Charter Move And Thaksin May Spur Govt To Fall

[webfact]

ABAC POLL

Charter move and Thaksin may spur govt to fall

Seven out of 10 people say govt should postpone any amendments

Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's activities and the government's push to amend the charter are two critical issues which might cause the collapse of the Pheu Thai-led coaltion, Abac Poll said yesterday.

Some 52 per cent voiced concern that the charter rewrite could lead to political chaos and 53 per cent opposed the push to amend the charter.

The survey was conducted on 2,193 respondents from 17 selected provinces representing a nationwide sample with a seven per cent margin of error.

Among those opposing the charter rewrite, 12 per cent said they were ready to stage a protest.

About seven in ten people urged the government to postpone its push to amend the charter. And one in two people disagreed with the idea of bringing back the suspended 1997 charter.

Almost 55 per cent saw the charter rewrite as serving partisan interests rather than society. Two in five people said they suspected the charter would be amended to help Thaksin elude his conviction and punishment.

Four in five people called on the government to pay attention to improving the people's livelihood instead of focusing on charter amendments.

Almost seven in 10 people wanted Thaksin to stop meddling with the government in order to allow Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra to exert her leadership.

Some 51 per cent said they did not expect reconciliation to happen.

Reacting to the survey, PM Yingluck said she believed her brother Thaksin was already aware of the sentiment on his links to the government.

"My brother knows the prevailing mood of the people, this is why he has never been involved in politics," she said, insisting Thaksin only gave advice but had no direct role in the decision-making process.

She said she was willing to heed advice from all sides, including that of her brother, although she would make her own decision.

She denied speculation that Thaksin pulled strings behind the scenes, arguing Thaksin was not an office holder and that he did not dominate the government or the ruling party.

-- The Nation 2011-08-22

[Buchholz]

She denied speculation that Thaksin pulled strings behind the scenes, arguing Thaksin was not an office holder and that he did not dominate the government or the ruling party.

the charade continues, but at least the poll reveals the public is getting less likely to buy into it.

.

Edited August 21, 2011 by Buchholz

[Ricardo]

"My brother knows the prevailing mood of the people, this is why he has never been involved in politics," she said,

Alai Wa ?!

Thaksin never involved in politics, says his sister the new PM, you simply couldn't make this stuff up ! I look forward to more wonderful mis-statements by PM-Yingluck, if this is anything to go by !

Edited August 22, 2011 by Ricardo

[OzMick]

"My brother knows the prevailing mood of the people, this is why he has never been involved in politics," she said ...............with a smile of course. Who could deliver that line with a straight face?

[REM]

They know there's nothing to be scared of, with the 'wise street sweepers' as Jutaporn said. Adding the fact that most of them are overweight and lazy, it will be a rather disappointing uprising!!! (Quoting the two stories from yesterday)

Seriously though, it's amazing!!! I just can't believe it sometimes, well, actually, most of the time! So her brother not being involved in politics means videoconferencing calls to political rallies was nothing, as well as meeting all of the cabinet members before they were appointed. Oh yeah, and having the foreign affairs minister ask Japan for a visa for him? Hhhhmm, well by that logic, I didn't just post this on TV!

[AngelofDeath]

17 provinces are always used when this type of big scale survey is done. I wonder which 17 provinces did they choose from. We all know Thailand is "divided" as proved in the last election. The provinces chosen for this survey will change the result dramatically

Regardless, they have already failed on so many levels regarding their ability to formulate and execute the policies promised.. Thaksin is the catalyst for chaos.

[lovetotravel]

This doesn't sound good. Problems brewing for sure.

And I thought GW Bush was bad. This lady is making him look like a scholar!

[Derifo]

Telling lies isn't an issue here. Not even when everyone else knows the truth.

[Valentine]

17 provinces are always used when this type of big scale survey is done. I wonder which 17 provinces did they choose from. We all know Thailand is "divided" as proved in the last election. The provinces chosen for this survey will change the result dramatically

Regardless, they have already failed on so many levels regarding their ability to formulate and execute the policies promised.. Thaksin is the catalyst for chaos.

