Northern Bangkok Under Threat

[Estrada]

I have to admit to being a bit confused over the flooding of these important industrial estates . Many many thousand jobs will be lost , inflicting long term losses even after the water recedes. I used to build houses in Western Alaska, near the mouth of the Yukon river. This area is a massive flood plain, and everyone knew it. So if you built a house, you would research the highest water level for the past 100 years, and build the house on stilts a foot above that mark. So no problems no matter what flood came. .... With these industrial estates, billions of dollars are at stake. I simply cannot believe the developers of these estates, knowing full well they are located in a flood plain, did not build strong walls all around them at a height above the 100 year flood mark. I suspect there will be a lot of Japanese factory managers asking the same questions, as they plan where to move their factory. I think this will be a case of penny wise dollar foolish, saving money by building low walls that were easily breeched.

A report published by the United Nations’ IRIN magazine last year said that flooding in Bangkok is likely to get so severe by the middle of this century that parts of the Thai capital may have to be abandoned.

“Subsidence and poor urban planning have resulted in Bangkok gradually sinking between 2cm and 5cm a year,” the report quotes researchers in Thailand.

When I worked on the Solid Waste Master Plan for Bangkok following the 1995 floods, I put forward the proposal to reclaim the the land at the mouth of the river estuary which was being eroded severely by 660metres every 10 years. However this was thrown out because of corruption, since the land was free there was no "benefit" to the BMA.

There have been many Master Plans for Bangkok yet nothing seems to get progressed to fruition due to changes in Government, for this reason the latest Master Plan published in 2001 had a completion date of 2018, with the works being carried out in 3 stages.

The industrial estates in Ayuthaya were built on the flood plain and the designers and Government knew about the flood risk, but flood mitigation work was not implemented properly.

As far as I can see, had Thaksin been left in power in 2006, the major works could have been carried on and completed without these disasterous floods. The problem with Thailand prior to Thaksin, and after Thaksin due to the coup, there is no continuity of power and projects get suspended or held up.

[EyesWideOpen]

I have to admit to being a bit confused over the flooding of these important industrial estates . Many many thousand jobs will be lost , inflicting long term losses even after the water recedes. I used to build houses in Western Alaska, near the mouth of the Yukon river. This area is a massive flood plain, and everyone knew it. So if you built a house, you would research the highest water level for the past 100 years, and build the house on stilts a foot above that mark. So no problems no matter what flood came. .... With these industrial estates, billions of dollars are at stake. I simply cannot believe the developers of these estates, knowing full well they are located in a flood plain, did not build strong walls all around them at a height above the 100 year flood mark. I suspect there will be a lot of Japanese factory managers asking the same questions, as they plan where to move their factory. I think this will be a case of penny wise dollar foolish, saving money by building low walls that were easily breeched.

A report published by the United Nations' IRIN magazine last year said that flooding in Bangkok is likely to get so severe by the middle of this century that parts of the Thai capital may have to be abandoned.

"Subsidence and poor urban planning have resulted in Bangkok gradually sinking between 2cm and 5cm a year," the report quotes researchers in Thailand.

When I worked on the Solid Waste Master Plan for Bangkok following the 1995 floods, I put forward the proposal to reclaim the the land at the mouth of the river estuary which was being eroded severely by 660metres every 10 years. However this was thrown out because of corruption, since the land was free there was no "benefit" to the BMA.

There have been many Master Plans for Bangkok yet nothing seems to get progressed to fruition due to changes in Government, for this reason the latest Master Plan published in 2001 had a completion date of 2018, with the works being carried out in 3 stages.

The industrial estates in Ayuthaya were built on the flood plain and the designers and Government knew about the flood risk, but flood mitigation work was not implemented properly.

As far as I can see, had Thaksin been left in power in 2006, the major works could have been carried on and completed without these disasterous floods. The problem with Thailand prior to Thaksin, and after Thaksin due to the coup, there is no continuity of power and projects get suspended or held up.

