Fugitive Ex-Leader Thaksin Dominates Thai Election

[hammered]

Havent bothered commenting on this election so far, but for what it is worth. I think PTP will win and could well do with an overall majority maybe even a big one if leaked democrat comments that they will be lucky to win 11 seats in BKK are true. Whatever the outcome, it is imperative it is accepted or things are going to end up really bad.

The Democrat campaign has been truly woeful on top of their obvious problems in certain regions with lots of voters. In some presumed non-red areas I sense a greater support for the red side than 4 years ago and even a couple of years ago. There are also a lot, a real lot of people who are sick of generals telling them what to do. I dont think a coup would be a very good reaction to an election going the way the army dont want

If PTP do win I hope they stick with Yingluck as PM and dont go for some dodgy establishment acceptable figure with no mandate. Yingluck has whipped Abhisit's ass in this election

[relidiousenut]

If you have done your own survey in Bangkok, please publish the results, so that it can be compared to the other survey polls

Living in Northern Thailand does not classify one as being Red,

But those that live in the North can listen to the voice of the ordinary (not terrorist) people, who seem to support Taksin. You can not class them as terrorist just because they do not think your way

Most Farang up here are quite neutral, even though they hear the voice of the locals.

Are all Farang living in Bangkok or Pataya, sex maniacs? I think not

Only one poll actually counts, and it happens on Sunday. We will know then how close it is or not. But i suspect that if it is closer than you like, you will have disappeared already. lol Me, I don't care either way, I just hope Chuwit wins himself a seat!

No reason to disappear, I like yourself do not care one way or the other, I except the posters explanation, it was just reading to me that all Farang living North are Taksin supporters, not at all, most as I said are neutral

Edited June 29, 2011 by soundman
Reset font to default for readability. Post in default font pls.

[exbelg]

the bag of the devil is never full as they say in my home country...

rich people in power, only wants, more power, more money

[KRS1]

Yingluck is NOT qualified to run the government....anyone who thinks she is not in collaboration with her brother Thaksin to reenter the country and retrieve his billion or so baht needs to wake up.

Lets not forget he is a fugitve for a reason and literally hiding in another country. There are some countries that will not even allow him entry.

He is a criminal, eventhough a very rich one, he is still a criminal. - and his sister is not qualified to be prime minister, might as well just elect a noodle vendor.

[hammered]

Yingluck is NOT qualified to run the government....anyone who thinks she is not in collaboration with her brother Thaksin to reenter the country and retrieve his billion or so baht needs to wake up.

Lets not forget he is a fugitve for a reason and literally hiding in another country. There are some countries that will not even allow him entry.

He is a criminal, eventhough a very rich one, he is still a criminal. - and his sister is not qualified to be prime minister, might as well just elect a noodle vendor.

While I may agree with you on qualifications and motivations, if the PTP and Yingluck are selected by the people's vote then you cant argue. Many thought Banharn was completely unqualified, useless and far too dim to be PM and yet it wasnt a problem and Yingluck is probably a lot brighter than him. People dont have to vote for those qualified to do the job, they can vote for anyone they like to do it. And most of those voting PTP will know full well Thaksin is pulling the strings. The saying goes Thaksin thinks, Pheua Thai does... It is no secret

The reality now is that the establishment have had many years and power to smash up, buy out or intimidate the Thaksin/red machine and have failed. They have also had many years to turn the Dems into a mighty election winning machine but it looks that project has failed too. Along with this virtually every check and balance organization lies discredited in the eyes of many. The outcome of this election has to be accepted. If it doesnt go the way, you or I or anyone else likes that is irrelevant. Thailand needs to move on

[cooperspale]

i fear the shit may hit the fan next week....

Care to elaborate?

There is a fan and shit is going to hit it. What more do you want to know?

[rixalex]

No reason to disappear, I like yourself do not care one way or the other, I except the posters explanation, it was just reading to me that all Farang living North are Taksin supporters, not at all, most as I said are neutral

From where in my comments did you get any connection with the north? I simply wondered whether the poster who was predicting a massive landslide for the PTP might be living in red heartland. Pockets of red heartland dotted all over the place. Concentrated in the North and North East, but not exclusive to these areas. Anyway, the poster in question has yet to reply.

