Tropical Storm Ophelia forms in the central Tropical Atlantic

[News_Editor]

Tropical Storm Ophelia forms in the central Tropical Atlantic

2011-09-21 19:17:52 GMT+7 (ICT)

MIAMI (BNO NEWS) -- Tropical Storm Ophelia formed over the central Tropical Atlantic on late Tuesday evening, forecasters said. It is expected to affect the Caribbean later this week.

Forecasters at the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) have been following the weather system since Friday afternoon when it emerged as a low pressure system in association with a tropical wave several hundred miles (kilometers) southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. It quickly became better organized on Monday and Tuesday.

"The low over the Tropical Atlantic has finally coalesced about a single circulation center and has enough organized deep convection to be considered a tropical cyclone," NHC senior hurricane specialist Michael Brennan said on Tuesday evening.

As of 5 a.m. EDT (0900 GMT) on Wednesday, the center of Ophelia was located about 1,370 miles (2,205 kilometers) east of the Leeward Islands. It is moving toward the west near 13 miles (20 kilometers) per hour, a general motion which is expected to continue through the next several days with a slight increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds of Ophelia are near 45 miles (75 kilometers) per hour, with higher gusts, and some slight strengthening is possible during the next days although it is unlikely the storm will become a hurricane at any point this week.

"Curved convective bands over the northern and southern portions of the large circulation have become a little better defined this morning, however there is still a lack of deep convection near the center of the tropical storm," NHC senior hurricane specialist Daniel Brown said on Wednesday morning.

The upper-level wind pattern ahead of Ophelia does not favor significant strengthening and moderate southwesterly shear currently over the cyclone is expected to become more westerly and increase later this week as an upper-level low forms north of Puerto Rico. "Most of the intensity guidance agrees with this scenario and calls for only little additional strengthening," Brown said.

As of Wednesday morning, the NHC forecasts Ophelia to be just north of Antigua and Barbuda on early Sunday morning. It will then continue moving toward the northwest, being located north of Puerto Rico on early Monday morning. However, forecasts later this week will better determine which countries are at risk.

Ophelia is the fifteenth named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, following Tropical Storm Nate which formed in the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico earlier this month. It made landfall in Mexico, killing four people.

According to figures released last month, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is expecting an above-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic this year. The outlook calls for 14 to 19 named storms, with seven to ten becoming hurricanes and three to five expected to become a major hurricane (category 3 or higher).

An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes and two becoming major hurricanes. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, with peak activity in September.

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