Experts Play Down Risk To Bangkok: Flood Crisis

[webfact]

Experts play down risk to Bangkok

The Nation

While the severe inundation of Ayutthaya and Nakhon Sawan was inciting wild rumours and panic among residents of downstream Bangkok, a former irrigation chief yesterday played down the flood risk to the capital.

"Don't worry too much about the situation," Pramote Maiklad said. If the Chao Phraya River overflows, the water is unlikely to reach the inner city, as it is protected by strong floodwalls and road designs, he said.

If it rains, Sukhumvit, Lat Phrao and Bang Kapi might see slight flooding, if any at all, as the water can be drained out fast enough, he added.

The outskirts - such as Nong Chok, Min Buri, Pathum Thani's Rangsit district and Nonthaburi's Bang Kruay and Pak Kret districts - will not suffer from floods for a long time, thanks to the city's well-designed flood-prevention and drainage infrastructure.

The Ping, Wang, Yom and Nan river levels are stable, while the Bhumibol and Sirikit dams are releasing less water.

The flow in Nakhon Sawan was measured at 4,668 cubic metres and the level had increased only slightly in the past day or two, so there is no need to fear the northern run-off, Pramote said.

The Chao Phraya River was running at 3,660-3,500 cubic metres, which was regarded as stable, and there was not much rain falling.

The flood situation should improve gradually, so now it is only a matter of controlling the flood and draining the deluge into the sea, he said.

Narong Jirasappakunakorn, director for the drainage information system division of the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration's Department of Drainage and Sewerage, said the city could divert water in eastern Bangkok through the San Saeb and Prawet Burirom canals into the sea.

The drainage capacity is 20 million cubic metres per day in case of no rain and 10 million cubic metres in case of rain, he said.

The areas outside the floodwalls in Min Buri, Nong Chok and Lat Krabang districts will be slightly affected.

Klong Sam Wa district's Phromjai Pattana, Suksan Pattana, Thong Pattana, Lat Nimitsampan, Suksamran Pattana communities will suffer up to 80 centimetres of flood water.

In western Bangkok, the city diverted flood water from Nonthaburi, running at 3 million cubic metres per day, via Thaveewattana Canal out into the ocean, Narong said.

-- The Nation 2011-10-13

[webfact]

Race Against Time

The Nation

Yingluck says HM is very worried about people affected by floods , PM confident inner city will be safe ; Sukhumband: Mix of factors hold key

Authorities are going all out in their efforts to protect the capital from flooding.

His Majesty the King suggested yesterday that the government expedite release of water from the eastern parts of Bangkok into the sea to help reduce flood waters in upstream provinces, Prime Minister Yingluck said last night following an audience with the King.

Yingluck said that the authorities would speed up dredging of canals in the eastern parts of the capital to help push water into the sea. She would also inspect the western parts of Bangkok today to determine the areas for releasing water from upriver.

She said His Majesty noted that water was plentiful this year and flooding had caused much damage in many areas of the country. "His Majesty has much concern for the people. I told him about we have done to take care of the people," the prime minister said.

Meanwhile, Pathum Thani Governor Phirasak Hummueangkao yesterday proposed that the government declare a state of emergency in his province so as to stop locals trying to break down temporary flood barriers. Made of sandbags, these barriers have played a crucial role in shielding the capital from floods that have wreaked havoc in dozens of provinces.

"I have now asked soldiers to guard the floodwalls," Phirasak said yesterday. He said many flood-hit people had made several attempts to destroy the 1.5-metre-high sandbag wall along Sam Khok-Pathum Thani Road in Sam Khok district, without regard for others. "I have told police to take action against them. These people are trying to target others for their trouble," Phirasak said.

The 6-kilometre-long flood barrier prevents the water in Pathum Thani from flowing to other provinces.

Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra said the people of Pathum Thani were now under stress. She pinned hopes on the fact that there is a floodwall under the care of the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) along the shared borders.

The PM said she decided against declaring a state of emergency because the country was fighting natural disasters, not flood-hit people."We are trying to explain to people that water is now everywhere." She said some parts of the capital would be affected, too, but she believed inner Bangkok would be safe. As of press time, water 40-50 centimetres deep had covered many areas of Bangkok's Nong Chok, Klong Sam Wa, Min Buri and Lat Krabang districts.