As have you to my question of what you feel the outcome will be. Do you go along with the landslide idea?

[renaissanc]

I think that the result will be a win for PT. Then, when the PT tries to get other parties to join it to form a government, those parties will receive a visit or a phone call telling them not to do so. The Winner, and the party which has the honour of dealing with mass demonstrations and continuous violence ... the Democrats! Thanks to Phumjai Thai's large number of seats.

[rixalex]

The outcome of this election has to be accepted. If it doesnt go the way, you or I or anyone else likes that is irrelevant. Thailand needs to move on

Absolutely yes, the election result must be accepted. I think if PTP win, as you predict, it will be, and if PTP get on with the job of running the country, Thailand will move on. If on the other hand they become totally preoccupied with undoing perceived injustices concerning their leader, this will not be accepted, and nor i think should it.

Do you think that a win for PTP should mean everyone lies down and accepts whatever meddling of the judiciary they so decide upon?

[Chewbacka]

I think that Puea Thai will get a lot less votes than they should due to the fact that the font size of the Puea Thai candidate on the voting form is considerably smaller than the other candidates.

I wonder how that happened..........

They submitted a cockamamie logo which varied from their usual logo in its exceptionally long horizontal width.

.

Do us a favour and do not simply reproduce the spin. I suppose the printers have no "print preview"??

[rixalex]

I think that the result will be a win for PT. Then, when the PT tries to get other parties to join it to form a government, those parties will receive a visit or a phone call telling them not to do so. The Winner, and the party which has the honour of dealing with mass demonstrations and continuous violence ... the Democrats! Thanks to Phumjai Thai's large number of seats.

Whether or not it is PTP or the Dems who manage to cobble together a coalition, you can be sure that the horse-trading that came before it, will be ugly. Let's not delude ourselves that if the PTP form a coalition, it will be achieved because of a shared vision amongst the parties involved to make the country a better place. It will be achieved because the parties involved like the "incentives" being dangled under their noses.

[Chewbacka]

I think that Puea Thai will get a lot less votes than they should due to the fact that the font size of the Puea Thai candidate on the voting form is considerably smaller than the other candidates.

I wonder how that happened..........

I would think that PTP voters will be able to read the number "1".

As far as I am aware the Puea Thai candidates are not in first position at the top of the list (which you would have through they would be).

Another piece of suspect foul play. But we all knew that anyway.

[relidiousenut]

No reason to disappear, I like yourself do not care one way or the other, I except the posters explanation, it was just reading to me that all Farang living North are Taksin supporters, not at all, most as I said are neutral

From where in my comments did you get any connection with the north? I simply wondered whether the poster who was predicting a massive landslide for the PTP might be living in red heartland. Pockets of red heartland dotted all over the place. Concentrated in the North and North East, but not exclusive to these areas. Anyway, the poster in question has yet to reply.

As have you to my question of what you feel the outcome will be. Do you go along with the landslide idea?

I do not know what the outcome will be, I try to stay out of politics, I have my own opinions but that is all, I can not predict one way or the other. All I can say is that whoever wins, I wish for a peaceful Thailand with no political mayhem like we have seen for a long time

[rubl]

I think that Puea Thai will get a lot less votes than they should due to the fact that the font size of the Puea Thai candidate on the voting form is considerably smaller than the other candidates.

I wonder how that happened..........

They submitted a cockamamie logo which varied from their usual logo in its exceptionally long horizontal width..

Do us a favour and do not simply reproduce the spin. I suppose the printers have no "print preview"??

The printers print an Election Ballot according to rules layed-out in the Election Laws. They do not have any say over the logos parties want to have printed. One may wonder if the printers did a quick check with PTP 'are you sure?', but strictly speaking even that could be seen as undue interference.

After the elections the Election Commission may want to discuss this issue with parties and come up with some guidelines for logos, just like the exact size of Election Posters

Edited June 29, 2011 by rubl

[hammered]

The outcome of this election has to be accepted. If it doesnt go the way, you or I or anyone else likes that is irrelevant. Thailand needs to move on

Absolutely yes, the election result must be accepted. I think if PTP win, as you predict, it will be, and if PTP get on with the job of running the country, Thailand will move on. If on the other hand they become totally preoccupied with undoing perceived injustices concerning their leader, this will not be accepted, and nor i think should it.

