Thaksin's Adviser Noppadon: If Everyone Abides By Poll Result, There Won't Be Post-Election Chaos

[webfact]

ELECTION

If everyone abides by poll result, there won't be post-election chaos : Noppadon

By The Nation

A legal adviser to former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has played down diplomatic concern about the threat of post-election chaos following a Pheu Thai victory, arguing the problem would not arise if all sides abided by the vote.

"After votes are cast, all sides must obey the voice of the people," Noppadon Patama said yesterday.

Noppadon said he saw it as a good sign that the diplomatic corps had shown a keen interest in the general election, helping to ensure a free and fair vote.

A number of Bangkok-based diplomats organised a forum to exchange views with Pheu Thai candidates, including Plodprasop Suraswadi.

Noppadon said he anticipated no repeat of the chaotic situation under the two successive governments of Samak Sundaravej and Somchai Wongsawat. Doom scenarios were unwarranted, he added.

At issue was not whether Democrat Abhisit Vejjajiva or Pheu Thai's Yingluck Shinawatra would lead the next government, but compliance with the outcome of the vote result, he said.

If the vote was abused, then democracy would veer off course regardless of the winning party, he said.

The Election Commission and the Royal Thai Police have jointly organised an awareness campaign to remind political parties and voters about campaigning and voting rules.

The campaign was broadcast live by Channel 9.

Election Commission |member Prapun Naigowit said international observers would be granted access to monitor the balloting and he was confident the vote would be sanctioned by the international community.

Praput reminded pollsters there was a ban on the disclosure of survey results seven days ahead of election day.

In regard to safeguarding ballot boxes for advance voting, he said the June 26 advance ballots would be stored at the district office of each constituency and monitored by security cameras until the vote tallying on July 3. Representatives of every political party would be allowed to check via the panel of cameras.

Meanwhile, Bhum Jai Thai leader Chaovarat Chanweerakul said he saw no justification for concern about the voting outcome triggering chaos.

Chaovarat said he did not believe there would be outside tampering with the vote or attempts to pressure the formation of the next government.

Party spokesman Supachai Jaisamut said the post-election concern raised by foreign diplomats should be heeded.

After the 2007 general |election, Samak and Somchai were unable to take the country forward due to street protests. Supachai said he feared there would be hostility from the anti-Thaksin camp if Yingluck won this election because she was Thaksin's younger sister.

-- The Nation 2011-06-13

[Ricardo]

One can only welcome an EC-member saying, that "international observers would be granted access to monitor the balloting", this is definitely a step in the right direction.

[lannarebirth]

One can only welcome an EC-member saying, that "international observers would be granted access to monitor the balloting", this is definitely a step in the right direction.

I agree, but if you've ever spent much time in a Thai village you'll know that the illegalities happen weeks, if not months before the actual election. I doubt if any observers would be present to see it and if they were, if they had no knowledge of Thai language or culture, they wouldn't even know what they were looking at.

[ianf]

One can only welcome an EC-member saying, that "international observers would be granted access to monitor the balloting", this is definitely a step in the right direction.

Its what's happening before the balloting that is more important. The threats, intimidation, tearing down of Democrat Posters and the money/bribes.

[ginjag]

One can only welcome an EC-member saying, that "international observers would be granted access to monitor the balloting", this is definitely a step in the right direction.

Its what's happening before the balloting that is more important. The threats, intimidation, tearing down of Democrat Posters and the money/bribes.

The pay off for votes has more or less been completed, the 100 bht rally attendance money paid many people attending as many rallies as possible, In Issan when approx 7 rallies in 1 day hence 700 bht in pocket, and many had transport laid on, as I say these rallies are separate to the vote money given prior. Doing anything now is a bit late==observers will observe nothing.

As for post election problems I wouldn't gamble on it, especially when anti red shirt voters know what has already happened. Can anyone tell me how it is so open for all this to be happening with the village headman, and local governments involved =if monitored they would automatically be disqualified.