Prior to the election the same survey company showed that Pheu Thai would win so it seems the surveys are being undertaken by a fair cross section of soicety.

[moe666]

Doesn't she get tired of denying, my brother this and my brother that

[hammered]

Good. This may gove the opponents of Thaksin the confidence to not fear a referendum on 1997 or 2007. If they win it and 1997 is rejected the technical return of Thaksin will not happen. It is best that this choice is put to the people.

Personally I think the people will choose 1997 given the choice. I also suspect Thaksin's opponents think this, which is why it is being spun as delay, dont even try and government will fall when really they should be pushing for a quick vote if they are so confident of the outcome. Why would a government fall if it pushed for charter change via the democratic route by the way? The people would have the say. That is democracy. I guess if core policy went down they could be pressured to go for an election, so again for Thaksin's opponents if they believe this data is accurate a quick referendum on charter change would seem the logical option.

[OzMick]

Good. This may gove the opponents of Thaksin the confidence to not fear a referendum on 1997 or 2007. If they win it and 1997 is rejected the technical return of Thaksin will not happen. It is best that this choice is put to the people.

Personally I think the people will choose 1997 given the choice. I also suspect Thaksin's opponents think this, which is why it is being spun as delay, dont even try and government will fall when really they should be pushing for a quick vote if they are so confident of the outcome. Why would a government fall if it pushed for charter change via the democratic route by the way? The people would have the say. That is democracy. I guess if core policy went down they could be pressured to go for an election, so again for Thaksin's opponents if they believe this data is accurate a quick referendum on charter change would seem the logical option.

The survey figures all seem on the positive side of opposition to charter change - 70% in favour of postponement is way beyond margin of error. What makes you believe that PTP would hold a referendum inlight of negative figures, they could just do it and claim that they have a mandate?

[scorecard]

"My brother knows the prevailing mood of the people, this is why he has never been involved in politics," she said ...............with a smile of course. Who could deliver that line with a straight face?

Sorry but I seem to recall brother and sister and pt leaders making statements about 'thaksin thinks - pt does it' or something similar.

confusing, or it is just an predicted by many?

[hammered]

Good. This may gove the opponents of Thaksin the confidence to not fear a referendum on 1997 or 2007. If they win it and 1997 is rejected the technical return of Thaksin will not happen. It is best that this choice is put to the people.

Personally I think the people will choose 1997 given the choice. I also suspect Thaksin's opponents think this, which is why it is being spun as delay, dont even try and government will fall when really they should be pushing for a quick vote if they are so confident of the outcome. Why would a government fall if it pushed for charter change via the democratic route by the way? The people would have the say. That is democracy. I guess if core policy went down they could be pressured to go for an election, so again for Thaksin's opponents if they believe this data is accurate a quick referendum on charter change would seem the logical option.

The survey figures all seem on the positive side of opposition to charter change - 70% in favour of postponement is way beyond margin of error. What makes you believe that PTP would hold a referendum inlight of negative figures, they could just do it and claim that they have a mandate?

I dont believe the figures. When polls were showing the Dems would win or draw the last election every Thai person I know, and most arent Thaksin supporters, said dont believe them PTP will easily beat the Dems. I hear the same now, and I have learnt to trust what I hear. Anyway it is irrelevent if the PTP do go for change as we will see.

Bear in mind a lot of these polls are either done in urban areas or by landline telephone. Bear in mind there is a massive anti-Thaksin campaign going on to stop any charter change even being talked about and not to be put to referenda. I am sure if it goes to 1997 versus 2007 that 1997 will win. Still hopefully we will get to see whether I am right or not as the only end to all this is through the will of the people. Other methods will never end the matter. In fact they only exacerbate things as we have seen. A single electoral defeat for the Thaksin side on this is all it takes to leave him sidelined. The reason his whole party holds together is the utter fear of most MPs that he cant be beaten electorally. If it is ever shown he can the whole ediface collapses. Plenty of good reasons for his opponents to push for an early referendum if they believe the poll. I question they do.