Do you think that a win for PTP should mean everyone lies down and accepts whatever meddling of the judiciary they so decide upon?

I dont have much time for PTP to be honest, but also to be honest if they push an amnesty for Thaksin it is something their voters want. If they win, there is little that can be done about any amnesty push as long as it is constitutional. And also to be honest, I think all political sides have already shown they dont mind a little meddling with things. And of course Abhisit and a few others could find themselves on the wrong side of the court if they lose power and as intimated by several democrats they dont expect the establishment to go out of their way to help him.

[whybother]

I think that Puea Thai will get a lot less votes than they should due to the fact that the font size of the Puea Thai candidate on the voting form is considerably smaller than the other candidates.

I wonder how that happened..........

I would think that PTP voters will be able to read the number "1".

As far as I am aware the Puea Thai candidates are not in first position at the top of the list (which you would have through they would be).

Another piece of suspect foul play. But we all knew that anyway.

The parties are shown in numerical order.

It seems that some people like conspiracy theories. But we all knew that anyway.

[Pi Sek]

Havent bothered commenting on this election so far, but for what it is worth. I think PTP will win and could well do with an overall majority maybe even a big one if leaked democrat comments that they will be lucky to win 11 seats in BKK are true. Whatever the outcome, it is imperative it is accepted or things are going to end up really bad.

The Democrat campaign has been truly woeful on top of their obvious problems in certain regions with lots of voters. In some presumed non-red areas I sense a greater support for the red side than 4 years ago and even a couple of years ago. There are also a lot, a real lot of people who are sick of generals telling them what to do. I dont think a coup would be a very good reaction to an election going the way the army dont want

If PTP do win I hope they stick with Yingluck as PM and dont go for some dodgy establishment acceptable figure with no mandate. Yingluck has whipped Abhisit's ass in this election

I agree with most of what you have said. I think PT will "win" the election (they will get the most votes), although I don't think they will get an outright majority. I think the next government will be a coalition and the really important party will be Chart Thai Pattana. I have no idea what they're going to do but I suspect that, if PT needs them, they will join PT to tip the balance. Banharn & Co will most likely be set for life when that happens, as if they weren't already.

The Democrat campaign has not been good, you are right, from the posters to the rallies to the press statements. I went to a Democrat rally in Phuket a few weeks ago and I really wasn't impressed with anything that was said by anyone except Abhisit himself. Suthep's entire speech focussed on not letting murderers/arsonists/terrorists get into government - which is a valid point to bring up but he took it way too far in my opinion, certainly it wasn't in line with any idea of reconciliation. The only other relevant point he made was that PT had not allowed the Dems to work efficiently while in office, which I wholeheartedly agree with.

On the other hand, PT's campaign has been equally as woeful in my opinion. They have come up with some ideas, some of which will be incredibly harmful to the country (if they had any intention of following through with their policies, which I'm not sure about), with absolutely no plan of execution. What they have done well on is making Yinglak look as grass-roots as possible, which I'm sure even her fans will agree is nowhere close to the truth.

I don't think there is any chance of anyone other than Yinglak becoming Prime Minister if Peua Thai wins - unless until Thaksin orders her to step aside for him.

If truth be told, if I were a Thai voter I would probably vote Democrats simply because I would find Thaksin's possible return with impunity as an unacceptable scenario. However, Abhisit (who I think is great) is not the Democrat Party - a number of their MPs are particularly undesirable people - therefore I'd be considering a "No Vote" in protest of not being given any decent options, as is the case with a small number of people that I know who have been TRT-PPP-PTP supporters in the past. If Peua Thai could come up with a workable plan for their policies, and had not adopted the "Thaksin thinks, Peua Thai acts" slogan and Thaksin's choice of PM candidate had been overruled by the party (as I feel it should have been on the grounds of her lack of experience), I wouldn't be so against them. At the end of the day, I agree with one of the common sentiments that a vote for PT is a vote for corruption, cronyism and non-adherance to the Law. However, not all Thais value these as important, or even as faults.