[eezergood]

"No justification for concer"......just business as usual in LOS

[fatfather]

....helping to ensure a free and fair vote

....If the vote was abused, then democracy would veer off course regardless of the winning party, he said

What is a free and fair vote in Thailand? One of the parties does the 500Baht game full power, that is fair and free? Teams are going arround and make 500Baht presents... A shop owner denied to take the 500Baht with the comment that he will not support vote buying. The donators then replied that this is not vote buying, it is just a small present from the party!!! This is definitivly not the correct way to democracy, it remains what it ever was. TIT

fatfather

[timekeeper]

he should be preaching to his own choir

the democrats said on a live TV debate they would abide by the result

the red mouthpiece when asked if he would do the same said, ''THAT DEPENDS''........

[otherstuff1957]

I may be wrong, (and I admit that Thai politics can frequently defy Western logic), but I can see three scenarios that could lead to post-election violence:  

1.  PT fails to win the largest number of seats:  The Redshirts would be out in a flash, claiming electoral fraud.  

2.  PT wins more seat than any other party (quite likely), but fails to put together a coalition:  Again the Reds would come out.  

3.  PT forms a government and tries to give Thaksin amnesty.  The Yellows would be revitalized or the army would step in. - I don't think a PT victory, in and of itself, would lead to violence only the threatened return of Thaksin would.

Edited June 13, 2011 by otherstuff1957

[whybother]

<snip>

I don't think a PT victory, in and of itself, would lead to violence only the threatened return of Thaksin would.

That's what happened after the 2007 election. There were no problems for 3-4 months until the Samak government started to play around with the constitution to whitewash Thaksin's crimes.

[otherstuff1957]

^ Exactly. That's why it's a pretty safe prediction. In fact, if PT didn't try to bring back Thaksin, there would be no reason why they couldn't finish a complete term.

[Ricardo]

One can only welcome an EC-member saying, that "international observers would be granted access to monitor the balloting", this is definitely a step in the right direction.

I agree, but if you've ever spent much time in a Thai village you'll know that the illegalities happen weeks, if not months before the actual election. I doubt if any observers would be present to see it and if they were, if they had no knowledge of Thai language or culture, they wouldn't even know what they were looking at.

Understood, but it would help deter the UDD 'monitors' recently-proposed from direct-intimidation at the polling-station, or the positioning of voting-booths so that voters' choices could be seen, as in 2006 in our village.

It's only a small step, in the right direction, but given the frequent nationalistic denial of any need for international-monitoring of Thai elections, still a positive comment IMO. Progress comes in small stages here. And the E.C. seems to have been moving in the right direction over the past several years.

[hyperdimension]

One of the parties does the 500Baht game full power, that is fair and free? Teams are going arround and make 500Baht presents... A shop owner denied to take the 500Baht with the comment that he will not support vote buying. The donators then replied that this is not vote buying, it is just a small present from the party!!! This is definitivly not the correct way to democracy, it remains what it ever was. TIT

If you are referring to Pheu Thai, and if there's enough evidence of what you claim, then Pheu Thai have already lost, as if they do win then the evidence can be used to disqualify them. The big question will of course be the amount of evidence. I hope there are a large network of informants around recording video and audio.

[Thailand]

Abiding by the result is surely aimed at the military as it now looks like PT might even get a majority.

Should they do so I sincerely hope for the countries sake they do not give amnesty to anyone of any color etc.

[hanuman1]

he should be preaching to his own choir

the democrats said on a live TV debate they would abide by the result

the red mouthpiece when asked if he would do the same said, ''THAT DEPENDS''........

It doesn't appear that his comment was aimed specifically at the Dems, but at 'all sides'. This also encompasses PTP supporters, the army and all other stakeholders.

[lannarebirth]

Abiding by the result is surely aimed at the military as it now looks like PT might even get a majority.

Should they do so I sincerely hope for the countries sake they do not give amnesty to anyone of any color etc.

Regardless of who may win the PM's seat, regardless of who may win a majority or who may be able to form a majority coalition, amnesty is off the table. If they try it you're not going to see PAD in the streets, you're going to see EVERYONE in the streets.

