Dollar V. Thb...........

[Thighlander]

The Dollar has been gaining strength lately. Do you think the momentum has changed? I watched an interview on Bloomberg with Professor James Rogers, who lives in Singapore, and he stated that he was bullish on the Dollar, because almost everyone, including himself were bearish. He is a big advocate of "contrarian investing". One of the last really bad recessions we had ended with a very strong Dollar. Any opinions?

Edited June 28, 2011 by Thighlander

[Ulysses G.]

I think that we are pretty much f____ed.

[Gary A]

I think it is just a temporary and expected thing. It was expected because right before the upswing, I wire transferred my year of living expenses and the money for my retirement visa bank deposit. It is just an example of my normal financial luck.

[chops]

I think there will be a repeat of 2008 next year. Recession and better exchange rates will come with it. Maybe we'll see 35 baht to the $ again I hope.

[Bizz]

Never knew he was a professor always taught he was a professional gambler and quite a successful one at that.

http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com/

[farang000999]

JR bullish on USD in short term not long term.

[Berkshire]

I think that we are pretty much f____ed.

If one of the rating agencies downgrade US debt (being discussed just this morning), I think we will be f**ked.

[IMA_FARANG]

As I said a couple of hours ago in another post...my personal opinion is not that the percieved value of the dollar against the baht will depend not as much on the dollar...but that the baht at 30 baht to the dollar is unrealistic for the long term. Especially if there is disruption after the upcoming election here in Thailand, which has a good possibility that it will happen I believe. That doesn't mean riots or such, it just means economic instability and uncertainty.

For that reason I think we will see between 32 and 33 baht to a dollar soon enough. Let's say just as a guess within the next 6 months. I don't believe the long term prospects for the Thai economy are good enough to maintain the 30 baht to a dollar rate. I also think that the reason it has gone from 28 point something a few months ago to 30.7 (today) is that those who are in the know are already getting out of holding the baht...because they also think after the election the baht will lose value.

Of oourse, as I said before, I'm far from an expert on this...but it is just my gut feeling. I've been wrong before, and it may be that I am now. Nothing unusual there.

Edited June 28, 2011 by IMA_FARANG

[Thighlander]

Very good assessment. It is quite hard to make currency forecasts....the experts get it wrong all the time. The Thai Government may want it at 36 more than anyone. People quickly forgot that the Euro was headed to parity last year, and at one point it seemed 50-50 that it would. 1.11 I think was the low--a far cry from the 2.00 they were singing in 2008.

[CaptHaddock]

From time to time the dollar will go up as a safe haven during financial upheaval. At the moment the problem is with the euro: Greek default and the possibility of exit from the euro zone of any of the PIIGS. In the long term though the US trade deficit (NOT the budget deficit and NOT the US credit rating) will result in a declining USD exchange rate. The dollar will remain a reserve currency, possibly evn the dominant, if not the only, one. For the euro or the yuan to become the dominant reserve currency Germany or China would have to be willing to run trade deficits, which they are not.

It's possible that the US and other economies may fall into recession next year or at least experience reduced growth. That could increase the value of the dollar somewhat. The Thai political troubles did not affect its exchange rate last year and will not have much effect this year even if social unrest develops.

For those of us who expect to have our liabilities in baht in the coming years the current period may be a good time to hedge the dollar.

[PingManDan]

I think that we are pretty much f____ed.

I agree

[Naam]

Very good assessment. It is quite hard to make currency forecasts....the experts get it wrong all the time. The Thai Government may want it at 36 more than anyone. People quickly forgot that the Euro was headed to parity last year, and at one point it seemed 50-50 that it would. 1.11 I think was the low--a far cry from the 2.00 they were singing in 2008.

the last time EURUSD was 1.11 was eight years ago. 1.215 was low last year. parity? yes, but only in wet dreams

[KeyserSoze01]

The US Federal Reserve will keep the USD depressed until employment and housing numbers improve, which will be years. In other words, don't count on a strong USD for the foreseeable future. Yeah, it may bounce with the PIGS crisis facing the EU, but until the US government implements strict fiscal policy and sticks to it, the USD will continue to be in the porcelain convenience.

The only currency more fokked than the USD is the EUR right now. The flight to safety of late is the CHF.

[Bizz]

Very good assessment. It is quite hard to make currency forecasts....the experts get it wrong all the time. The Thai Government may want it at 36 more than anyone. People quickly forgot that the Euro was headed to parity last year, and at one point it seemed 50-50 that it would. 1.11 I think was the low--a far cry from the 2.00 they were singing in 2008.

the last time EURUSD was 1.11 was eight years ago. 1.215 was low last year. parity? yes, but only in wet dreams

Easy explanation.

Euro is what is now a realization that if we do not get to grips with what we ow we will become what do they say bankrupt yes over the edge of the precipice we are falling down and then there is quantitative easing oh thankfully this will go on forever, sadly no there is a time for reckoning a time to deliver the pretence that we can in some way pay this mountain of dept back. Yes but to whom and for how long.

