Thai Army Chief Brushes Aside Coup Rumor

[Thai at Heart]

Anand Panyarachun (ex Prime Minister of Thailand) was asked on BBC Hard Talk if the Military would stage another coup if Pheu Thai won.

He said "he didn't think so".

True, but in answering the question twice by Hardtalk's Stephen Sackur, he said he was "hopeful" the army wouldn't and was "confident" the army wouldn't.Well which is it asked Sackur, "confident" and "hopeful" have different meanings.Clearly Anand was not used to being asked difficult questions by reporters and put on a generally lacklustre performance,far outshone by Abhisit and Sulak who were also interviewed in the BBC Hardtalk series.Disappointing because in some ways Anand is a great man and has long been one of my heroes.He also tried to be patronising and dismissive of Sackur's understanding of Thailand's uniqueness, always an indicator of a Thai being on the losing side of an argument.It doesn't really work when dealing with a well briefed and highly intelligent journalist like Sackur.And yet one can't help liking and admiring Anand.His heart is in the right place: I know for a fact that when the BBC's Jonathan Head was being persecuted by military cheerleaders Anand was one of the very few prominent Thais who defended him openly.

Indeed, the "uniqueness" argument wears thin very quickly. I suppose, Thailand is unique in its ability to create a functioning, stable democracy, which would then lead to you to think, that the plan has never been to do so. I really do believe that those with the influence are not interested in giving up 1 speck of their personal power if it means fostering a stronger system of democracy.

They genuinely love the idea that anything can be ripped up, reformed, and re-presented at their beck and call.

[animatic]

'animatic' timestamp='1309493496' post='4525032'

More specifically it was the meeting in Hong Kong where Thaksin and Potjamin announced their divorce, because she had had enough of politics,and didn't want to lose ALL her holdings to back TRhaksins power plays. Aside bar to this drastic announcement was that Thaksin ALSO dissed Newin big time and favored Chalerm instead, causing Newin to lose face, and so he returned home and looked for a better deal for his voting block. Eventually this was offered and he grabbed it up.

It took no arm twisting to get him to leave Thaksin's 3rd string party for the Dems.

Contrary to the PPP / Red SHirts whining he was long before looking to go.

It took awhile, but Newin knew Thaksin was gonna screw him if he needed to, so he screwed Thaksin first. A pretty good move on his part, since his stock has gone way up. Thaksin has no loyalty while demanding total loyalty and obedience in the kow tow feudal way, but that doesn't always work. He was an arrgogant autocrat with Newin, and it came back to bie him in the political ass. Som nom na!

All very true, he wasn't getting what he wanted from Thaksin. However, do you think that Abhisit would have taken him into the coalition on the terms that he got, without a little bit of cajoling from the army? Newin and the Dems. Hardly a marriage made in heaven I would suggest.

I agree with you there. But I think Abhisit needed Korn in control of fincance immediately to stave off the world economic crash, and that seemed more important than needing to keep Newin in line down the line. I have to agree with that too. PPP had utterly dropped the ball watching the international financial picture. Abhisit had 20+ years in Thai politics; a win is a win even if it is from a sacrifice bunt and not a grand slam.

True, Korn has done a pretty good job. However, Thailand was largely unexposed to the credit default swaps, since the Banks here have basically decided to make their money by charging 20 baht to move your money around the country, and have a 3% margin of interest. It is obvious to me that the coalition was cobbled together with the approval of the army. It doesn't really matter how it was done, since it is legal under the constitution, but to deny that the army is involved in politics in Thailand goes against all the history.

What is a shame, is that the Dems have been so utterly usless at clearly articulating their ideas to the population. They really are a weird combination of two quite talented young guys Korn and Abhisit, with some regional overlords in Suthep for example, and an aging bloke with some respect, Chuan. If they could find a way to get some more youth into the mix and get away from the older generation of the party who aren't exactly spotless themselves, they really could differrentiate themselves from the rest. Unfortunately, even Mother Teresa would struggle to sell the idea that the party is going to stop corruption and modernise the country when they have someone like Suthep in their ranks.

I really can't see any other outcome than a coup within the next 6 months, maybe earlier, if the PTP don't get to be in government, it could come next week, should the reds start burning stuff.

Agreed, they really need new blood.