[wolfmanjack]

One of the parties does the 500Baht game full power, that is fair and free? Teams are going arround and make 500Baht presents... A shop owner denied to take the 500Baht with the comment that he will not support vote buying. The donators then replied that this is not vote buying, it is just a small present from the party!!! This is definitivly not the correct way to democracy, it remains what it ever was. TIT

If you are referring to Pheu Thai, and if there's enough evidence of what you claim, then Pheu Thai have already lost, as if they do win then the evidence can be used to disqualify them. The big question will of course be the amount of evidence. I hope there are a large network of informants around recording video and audio.

Many people have video on their cellphone. maybe some of these 500 baht "gifts" and the accompanying explanation will make it on youtube.

[khaowong1]

One can only welcome an EC-member saying, that "international observers would be granted access to monitor the balloting", this is definitely a step in the right direction.

I agree, but if you've ever spent much time in a Thai village you'll know that the illegalities happen weeks, if not months before the actual election. I doubt if any observers would be present to see it and if they were, if they had no knowledge of Thai language or culture, they wouldn't even know what they were looking at.

Yes, payments have already been make with promises of cooperation by the voters. And believe this, everyone knows how you voted. There is no secrets at the ballot box.

[Roadman]

One of the parties does the 500Baht game full power, that is fair and free? Teams are going arround and make 500Baht presents... A shop owner denied to take the 500Baht with the comment that he will not support vote buying. The donators then replied that this is not vote buying, it is just a small present from the party!!! This is definitivly not the correct way to democracy, it remains what it ever was. TIT

If you are referring to Pheu Thai, and if there's enough evidence of what you claim, then Pheu Thai have already lost, as if they do win then the evidence can be used to disqualify them. The big question will of course be the amount of evidence. I hope there are a large network of informants around recording video and audio.

You would think that they would learn after the EC/judicary banned the Thai Rak Thai elected members last time. Some how I think this time around there will be little difference. Yet another reason why, if these idiots do win at the ballot box, that they will give enough ammo to the EC/judicary/Army to see their asses out of parliament and probable futher feuding.

[MILT]

One can only welcome an EC-member saying, that "international observers would be granted access to monitor the balloting", this is definitely a step in the right direction.

Maybe so but counting the ballots after the vote was bought does seem somewhat a joke.

[anterian]

I find it strange with all this constant talk of vote buying I never see it in my area, believe me I would know if it were happening. I would think my area being roughly 50:50 it would be a prime target. I would dearly love to see some of these claimed videos, there is much smoke but no fire that I can detect. If vote buying is for real then it must be a provincial thing, not suburban.

[letitbe]

I find it strange with all this constant talk of vote buying I never see it in my area, believe me I would know if it were happening. I would think my area being roughly 50:50 it would be a prime target. I would dearly love to see some of these claimed videos, there is much smoke but no fire that I can detect. If vote buying is for real then it must be a provincial thing, not suburban.

i think your right but i can assure you it goes on in villages and weather its true people think the ballet is not secret. I went to last election with my wife and apart from voting booths being wrong way round i dont think their was any number on ballet paper which could link my wifes vote. We tried explaining this to our maid saying unless theirs a number or something on ballet paper which can link to her name it is secret. She still insists they know. Also my mother in law does receive money for her vote but she takes it from both sides and votes for one paying most. Im told Taksins lot pay 700-1000 baht this time (500 baht last time) Newins lot about same and dems about 500 baht. I assure you intimidation vote buying and rest make it very difficult for anyone in red taksin country to vote any other way. In City where we used to live i never saw any vote buying but people where paid to come out in streets and show support.

[anterian]

I find it strange with all this constant talk of vote buying I never see it in my area, believe me I would know if it were happening. I would think my area being roughly 50:50 it would be a prime target. I would dearly love to see some of these claimed videos, there is much smoke but no fire that I can detect. If vote buying is for real then it must be a provincial thing, not suburban.

i think your right but i can assure you it goes on in villages and weather its true people think the ballet is not secret. I went to last election with my wife and apart from voting booths being wrong way round i dont think their was any number on ballet paper which could link my wifes vote. We tried explaining this to our maid saying unless theirs a number or something on ballet paper which can link to her name it is secret. She still insists they know. Also my mother in law does receive money for her vote but she takes it from both sides and votes for one paying most. Im told Taksins lot pay 700-1000 baht this time (500 baht last time) Newins lot about same and dems about 500 baht. I assure you intimidation vote buying and rest make it very difficult for anyone in red taksin country to vote any other way. In City where we used to live i never saw any vote buying but people where paid to come out in streets and show support.