Excellent post, thanks. I also agree that the problem is the disparity between governments that come and go like the wind, and the long term planning and massive capital outlay needed to deal with this flooding on an effective basis. Maybe this flood will be the wake up call......Although it is a bit surreal to see video clips of Bangkok flooding in 1945.

[tominbkk]

I remember 0.5m down Sukhumvit road near Emporium

Remarkable, the Emporium wasn't built or operating then ( 1995 ).

[anterian]

Replying to comments from Arkady and Estrada it is good to meet a reasoned discussion. Lack of continuity is always a problem when different administrations try to make political capital out of disaster scenarios, one solution to this, in a functioning democracy, is a cross party coordinating committee. I had hopes of this briefly last week when Yingluck and Abhisit met, but nothing seems to have resulted from that encounter.

It is always easy for the party in opposition to criticise the party in power, but the criticism seems more scornful than constructive. Equally we all know the way Thai politicians think and function, so obviously there have been many errors and missed opportunities by previous governments.

There is one major difference this time, the last flood of this magnitude had no TV coverage, no facebook or twitter or mobile phones, no industrial sites were inundated, the world was not watching. This time also it is not just the farmers and country folk who are affected but also the industrialists. Perhaps when the waters recede this might be enough to see a real effort put into a future water management scheme. .

[philw]

I have to admit to being a bit confused over the flooding of these important industrial estates . Many many thousand jobs will be lost , inflicting long term losses even after the water recedes. I used to build houses in Western Alaska, near the mouth of the Yukon river. This area is a massive flood plain, and everyone knew it. So if you built a house, you would research the highest water level for the past 100 years, and build the house on stilts a foot above that mark. So no problems no matter what flood came. .... With these industrial estates, billions of dollars are at stake. I simply cannot believe the developers of these estates, knowing full well they are located in a flood plain, did not build strong walls all around them at a height above the 100 year flood mark. I suspect there will be a lot of Japanese factory managers asking the same questions, as they plan where to move their factory. I think this will be a case of penny wise dollar foolish, saving money by building low walls that were easily breeched.

A report published by the United Nations’ IRIN magazine last year said that flooding in Bangkok is likely to get so severe by the middle of this century that parts of the Thai capital may have to be abandoned.

“Subsidence and poor urban planning have resulted in Bangkok gradually sinking between 2cm and 5cm a year,” the report quotes researchers in Thailand.

When I worked on the Solid Waste Master Plan for Bangkok following the 1995 floods, I put forward the proposal to reclaim the the land at the mouth of the river estuary which was being eroded severely by 660metres every 10 years. However this was thrown out because of corruption, since the land was free there was no "benefit" to the BMA.

There have been many Master Plans for Bangkok yet nothing seems to get progressed to fruition due to changes in Government, for this reason the latest Master Plan published in 2001 had a completion date of 2018, with the works being carried out in 3 stages.

The industrial estates in Ayuthaya were built on the flood plain and the designers and Government knew about the flood risk, but flood mitigation work was not implemented properly.

As far as I can see, had Thaksin been left in power in 2006, the major works could have been carried on and completed without these disasterous floods. The problem with Thailand prior to Thaksin, and after Thaksin due to the coup, there is no continuity of power and projects get suspended or held up.

That final para will have them spitting feathers...............

Probably true as well.

[philw]

Replying to comments from Arkady and Estrada it is good to meet a reasoned discussion. Lack of continuity is always a problem when different administrations try to make political capital out of disaster scenarios, one solution to this, in a functioning democracy, is a cross party coordinating committee. I had hopes of this briefly last week when Yingluck and Abhisit met, but nothing seems to have resulted from that encounter.

It is always easy for the party in opposition to criticise the party in power, but the criticism seems more scornful than constructive. Equally we all know the way Thai politicians think and function, so obviously there have been many errors and missed opportunities by previous governments.

There is one major difference this time, the last flood of this magnitude had no TV coverage, no facebook or twitter or mobile phones, no industrial sites were inundated, the world was not watching. This time also it is not just the farmers and country folk who are affected but also the industrialists. Perhaps when the waters recede this might be enough to see a real effort put into a future water management scheme. .

Very much hope so.