[animatic]

I agree with you there. But I think Abhisit needed Korn in control of fincance immediately to stave off the world economic crash, and that seemed more important than needing to keep Newin in line down the line. I have to agree with that too. PPP had utterly dropped the ball watching the international financial picture. Abhisit had 20+ years in Thai politics; a win is a win even if it is from a sacrifice bunt and not a grand slam.

A complete misreading of the Thai position in relation to the last financial crisis, specifically because after the 1997 crisis steps were taken to improve the capitalisation, governance and lending of the Thai banks.No Thai banks were exposed to the US housing market, dodgy deriviatives and frankly the sheer greed that was the downfall of Western banks, and the trigger for the crisis.Asia including Thailand was and remains in a strong position.As a point of detail it is inaccurate to blame any Thai government since 1997 for economic mismanagement.All have performed quite well and though Korn has a good record, no knowledgeable person would suggest PPP dropped the ball in relation to the international financial picture.It's not only silly and politically motivated, but betrays a lack of understanding how the Ministry of Finance and Bank of Thailand provide solid continuity and competence whatever government is in power.

It's typical of how much of the talk before the election is based on misrepresentation and partisan rehashing of events.

Occasionally one comes across an intelligent analysis of the deep deep changes in Thai society which are actually more significant than the electioneering squabbling of all sides, which will seem very dated in a few months time.The New York Times article below is a good example.

http://www.nytimes.c...1&_r=1&src=tptw

Totally ridiculous and politically motivated comments.

Tell that line of yours to K. Devakula, who was team Thaksin,

who was saying EXACTLY this in op eds, all but alternating with Korn, before PPP fell. They were both in agreement about the lack of ANY action to stave of the WORLD crisis. And that it was critical that some steps be taken. Somchai was oblivious. And though not in lock step once K. Korn was in office, K. Devakula was not more than pointing out issues to keep looking at the last few years. Both men see the bigger picture than just power struggles in Thailand.

One has to note, if one bothers to look beyond the nostrils, that NO COUNTRIES have gotten out of this unscathed. Many are on the brink of collapse. Makes no difference if Thailands investors were 'exposed to USA loans', because the fall out was far from ONLY in USA. It was a world wide crash, and affected everyone in Asia including China.

Edited July 1, 2011 by animatic

[Roadman]

Army chief General Prayut Chan-ocha has reassured that there will be no military coup after the July 3 election.

A man you can trust with your wallet......... When statements like this are made before the election, or the result beware. Bob Mugabe said the same in Zimbabwe and we have a rough idea how that went boys and girls. You think the Thai army is not going to interfere? Think again.

He is correct in saying there will be no coup after this weekends election. He knows there is a constitution in place that is acceptable, so no coup is needed in regard to who ever governs next, and that is what the current time "item" in Thailand is all about...the next few months as a party is elected and commences governance.

The committement to Pheu Thai to the current constitution then becomes a seperate "item" in time and yes a coup is back on the table as it should be. The only way to keep thieves and murderers in line until they conform is at the point of a gun.

It's a joke right? your joking yes? (quote) The only way to keep thieves and murderers in line until they conform is at the point of a gun.

Good idea to have a Military coup in the USA then, the prisons are full of all such vagabonds. Imagine tanks and military walking around New York Vagas, San Francisco, the whole dam_n place

Last time I looked the ones in the USA cities were not attacking and murdering the Army and laying seige to the centre of the city. Bangkok 2010 showed that the Army and their pointing was all that was understood. This is not US politics but the reality of what could be Thailand's fate. That's where the Army stands as the final judicator in Thailand until such time as there is a credible police force as the people's guardian. Have a good look at the candidates standing in this election. In most thai elections there are a few with good values and then the majority who are corrupt. This time around there are a whole new class - have a look at the charges and the associations. In even moderate democratic societies some of the elite of Thailands election nominees would be in chains for the rest of their life's. In lieu of the judicary and penal system being unable to make them accountable, and a non existent police force then simply the point of a gun is all they are going to understand.

[aaacorp]

If there is a coup, this time there will no have flowers on their gun...A coup would be the best thing to ignite civil war

[jayboy]

Totally ridiculous and politically motivated comments.