Bangkok Governor MR Sukhumbhand Paribatra inspected the floodwall along the Rangsit Prayoonsak Canal in Pathum Thani's Muang district. "We have raised the height of the floodwall by another 20cm. I have added another row of sandbags to reinforce the structure," he said.

More than 200,000 sandbags have been used to create this floodwall and shield Bangkok as well as a key zone of Pathum Thani. A massive amount of run-off water from the upper part of the country is now racing southwards to the Gulf of Thailand. When it reached Ayutthaya, the old capital was virtually submerged.

The BMA is monitoring the situation around the clock. The water level in the Chao Phraya River in Bangkok's Thawee Watthana district reached 2.01 metres above mean sea level while the concrete embankment there stood 2.5 metres high.

"The situation is still under control but there are many factors involved," Sukhumbhand said.

He pointed at possible downpours, run-off water from the North, and the high tide. "It's quite certain that the run-off water will arrive during the high-tide period. It will come between October 16 and 18," the governor said.

In a bid to reduce flood risks, the BMA was urgently pushing water out of the Saensaeb Canal into the giant water tunnel of Phra Khanong. The operation affected water levels along the canal, forcing boat services between Pratunam and Phan Fah Bridge to be suspended.

Speaking in his capacity as the head of the Flood Relief Operation Command, Justice Minister Pol General Pracha Promnok said the government was doing its best to protect the capital from inundation.

"But at this point, we have to warn people to be on full alert. Water has now almost surrounded Bangkok. Embankment and flood barriers have kept much of the water out but the situation will become very worrying if a storm comes in," he said.

Yingluck urged people to take precautions without panicking. "Please move your belongings to higher ground if you live in low-lying or flood-prone areas," she said.

-- The Nation 2011-10-13

[Arkady]

In Thailand you need to watch the weighted average opinion of "experts". There are many government officials and others offering "expert" opinions, many of whom are politicians whose main areas of expertise are lying, intimidation and theft. The most credible expert, Mr Smith of the disaster control centre, who was ignored before and after he predicted the 2005 tsunami, says that Bangkok has had it. According to him the BMA is not credible and are just trying to cover up the fact that they failed to do anything about the critical parts of the floodwalls that are in other provinces just outside Bangkok. Much of the floodwalls have been built by independent building contractors on the usual corrupt criteria with no supervision from water management experts and will collapse quickly. Other parts outside the city limits are not even finished and have been hastily built by amateurs with mud and sandbags to a height of only 1.5 metres against expected water levels of 2.5 metres. The dams are full only because puyai boneheads at EGAT and other uncoordinated agencies feared they wouldn't have enough water this year and hoarded it instead of releasing it gradually before the heavy rains started. Now they are the main cause of the problem as they release huge volumes of water into already flooded communities.

Thus pronouncements by people with conflicts of interest like the ex-girl guide PM, the ex-stockbroker deputy PM, the army chief, the Bangkok governor etc should be accorded close to a zero weighting. It is important for them to be able to claim after the disaster they did all they could but had no idea what was coming. Unfortunately they have the loudest voices.

Edited October 13, 2011 by Arkady

[Thai at Heart]

In Thailand you need to watch the weighted average opinion of "experts". There are many government officials and others offering "expert" opinions, many of whom are politicians whose main areas of expertise are lying, intimidation and theft. The most credible expert, Mr Smith of the disaster control centre, who was ignored before and after he predicted the 2005 tsunami, says that Bangkok has had it. According to him the BMA is not credible and are just trying to cover up the fact that they failed to do anything about the critical parts of the floodwalls that are in other provinces just outside Bangkok. Much of the floodwalls have been built by independent building contractors on the usual corrupt criteria with no supervision from water management experts and will collapse quickly. Other parts outside the city limits are not even finished and have been hastily built by amateurs with mud and sandbags to a height of only 1.5 metres against expected water levels of 2.5 metres.

True enough, but one can only presume that the statement that 'we can handle this' is in the English language news only. They may have a vested interest, but sticking one's head out like this is very rare if there is a change you are likely to be proven wrong only a day or two later.

[OzMick]

" Pathum Thani Governor Phirasak Hummueangkao yesterday proposed that the government declare a state of emergency in his province........."

I guess this refutes the claim that governors have the power to declare a state of emergency.

