known about it (the strongest ever recorded was a 9.5 magnitude off Chile in 1960).

Secondly, a deceased Italian seismologist Raffaele Bendandi predicted in 1915 that a huge earthquake would strike Rome on May 11, 2011 (if he actually did seems open to question). This has also proved to be inaccurate, but didn't stop some 20% of the city's population taking the day off.

As many TV people experienced our little tremor a few weeks ago in Chiang Mai and knowing that many of us like to share our opinions and expertise, I thought a little competition might be in order, to see if any of us can do better than Teacher Wang or Raffaele.

The rules are very simple.

Before 12 noon Friday 13 May you need to post your prediction on this thread.

Your prediction has to be a 200km radius of a given location (that's a town, city or even village for less populated parts of the world) Therefore, saying California or Japan will not count.

The earthquake has to be magnitude 5.0 or greater.

If your prediction comes true and results in major devastation and casualties the game will be cancelled and we will all sit back in awe and amazement.

All locations and magnitudes will be based on the USGS website data.

A summary of worldwide quake activity can be found at:

http://earthquake.us...es/recenteqsww/

This is not meant to be an exercise in poor taste merely an opportunity to win public acclaim, and recognition of your powers of prediction(I will even produce a smart certificate for the winnner) . Rather like in Bruce Almighty; Have You Got The Power?!

[lovelomsak]

Since there willnot be any quakesover 5.0 magnitude for a while, after your may 13 deadline. Do you want the first one after may 13 or the biggest one with in a year or what specifically do you want. Sorry I thought you were talking Thailand only.

Edited May 12, 2011 by lovelomsak

[folium]

Whoops

Left out one vital part of the competition. The prediction will be for a 24 hour period from noon (Thai time) Friday 13 May and can be for anywhere in the world.

Sorry.

[folium]

Hi Mods

Can you do me a favour and drop the missing rule,

The prediction will be for a 24 hour period from noon (Thai time) Friday 13 May and can be for anywhere in the world.

into the original topic post. Is there no way I can edit a topic myself?

Thanks

[isanbirder]

The Erechtheids had the power of predicting earthquakes, but the family seems to have died out about 2,600 years ago.

The only way of predicting earthquakes is by observing birds, dogs, and other creatures... the trouble is, they don't give you much warning.

What you are asking people to do is to guess. which is not the same thing. The gentleman who predicted a Force 14 earthquake is lucky it didn't happen... that would be almost the end of the world.

[folium]

Almost all predictions are intelligent guesses at best (with varying levels if intelligence!)

[folium]

Come on boys where's your spirit of adventure?

My punt for a magnitude 5.0+ earthquake between noon 13 May and noon 14 May is within a 200km radius of Ternate in the Moluccas, Indonesia.

What do you reckon?

[BarnicaleBob]

Here is my guess: On May 21, there is no city town or anything else in the area of the quake, the closest location to it will be Amochitka Island which only about the size of a large city (part of the Aleutian Island Chain) in the North Pacific.

[folium]

Yo Barnicale Bob! Are you happy to keep your selection but have the timing from noon 13- noon 14 May, the extra rule omitted from my OP?

[BarnicaleBob]

Here is my guess: On May 21, there is no city town or anything else in the area of the quake, the closest location to it will be Amochitka Island which only about the size of a large city (part of the Aleutian Island Chain) in the North Pacific.

But that was the only next quake over 5.0 that I see. Just remember May 21st.

[Pillion]

Prediction:

There will be a horrendous 6.1 quake tomorrow morning (12th May) at around 7am after my Weetabix and coffee, possible tsunami to follow soon after.

Epicentre: I have to be within a few hundred km so I'll go for... my bathroom.

[zzaa09]

Come on boys where's your spirit of adventure?

My punt for a magnitude 5.0+ earthquake between noon 13 May and noon 14 May is within a 200km radius of Ternate in the Moluccas, Indonesia.

What do you reckon?

That's an easy and safe locale to predict earth movement......as it might be the most continuously active areas on the earth. 9-and-a-half times out of 10.

[DP25]

Secondly, a deceased Italian seismologist Raffaele Bendandi predicted in 1915 that a huge earthquake would strike Rome on May 11, 2011 (if he actually did seems open to question). This has also proved to be inaccurate, but didn't stop some 20% of the city's population taking the day off.

A bit inaccurate, there was a quake that day in Spain that killed 10 people

[folium]

Secondly, a deceased Italian seismologist Raffaele Bendandi predicted in 1915 that a huge earthquake would strike Rome on May 11, 2011 (if he actually did seems open to question). This has also proved to be inaccurate, but didn't stop some 20% of the city's population taking the day off.

A bit inaccurate, there was a quake that day in Spain that killed 10 people

Sorry but 1239kms is well out and the earthquake in Spain was not the "monster" supposed to destroy a city the size of Rome. A 5.1 quake is relatively small, the people in Lorca were very unlucky to be the victims of a very shallow, direct hit similar to the one that caused such damage in Christchurch NZ.