Tell that line of yours to K. Devakula, who was team Thaksin,

who was saying EXACTLY this in op eds, all but alternating with Korn, before PPP fell. They were both in agreement about the lack of ANY action to stave of the WORLD crisis. And that it was critical that some steps be taken. Somchai was oblivious. And though not in lock step once K. Korn was in office, K. Devakula was not more than pointing out issues to keep looking at the last few years. Both men see the bigger picture than just power struggles in Thailand.

One has to note, if one bothers to look beyond the nostrils, that NO COUNTRIES have gotten out of this unscathed. Many are on the brink of collapse. Makes no difference if Thailands investors were 'exposed to USA loans', because the fall out was far from ONLY in USA. It was a world wide crash, and affected everyone in Asia including China.

I wasn't making a comment with a political agenda, simply pointing out the excellent professionals at the BOT and MOF provide a continuity transcending whatever government is in power.The governments in Thailand since the Asian financial debacle of the late 1990's -when a great many lessons were learnt - have performed well.

It's not very clear what your rather confused comments regarding Devakula are meant to convey..that Thailand should somehow have taken steps to forestall the global financial crisis? Get real.

I never suggested that Asia was immune to the Western created crisis, simply that it was in a much stronger position and its financial institutions were much more robust.In fact Asia, including Thailand, has shrugged off its effects and - unlike the US and most of Europe (Germany being the exception) - is moving strongly forward.

[animatic]

Totally ridiculous and politically motivated comments.

Tell that line of yours to K. Devakula, who was team Thaksin,

who was saying EXACTLY this in op eds, all but alternating with Korn, before PPP fell. They were both in agreement about the lack of ANY action to stave of the WORLD crisis. And that it was critical that some steps be taken. Somchai was oblivious. And though not in lock step once K. Korn was in office, K. Devakula was not more than pointing out issues to keep looking at the last few years. Both men see the bigger picture than just power struggles in Thailand.

One has to note, if one bothers to look beyond the nostrils, that NO COUNTRIES have gotten out of this unscathed. Many are on the brink of collapse. Makes no difference if Thailands investors were 'exposed to USA loans', because the fall out was far from ONLY in USA. It was a world wide crash, and affected everyone in Asia including China.

I wasn't making a comment with a political agenda, simply pointing out the excellent professionals at the BOT and MOF provide a continuity transcending whatever government is in power.The governments in Thailand since the Asian financial debacle of the late 1990's -when a great many lessons were learnt - have performed well.

It's not very clear what your rather confused comments regarding Devakula are meant to convey..that Thailand should somehow have taken steps to forestall the global financial crisis? Get real.

I never suggested that Asia was immune to the Western created crisis, simply that it was in a much stronger position and its financial institutions were much more robust.In fact Asia, including Thailand, has shrugged off its effects and - unlike the US and most of Europe (Germany being the exception) - is moving strongly forward.

No, it's not my comments that are confused.

[sbk]

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[LindsayBKK]

I never knew Anand until the other night.

Yes I must admit he was good at fending off Sackur's questions esp. when he replied regarding his wikileaks conversation "maybe it was lost in translation" Sackur was stumped

He gets my respect.

Anand Panyarachun (ex Prime Minister of Thailand) was asked on BBC Hard Talk if the Military would stage another coup if Pheu Thai won.

He said "he didn't think so".

True, but in answering the question twice by Hardtalk's Stephen Sackur, he said he was "hopeful" the army wouldn't and was "confident" the army wouldn't.Well which is it asked Sackur, "confident" and "hopeful" have different meanings.Clearly Anand was not used to being asked difficult questions by reporters and put on a generally lacklustre performance,far outshone by Abhisit and Sulak who were also interviewed in the BBC Hardtalk series.Disappointing because in some ways Anand is a great man and has long been one of my heroes.He also tried to be patronising and dismissive of Sackur's understanding of Thailand's uniqueness, always an indicator of a Thai being on the losing side of an argument.It doesn't really work when dealing with a well briefed and highly intelligent journalist like Sackur.And yet one can't help liking and admiring Anand.His heart is in the right place: I know for a fact that when the BBC's Jonathan Head was being persecuted by military cheerleaders Anand was one of the very few prominent Thais who defended him openly.

Edited July 8, 2011 by LindsayBKK