As I said to my Thai partner, with all this vote buying why can't you get some extra cash. She said she would if she could but none of the local candidates are offering any

What they do do, is provide community benefits, street lights, swings for children in the recreation area, health checks, things like that.

[Buchholz]

I may be wrong, (and I admit that Thai politics can frequently defy Western logic), but I can see three scenarios that could lead to post-election violence:

1. PT fails to win the largest number of seats: The Redshirts would be out in a flash, claiming electoral fraud.

They've already covered that in April....

From The Nation:

...

The Pheu Thai Party added to their confidence that the only reason it would not win the next election could be only because the government has already orchestrated a plan to cheat in the next poll in order to topple the Pheu Thai Party....

If we don't win the government must have cheated. Right. Orchestrated plan, correct. Didn't Robert A. write something similar in his report. Keep repeating it, one day there may be people who even believe it.

Like "Less than one year ago, the military-backed regime, headed up by United Kingdom citizen Mark Abhisit Vejjajiva, oversaw the murder of some 91 protesters in order to avoid an early election it feared it might lose.". Enlightening, care for one more? "A full year has passed since Thailand's British-born Prime Minister, Mark Abhisit, sent his soldiers and snipers to Kok Wua to kill you, in an attempt to silence your calls for democracy."

Read all on the website dedicated to sound bites and 'no need to prove, everyone knowns' ( http://robertamsterdam.com/thailand/ )

[jayboy]

I may be wrong, (and I admit that Thai politics can frequently defy Western logic), but I can see three scenarios that could lead to post-election violence:

1. PT fails to win the largest number of seats: The Redshirts would be out in a flash, claiming electoral fraud.

They've already covered that in April....

From The Nation:

...

The Pheu Thai Party added to their confidence that the only reason it would not win the next election could be only because the government has already orchestrated a plan to cheat in the next poll in order to topple the Pheu Thai Party....

If we don't win the government must have cheated. Right. Orchestrated plan, correct. Didn't Robert A. write something similar in his report. Keep repeating it, one day there may be people who even believe it.

Like "Less than one year ago, the military-backed regime, headed up by United Kingdom citizen Mark Abhisit Vejjajiva, oversaw the murder of some 91 protesters in order to avoid an early election it feared it might lose.". Enlightening, care for one more? "A full year has passed since Thailand's British-born Prime Minister, Mark Abhisit, sent his soldiers and snipers to Kok Wua to kill you, in an attempt to silence your calls for democracy."

Read all on the website dedicated to sound bites and 'no need to prove, everyone knowns' ( http://robertamsterdam.com/thailand/ )

It's actually the case that it's very difficult to "fix" elections in Thailand.Of course there are irregularities - vote buying, intimidation by the military etc - but this doesn't seem to have affected the overall result over the years.On this occasion there will be plenty of monitors but to give the Thais credit I don't think that external observers are needed to guarantee the process.However much the redshirts complain about the system, the fact is that whoever wins the largest number of seats has a genuine mandate.So if hypothetically the redshirts (or anyone else) claims electoral fraud they should not be given the time of day.

The fact also is that Noppadon is quite right.If all parties abide by the poll result there will not be chaos.The issue is not irregularities at the polling stations but the actions taken by those who simply refuse to accept the nation's verdict.The same criteria apply to the redshirts and the unelected ruling elite.

[hellodolly]

I may be wrong, (and I admit that Thai politics can frequently defy Western logic), but I can see three scenarios that could lead to post-election violence:

1. PT fails to win the largest number of seats: The Redshirts would be out in a flash, claiming electoral fraud.

2. PT wins more seat than any other party (quite likely), but fails to put together a coalition: Again the Reds would come out.