There are thousands of earthquakes every day (luckily the vast majority are of little consequence) but the problem with prediction is that no one yet can say exactly where, when or at what magnitude the quake will be. Hence this silly competition, give it a go and see if you can predict a quake down to a 200km radius.

[folium]

Come on boys where's your spirit of adventure?

My punt for a magnitude 5.0+ earthquake between noon 13 May and noon 14 May is within a 200km radius of Ternate in the Moluccas, Indonesia.

What do you reckon?

That's an easy and safe locale to predict earth movement......as it might be the most continuously active areas on the earth. 9-and-a-half times out of 10.

Not true by a long score. In the short term the area east of Sendai, Japan remains the most active area in the world. Over a longer time scale Sumatra, Kamchatka, the Aleutians, Tonga and Fiji are probably the global hot spots for seismic activity. The reason I chose Ternate is that it has been relatively active in the last week and the quakes seem to be moving along the fault line in an easterly direction and there could well be another magnitude 5+ between noon 13 May and noon 14 May if the pattern is maintained.

[Semper]

Secondly, a deceased Italian seismologist Raffaele Bendandi predicted in 1915 that a huge earthquake would strike Rome on May 11, 2011 (if he actually did seems open to question). This has also proved to be inaccurate, but didn't stop some 20% of the city's population taking the day off.

A bit inaccurate, there was a quake that day in Spain that killed 10 people

Sorry but 1239kms is well out and the earthquake in Spain was not the "monster" supposed to destroy a city the size of Rome. A 5.1 quake is relatively small, the people in Lorca were very unlucky to be the victims of a very shallow, direct hit similar to the one that caused such damage in Christchurch NZ.

There are thousands of earthquakes every day (luckily the vast majority are of little consequence) but the problem with prediction is that no one yet can say exactly where, when or at what magnitude the quake will be. Hence this silly competition, give it a go and see if you can predict a quake down to a 200km radius.

Chiang Rai.

[onionluke]

An earth quake is erupting but not in orange street

Bring back the Prince.

[zzaa09]

Is the end near?

[folium]

Is the end near?

That could be arranged....!

[folium]

Come on boys where's your spirit of adventure?

My punt for a magnitude 5.0+ earthquake between noon 13 May and noon 14 May is within a 200km radius of Ternate in the Moluccas, Indonesia.

What do you reckon?

That's an easy and safe locale to predict earth movement......as it might be the most continuously active areas on the earth. 9-and-a-half times out of 10.

Not true by a long score. In the short term the area east of Sendai, Japan remains the most active area in the world. Over a longer time scale Sumatra, Kamchatka, the Aleutians, Tonga and Fiji are probably the global hot spots for seismic activity. The reason I chose Ternate is that it has been relatively active in the last week and the quakes seem to be moving along the fault line in an easterly direction and there could well be another magnitude 5+ between noon 13 May and noon 14 May if the pattern is maintained.

Just to make the point attached are maps of 2011 seismic activity for the NE coast of Japan off Sendai and the Ternate area of Indonesia.

Ternate "might be the most continuously active areas on the earth. 9-and-a-half times out of 10." Think not!

[folium]

Prediction:

There will be a horrendous 6.1 quake tomorrow morning (12th May) at around 7am after my Weetabix and coffee, possible tsunami to follow soon after.

Epicentre: I have to be within a few hundred km so I'll go for... my bathroom.

Looks like we escaped that brush with the apocalypse!

[folium]

Secondly, a deceased Italian seismologist Raffaele Bendandi predicted in 1915 that a huge earthquake would strike Rome on May 11, 2011 (if he actually did seems open to question). This has also proved to be inaccurate, but didn't stop some 20% of the city's population taking the day off.

A bit inaccurate, there was a quake that day in Spain that killed 10 people

Sorry but 1239kms is well out and the earthquake in Spain was not the "monster" supposed to destroy a city the size of Rome. A 5.1 quake is relatively small, the people in Lorca were very unlucky to be the victims of a very shallow, direct hit similar to the one that caused such damage in Christchurch NZ.

There are thousands of earthquakes every day (luckily the vast majority are of little consequence) but the problem with prediction is that no one yet can say exactly where, when or at what magnitude the quake will be. Hence this silly competition, give it a go and see if you can predict a quake down to a 200km radius.

So far the closest to Chiang Rai (of any significance, thus on the USGS radar screen) are a triple of 4.6-4.7s on Thursday off Banda Aceh, Sumatra, which is 1675kms away.

Let's hope we don't get any closer ones.

Chiang Rai.

[folium]

Just to recap if anyone wants a go at quake prediction.

