Fugitive Ex-Leader Thaksin Dominates Thai Election

[webfact]

Fugitive ex-leader Thaksin dominates Thai election

by Janesara Fugal

SANKAMPHAENG, June 29, 2011 (AFP) - With his vast riches and family ties, fugitive former Thai leader Thaksin Shinawatra may be on the verge of a remarkable comeback, despite being convicted of graft and wanted on terrorism charges.

But if his opposition Puea Thai Party wins this weekend's election, as polls suggest is likely, the controversial ex-premier will have to savour victory from afar.

Ousted in a military coup five years ago, the former tycoon lives in self-imposed exile in Dubai, having fled Thailand in 2008 before a court sentenced him in absentia to two years in prison for corruption.

The 61-year-old remains an idol for many rural and working class voters for his populist policies while in power, but is hated by the ruling elite who see him as corrupt and a threat to the revered monarchy.

"People who thought that the coup of 2006 was going to be the flush of the toilet for Thaksin were absolutely wrong," according to Thailand expert Paul Chambers.

Parties linked to Thaksin, the former owner of Manchester City football club, have won the most seats in the past four elections, but the courts reversed the results of the last two polls, angering his supporters.

Today he is seen as the driving force behind Puea Thai, whose candidate for premier is none other than his youngest sister Yingluck Shinawatra.

But not all the family is happy with Thaksin's efforts to return to the political limelight.

"His father wouldn't support him if he were still alive," Thaksin's 82-year-old aunt Taowan Shinawatra told AFP in an interview at her home in northern Thailand, saying he should stick to business.

"We have enough as it is. We don't need to go into politics. People who go into politics can't let go of the prestige. He is obsessed by it."

Many think Thaksin would continue to call the shots if the opposition wins, and its campaign slogan -- "Thaksin thinks, Puea Thai does" -- appears to leave little doubt.

Far from trying to ignore him, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has made his rival a central theme of his own election battle, urging voters "to get rid of the poison of Thaksin."

The ex-premier remains a hugely divisive figure in Thailand, where he faces a raft of criminal charges including terrorism -- an accusation linked to mass opposition protests by his "Red Shirt" supporters last year that turned deadly.

If found guilty, he could in theory face the death penalty.

The opposition has proposed an amnesty for convicted politicians if it wins the election -- a move apparently aimed at bringing Thaksin home.

But many doubt the Bangkok-based elite in government, military and palace circles would allow him to return a free man.

"I don't think Thaksin will be coming back to Thailand any time soon. I think if he does, that would be a green light for a possible coup," said Chambers, a senior research fellow at Payap University in northern Thailand.

Born into one of the most prominent ethnic Chinese families in northern Chiang Mai province, Thaksin, whose father was also a politician, gave up a brief career with the police to study in the United States.

He went on to form telecoms giant Shin Corp and in 1998 moved into politics when he started his own political party, Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thais).

He was elected as prime minister in 2001 -- becoming the country's first premier to serve a full term -- and re-elected four years later to create Thailand's first single party government in seven decades.

In the Shinawatra family's hometown of Sankamphaeng, famous for its fine silks, the boy who used to sell coffee and ice cream at his father's shop is still a hero to many.

"He was a good boy, very kind," said 79-year-old market vendor Somjit Suwanthip. "He helped the country. I want to see him back."

As well as his sibling, Thaksin also has a niece standing for parliament in northern Thailand and a son at the helm of a media group, Voice TV, which gives prominence to the family's political activities..

The former tycoon, who insists he has no ambition to lead Thailand again, describes his youngest sister as his "clone" -- a description she says underlines their similar thinking.

"We are alike in the sense that I have learned from him in business and I understand his vision, how he solves problems and the way he built everything from the beginning," Yingluck told AFP on the campaign trail.

She makes no secret of her attempt to ride on her brother's coat-tails.

In a careful choreographed campaign, she starts her rallies by asking the crowd: "I don't know how much you love Thaksin. But can you share some of this love for me, his younger sister?"

-- (c) Copyright AFP 2011-06-29

[Buchholz]

"His father wouldn't support him if he were still alive," Thaksin's 82-year-old aunt Taowan Shinawatra told AFP in an interview at her home in northern Thailand, saying he should stick to business.

"We have enough as it is. We don't need to go into politics. People who go into politics can't let go of the prestige. He is obsessed by it."

Interesting insights from someone who has known him his whole life.

.

