Putting Populist Pledges Into Action May Bankrupt Us All; Thai Opinion

[tcm2020]

Of course there are elements of truth to it and enough populist policies can bankrupt a country but:

1. Where was all the criticism when the last government was doing it?

2. There is another side to the equation: taxation. You can spend anything you like if it balances and doesnt result in mutiny among the masses. It is really the longer term tax issue to support welfare etc policies that needs sensible planning so the projects are sustainable over time.

"................... and doesnt result in mutiny among the masses."

Ah, you're getting there! You see, people working in a factory or shop 26+ days per month really have a hard time seeing why their taxes should be doubled to pay subsidies to rice farmers, who are perceived to spend a lot of time sitting under a tree drinking cheap booze (in between periods of hard work).

It is always the working class that pay the majority of tax because it is deducted from a wage, while the rich can find the means to duck and dive with tax minimisation schemes.

Glad you mentioned this. I thought i was going to help the farmers in my wifes village by providing them with jobs while they were waiting for their crop to be ready to harvest. Nope. i could not get one single person to work at their home in their spare time making the same money people here in town were getting. That was the last time my wife brought up helping the people in her village.

I would like to know how much you proposed to pay them.

[Skywalker69]

Does this mean all the taxi drivers will not be receiving the free credit card Thaksin promised?

Don´t forget, Khun T. also promised to make everyone "rich" in six months.

[DLock]

I find the article raises valid questions.

The tablet PC for every kid is interesting.

4 Billion baht for 800,000 tablet PC's.

That's 5,000 baht or $166 per tablet PC (someone better check my math).

Tablet prices are coming down, but to get something usable for $166 is impossible.

But like any tablet, its really only as good as it's content and connectivity. It can only be wifi for that price, so who is going to pay to have the schools wifi network's installed and maintained and pay for the connections every month?

Who will pay to repair them? Who is going to train the teachers? Who will write the content and who will pay for that?

Even if we assume that the Government can find the money somewhere, logistically this is impossible. Wishful thinking, but impossible.

This is a populist policy pure and simple. It is not in any way realistic or sustainable and has not been thought through at all. It will not happen en masse.

Who is going to tell little Somchai that Yingluck lied...he wont be getting an IPAD after all.

[OzMick]

I find the article raises valid questions.

The tablet PC for every kid is interesting.

4 Billion baht for 800,000 tablet PC's.

That's 5,000 baht or $166 per tablet PC (someone better check my math).

Tablet prices are coming down, but to get something usable for $166 is impossible.

But like any tablet, its really only as good as it's content and connectivity. It can only be wifi for that price, so who is going to pay to have the schools wifi network's installed and maintained and pay for the connections every month?

Who will pay to repair them? Who is going to train the teachers? Who will write the content and who will pay for that?

Even if we assume that the Government can find the money somewhere, logistically this is impossible. Wishful thinking, but impossible.

This is a populist policy pure and simple. It is not in any way realistic or sustainable and has not been thought through at all. It will not happen en masse.

Who is going to tell little Somchai that Yingluck lied...he wont be getting an IPAD after all.

You may have noticed that many thai households have multiple children, and in a good percentage of these, a 6-year-old is not the oldest child. When the govt gives a tablet to a 6-year-old girl who has an 8- and 10-year-old brother, how much time do you think she will get with it? That is an extreme case, but something similar to varying degree will take place in most homes.

I attempted to lightly educate my wife's family by buying them an inflatable globe - here is my home, this is Thailand, etc. Within 2 hours they were using it as a football. I wonder what unusual uses a tablet could find.

[Ricardo]

Does this mean all the taxi drivers will not be receiving the free credit card Thaksin promised?

Don´t forget, Khun T. also promised to make everyone "rich" in six months.

Indeed, and being retired I myself have plenty of time, to spend construction 'sick farang-buffalo' stories in anticipation.

Who is going to tell little Somchai that Yingluck lied...he wont be getting an IPAD after all.

And who will tell Somchai's older brothers & sisters, that he gets the new cheap lap-top, while they don't, who might have more chance of using the thing usefully ?

Edited July 7, 2011 by Ricardo

[OlafStapleton]

Spot on, The Nation. May you keep publishing the Truth Today ... and tomorrow.

But those who have pension abroad.

Give much better exchange rate.