Also very poignant in your post is that "Whatever the outcome, it is imperative it is accepted or things are going to end up really bad". However, I honestly don't think this will be the case, unfortunately. There are LOTS of people on both sides (I've met dozens anyway, without looking for them) getting ready to cause a commotion if things don't go the way of their preferred party. I don't think anything will immediately happen but, if a party gets in and starts playing with the judiciary/military/constitution/whatever (that goes for both the big parties), we might well see some trouble. I don't think a military coup will happen (there would be too much popular objection), but I wouldn't write off an "irregularity" or "administrational error" (there are probably already plenty of examples for every party) leading to the disbandment of PT, under pressure from some very large street protests.

I do hope I'm wrong and am just being a paranoid naysaying expat.

[jayboy]

The outcome of this election has to be accepted. If it doesnt go the way, you or I or anyone else likes that is irrelevant. Thailand needs to move on

Absolutely yes, the election result must be accepted. I think if PTP win, as you predict, it will be, and if PTP get on with the job of running the country, Thailand will move on. If on the other hand they become totally preoccupied with undoing perceived injustices concerning their leader, this will not be accepted, and nor i think should it.

Do you think that a win for PTP should mean everyone lies down and accepts whatever meddling of the judiciary they so decide upon?

I dont have much time for PTP to be honest, but also to be honest if they push an amnesty for Thaksin it is something their voters want. If they win, there is little that can be done about any amnesty push as long as it is constitutional. And also to be honest, I think all political sides have already shown they dont mind a little meddling with things. And of course Abhisit and a few others could find themselves on the wrong side of the court if they lose power and as intimated by several democrats they dont expect the establishment to go out of their way to help him.

Hammered

You should see Crispin's latest at AT.Can't link for the usual reasons.

[millwall_fan]

I guess the answer is "no" you cannot define a "huge majority".

OK .. a simple majority would be PTP winning 251 of the total seats available in parliament on its own. I can only assume that a "huge majority" would mean something like the 2005 TRT victory which put Thaksin beyond censure. Is this what you mean?

I don't expect either major party to win even a simple majority.

There's no way there'll be huge majority: the military saw to that in their deeply flawed 2007 constitution, If the election had been fought under the 1999 constitution PT would win by a much wider margin. The 99 constitution was agreed by all parties and was carefully thought out, whereas the 07 constitution had only one purpose: Stop Thaksin

[anterian]

My unofficial poll indicates that people are more worried about what the army will do if the PT forms the next government, than any other outcome.

[tingtongfarang]

Havent bothered commenting on this election so far, but for what it is worth. I think PTP will win and could well do with an overall majority maybe even a big one if leaked democrat comments that they will be lucky to win 11 seats in BKK are true. Whatever the outcome, it is imperative it is accepted or things are going to end up really bad.

The Democrat campaign has been truly woeful on top of their obvious problems in certain regions with lots of voters. In some presumed non-red areas I sense a greater support for the red side than 4 years ago and even a couple of years ago. There are also a lot, a real lot of people who are sick of generals telling them what to do. I dont think a coup would be a very good reaction to an election going the way the army dont want

If PTP do win I hope they stick with Yingluck as PM and dont go for some dodgy establishment acceptable figure with no mandate. Yingluck has whipped Abhisit's ass in this election

I agree with most of what you have said. I think PT will "win" the election (they will get the most votes), although I don't think they will get an outright majority. I think the next government will be a coalition and the really important party will be Chart Thai Pattana. I have no idea what they're going to do but I suspect that, if PT needs them, they will join PT to tip the balance. Banharn & Co will most likely be set for life when that happens, as if they weren't already.

The Democrat campaign has not been good, you are right, from the posters to the rallies to the press statements. I went to a Democrat rally in Phuket a few weeks ago and I really wasn't impressed with anything that was said by anyone except Abhisit himself. Suthep's entire speech focussed on not letting murderers/arsonists/terrorists get into government - which is a valid point to bring up but he took it way too far in my opinion, certainly it wasn't in line with any idea of reconciliation. The only other relevant point he made was that PT had not allowed the Dems to work efficiently while in office, which I wholeheartedly agree with.

On the other hand, PT's campaign has been equally as woeful in my opinion. They have come up with some ideas, some of which will be incredibly harmful to the country (if they had any intention of following through with their policies, which I'm not sure about), with absolutely no plan of execution. What they have done well on is making Yinglak look as grass-roots as possible, which I'm sure even her fans will agree is nowhere close to the truth.