[Insight]

Good. This may gove the opponents of Thaksin the confidence to not fear a referendum on 1997 or 2007. If they win it and 1997 is rejected the technical return of Thaksin will not happen. It is best that this choice is put to the people.

Personally I think the people will choose 1997 given the choice. I also suspect Thaksin's opponents think this, which is why it is being spun as delay, dont even try and government will fall when really they should be pushing for a quick vote if they are so confident of the outcome. Why would a government fall if it pushed for charter change via the democratic route by the way? The people would have the say. That is democracy. I guess if core policy went down they could be pressured to go for an election, so again for Thaksin's opponents if they believe this data is accurate a quick referendum on charter change would seem the logical option.

The survey figures all seem on the positive side of opposition to charter change - 70% in favour of postponement is way beyond margin of error. What makes you believe that PTP would hold a referendum inlight of negative figures, they could just do it and claim that they have a mandate?

PTP will go for a referendum as they'll deal with it the same way they dealt with the election - throw a truckload of money at the PT-loyal populous and expect them to come onboard, regardless of rational.

For the rest of the voting public who are well aware of what the real agenda is here, changes to the constitution will remain venomously opposed. But tough titty as that's democracy.

It'll end in tears. Or much worse.

[lovetotravel]

Good. This may gove the opponents of Thaksin the confidence to not fear a referendum on 1997 or 2007. If they win it and 1997 is rejected the technical return of Thaksin will not happen. It is best that this choice is put to the people.

Personally I think the people will choose 1997 given the choice. I also suspect Thaksin's opponents think this, which is why it is being spun as delay, dont even try and government will fall when really they should be pushing for a quick vote if they are so confident of the outcome. Why would a government fall if it pushed for charter change via the democratic route by the way? The people would have the say. That is democracy. I guess if core policy went down they could be pressured to go for an election, so again for Thaksin's opponents if they believe this data is accurate a quick referendum on charter change would seem the logical option.

The survey figures all seem on the positive side of opposition to charter change - 70% in favour of postponement is way beyond margin of error. What makes you believe that PTP would hold a referendum inlight of negative figures, they could just do it and claim that they have a mandate?

I dont believe the figures. When polls were showing the Dems would win or draw the last election every Thai person I know, and most arent Thaksin supporters, said dont believe them PTP will easily beat the Dems. I hear the same now, and I have learnt to trust what I hear. Anyway it is irrelevent if the PTP do go for change as we will see.

Bear in mind a lot of these polls are either done in urban areas or by landline telephone. Bear in mind there is a massive anti-Thaksin campaign going on to stop any charter change even being talked about and not to be put to referenda. I am sure if it goes to 1997 versus 2007 that 1997 will win. Still hopefully we will get to see whether I am right or not as the only end to all this is through the will of the people. Other methods will never end the matter. In fact they only exacerbate things as we have seen. A single electoral defeat for the Thaksin side on this is all it takes to leave him sidelined. The reason his whole party holds together is the utter fear of most MPs that he cant be beaten electorally. If it is ever shown he can the whole ediface collapses. Plenty of good reasons for his opponents to push for an early referendum if they believe the poll. I question they do.

The charter change is not up to the will of the people. It's up to the might and power of Thaksin. Or is that up to how much money he's willing to spend???

I read in "the other" newspaper some judge is saying the 1997 charter has major problems.

[whybother]

I dont believe the figures. When polls were showing the Dems would win or draw the last election every Thai person I know, and most arent Thaksin supporters, said dont believe them PTP will easily beat the Dems. I hear the same now, and I have learnt to trust what I hear. Anyway it is irrelevent if the PTP do go for change as we will see.

What polls showed that the Democrats would win or draw the last election?

Bear in mind a lot of these polls are either done in urban areas or by landline telephone. Bear in mind there is a massive anti-Thaksin campaign going on to stop any charter change even being talked about and not to be put to referenda. I am sure if it goes to 1997 versus 2007 that 1997 will win. Still hopefully we will get to see whether I am right or not as the only end to all this is through the will of the people. Other methods will never end the matter. In fact they only exacerbate things as we have seen. A single electoral defeat for the Thaksin side on this is all it takes to leave him sidelined. The reason his whole party holds together is the utter fear of most MPs that he cant be beaten electorally. If it is ever shown he can the whole ediface collapses. Plenty of good reasons for his opponents to push for an early referendum if they believe the poll. I question they do.