Many foreigners very silly, should think more about what good for them, not what good for Thai economy.

Thai government never think what good for foreigner, so same same for us.

Edited July 7, 2011 by OlafStapleton

[OlafStapleton]

Then in my opinion, it is ridiculous, to introduce computers to children of such a young age, even before they have learnt any mathematics or language skills.

To a child of 5 I would consider a computer would be viewed as a toy not as a learning tool.

Save the 4Billion, direct it elsewhere

You never go to Thai school, Thai children never learn math or language skill.

Only learn to obey and repeat and read/write Thai.

Go to 7-11 all staff high school graduate, you see them add without calculator?

Edited July 7, 2011 by OlafStapleton

[hyperdimension]

I think Pheu Thai knew beforehand that they couldn't afford to implement all promises. They simply exploited the naivety of the materialistic electorate in order to win in the election.

Is there any law that stipulates that a political party cannot make unrealistic promises? Corporations are punished by law for false or deceptive marketing or advertising.

[OzMick]

I find the article raises valid questions.

The tablet PC for every kid is interesting.

4 Billion baht for 800,000 tablet PC's.

That's 5,000 baht or $166 per tablet PC (someone better check my math).

Tablet prices are coming down, but to get something usable for $166 is impossible.

But like any tablet, its really only as good as it's content and connectivity. It can only be wifi for that price, so who is going to pay to have the schools wifi network's installed and maintained and pay for the connections every month?

Who will pay to repair them? Who is going to train the teachers? Who will write the content and who will pay for that?

Even if we assume that the Government can find the money somewhere, logistically this is impossible. Wishful thinking, but impossible.

This is a populist policy pure and simple. It is not in any way realistic or sustainable and has not been thought through at all. It will not happen en masse.

Who is going to tell little Somchai that Yingluck lied...he wont be getting an IPAD after all.

You may have noticed that many thai households have multiple children, and in a good percentage of these, a 6-year-old is not the oldest child. When the govt gives a tablet to a 6-year-old girl who has an 8- and 10-year-old brother, how much time do you think she will get with it? That is an extreme case, but something similar to varying degree will take place in most homes.

I attempted to lightly educate my wife's family by buying them an inflatable globe - here is my home, this is Thailand, etc. Within 2 hours they were using it as a football. I wonder what unusual uses a tablet could find.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

Spot on, The Nation. May you keep publishing the Truth Today ... and tomorrow.

Thank you for that one.

[DLock]

Ok, now lets tackle the increased minimum wage to 300 baht per day.

This one is a little more tricky because minimum wage is defined by province, with Phuket being the most expensive at 221baht per day and Bangkok being at 215baht per day and the national average is 176per day as per 2011. So this one could be hidden in the fine print. Google this if you want references.

So, if we assume the "average" daily wage will move to 300baht per day, that is a 70% increase that Employers must endure.

And if that is an "average", what will that mean for Phuket and Bangkok who are already 25% higher than average.

How many companies can afford to increase salaries by 70%? I would guess, not many, especially those where salary is their biggest monthly expense.

Again, a populist policy to appeal to the masses, but not based in reality or sustainability.

Mr. Smochai may in fact be able to buy little Somchai that IPAD for his other kids now...

[cloudhopper]

It astounds me that anyone actually believes that Yingluck will actually implement any of her promises. Just like all the simpletons voting for Obama in the States believing he could would change anything. Just like in Ireland, Spain and Portugal too (Greece goes without saying after 3 generations of Paps) - meet the new boss same as the old boss.

[exbelg]

why not a farang tax of 250.000 baht per person per year in exchange of a 1 year visa extension to help support all these false promises ?

[Jingthing]

why not a farang tax of 250.000 baht per person per year in exchange of a 1 year visa extension to help support all these false promises ?

They can do anything they want, and I expect looking to expats is probably in the cards to some degree. But an onerous non-Thai penalty would likely be a quick way to clear most of us out, so that's why not, unless that is the goal, which it might be.

[hansnl]

Do you have any substantial criticism of the article? Do you really think these policies are affordable? I'd love to know where you think the money is going to come from.

Sure, let take one of the statements blithely thrown out:

"The pledge to raise the minimum wage to Bt300 in 90 days might also lead to uncontrollable inflation. It is crucial that the minimum wage level be acceptable to both employers and workers so as to ensure it is practical and conducive to the business environment. A rate set too high would discourage factories from hiring workers, causing high inflation and creating potential job losses as factories turned to outsourcing."