3. PT forms a government and tries to give Thaksin amnesty. The Yellows would be revitalized or the army would step in. - I don't think a PT victory, in and of itself, would lead to violence only the threatened return of Thaksin would.

Well I have to agree with you a pt victory would not lead to violence but a pt loss would. Thaksin spent a lot of money to get the chance to come back and he would not just roll over if all doors were shut in his face with the exception of coming back and doing the Democratic thing and serving his time.

[scorecard]

One of the parties does the 500Baht game full power, that is fair and free? Teams are going arround and make 500Baht presents... A shop owner denied to take the 500Baht with the comment that he will not support vote buying. The donators then replied that this is not vote buying, it is just a small present from the party!!! This is definitivly not the correct way to democracy, it remains what it ever was. TIT

If you are referring to Pheu Thai, and if there's enough evidence of what you claim, then Pheu Thai have already lost, as if they do win then the evidence can be used to disqualify them. The big question will of course be the amount of evidence. I hope there are a large network of informants around recording video and audio.

In theory of course you are correct, but in practice very few people will come forward, especially in the red areas, where there must be some who are not red suporters, who would not dare to comment, because they risk the severe intimidation of their family members, vendors refuse to sell them food, even school kids intimidating their children, and even more so if the village kumnan is on the paymasters payroll, and he too would not dare to step outside the box.

[ginjag]

I find it strange with all this constant talk of vote buying I never see it in my area, believe me I would know if it were happening. I would think my area being roughly 50:50 it would be a prime target. I would dearly love to see some of these claimed videos, there is much smoke but no fire that I can detect. If vote buying is for real then it must be a provincial thing, not suburban.

i think your right but i can assure you it goes on in villages and weather its true people think the ballet is not secret. I went to last election with my wife and apart from voting booths being wrong way round i dont think their was any number on ballet paper which could link my wifes vote. We tried explaining this to our maid saying unless theirs a number or something on ballet paper which can link to her name it is secret. She still insists they know. Also my mother in law does receive money for her vote but she takes it from both sides and votes for one paying most. Im told Taksins lot pay 700-1000 baht this time (500 baht last time) Newins lot about same and dems about 500 baht. I assure you intimidation vote buying and rest make it very difficult for anyone in red taksin country to vote any other way. In City where we used to live i never saw any vote buying but people where paid to come out in streets and show support.

As I said to my Thai partner, with all this vote buying why can't you get some extra cash. She said she would if she could but none of the local candidates are offering any

What they do do, is provide community benefits, street lights, swings for children in the recreation area, health checks, things like that.

I have no Idea what area, but you don't sound like your Issan area, as your wife would be quids in for sure, taking all from whatever party, apart from the votes all the attendance money paid for being at the rallies, the locals in my area are all smiles, ( I think it's the local whiskey thats doing it). Where the reds are getting their cash from I couldn't guess throwing it around like confetti. But if these Issan people don't get what has been promissed if they win, they will turn very angry.

[Scubadude770]

One can only welcome an EC-member saying, that "international observers would be granted access to monitor the balloting", this is definitely a step in the right direction.

I agree, but if you've ever spent much time in a Thai village you'll know that the illegalities happen weeks, if not months before the actual election. I doubt if any observers would be present to see it and if they were, if they had no knowledge of Thai language or culture, they wouldn't even know what they were looking at.

Yes, payments have already been make with promises of cooperation by the voters. And believe this, everyone knows how you voted. There is no secrets at the ballot box.

I am amazed at the number of people that seem to know what goes on in every village across the country and seem to think it is exactly the same in every on of them.

The generality of it is this, and it is indeed a generalization : People accept the gift then go and vote however they da** well please without any repercussions.

You pro Dems are reacting to the popularity polls with your endless "it's not fair" campaign.

Thaksin will be granted amnesty. Thaksin will return to Thailand. Thaksin will be arrested by the Army. The country will go into chaos. The Army will take over..... you heard it hear.

[angmo]

Vote buying is really not an issue. Most of my Thai friends - especially the younger generation - are smarter than given credit for. They take money from everyone offering it and then go and vote for the people they prefer anyway. Thai people are smart - it is the parties that are stupid thinking they can truly buy the votes.