[EvilDrSomkid]

Replying to comments from Arkady and Estrada it is good to meet a reasoned discussion. Lack of continuity is always a problem when different administrations try to make political capital out of disaster scenarios, one solution to this, in a functioning democracy, is a cross party coordinating committee. I had hopes of this briefly last week when Yingluck and Abhisit met, but nothing seems to have resulted from that encounter.

It is always easy for the party in opposition to criticise the party in power, but the criticism seems more scornful than constructive. Equally we all know the way Thai politicians think and function, so obviously there have been many errors and missed opportunities by previous governments.

There is one major difference this time, the last flood of this magnitude had no TV coverage, no facebook or twitter or mobile phones, no industrial sites were inundated, the world was not watching. This time also it is not just the farmers and country folk who are affected but also the industrialists. Perhaps when the waters recede this might be enough to see a real effort put into a future water management scheme. .

Very much hope so.

Forgive me for being cynical, but I would not hold my breath.

The posts by Estrada are very enlightening.

Once again, evidence that NOTHING happens in this country unless someone is making a bundle of cash out of it.

[WarpSpeed]

The politicians allowed most of the canals such as Sathorn to be filled in on advice from the Americans (who are being blamed by some for causing the floods).

Yes of course it was, even though the country is only 235 years old, some believe it's responsible for the crucifixtion of Christ too ..

[serenitynow]

I believe people who write a post like this should be required to begin with, I am from *name of country* Clearly, you can not be an American and hold this view. In Hurricane Katrina 1,836 people died, and property losses exceeded $81 billion. Lets not even talk about the oil disaster in the Gulf. Perhaps the UK? OMG...where to begin?

The question is, "Who are you to judge?" By the way, Thailand began planning for this in the 1990's, developed some clever plans, implemented them...and frankly...they are working! Really, you have no idea what you are talking about. Instead of pointing the finger, why not instead "lift it" to help someone today?

The way Thailand has dealt with and dealing with this is a joke, No preparation, Politicians and beauarcrats who are not up to the their jobs, a country where image is everything, substance non exsistent

Sorry you are incorrect. My friend Kritsada Arunvongse na Ayuthaya was Governor of Bangkok at the time of the 1995 floods. I discussed the plans with him at the time. For all strategic locations where considerable damage could be done in the event of a flood, a 1 in 1,000 year flood level should be considered especially as Bangkok is built on land that was reclaimed from the sea at the mouth of the river Chaophraya. At that time we realised that the 2.5metre flood walls would not prevent flooding in the future. He therefore put forward the schemes that you mentioned. The scheme was to raise the flood walls to 5.2metres high along the Chaopraya River and form a ring around Bangkok together with major diversion canals and pumping systems. This scheme was stopped by Banharn as he was PM at the time and from a different political party (i.e. no benefit seen). The Government scheme that went ahead at only 2.5metres high has not worked, otherwise we would not have seen so many Industrial Estates under water as well as parts of Bangkok already. As long as the flood walls remain at 2.5metres there is a real chance of it being breached at the high tide.

Many of the Industrial Estates have been built on cheap land next to the river with flood walls of only around 2.5metres high, most of these Industrial estates such as Hi-Tech and Bang Pa in (where I have worked), have been flooded. On the other hand, Navanakorn Industrial Estate, thanks to Kritsada's foresight; has a flood defence of 5.2metres. Kritsada died last year, however Nipit Arunvongse Na Ayuthya is now Managing Director of Navanakorn.

Currently they are hastily trying to raise the flood wall around Bangkok above 2.5metres high with sand bags, however Bangkok still runs the risk of floods since the October 30th high tide will be 2.3 metres (highest so far 2.19metres), plus the runoff from the north and from further rain. Whilst they are trying to blame younger politicians such as Yingluck and the Science Minister for being inexperienced, it was the older MPs that are still in Government, such as Banharn, that blocked the construction of the dykes to a height of 5.2metres that should be blamed.