Uncontrollable inflation? How would that lead to such an unstoppable juggernaut?

It might cause some additional inflation, but even so, I would think a minimum wage of $10 a day should be considered a basic necessity, not a luxury. When was the last time the minimum wage was raised? This being Thailand, I'm sure it was quite some time ago. Of course inflation would have continued apace in the interim, so this would likely allow worked to pull even with the erosion in buying power they have already suffered. Gawd, these awful PT people think workers should get 7,200 baht a month for a 6-day workweek?

Because Thailand can't compete in efficiency and innovation, it has to battle it out on price, so someone has to make the sacrifice -- of course the powerless workers should take the hit.

At any rate,the statement above is alarmist exaggeration, and is one part of what is sure to be a continuing campaign of attacks by the Nation, which BTW, I'm sure doesn't want to pay it's workers a decent wage.

Ten dollar a day might be a nice wage.

However, at this moment the minimum wage is 180 baht or so.

Which means that a raise to 300 baht in 90 days is quite hefty.

You think prices will not rise?

Or, seen the 65% hike, explode?

Prices will rise some?

Think again what this will mean for the export, the prices of anything in Thailand.

[exbelg]

why not a farang tax of 250.000 baht per person per year in exchange of a 1 year visa extension to help support all these false promises ?

They can do anything they want, and I expect looking to expats is probably in the cards to some degree. But an onerous non-Thai penalty would likely be a quick way to clear most of us out, so that's why not, unless that is the goal, which it might be.

was just an idea as most TV expats here seem to be millionaires (in baht or in $) with golden pensions anyway, if you believe the poll they did about income

[DLock]

It did just occur to me that all these election promises did not come with a timeframe attached.

So, in 2018 a tablet PC may in fact be $166 and the average wage, adjusted for inflation, would be 300baht per day.

That's what that asterix meant on the election speech.

[erobando]

Virtually everyone in Thailand working in a shop or factory is not paying tax as they dont earn enough, and many are on daily pay. Many many farmers who can only grow one crop a year as water is diverted for other uses also end up doing a few months in a factory, on a building site or even in a shop or behind the wheel of a taxi if orgasmically lucky

Yeah, even the college grads making the promised 15,000 THB per month wouldn't have income tax deducted from their paycheck.

Thailand could raise more funds to help the poor by increasing the tax rate on upper middle and upper class people. And then actually enforce it.

If they were true Leftists, they would; but they're not, so they won't.

[chaoyang]

Ok, now lets tackle the increased minimum wage to 300 baht per day.

This one is a little more tricky because minimum wage is defined by province, with Phuket being the most expensive at 221baht per day and Bangkok being at 215baht per day and the national average is 176per day as per 2011. So this one could be hidden in the fine print. Google this if you want references.

So, if we assume the "average" daily wage will move to 300baht per day, that is a 70% increase that Employers must endure.

And if that is an "average", what will that mean for Phuket and Bangkok who are already 25% higher than average.

How many companies can afford to increase salaries by 70%? I would guess, not many, especially those where salary is their biggest monthly expense.

Again, a populist policy to appeal to the masses, but not based in reality or sustainability.

Mr. Smochai may in fact be able to buy little Somchai that IPAD for his other kids now...

To do the math:

300 - 221= 79 baht increase

79 baht is 35 percent of 221

so that is a 35 percent increase, not a70 percent increase

It also begs the question what is a livable wage in Thailand anyway. So the current 221 baht/day is fair? I've never been able to understand how someone can afford just basic housing and food on that.

And the headline of this story: Will these things really "bankrupt us all"?

Does anyone believe this is an unbiased newspaper?

[Jingthing]

Virtually everyone in Thailand working in a shop or factory is not paying tax as they dont earn enough, and many are on daily pay. Many many farmers who can only grow one crop a year as water is diverted for other uses also end up doing a few months in a factory, on a building site or even in a shop or behind the wheel of a taxi if orgasmically lucky

Yeah, even the college grads making the promised 15,000 THB per month wouldn't have income tax deducted from their paycheck.

Thailand could raise more funds to help the poor by increasing the tax rate on upper middle and upper class people. And then actually enforce it.

If they were true Leftists, they would; but they're not, so they won't.