Bear in mind that you could make up a lot more excuses if you really wanted to.

Edited August 22, 2011 by whybother

[hammered]

Good. This may gove the opponents of Thaksin the confidence to not fear a referendum on 1997 or 2007. If they win it and 1997 is rejected the technical return of Thaksin will not happen. It is best that this choice is put to the people.

Personally I think the people will choose 1997 given the choice. I also suspect Thaksin's opponents think this, which is why it is being spun as delay, dont even try and government will fall when really they should be pushing for a quick vote if they are so confident of the outcome. Why would a government fall if it pushed for charter change via the democratic route by the way? The people would have the say. That is democracy. I guess if core policy went down they could be pressured to go for an election, so again for Thaksin's opponents if they believe this data is accurate a quick referendum on charter change would seem the logical option.

The survey figures all seem on the positive side of opposition to charter change - 70% in favour of postponement is way beyond margin of error. What makes you believe that PTP would hold a referendum inlight of negative figures, they could just do it and claim that they have a mandate?

I dont believe the figures. When polls were showing the Dems would win or draw the last election every Thai person I know, and most arent Thaksin supporters, said dont believe them PTP will easily beat the Dems. I hear the same now, and I have learnt to trust what I hear. Anyway it is irrelevent if the PTP do go for change as we will see.

Bear in mind a lot of these polls are either done in urban areas or by landline telephone. Bear in mind there is a massive anti-Thaksin campaign going on to stop any charter change even being talked about and not to be put to referenda. I am sure if it goes to 1997 versus 2007 that 1997 will win. Still hopefully we will get to see whether I am right or not as the only end to all this is through the will of the people. Other methods will never end the matter. In fact they only exacerbate things as we have seen. A single electoral defeat for the Thaksin side on this is all it takes to leave him sidelined. The reason his whole party holds together is the utter fear of most MPs that he cant be beaten electorally. If it is ever shown he can the whole ediface collapses. Plenty of good reasons for his opponents to push for an early referendum if they believe the poll. I question they do.

The charter change is not up to the will of the people. It's up to the might and power of Thaksin. Or is that up to how much money he's willing to spend???

I read in "the other" newspaper some judge is saying the 1997 charter has major problems.

Of course it is up to the will of the people. It is the constitution by which people grant government, legislature, courts etc the power to make decisions on their behalf. Now what Thaksin, Abhisit, a judge or anyone else wants to say can be said before a vote. And if the usual money game is to be played than so be it although according to Korn the Thaksin party is not the major employer of such tactics, but Im sure all can chip and try to avoid being caught.

In democracies when there are political divisions they are sorted out by elections and/or referenda. The will of the people is the ultimate arbiter in a democratic society. All of Thailand's problems stem from trying to short circuit away from this with a bunch of betters deciding what is best, putting themselves into direct conflict with what the people want. The sad reality is that people may have actually changed minds by now if left unhindered

[webfact]

Polls Show Public Demand for Thaksin to Cease Political Activities

The latest ABAC Poll finds that the public wants former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to cease all politically-related activities to allow his sister to work smoothly as prime minister.

Assumption University conducted a study of the public’s views about a charter amendment and reconciliation with more than 2,000 sample subjects in 17 provinces nationwide.

As many as 68.9 percent of the respondents want former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra to cease all political activities abroad and let his sister Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra do her job while 20.5 percent supports Thaksin helping the country, but want him to stay out of the media spotlight, while 10.6 percent say it is at his discretion.

More than 40 percent feel the government is too dedicated to helping Thaksin while 24.9 percent feel the government is helping the majority of the population, 19.7 percent see the government as addressing the nation’s needs, and 14.5 percent are already feel disappointed with this administration.

As many as 52.7 percent do not trust the government’s charter amendment efforts and fear a new round of subsequent unrest.