[svenivan]

"Narong Jirasappakunakorn, director for the drainage information system division of the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration's Department of Drainage and Sewerage, said the city could divert water in eastern Bangkok through the San Saeb and Prawet Burirom canals into the sea.

The drainage capacity is 20 million cubic metres per day in case of no rain and 10 million cubic metres in case of rain, he said."

So when will they start that? They should have started that 2 weeks ago!

Bangkok, the Hub for idiots!

[OzMick]

"Narong Jirasappakunakorn, director for the drainage information system division of the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration's Department of Drainage and Sewerage, said the city could divert water in eastern Bangkok through the San Saeb and Prawet Burirom canals into the sea.

The drainage capacity is 20 million cubic metres per day in case of no rain and 10 million cubic metres in case of rain, he said."

So when will they start that? They should have started that 2 weeks ago!

Bangkok, the Hub for idiots!

If you look at the big red dot on the map, that is the densely populated area that will be flooded as a result.

[culicine]

Are the discharge figures still accurate at 4000 cumecs over the next few days?

...found a good artile here about the previous 1995 flood

http://std.cpc.ku.ac.th/delta/conf/Acrobat/Papers_Eng/Volume%201/Wirat%20RID.pdf

Edited October 13, 2011 by culicine

[longtom]

The PM said she decided against declaring a state of emergency because the country was fighting natural disasters, not flood-hit people.

I find this statement extremely bizarre.

Edited October 13, 2011 by longtom

[hyperdimension]

The PM said she decided against declaring a state of emergency because the country was fighting natural disasters, not flood-hit people.

I find this statement extremely bizarre.

So if the country was fighting flood-hit people, then she would declare a State of Emergency. Thais should be embarrassed for having her as a Prime Minister.

[tommyyoung]

The PM said she decided against declaring a state of emergency because the country was fighting natural disasters, not flood-hit people.

I find this statement extremely bizarre.

So if the country was fighting flood-hit people, then she would declare a State of Emergency. Thais should be embarrassed for having her as a Prime Minister.

Please show some respect for Thai people who chose their government.

It's not time to play with words or politics and strumentalize everything. This is the worst thing to do in these situations.

[zydeco]

The PM said she decided against declaring a state of emergency because the country was fighting natural disasters, not flood-hit people.

I find this statement extremely bizarre.

So if the country was fighting flood-hit people, then she would declare a State of Emergency. Thais should be embarrassed for having her as a Prime Minister.

Please show some respect for Thai people who chose their government.

It's not time to play with words or politics and strumentalize everything. This is the worst thing to do in these situations.

What?

[edwinchester]

Wifey has just told me that all tv channels have been announcing some sort of breach of flood defences in northern bkk and some areas must be urgently evacuated.

[mdechgan]

Wifey has just told me that all tv channels have been announcing some sort of breach of flood defences in northern bkk and some areas must be urgently evacuated.

I think a water gate in Pathum Thani broke.

[apetley]

Not good news. NBT even had the evacuation notice read out in English by a govt spokesman for the benefit of foreigners.

[rubl]

URGENT! Evacuations in Northern Bkk

UPDATE : 13 October 2011

The national flood center has announced that residents living in northern Bangkok, including the Klong Luang, Thammasat Rangsit, AIT, Northern Rangsit, Lum Luk Ka, Sai Mai, Rangsit, Pathum Thani, and Don Muang areas, should evacuate the area as major sand dikes in Pathum Thani Province have collapsed. Officials are saying that residents have 7 hours before floodwater hits the area. Residents are urged to bring their cars to the cargo area of Don Muang Airport.

-- Tan Network 2011-10-13

Strangely enough just a moment ago we also had

"In a live telecast broadcast on TV pool, flood relief centre director Pol Gen Pracha Phromnok assures the public that there is no need to panic as the government can cope with the situation."

[BuckarooBanzai]

The PM said she decided against declaring a state of emergency because the country was fighting natural disasters, not flood-hit people.

I find this statement extremely bizarre.

Maybe she is being sensitive to the fact a good portion of Thailand has been living under a state of emergency up until very recently. All politically motivated. The terminology is a bit tainted. As long as she takes constructive action the words are unimportant.