[Boater]

i fear the shit may hit the fan next week....

[givenall]

Where else but in Thailand the so called free election isdominated by a corrupt politicians and his gangs, which work so hard to buy theelection.

So I say to Thailand citizen do pretend you have free and fairelection and admit is all about money and move on

[MILT]

I still believe that the outcome of this election will be Dems. I just get a feeling that because the Dems supporters are not out in mass, like the reds and not really bothering with poll results that does not mean the numbers are below the supporters of Thaskin. However with that said in just a few days we will see who emerges the victor, With the reds already stating that if they lose the streets will be again full of discontented Thaskin supporters. Also if by chance they do win, then other groups will cry foul when PTP maneuvers to bring Thaskin back. no matter what the results. Sad Sad times here in the Kingdom

[MILT]

"We have enough as it is. We don't need to go into politics. People who go into politics can't let go of the prestige. He is obsessed by it."

I can totally relate to his Aunt. I have a brother in-law who is a un-corruptable un-partial sitting judge who has been approached time and time again to join the political fray. When asking for the family blessing he has never recieved the families blessing to join. They tell him that if he chooses to join politics he will either become corrupt or dead.

[Ricardo]

"The courts reversed the results of the last two polls"

Agreed about April-2006, where the result was annulled by the Electoral-Commission, but when was the second time that the courts reversed anything ? They merely dissolved one party, but certainly did not reverse the result itself, of the December-2007 election.

"have won the most seats in the past four elections"

Perhaps technically true of December-2007, but doesn't quite convey that PPP still had a minority rather than an overall-majority of seats, or that the proportional (one-man one-vote) result was level-pegging with the other large minority-party.

And he returned from the USA to a couple more jobs in the police, so it's a minor error to say that he "gave up a brief career with the police to study in the United States" ?

[rixalex]

I still believe that the outcome of this election will be Dems. I just get a feeling that because the Dems supporters are not out in mass, like the reds and not really bothering with poll results that does not mean the numbers are below the supporters of Thaskin.

I feel this way too. I think some of the poll results have led certain people to rush to hasty conclusions. Let's not forget that even supposing that the polls are accurate, an awful lot of people in them remain undecided.

The one and only thing i think we can be certain of, it will be close. These people predicting landslides i think have let their emotions carry them away.

[Who, me ?]

i fear the shit may hit the fan next week....

Care to elaborate?

[lazygourmet]

I still believe that the outcome of this election will be Dems. I just get a feeling that because the Dems supporters are not out in mass, like the reds and not really bothering with poll results that does not mean the numbers are below the supporters of Thaskin.

I feel this way too. I think some of the poll results have led certain people to rush to hasty conclusions. Let's not forget that even supposing that the polls are accurate, an awful lot of people in them remain undecided.

The one and only thing i think we can be certain of, it will be close. These people predicting landslides i think have let their emotions carry them away.

+1

Fingers kept crossed...

[jdinasia]

I still believe that the outcome of this election will be Dems. I just get a feeling that because the Dems supporters are not out in mass, like the reds and not really bothering with poll results that does not mean the numbers are below the supporters of Thaskin.

I feel this way too. I think some of the poll results have led certain people to rush to hasty conclusions. Let's not forget that even supposing that the polls are accurate, an awful lot of people in them remain undecided.

The one and only thing i think we can be certain of, it will be close. These people predicting landslides i think have let their emotions carry them away.

I think it will be a squeaker as well. That is strictly opinion. The Dems were only expecting 3000 people at the rally last Thus. The US Embassy (I think) suggested 5000 would be there. Estimates were 17,000 --- and that with the fear of violence that was promoted by the reds (Nutthawut being one that said he had been told that there WOULD be violence.... perhaps he was just trying to scare people from going!)

I could be shocked by the elections (if either major party gets a majority I WILL be shocked!) The first meeting of parliament should be interesting.

[RickBradford]

I see Peua Thai with 205-230, Democrat 175-200, so Yinglak gets first shot at forming a government with a majority.

If they're up near 230, they might be able to twist a few arms and get over the line. And then the 'khee' hits the 'pat-lom'.

If they're down at 205, it may be harder, and the Dems get back in. And then the 'khee' hits the 'pat-lom'.....

[landofthefree]

I still believe that the outcome of this election will be Dems. I just get a feeling that because the Dems supporters are not out in mass, like the reds and not really bothering with poll results that does not mean the numbers are below the supporters of Thaskin.