Of the 53 percent that disagree with amending the Constitution, 12 percent of the respondents say they would come out to protest the move.

Of the 46.7 percent that agree with amending the charter, 11 percent said they would rally to support the move, and 35.7 percent will not join any gathering for the cause.

In the meantime, 76.9 percent of the respondents see the charter amendment as something that can wait while only 23.1 percent see it as an urgent issue.

Interestingly, 55.1 percent believe a charter amendment is a means of helping a certain group of people whereas 44.9 percent sees it for the benefit of the nation.

Opinions about replacing the current Constitution with the 1997 version is nearly evenly split, with a slight favor towards the current Constitution.

On reconciliation efforts, 51.3 percent do not think they will be a success, and 50.9 percent said they are even prepared for any conflict that may erupt again.

In addition, Dusit Poll surveyed nearly 1,400 people and found that 97.5 percent of respondents are most interested in the new government’s policies to address narcotics, followed by corruption, reconciliation, southern violence, farmers’ debt moratorium, raising the daily minimum wage to 300 baht, increasing the entry salary for new graduates to 15,000 baht, improving relations with neighboring countries, political reform, and issuing tablets to students.

Moreover, NIDA Poll surveyed nearly 1,300 people about the new Cabinet and found that the minister most well known is Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung, at 93 percent.

Second is Deputy PM and Tourism and Sports Minister Chumpol Silapa-archa at 69.4 percent, while Justice Minister Pracha Promnok came in third at 64.3 percent.

-- Tan Network 2011-08-22

[Buchholz]

Most Thais disagree with constitution amendment

BANGKOK (Xinhua) - The majority of Thai people showed disagreement with the amendment to the 2007 constitution proposed by the ruling Pheu Thai Party, saying it could cause a new round of conflict, showed Abac Poll's survey on Sunday. The opinion poll, which surveyed the public opinion about constitution amendment and hopes for reconciliation, was conducted by Abac (Assumption University) during August 16 to 20 in 17 provinces across Thailand among 2,193 respondents.

Some 53.3 percent respondents disagreed with the Pheu Thai's move to amend the 2007 constitution while 41.3 percent supported the idea. Some 52.7 percent respondents were worried that the charter amendment might incite political violence, while others believed there would not be such problems. Most or 76.9 percent respondents said charter amendment was not urgent and could be delayed, while 23.1 percent said it should be amended immediately. About the idea to replace the 2007 constitution with the 1997 charter, 50.8 percent showed their disagreement but 49.2 percent held the opposite view.

Besides, about 55.1 percent saw the attempt to revise the charter as for the sake of some individuals and groups but not the country. Some 79.8 percent of the respondents wanted the government to concentrate more on solving the economic problems than on amending the constitution.

Continues:

http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=719150&publicationSubCategoryId=200

[Buchholz]

Some 79.8 percent of the respondents wanted the government to concentrate more on solving the economic problems than on amending the constitution.

Very nearly 8 out of 10 Thais are trying to tell the government something....

and it ain't to tell it to be getting visas and making amendments.

.

Edited August 22, 2011 by Buchholz

[tragickingdom]

Those lively useless polls. Thailand is made up again out of just 17 provinces. Even a tiny country like Monaco would consider 2100 people to small for a representative sample. Moreover these agencies are plain lazy, so they always ask the very same people in their database the questions. If you are working in a factory and have during worktime no access to your mobile of computer you are out of luck you will not be polled. Even a child of 5 would understand that all parties plus half the democrat party are unhappy with the toilet paper constitution. the DP however wanted to keep the elite happy and did not brought it up. Thaksin is the reason that the government is in power, if they only had polled in Izan or the North they would have come up with a totally different outcome. Unfortunately, the DP and their sponsors paid for the poll. Expect a lot more of useless polls all published by the mouthpiece of the Yellow Shirt and royalists daily newsletter "the Nation".

Polls predicted too that PT would not even come close to a majority till the exit polls came and than the numbers were wrong again. Just ignore these charlatans.