Yes and real estate taxes. Against my self interest as I would have to pay them, but if more tax revenue from the wealthier isn't part of this program in addition to heavy investments in developing future human capital resources, it is basically insane.

[wolfmanjack]

Of course there are elements of truth to it and enough populist policies can bankrupt a country but:

1. Where was all the criticism when the last government was doing it?

2. There is another side to the equation: taxation. You can spend anything you like if it balances and doesnt result in mutiny among the masses. It is really the longer term tax issue to support welfare etc policies that needs sensible planning so the projects are sustainable over time.

"................... and doesnt result in mutiny among the masses."

Ah, you're getting there! You see, people working in a factory or shop 26+ days per month really have a hard time seeing why their taxes should be doubled to pay subsidies to rice farmers, who are perceived to spend a lot of time sitting under a tree drinking cheap booze (in between periods of hard work).

It is always the working class that pay the majority of tax because it is deducted from a wage, while the rich can find the means to duck and dive with tax minimisation schemes.

Glad you mentioned this. I thought i was going to help the farmers in my wifes village by providing them with jobs while they were waiting for their crop to be ready to harvest. Nope. i could not get one single person to work at their home in their spare time making the same money people here in town were getting. That was the last time my wife brought up helping the people in her village.

I would like to know how much you proposed to pay them.

like i said in my post. It was the same wage for people in a village with no jobs other than what they grew on their own land as what i was paying my workers here in chiang mai. They did not want it so i just hired more people here in chiang mai and they were happy to get it.

[wolfmanjack]

I find the article raises valid questions.

The tablet PC for every kid is interesting.

4 Billion baht for 800,000 tablet PC's.

That's 5,000 baht or $166 per tablet PC (someone better check my math).

Tablet prices are coming down, but to get something usable for $166 is impossible.

But like any tablet, its really only as good as it's content and connectivity. It can only be wifi for that price, so who is going to pay to have the schools wifi network's installed and maintained and pay for the connections every month?

Who will pay to repair them? Who is going to train the teachers? Who will write the content and who will pay for that?

Even if we assume that the Government can find the money somewhere, logistically this is impossible. Wishful thinking, but impossible.

This is a populist policy pure and simple. It is not in any way realistic or sustainable and has not been thought through at all. It will not happen en masse.

Who is going to tell little Somchai that Yingluck lied...he wont be getting an IPAD after all.

the 5 year olds would rather have a candy bar anyway.

[Britannia]

Then in my opinion, it is ridiculous, to introduce computers to children of such a young age, even before they have learnt any mathematics or language skills.

To a child of 5 I would consider a computer would be viewed as a toy not as a learning tool.

Save the 4Billion, direct it elsewhere

You never go to Thai school, Thai children never learn math or language skill.

Only learn to obey and repeat and read/write Thai.

Go to 7-11 all staff high school graduate, you see them add without calculator?

I was trying to add some sense not to be facetious

We are all aware of the educated standards of 7/11 staff

We are talking about improving education, that’s the discussion

By the way have you ever considered the education standard of those working for Big Mac etc. in London, New York etc

Do you speak to your friendly 7/11 staff in Thai or do you expect then to communicate in English?

[DLock]

Ok, now lets tackle the increased minimum wage to 300 baht per day.

This one is a little more tricky because minimum wage is defined by province, with Phuket being the most expensive at 221baht per day and Bangkok being at 215baht per day and the national average is 176per day as per 2011. So this one could be hidden in the fine print. Google this if you want references.

So, if we assume the "average" daily wage will move to 300baht per day, that is a 70% increase that Employers must endure.

And if that is an "average", what will that mean for Phuket and Bangkok who are already 25% higher than average.

How many companies can afford to increase salaries by 70%? I would guess, not many, especially those where salary is their biggest monthly expense.

Again, a populist policy to appeal to the masses, but not based in reality or sustainability.

Mr. Smochai may in fact be able to buy little Somchai that IPAD for his other kids now...

To do the math:

300 - 221= 79 baht increase

79 baht is 35 percent of 221

so that is a 35 percent increase, not a70 percent increase

It also begs the question what is a livable wage in Thailand anyway. So the current 221 baht/day is fair? I've never been able to understand how someone can afford just basic housing and food on that.

And the headline of this story: Will these things really "bankrupt us all"?