I feel this way too. I think some of the poll results have led certain people to rush to hasty conclusions. Let's not forget that even supposing that the polls are accurate, an awful lot of people in them remain undecided.

The one and only thing i think we can be certain of, it will be close. These people predicting landslides i think have let their emotions carry them away.

Utter nonsense PheuThai are going to win with a huge majority as everyone knows. Speak to me on Monday if I am wrong.

[jdinasia]

I still believe that the outcome of this election will be Dems. I just get a feeling that because the Dems supporters are not out in mass, like the reds and not really bothering with poll results that does not mean the numbers are below the supporters of Thaskin.

I feel this way too. I think some of the poll results have led certain people to rush to hasty conclusions. Let's not forget that even supposing that the polls are accurate, an awful lot of people in them remain undecided.

The one and only thing i think we can be certain of, it will be close. These people predicting landslides i think have let their emotions carry them away.

Utter nonsense PheuThai are going to win with a huge majority as everyone knows. Speak to me on Monday if I am wrong.

Just so we are clear ---- could you please define "a huge majority"?

[landofthefree]

I still believe that the outcome of this election will be Dems. I just get a feeling that because the Dems supporters are not out in mass, like the reds and not really bothering with poll results that does not mean the numbers are below the supporters of Thaskin.

I feel this way too. I think some of the poll results have led certain people to rush to hasty conclusions. Let's not forget that even supposing that the polls are accurate, an awful lot of people in them remain undecided.

The one and only thing i think we can be certain of, it will be close. These people predicting landslides i think have let their emotions carry them away.

Utter nonsense PheuThai are going to win with a huge majority as everyone knows. Speak to me on Monday if I am wrong.

Just so we are clear ---- could you please define "a huge majority"?

You will know when you see it on Monday

[jdinasia]

I guess the answer is "no" you cannot define a "huge majority".

OK .. a simple majority would be PTP winning 251 of the total seats available in parliament on its own. I can only assume that a "huge majority" would mean something like the 2005 TRT victory which put Thaksin beyond censure. Is this what you mean?

I don't expect either major party to win even a simple majority.

[whybother]

Utter nonsense PheuThai are going to win with a huge majority as everyone knows. Speak to me on Monday if I am wrong.

I look forward to speaking to you on Monday.

[rixalex]

I feel this way too. I think some of the poll results have led certain people to rush to hasty conclusions. Let's not forget that even supposing that the polls are accurate, an awful lot of people in them remain undecided.

The one and only thing i think we can be certain of, it will be close. These people predicting landslides i think have let their emotions carry them away.

Utter nonsense PheuThai are going to win with a huge majority as everyone knows. Speak to me on Monday if I am wrong.

As i said, some people seem to have got carried away with their emotions. My guess is these are the people living in certain heartlands, where all they hear day after day is of a united love for one person or one party. Perhaps living in a bubble such as this it is hard to comprehend the feeling of the nation as a whole. Whilst based in Bangkok, i travel round quite a bit, and generally find a fairly even three-way split between the Dem supporters, the PTP supporters and the undecided slash bored with all this crap group, and that is how i think the election will play out.

Landofthefree, do you live in red heartland?

[relidiousenut]

I feel this way too. I think some of the poll results have led certain people to rush to hasty conclusions. Let's not forget that even supposing that the polls are accurate, an awful lot of people in them remain undecided.

The one and only thing i think we can be certain of, it will be close. These people predicting landslides i think have let their emotions carry them away.

Utter nonsense PheuThai are going to win with a huge majority as everyone knows. Speak to me on Monday if I am wrong.

As i said, some people seem to have got carried away with their emotions. My guess is these are the people living in certain heartlands, where all they hear day after day is of a united love for one person or one party. Perhaps living in a bubble such as this it is hard to comprehend the feeling of the nation as a whole. Whilst based in Bangkok, i travel round quite a bit, and generally find a fairly even three-way split between the Dem supporters, the PTP supporters and the undecided slash bored with all this crap group, and that is how i think the election will play out.

Landofthefree, do you live in red heartland?

If you have done your own survey in Bangkok, please publish the results, so that it can be compared to the other survey polls

Living in Northern Thailand does not classify one as being Red,

But those that live in the North can listen to the voice of the ordinary (not terrorist) people, who seem to support Taksin. You can not class them as terrorist just because they do not think your way

Most Farang up here are quite neutral, even though they hear the voice of the locals.