[atyclb]

"Almost seven in 10 people wanted Thaksin to stop meddling with the government in order to allow Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra to exert her leadership"

Astonishing how some citizens can fail to see YL and Thaksin as one and the SAME. A vote for her was really a vote for him.

[whybother]

Those lively useless polls. Thailand is made up again out of just 17 provinces. Even a tiny country like Monaco would consider 2100 people to small for a representative sample. Moreover these agencies are plain lazy, so they always ask the very same people in their database the questions. If you are working in a factory and have during worktime no access to your mobile of computer you are out of luck you will not be polled. Even a child of 5 would understand that all parties plus half the democrat party are unhappy with the toilet paper constitution. the DP however wanted to keep the elite happy and did not brought it up. Thaksin is the reason that the government is in power, if they only had polled in Izan or the North they would have come up with a totally different outcome. Unfortunately, the DP and their sponsors paid for the poll. Expect a lot more of useless polls all published by the mouthpiece of the Yellow Shirt and royalists daily newsletter "the Nation".

Polls predicted too that PT would not even come close to a majority till the exit polls came and than the numbers were wrong again. Just ignore these charlatans.

"Unfortunately, the DP and their sponsors paid for the poll." - You know this for a fact?

ABAC is not part of the Nation.

It also seems that you know nothing about statistics.

[ToffeEFCpower]

Yingluck doesn't do debates.

[Jingthing]

Yingluck doesn't do debates.

Of course not and you will never see her on Hard Talk. This is probably a sign of intelligence by her handlers. Those are train wrecks they wisely avoid. (Again, there is no there there.)

Edited August 22, 2011 by Jingthing

[ToffeEFCpower]

Possibly, but more likely fear of being exposed.

[tlansford]

A poll is done by a Catholic University in Bangkok, and the title of the "news" article is :

Charter move and Thaksin may spur govt to fall

More editorial propaganda dressed-up as news.

That said, some of the numbers were interesting.

[Sao Jiang Mai]

Those lively useless polls. Thailand is made up again out of just 17 provinces. Even a tiny country like Monaco would consider 2100 people to small for a representative sample. Moreover these agencies are plain lazy, so they always ask the very same people in their database the questions. If you are working in a factory and have during worktime no access to your mobile of computer you are out of luck you will not be polled. Even a child of 5 would understand that all parties plus half the democrat party are unhappy with the toilet paper constitution. the DP however wanted to keep the elite happy and did not brought it up. Thaksin is the reason that the government is in power, if they only had polled in Izan or the North they would have come up with a totally different outcome. Unfortunately, the DP and their sponsors paid for the poll. Expect a lot more of useless polls all published by the mouthpiece of the Yellow Shirt and royalists daily newsletter "the Nation".

Polls predicted too that PT would not even come close to a majority till the exit polls came and than the numbers were wrong again. Just ignore these charlatans.

It is a poll, not a vote where every voice gets to express themselves: http://www.abacpoll.au.edu/qa/main.html. 17 provinces, if selected fairly, does represent a cross section of the coutnry. So, when these same polls predicted a PT win before the electoin, I didn't see any of you mocking it! Why would you do so now just because you dissagree with it. Just about every Thai I know, red, yellow, neutral, thinks that Thaksin should butt out of politics. Why would you doubt that a majority feels that way? Yes, Thaksin was instrumental in helping PT win, but the people are not ready to let him run amock either. There are limits to their faith and confidence in him and his recent - well, his general - behaviour is eroding that confidence. Many voted for PT because they believed a large win would bring stability, Thaksin's antics are not helping them achieve that. And how is ABAC a mouthpeice of the yellowshirts? I am terribly confused. And what poll predicted that the PT would not get a majority? Not any I read leading up to the election! Most of them said PT would win for sure, but not by this large a margin.

[Arkady]

"My brother knows the prevailing mood of the people, this is why he has never been involved in politics," she said, insisting Thaksin only gave advice but had no direct role in the decision-making process.

That's why he bankrolled the election, installed his <snip> younger sister as nominee PM and hand picked the cabinet. 555.

Edited August 22, 2011 by soundman
Removed un-acceptable desriptor.