I don't think there is any chance of anyone other than Yinglak becoming Prime Minister if Peua Thai wins - unless until Thaksin orders her to step aside for him.

If truth be told, if I were a Thai voter I would probably vote Democrats simply because I would find Thaksin's possible return with impunity as an unacceptable scenario. However, Abhisit (who I think is great) is not the Democrat Party - a number of their MPs are particularly undesirable people - therefore I'd be considering a "No Vote" in protest of not being given any decent options, as is the case with a small number of people that I know who have been TRT-PPP-PTP supporters in the past. If Peua Thai could come up with a workable plan for their policies, and had not adopted the "Thaksin thinks, Peua Thai acts" slogan and Thaksin's choice of PM candidate had been overruled by the party (as I feel it should have been on the grounds of her lack of experience), I wouldn't be so against them. At the end of the day, I agree with one of the common sentiments that a vote for PT is a vote for corruption, cronyism and non-adherance to the Law. However, not all Thais value these as important, or even as faults.

Also very poignant in your post is that "Whatever the outcome, it is imperative it is accepted or things are going to end up really bad". However, I honestly don't think this will be the case, unfortunately. There are LOTS of people on both sides (I've met dozens anyway, without looking for them) getting ready to cause a commotion if things don't go the way of their preferred party. I don't think anything will immediately happen but, if a party gets in and starts playing with the judiciary/military/constitution/whatever (that goes for both the big parties), we might well see some trouble. I don't think a military coup will happen (there would be too much popular objection), but I wouldn't write off an "irregularity" or "administrational error" (there are probably already plenty of examples for every party) leading to the disbandment of PT, under pressure from some very large street protests.

I do hope I'm wrong and am just being a paranoid naysaying expat.

Your correct but to be honest also almost all of those scenarios scare me.

[Siripon]

On Sorayut's 15 minute programme tonight on Channel 3 at 5.45,he invited Yinglak for an interview. She refused and sent Plodprasop (again). Plodprasop said she had a prior engagement to meet the people, Sorayut said she could reach far more people on TV.

If she becomes PM she will surely be the fittest Thai PM in history as she runs away from any searching question.

[Old Man River]

On Sorayut's 15 minute programme tonight on Channel 3 at 5.45,he invited Yinglak for an interview. She refused and sent Plodprasop (again). Plodprasop said she had a prior engagement to meet the people, Sorayut said she could reach far more people on TV.

If she becomes PM she will surely be the fittest Thai PM in history as she runs away from any searching question.

Her ability to avoid interviews reminds me a bit of Sarah Palin, although eventually the press cornered Palin. I remember Thaksin was also adept at avoiding direct interviews etc., so we can be sure that Yingluk is being well schooled in how to handle the media.

[Skywalker69]

Yingluck is NOT qualified to run the government....anyone who thinks she is not in collaboration with her brother Thaksin to reenter the country and retrieve his billion or so baht needs to wake up.

Lets not forget he is a fugitve for a reason and literally hiding in another country. There are some countries that will not even allow him entry.

He is a criminal, eventhough a very rich one, he is still a criminal. - and his sister is not qualified to be prime minister, might as well just elect a noodle vendor.

I totally agree!

Why is she avoiding a debate with Khun Abhisit? Because she know she will lose, by the way with her bad english one wonder how she could get a degree from a USA Univ.

[nod]

Yingluck is NOT qualified to run the government....anyone who thinks she is not in collaboration with her brother Thaksin to reenter the country and retrieve his billion or so baht needs to wake up.

Lets not forget he is a fugitve for a reason and literally hiding in another country. There are some countries that will not even allow him entry.

He is a criminal, eventhough a very rich one, he is still a criminal. - and his sister is not qualified to be prime minister, might as well just elect a noodle vendor.

You should be more cautious! Mr Thaksin was in fact a legally elected (by a vast majority) Prime Minister ousted by a coup, and yes he has been denied entry by many countries. Bizarre really considering most of them are run by legally elected Governments! There then followed a period of out of control "mob rule" in Thailand the damage to Thailand caused was clear for all to see!

You might wish to consider how he will be feeling about the residents from those countries (that turned their backs on him ) living in Thailand if his interests return to power.

Think about that before you let your mouth run away with you.

Before you come back with the "corruption" argument, start forming a list of S E Asian premiers that did not in some way benefit financially from being in power.