Does anyone believe this is an unbiased newspaper?

Lets use your math. But why would you use 221baht per day? I explained that is the highest in the nation and in Phuket.

You should be using the "average" wage which as I also explained is 176BPD

300 - 176 = 124

124 baht is 70% of 176

so that is a 70% increase on the "average" daily daily salary.

How did you do in school with comprehension and math?

[chaoyang]

Lets use your math. But why would you use 221baht per day? I explained that is the highest in the nation and in Phuket.

You should be using the "average" wage which as I also explained is 176BPD

300 - 176 = 124

124 baht is 70% of 176

so that is a 70% increase on the "average" daily daily salary.

How did you do in school with comprehension and math?

You're right, 124 is 70 percent of 176

I'm right, 79 is 35 percent of 221

I missed the "average" bit -- reading not math comprehension I guess:).

How long has the average wage been 176 baht/day?

[ianbaggie]

What did we have under Abhisit's rule?

- Relations with neighboring countries at its worst, to the brink of war with Cambodia.

- Worst ever human rights record in Thailand's history.

- Highest debt in Thailand's history.

It can't get much worse. Just more crappy reporting by TheNation.

Ha ha ha ha ha - is that the best you can post??? :cheesy:

[DLock]

Lets use your math. But why would you use 221baht per day? I explained that is the highest in the nation and in Phuket.

You should be using the "average" wage which as I also explained is 176BPD

300 - 176 = 124

124 baht is 70% of 176

so that is a 70% increase on the "average" daily daily salary.

How did you do in school with comprehension and math?

You're right, 124 is 70 percent of 176

I'm right, 79 is 35 percent of 221

I missed the "average" bit -- reading not math comprehension I guess:).

How long has the average wage been 176 baht/day?

I believe it is increased each year, and this done each January.

2011 represented an average of 7% increase over 2010.

If you want more detail, there is a good link http://www.business-in-asia.com/thailand/minimum_wage2011.html

I believe that a promise of 70% increase, or 10 times the 2011 average increase is unrealistic and will be too heavy a burden for employers. It would only serve to reduce employment or hire illegal workers. I can't see such a huge increase having any benefit other than the reason the promise was made...to get elected.

[chaoyang]

I believe it is increased each year, and this done each January.

2011 represented an average of 7% increase over 2010.

I believe that a promise of 70% increase, or 10 times the 2011 average increase is unrealistic and will be too heavy a burden for employers. It would only serve to reduce employment or hire illegal workers. I can't see such a huge increase having any benefit other than the reason the promise was made...to get elected.

That could be the realistic assessment of what would happen, and as another poster has noted, many workers are not interested in working hard (er), even for more money.

Still, the reality of 176 baht/day ($6) is a pittance. Sad state of affairs all around.

Another aspect is that if income was raised in real terms without reducing employment there would be a knock-on effect to the economy.

[hungryhippo]

2. There is another side to the equation: taxation. You can spend anything you like if it balances and doesnt result in mutiny among the masses. It is really the longer term tax issue to support welfare etc policies that needs sensible planning so the projects are sustainable over time.

Problem with that is there are people that don't pay their taxes then flee to Montenegro...

The "one tablet per child" programme would amount to 800,000 computers at a cost of about Bt4 billion. But it remains to be seen how this project would contribute to the children's development - especially those living in rural areas with no broadband coverage.

The one laptop per child program has had a lot of success in africa and brazil, i'm sure they'll do fine without broadband. Internet isn't needed here.

If every kid had a tablet where they can all share the same "book" it would be an improvement over the donated jumble of books that the whole class has to share. Imagine having to teach a class math when everyone has a different math book. ugh.. Also the fact that the tablets have sound maybe the kids will pronounce english words better instead of relying on a teacher that hardly knows english themselves.

The best part I like about the one laptop per child project is that it's not simply about giving kids laptops, it's about education and using the laptops as a tool to further it, so the organisation actually goes out and educates people, makes sure they know how to use the technology as well as how to fix it, etc.

It's probably the only thing I support and was actually canceled before in 2006 when Taksin was ousted so it's not some new thing they thought up for the election.

Edited July 7, 2011 by hungryhippo

[rotary]

Sounds like a formula for disaster to me. The USA and the UK plus several others have made so many entitlements they have ruined their economics.

I hope Thailand does not follow western thinking on this "free stuff".