Tropical depression forms off Mexico's Pacific coast, forecast to become hurricane

[News_Editor]

Tropical depression forms off Mexico's Pacific coast, forecast to become hurricane

2011-10-06 17:42:15 GMT+7 (ICT)

MIAMI (BNO NEWS) -- A tropical depression formed far off the Pacific coast of Mexico on Wednesday evening, forecasters said, and the system could potentially threaten Mexico as a hurricane next week.

Forecasters at the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) have been following the weather system since Tuesday evening when it emerged as an area of disturbed weather several hundred miles (kilometers) south-southwest of Acapulco, a major sea port on the Pacific Coast of Mexico. It quickly became better organized and developed into a tropical depression on Wednesday evening.

As of 2 a.m. PDT (0900 GMT) on Thursday, the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located about 610 miles (980 kilometers) south of Manzanillo, a municipality in the Mexican state of Colima which is also home to the country's busiest port. It is moving toward the west-northwest at a speed near 9 miles (15 kilometers) per hour.

"The cyclone should move on a general west-northwestward course for the next couple of days due to a ridge centered just offshore of southwestern Mexico," said NHC hurricane specialist Eric Blake. "This ridge is likely to break down by day 3 (Sunday) as a strong mid-latitude trough dives through the southwestern United States into northwestern Mexico, causing the tropical cyclone to slow down and turn northeastward."

While the current NHC forecast shows a possible landfall on the Mexican coast on early Tuesday morning, Blake cautioned that the forecast track is still likely to change as the depression is in its formative stage. "Adjustments may need to occur later today," he said.

As of early Thursday morning, maximum sustained winds of Ten-E were near 35 miles (55 kilometers) per hour, with higher gusts. "The forecast upper-level wind environment from the global models appears favorable for intensification, and since the depression will be moving over warm waters, this system will likely strengthen," Blake explained.

The NHC forecasts expect Ten-E to become a tropical storm later on Thursday before strengthening into a category one hurricane on Saturday. Forecasts during the weekend will determine which areas, if any, are at risk.

Ten-E is the tenth depression of the 2011 Eastern Pacific hurricane season, following Category 4 Hurricane Hilary which moved along the Pacific coast of Mexico in late September, causing some damage and evacuations but no casualties.

Ten-E is expected to be named either Irwin or Jova, depending on whether Ten-E becomes a tropical storm before Tropical Depression Eleven-E does. Both depressions are expected to become a tropical storm on Thursday.

According to figures released in May, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is expecting a below normal hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific this year. The outlook calls for 9 to 15 named storms, with five to eight becoming hurricanes and one to three expected to become a major hurricane (category 3 or higher).

An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season produces 15 to 16 named storms, with eight to nine becoming hurricanes and four becoming major hurricanes. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 through November 30, with peak activity from July through September.

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