I for one was disappointed with the way Mr Thaksin was treated by the gutless British Government of the time and I look forward to hearing their bumbling rants if his interests return to power again.

[rubl]

You should be more cautious! Mr Thaksin was in fact a legally elected (by a vast majority) Prime Minister ousted by a coup, and yes he has been denied entry by many countries. Bizarre really considering most of them are run by legally elected Governments! There then followed a period of out of control "mob rule" in Thailand the damage to Thailand caused was clear for all to see!

You might wish to consider how he will be feeling about the residents from those countries (that turned their backs on him ) living in Thailand if his interests return to power.

Think about that before you let your mouth run away with you.

Before you come back with the "corruption" argument, start forming a list of S E Asian premiers that did not in some way benefit financially from being in power.

I for one was disappointed with the way Mr Thaksin was treated by the gutless British Government of the time and I look forward to hearing their bumbling rants if his interests return to power again.

K. Thaksin has been a legally elected MP and by other MP's a legally elected PM. At the time of the coup he was a self-appointed caretaker PM who was trying to remove checks and balances to make sure next elections he would make good on his promise 'we'll rule for twenty years'.

As for the gutless British Government, a fugitive seeking asylum is supposed to refrain from any actions which may be embarrassing, or otherwise unwise. K. Thaksin has gone on record as 'we didn't seek asylum', 'we did seek asylum' and of course 'I will leave politics' while still meddling in Thai politics. Even searching it's about even whether k. Thaksin withdrew his asylum request or was simply asked to leave the country.

Lastly let me say I really hope 'his interests' will not return to power. 'By the people and for the people' is not the same as 'one man, one party, no compromise'

[chooka]

i fear the shit may hit the fan next week....

Why do you say that? Do you think the yellows will go on a rampage?

[nod]

You should be more cautious! Mr Thaksin was in fact a legally elected (by a vast majority) Prime Minister ousted by a coup, and yes he has been denied entry by many countries. Bizarre really considering most of them are run by legally elected Governments! There then followed a period of out of control "mob rule" in Thailand the damage to Thailand caused was clear for all to see!

You might wish to consider how he will be feeling about the residents from those countries (that turned their backs on him ) living in Thailand if his interests return to power.

Think about that before you let your mouth run away with you.

Before you come back with the "corruption" argument, start forming a list of S E Asian premiers that did not in some way benefit financially from being in power.

I for one was disappointed with the way Mr Thaksin was treated by the gutless British Government of the time and I look forward to hearing their bumbling rants if his interests return to power again.

K. Thaksin has been a legally elected MP and by other MP's a legally elected PM. At the time of the coup he was a self-appointed caretaker PM who was trying to remove checks and balances to make sure next elections he would make good on his promise 'we'll rule for twenty years'.

As for the gutless British Government, a fugitive seeking asylum is supposed to refrain from any actions which may be embarrassing, or otherwise unwise. K. Thaksin has gone on record as 'we didn't seek asylum', 'we did seek asylum' and of course 'I will leave politics' while still meddling in Thai politics. Even searching it's about even whether k. Thaksin withdrew his asylum request or was simply asked to leave the country.

Lastly let me say I really hope 'his interests' will not return to power. 'By the people and for the people' is not the same as 'one man, one party, no compromise'

I strongly value everybody's right to their own opinion whether they concur with mine or not. I'm sure Mr Thaksin has both our IP addresses! Ha ha!

Cheers.

[gemini81]

my ex-private company asked for transcripts from a mr thaksin shinawatra from E. Kentucky U as an applicant for a job and we got a reply that there is no such record on file. One conclusion is loans not repaid, which I highly doubt, the other is a fraudster, a crook.

This man wants to be the sole leader in this place and has no respect for anyone but his own dynasty and lineage. Read the underground news not yet censored on their motives.

If one got a doctorate from his shinawatra university, they still would not know how to be such a greedy crook let still get the farmers to like you. Maybe you would need to get a PhD in how to show people only what they GET and teach them to ignore what is TAKEN and where it all COMES FROM.

[KeyserSoze01]

i fear the shit may hit the fan next week....

Care to elaborate?

What, you need an 8 X 10 glossy photo with annotations as to <deleted> is going to happen?