[serenitynow]

URGENT! Evacuations in Northern Bkk

UPDATE : 13 October 2011

The national flood center has announced that residents living in northern Bangkok, including the Klong Luang, Thammasat Rangsit, AIT, Northern Rangsit, Lum Luk Ka, Sai Mai, Rangsit, Pathum Thani, and Don Muang areas, should evacuate the area as major sand dikes in Pathum Thani Province have collapsed. Officials are saying that residents have 7 hours before floodwater hits the area. Residents are urged to bring their cars to the cargo area of Don Muang Airport.

-- Tan Network 2011-10-13

Strangely enough just a moment ago we also had

"In a live telecast broadcast on TV pool, flood relief centre director Pol Gen Pracha Phromnok assures the public that there is no need to panic as the government can cope with the situation."

How is it that a cop, who has been appointed Justice Minister comes to be Flood Relief Director? Surely there's nothing to steal yet?

[Crushdepth]

The PM said she decided against declaring a state of emergency because the country was fighting natural disasters, not flood-hit people.

I find this statement extremely bizarre.

So if the country was fighting flood-hit people, then she would declare a State of Emergency. Thais should be embarrassed for having her as a Prime Minister.

Please show some respect for Thai people who chose their government.

It's not time to play with words or politics and strumentalize everything. This is the worst thing to do in these situations.

The government handling of the situation is incompetent and pathetically disorganised. They should be condemned for it, as happens in every democratic country. Nothing else is going to make them lift their game.

[h90]

The government handling of the situation is incompetent and pathetically disorganised. They should be condemned for it, as happens in every democratic country. Nothing else is going to make them lift their game.

And the election was full vote buying. No clean election at all.

[sprq]

In Thailand you need to watch the weighted average opinion of "experts". There are many government officials and others offering "expert" opinions, many of whom are politicians whose main areas of expertise are lying, intimidation and theft. The most credible expert, Mr Smith of the disaster control centre, who was ignored before and after he predicted the 2005 tsunami, says that Bangkok has had it. According to him the BMA is not credible and are just trying to cover up the fact that they failed to do anything about the critical parts of the floodwalls that are in other provinces just outside Bangkok. Much of the floodwalls have been built by independent building contractors on the usual corrupt criteria with no supervision from water management experts and will collapse quickly. Other parts outside the city limits are not even finished and have been hastily built by amateurs with mud and sandbags to a height of only 1.5 metres against expected water levels of 2.5 metres. The dams are full only because puyai boneheads at EGAT and other uncoordinated agencies feared they wouldn't have enough water this year and hoarded it instead of releasing it gradually before the heavy rains started. Now they are the main cause of the problem as they release huge volumes of water into already flooded communities.

Thus pronouncements by people with conflicts of interest like the ex-girl guide PM, the ex-stockbroker deputy PM, the army chief, the Bangkok governor etc should be accorded close to a zero weighting. It is important for them to be able to claim after the disaster they did all they could but had no idea what was coming. Unfortunately they have the loudest voices.

Bullseye!

[GazR]

I live in Rangsit Klong 4, so I will nip out to canvas local opinion.

[metisdead]

An off topic post has been removed as well as an inflammatory retort to that post. Posts which are off topic will continue to be deleted.

[trevorg]

Not sure where to post as people are asking for specifics, and I've driven through many areas in the past 36 hours. It has been raining 90% of the drive time and heavily (torrential) for 50%. However it was not raining from 6pm yesterday until 2pm today in NE Bangkok.

12/10/11 Midday - drive from Pattaya on the '7' , heavy rain until the motorway round Chonburi light rain on and off to Swampy - no sign of flooding and the minor Khlongs whilst fuller than usual nowhere near breaking (>2m) from breaking banks. No problems on the 9 going North (outer ring road). Left on the 304 Minburi (Raminthra Rd) ground level - again no signs of any size Khlongs anywhere near breaking banks.

12/10/11 6pm - drove around the area for 2 hours - (I admit I got lost) no rain and no flooding

13/10/11 No overnight rain and no flooding all morning, went to Foodland in Raminthra Soi 31 (for the first time) - all shelves fully stocked and no flooding - surprised to see no Farang (I've only ever been to Foodland in Pattaya before.

13/10/11 Drove out past Minburi on the 304 towards Chaechoengsao, no flooding except for a 3km stretch where the water was 1/2 way up the inside lane (2 ways each direction), but no more than 8" deep, traffic slow. Turned left to cross the river. River looked much wider than usual, but still more than a metre below the banks (that I could see from the bridge). However there was alot more traffic than usual - obviously avoiding the direct routes North and heading east before heading north.