The European crisis is deepening, yes. Couple that with the ills in the US and it makes for a grim picture.

and The Goldman Sachs bonus collapse is under-way yes. Not surprising, given the bank's miserable earnings report today.

Who gives a shi*.Really. and what one reported individual company said once it would do, or be we know now.So who gives a shi* now

They Should Be Hung Drawn and Quartered.

Yes the time has come when the realization has set in that there is and will be not the same amount of freedom in the financial markets as there was and has been for the previous century.

[billaaa777]

I used to think it could never get worst than 35, now I pray for the day we will see that rate again.

[FrancisTenta]

As a Canadian, I am glad my dollar is high and competitive in the international market. But let's talk about reality. Economy is going very bad in the United-States. Mixed with some governments mistakes and it gives the result we have right now, a USD loosing steam and it is just the beginning.

President Obama made a major mistake last week. It was the truth, but not everything can be said when you are a politician. He want so much to win the next elections that he said the debt is at the highest point and they wont be able to get out of this situation if the congress dont accept the changes he want to do. Moodie's, a few days before, say they want to lower USA credit score who is actually AAA. What does this means? It means that USA will have a bad credit. Obama also said he may not be able to give salary to unemployed people by August 3rd. Such a bad call. Investors got scared and they all sold their stocks and kept their money for a future recession.

I did sold all my US stocks when I heard that. The day after, I would have lost more than 2000$.

My opinion, USD will crash at a point you never saw. Big changes are coming.

[geriatrickid]

I think that we are pretty much f____ed.

If one of the rating agencies downgrade US debt (being discussed just this morning), I think we will be f**ked.

Naw, it would be on just swathe of notes. As soon as the debt deal was finalized the rating would be reversed. Everything is going to be ok. The Republicans are beginning to see that their brinkmanship is going to cost them dearly. If Bachmann and the Tea party nutters are unhappy so be it. They'll never be happy anyway.

[vpi78]

As a Canadian, I am glad my dollar is high and competitive in the international market. But let's talk about reality. Economy is going very bad in the United-States. Mixed with some governments mistakes and it gives the result we have right now, a USD loosing steam and it is just the beginning.

President Obama made a major mistake last week. It was the truth, but not everything can be said when you are a politician. He want so much to win the next elections that he said the debt is at the highest point and they wont be able to get out of this situation if the congress dont accept the changes he want to do. Moodie's, a few days before, say they want to lower USA credit score who is actually AAA. What does this means? It means that USA will have a bad credit. Obama also said he may not be able to give salary to unemployed people by August 3rd. Such a bad call. Investors got scared and they all sold their stocks and kept their money for a future recession.

I did sold all my US stocks when I heard that. The day after, I would have lost more than 2000$.

My opinion, USD will crash at a point you never saw. Big changes are coming.

Interesting view. Mine is to discount everything BHO has to say about the economy. One of his first speeches after being elected a senator in 2006 was about "The only reason we are here today (senate debate) to raise the debt ceiling is a lack of leadership."

Wonder what ole Barry thinks in 2011?

Edited July 21, 2011 by bonobo
fixed problem with quote box

[EvilDrSomkid]

Top right of this page says it is at 29.76 now. I would guess because of the debt ceiling issue?

The US will never get out of this massive abyss of a debt, unless they increase taxes across the board and seriously cut spending. The US cannot afford to be in Afghanistan or Iraq anymore. Last time I heard, the Defense budget is 728 billion a year. They should able to cut something out of this?

Who is blocking raising taxes and cutting defense spending? The Republicans.

Why? Well, IMO its because if Obama manages to reduce debt by raising taxes (on the rich), the Reps would have egg on their faces and their voters will get pissed because Republicans are allergic to taxes, no matter how high or low they are.

The Republicans argue that taxing the rich more "eliminates job creation dollars". IMHO, the biggest pile of horse shit.

Mega corporations making billions in profit per year will not stop hiring or for that matter firing people because they had to pay a billion more in taxes.

The privately super-rich in the US will not stop investing, stop hiring or for that matter firing people because they had to pay more taxes.

What kind of tax increase are we talking about anyway?

However, its going to take a lot of taxing and cost cutting to start filling a 14.3 TRILLION dollar hole.

The Republicans seem to forget that this massive debt skyrocketed during 8 years of Bush administration.

Is it in America's interest to have a weak dollar so their exports are cheaper? No idea.

A weak USD sucks for me. That is what it comes down to.

[FrancisTenta]

You can not tax too much super rich companies as they are going to leave for Mexico or China. It is gonna be, of course, to American citizens to work harder for a lower salary.

Let's be honnest. When we make our monthly budget, We spend less money than the amount entering our bank account right? The problem in the USA is that they lived for too long on money they did not have. They were building massive stuffs, making war to other countries. So much money thrown away.

I really like Barack Obama and his focus on US citizens and not on war. But he took the country in a situation he can not reverse. You want to see the decline of an empire, look at the United-States. Money is going to get lower. When gold is this high, it is because economy is bad.