The rules of "I've Got The Power!" (apologies/credits to Bruce Almighty)

Choose a 24 hour period from 12 noon Thai time

Your prediction has to be a 200km radius of a given location (that's a town, city or even village for less populated parts of the world) Therefore, saying California or Japan will not count.

The earthquake has to be magnitude 5.0 or greater.

If your prediction comes true and results in major devastation and casualties the game will be cancelled and we will all sit back in awe and amazement.

All locations and magnitudes will be based on the USGS website data.

A summary of worldwide quake activity can be found at:

http://earthquake.us...es/recenteqsww/

So name a place and a date, and we will all see if you "Have the Power".

Edited May 14, 2011 by folium

[Semper]

Before 12 noon Friday 13 May you need to post your prediction on this thread.

Your prediction has to be a 200km radius of a given location

OP. Who was the winner?

[folium]

Not exactly overwhelmed by entrants so no one has yet scooped the prize hence my moving to a pick your own 24 hour period, but still need a location with 200km radius and quake in excess of 5.0 magnitude.

In a different online forum I've got about 20 predictions running over the next 5 days.

There have been eight 5.0mag earthquakes since Friday and the "hot money" is on the Loyalty Islands in the S. Pacific which have seen sixteen 5.0+ mag earthquakes in the last week.

[machans88]

Not exactly overwhelmed by entrants so no one has yet scooped the prize hence my moving to a pick your own 24 hour period, but still need a location with 200km radius and quake in excess of 5.0 magnitude.

In a different online forum I've got about 20 predictions running over the next 5 days.

There have been eight 5.0mag earthquakes since Friday and the "hot money" is on the Loyalty Islands in the S. Pacific which have seen sixteen 5.0+ mag earthquakes in the last week.

My gfs mother told us she is predicting a large earthquake "somewhere in thailand" on saturday 21may,i have been told by gf we must stay home and sit under dining table just in case mum is right..........

[folium]

Not exactly overwhelmed by entrants so no one has yet scooped the prize hence my moving to a pick your own 24 hour period, but still need a location with 200km radius and quake in excess of 5.0 magnitude.

In a different online forum I've got about 20 predictions running over the next 5 days.

There have been eight 5.0mag earthquakes since Friday and the "hot money" is on the Loyalty Islands in the S. Pacific which have seen sixteen 5.0+ mag earthquakes in the last week.

My gfs mother told us she is predicting a large earthquake "somewhere in thailand" on saturday 21may,i have been told by gf we must stay home and sit under dining table just in case mum is right..........

To be honest the GF's mum is no better or worse a source of quake prediction than any other method. This week has been pretty quiet compared to normal (average is 6-7 quakes 5.0+ magnitude each day), though activity seems to be picking up again and there's been a 6.0 aftershock off the east coast of Japan 30 minutes ago.

Hope your predictor is wrong and to be honest you would get pretty long odds on a 5.0 quake in Thailand anytime.

Have a nice time under the table, can you drink yourself under there?

[folium]

Here is my guess: On May 21, there is no city town or anything else in the area of the quake, the closest location to it will be Amochitka Island which only about the size of a large city (part of the Aleutian Island Chain) in the North Pacific.

But that was the only next quake over 5.0 that I see. Just remember May 21st.

Amchitka experienced a 4.1 quake at 11.16am Thai time on 15th may, nothing more recent. Looks like it's back to the day job.

Out of 31 predictions only 1 person got the right location, size and magnitude (it was Santiago, Chile and he was only 5 minutes into his designated day, so pretty close).

Just underlines that quake prediction is not easy, if it was you'd be a billionaire.

[folium]

Not exactly overwhelmed by entrants so no one has yet scooped the prize hence my moving to a pick your own 24 hour period, but still need a location with 200km radius and quake in excess of 5.0 magnitude.

In a different online forum I've got about 20 predictions running over the next 5 days.

There have been eight 5.0mag earthquakes since Friday and the "hot money" is on the Loyalty Islands in the S. Pacific which have seen sixteen 5.0+ mag earthquakes in the last week.

My gfs mother told us she is predicting a large earthquake "somewhere in thailand" on saturday 21may,i have been told by gf we must stay home and sit under dining table just in case mum is right..........

To be honest the GF's mum is no better or worse a source of quake prediction than any other method. This week has been pretty quiet compared to normal (average is 6-7 quakes 5.0+ magnitude each day), though activity seems to be picking up again and there's been a 6.0 aftershock off the east coast of Japan 30 minutes ago.

Hope your predictor is wrong and to be honest you would get pretty long odds on a 5.0 quake in Thailand anytime.

Have a nice time under the table, can you drink yourself under there?

Nothing closer than northern Sumatra, central China or northern Philippines of any size, so even the gf's mum is only as good as any other form of quake prediction, ie it remains total guesswork.

[spiderman]

Earthquakes.....HAARP? Weather Warfare? Scalar Technology?