Are all Farang living in Bangkok or Pataya, sex maniacs? I think not

[myfriendu]

I still believe that the outcome of this election will be Dems. I just get a feeling that because the Dems supporters are not out in mass, like the reds and not really bothering with poll results that does not mean the numbers are below the supporters of Thaskin.

I feel this way too. I think some of the poll results have led certain people to rush to hasty conclusions. Let's not forget that even supposing that the polls are accurate, an awful lot of people in them remain undecided.

The one and only thing i think we can be certain of, it will be close. These people predicting landslides i think have let their emotions carry them away.

Utter nonsense PheuThai are going to win with a huge majority as everyone knows. Speak to me on Monday if I am wrong.

utter crap pt wont get 30 seats more than dems,so wont be able to form next govt.speak monday

[rixalex]

If you have done your own survey in Bangkok, please publish the results, so that it can be compared to the other survey polls

Who said anything about doing surveys? I speak to people i meet in daily life. I also look at past election results. That's how i come to my conclusions / predictions. Do yours differ? Do you think, like landofthefree, that there will be a landslide?

Living in Northern Thailand does not classify one as being Red,

I wasn't suggesting it did. Just trying to figure out why somebody would come up with the landslide prediction, and all i could think was getting caught up in some sort of "fever".

But those that live in the North can listen to the voice of the ordinary (not terrorist) people, who seem to support Taksin. You can not class them as terrorist just because they do not think your way

I don't class them as terrorists but i do class them as supporters of a terrorist group.

[SomTumTiger]

If you have done your own survey in Bangkok, please publish the results, so that it can be compared to the other survey polls

Living in Northern Thailand does not classify one as being Red,

But those that live in the North can listen to the voice of the ordinary (not terrorist) people, who seem to support Taksin. You can not class them as terrorist just because they do not think your way

Most Farang up here are quite neutral, even though they hear the voice of the locals.

Are all Farang living in Bangkok or Pataya, sex maniacs? I think not

Only one poll actually counts, and it happens on Sunday. We will know then how close it is or not. But i suspect that if it is closer than you like, you will have disappeared already. lol Me, I don't care either way, I just hope Chuwit wins himself a seat!

[Misterwhisper]

"We have enough as it is. We don't need to go into politics. People who go into politics can't let go of the prestige. He is obsessed by it."

Finally someone who says it as it is. Thank you, Auntie Taowan!

[Chewbacka]

I think that Puea Thai will get a lot less votes than they should due to the fact that the font size of the Puea Thai candidate on the voting form is considerably smaller than the other candidates.

I wonder how that happened..........

Edited June 29, 2011 by Chewbacka

[slapout]

My unofficial source of a independent fact finding poll in Chiang Mai is a 16 year veteran of the local tuk tuk brigade. He figures only a 30% Thaksin following in this area. I was surprised with his assessment but did note the red flag display has dwindled down to a like number, observed around the old city.

I thought it surprising that (what was described as Thaksin's aunt) made a public statement against his return to political power.

Guess election day will determine the majority of the peoples choice, then again maybe not.

If my experience in getting directions in Thailand, from Thai's, is any indication of them speaking from real knowledge, I will pass on the polls, political statements/innuendo, etc.

[Buchholz]

The first meeting of parliament should be interesting.

The first House session being called to order is also when Parliamentary immunity begins for 10 or so Red Shirt Leaders that will be taking their seats.

.

[Buchholz]

I think that Puea Thai will get a lot less votes than they should due to the fact that the font size of the Puea Thai candidate on the voting form is considerably smaller than the other candidates.

I wonder how that happened..........

They submitted a cockamamie logo which varied from their usual logo in its exceptionally long horizontal width.

.

[Buchholz]

"We have enough as it is. We don't need to go into politics. People who go into politics can't let go of the prestige. He is obsessed by it."

Finally someone who says it as it is. Thank you, Auntie Taowan!

That was very reminiscent of Jatuporn's own mother admonishing him for his wayward actions.... even before the further escalations of May Mayhem 2010.

.

[whybother]

I think that Puea Thai will get a lot less votes than they should due to the fact that the font size of the Puea Thai candidate on the voting form is considerably smaller than the other candidates.

I wonder how that happened..........

I would think that PTP voters will be able to read the number "1".

[a99az]

Just asked my wife, who she will vote fore this week end. Now she has lived in Europe and has seen what the world looks like out side of Thailand. If the country all vote like her, it's on the toss of a coin.