Tropical depression forms near the Bahamas, tropical storm watch issued

[News_Editor]

Tropical depression forms near the Bahamas, tropical storm watch issued

2011-07-18 05:09:06 GMT+7 (ICT)

MIAMI (BNO NEWS) -- Tropical Depression Two formed north of the Bahamas on late Sunday afternoon, forecasters said, prompting a tropical storm watch for some islands nearby.

Forecasters at the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) have been following the weather system since Saturday morning when it emerged off the coast of Florida, producing widespread cloudiness and showers from the northeastern Florida and Georgia coasts eastwards over the Atlantic Ocean for several hundred miles (kilometers). It quickly became better organized on Sunday.

"An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane investigating the low pressure area just north of the northwest Bahamas found a well-defined low-level center of circulation, and the system is being designated as a tropical cyclone at this time," said NHC senior hurricane specialist Stacy Stewart.

As of 5 p.m. EDT (2100 GMT), the center of Tropical Depression Two was located about 100 miles (165 kilometers) northwest of Great Abaco Island, which is part of the Abaco Islands in the northern Bahamas. It is moving toward the south near two miles (four kilometers) per hour, with little movement expected until Monday.

Stewart said maximum sustained winds were near 35 miles (55 kilometers) per hour on late Sunday afternoon, although some data already indicates the presence of a tropical storm. "Peak flight-level winds reported by the aircraft were 44 knots (50 miles / 81 kilometers) which would normally indicate a system of tropical storm strength. However, the convection near the center is relatively weak, and in this case the strongest winds are likely not mixing down to the surface as much as typically occurs," Stewart explained.

While no significant strengthening is expected, the storm is expected to be classified as a tropical storm later on Sunday. "The atmospheric environment is not ideal for strengthening with some drier air just to the north and northwest of the cyclone," Stewart said. "None of the current model runs show the system strengthening into a hurricane."

Because a tropical storm is expected, the government of the Bahamas has issued a tropical storm watch for Grand Bahama Island and the Abaco Islands. However, most of the storm is expected to remain away from the islands as it eventually makes a turn to the northeast and moves away from the Bahamas.

If Tropical Depression Two strengthens into a tropical storm, it will be given the name Bret. Bret would be the second named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, following Tropical Storm Arlene which impacted the Yucatán Peninsula and Mexico in late June, killing 25 people.

According to figures released in May, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is expecting an above-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic this year. The outlook calls for 12 to 18 named storms, with six to ten becoming hurricanes and three to six expected to become a major hurricane (category 3 or higher).

An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes and two becoming major hurricanes. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, with peak activity in September.

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