I wish all the best for my neighbor country

[vpi78]

You can not tax too much super rich companies as they are going to leave for Mexico or China. It is gonna be, of course, to American citizens to work harder for a lower salary.

Let's be honnest. When we make our monthly budget, We spend less money than the amount entering our bank account right? The problem in the USA is that they lived for too long on money they did not have. They were building massive stuffs, making war to other countries. So much money thrown away.

I really like Barack Obama and his focus on US citizens and not on war. But he took the country in a situation he can not reverse. You want to see the decline of an empire, look at the United-States. Money is going to get lower. When gold is this high, it is because economy is bad.

I wish all the best for my neighbor country

LOL, Barry's focus is on the US citizens all right ... take money from those that have it and redistribute it to his supporters. He's an outright socialist and as Margaret Thatcher said, "the problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of the other person's money." As far as not focusing on the war, clever way to say he is mismanaging that by benign neglect as well.

But you can say one good thing about Barry, i.e., he saved the world from a President Hillary.

[StreetCowboy]

As a Canadian, I am glad my dollar is high and competitive in the international market. But let's talk about reality. Economy is going very bad in the United-States. Mixed with some governments mistakes and it gives the result we have right now, a USD loosing steam and it is just the beginning.

President Obama made a major mistake last week. It was the truth, but not everything can be said when you are a politician. He want so much to win the next elections that he said the debt is at the highest point and they wont be able to get out of this situation if the congress dont accept the changes he want to do. Moodie's, a few days before, say they want to lower USA credit score who is actually AAA. What does this means? It means that USA will have a bad credit. Obama also said he may not be able to give salary to unemployed people by August 3rd. Such a bad call. Investors got scared and they all sold their stocks and kept their money for a future recession.

I did sold all my US stocks when I heard that. The day after, I would have lost more than 2000$.

My opinion, USD will crash at a point you never saw. Big changes are coming.

Is the economy really very bad, or is their currency overvalued because of the reckless investment by Chinese and others?

Have US attempts to devalue their currency been thwarted by the Chinese, who are always willing to manage it?

What value is currency anyway? Surely only real goods have any value, and currency is merely a means to allow the exchange of goods.

Is there a magic number for exchange rates?

Is a dollar worth more than three plums on the bandit?

SC

[FrancisTenta]

As a Canadian, I am glad my dollar is high and competitive in the international market. But let's talk about reality. Economy is going very bad in the United-States. Mixed with some governments mistakes and it gives the result we have right now, a USD loosing steam and it is just the beginning.

President Obama made a major mistake last week. It was the truth, but not everything can be said when you are a politician. He want so much to win the next elections that he said the debt is at the highest point and they wont be able to get out of this situation if the congress dont accept the changes he want to do. Moodie's, a few days before, say they want to lower USA credit score who is actually AAA. What does this means? It means that USA will have a bad credit. Obama also said he may not be able to give salary to unemployed people by August 3rd. Such a bad call. Investors got scared and they all sold their stocks and kept their money for a future recession.

I did sold all my US stocks when I heard that. The day after, I would have lost more than 2000$.

My opinion, USD will crash at a point you never saw. Big changes are coming.

Is the economy really very bad, or is their currency overvalued because of the reckless investment by Chinese and others?

Have US attempts to devalue their currency been thwarted by the Chinese, who are always willing to manage it?

What value is currency anyway? Surely only real goods have any value, and currency is merely a means to allow the exchange of goods.

Is there a magic number for exchange rates?

Is a dollar worth more than three plums on the bandit?

SC

Before currency, there had gold. Before gold, there had product exchange.

Reality is that now, we work with currency. We use it for everything. Exchange of goods or services. In my opinion, US currency was not overvalued. Americans used to make pretty good, but expensive products. A product made in USA was expensive, but also well made.

China, with their cheap labor, has a major advantage. What is their advantage? The fact that they sells cheap product in a bad global economy.

Now, to answer your question. USA overvalued or China undervalued? This is easy to say that USA was overvalued. But this is not the case. They still at the same stage. What we are seeing right now is the rising of the other around the United-States. China is a way more undervalued. China is now the global leader. The keep their currency low because they want to stay competitive in the market.

China is the new super power and no doubt we are going to see their real face in a few years with all those rising countries around USA who is not competitive anymore against countries like Korea, India and other merging countries.

[saraburioz]

I think there will be a repeat of 2008 next year. Recession and better exchange rates will come with it. Maybe we'll see 35 baht to the $ again I hope.

I hope it goes down to 20 baht - great news for us that earn baht.

Gotta laugh at the usa

Edited July 21, 2011 by saraburioz

[vpi78]

I think there will be a repeat of 2008 next year. Recession and better exchange rates will come with it. Maybe we'll see 35 baht to the $ again I hope.

I hope it goes down to 20 baht - great news for us that earn baht.

Gotta laugh at the usa

Gotta laugh at idiots like you that probably earn money in baht and then spend much of it on imported goods. That's at best a wash for you dork.

You're too stupid to get into the USA so please stay away.