No problems until just before Kabinburi - and then it started lashing down with rain and the single lane (1 each way) highway was extremely poor visibility but again not flooded! This is a route with notoriously bad sections of bad pot-holes - you can't judge their depth when they're underwater - but the mini-vans and big 'gambler' buses heading to or from PoiPet seem to know where they are and veer across the road towards you - either oncoming or from behind (forcing you into the 'hard (or should that be soft) shoulder)!

Stopped raining by Wattana Nakhon and a dry and relaxing with no floods journey home to Ta Phraya.

[zzaa008]

I live in Rangsit Klong 4, so I will nip out to canvas local opinion.

Excellent. But if I'm right, the flooding (if it does happen) won't hit round here until very early morning.

At 8pm there was a report saying it would take 7 hours to hit Rangsit / Don Muang.

[GazR]

I have just been informd by a usually dependable source that a) there has been a subsequent radio broadcast claiming that the authorities have repaired the breached levy bank, and 2) the authorities claim is viewed as lacking credibility. So yes, people are starting to worry that the government has lost control of the situation and that the whole district of Lamlukka may well be flooded by tomorrow morning.

Edited October 13, 2011 by GazR

[RickBradford]

Undeniably the authorities will protect central Bangkok at the expense of anywhere else since this is the economic engine of the country and also the home of the most advanced infrastructure.

How much would it cost, indirectly and directly, if the MRT were inundated?

Without Bangkok, this country grinds to a halt economically, and the up-country people will unfortunately have to suffer in the face of that reality.

[trevorg]

Undeniably the authorities will protect central Bangkok at the expense of anywhere else since this is the economic engine of the country and also the home of the most advanced infrastructure.

How much would it cost, indirectly and directly, if the MRT were inundated?

Without Bangkok, this country grinds to a halt economically, and the up-country people will unfortunately have to suffer in the face of that reality.

An interesting point, and maybe one on which you can enlighten us further, what are the MRTs flood defences? How and when are they activated? Whilst the Skytrain can hold out for a while (providing the foundations hold), I'd be interested to know about the capabilities of the underground system, how big are their pumps and where are they powered from? etc

[GentlemanJim]

Undeniably the authorities will protect central Bangkok at the expense of anywhere else since this is the economic engine of the country and also the home of the most advanced infrastructure.

How much would it cost, indirectly and directly, if the MRT were inundated?

Without Bangkok, this country grinds to a halt economically, and the up-country people will unfortunately have to suffer in the face of that reality.

An interesting point, and maybe one on which you can enlighten us further, what are the MRTs flood defences? How and when are they activated? Whilst the Skytrain can hold out for a while (providing the foundations hold), I'd be interested to know about the capabilities of the underground system, how big are their pumps and where are they powered from? etc

Trev

Too many questions, too deep! Try doing some work for your answers. Google is your friend.

[rishi]

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/admin/specials/sound/file/Oct-13-flood-release.jpg

"Narong Jirasappakunakorn, director for the drainage information system division of the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration's Department of Drainage and Sewerage, said the city could divert water in eastern Bangkok through the San Saeb and Prawet Burirom canals into the sea.

The drainage capacity is 20 million cubic metres per day in case of no rain and 10 million cubic metres in case of rain, he said."


So when will they start that? They should have started that 2 weeks ago!

Bangkok, the Hub for idiots!

If you look at the big red dot on the map, that is the densely populated area that will be flooded as a result.

Actually, it's the other way around. According to the textbox, the big red dot is an area already inundated (I think that was the news around Friday/Sat last week). Saen Saeb is the blue line coming from the far east, running right through the center and continuing down to the Lower Sukhumwit area and Chao Phrao River. As can be seen from the grahics, Saen Saeb is like the main vein for the network of smaller klongs there are by the plenty in the inundated area. So all in all Saen Saeb is a prominent means of drainage for a quite large area to the East-north east of central Bangkok. I live only 100 meters away from Saen Saeb as it passes through the Bang Kapi area and can confirm, what others have said, if water levels of Saen Saeb is any different now than e.g. 3 months ago, it would perhaps be a bit lower. Certainly, the lower water level can't be because there is no water to drain where it comes from but because the gates have been closed out in the area it was supposed to drain in order to save inner Bangkok. Not that I complain, but clearly someone else is paying for my dry feet.