Years ago, Bangkok was well drained as it was criss crossed by many drainage canals which were also the means of transport which was nearly all by boat. Bangkok was then known a "The Venice of the East". The politicians allowed most of the canals such as Sathorn to be filled in on advice from the Americans (who are being blamed by some for causing the floods). After filling the canals in, Bangkok was no longer known as the Venice of the East, but the "Land of Smiles", possibly after much money was made from building roads and erecting skyscrapers on what was drainage land. However little consideration appears to have been taken in mitigating the affect of turning the land, which would have absorbed the rains, to concrete. When the land is turned to concrete, the rains are not absorbed and it all has to flow through the greatly reduced capacity drainage system.

At last someone who has something REAL to say rather than just pontificating and posturing. Thanks Estrada.

I guess the salient question to ask these manufacturers is this. Is it worth staying nearby the river and risking getting flooded out every 10 years or so in exchange for your chance to dump whatever toxins you produce in said river, all year every year. Tough call.

[serenitynow]

I have to admit to being a bit confused over the flooding of these important industrial estates . Many many thousand jobs will be lost , inflicting long term losses even after the water recedes. I used to build houses in Western Alaska, near the mouth of the Yukon river. This area is a massive flood plain, and everyone knew it. So if you built a house, you would research the highest water level for the past 100 years, and build the house on stilts a foot above that mark. So no problems no matter what flood came. .... With these industrial estates, billions of dollars are at stake. I simply cannot believe the developers of these estates, knowing full well they are located in a flood plain, did not build strong walls all around them at a height above the 100 year flood mark. I suspect there will be a lot of Japanese factory managers asking the same questions, as they plan where to move their factory. I think this will be a case of penny wise dollar foolish, saving money by building low walls that were easily breeched.

A report published by the United Nations' IRIN magazine last year said that flooding in Bangkok is likely to get so severe by the middle of this century that parts of the Thai capital may have to be abandoned.

"Subsidence and poor urban planning have resulted in Bangkok gradually sinking between 2cm and 5cm a year," the report quotes researchers in Thailand.

When I worked on the Solid Waste Master Plan for Bangkok following the 1995 floods, I put forward the proposal to reclaim the the land at the mouth of the river estuary which was being eroded severely by 660metres every 10 years. However this was thrown out because of corruption, since the land was free there was no "benefit" to the BMA.

There have been many Master Plans for Bangkok yet nothing seems to get progressed to fruition due to changes in Government, for this reason the latest Master Plan published in 2001 had a completion date of 2018, with the works being carried out in 3 stages.

The industrial estates in Ayuthaya were built on the flood plain and the designers and Government knew about the flood risk, but flood mitigation work was not implemented properly.

As far as I can see, had Thaksin been left in power in 2006, the major works could have been carried on and completed without these disasterous floods. The problem with Thailand prior to Thaksin, and after Thaksin due to the coup, there is no continuity of power and projects get suspended or held up.

That final para will have them spitting feathers...............

Probably true as well.

There is some truth in the statement but not for the reason you think. Ever since the coup, both the Land department and the Forest Department took it as an article of faith that he would be back someday. This had more to do with their belief in his ability to buy loyalties and thugs than whetether or not it might be justified. Most business came to a halt in those two departments for nearly 5 years. Thaksin had too much to lose they thought by not coming back.. There were literally hundreds of thousands, though some said millions of rai he and his cronies had in play down near Rayong and on the coast onshore near Ko Chang. Lots of anecdital accounts of forestry theft by frinds of Thaksin here in Chiang Mai and Pai as well. Everything becamr more or less frozen, with officials unsure how to proceed until they saw who their patron would be.

[Imkah]

The way Thailand has dealt with and dealing with this is a joke, No preparation, Politicians and beauarcrats who are not up to the their jobs, a country where image is everything, substance non exsistent

Is this an afterthought - a qualified hind-sight? Or was your decision to settle here based on lore not facts? Sorry a whole country does not live up to your obvious excellent standards. Time to move on, nah? Surely there are problems here, but not a day goes by without me being impressed with how the logistics of a city our size is handled, the handling of floods nonetheless. The weather patterns are changing dramatically, stupid, and we are fighting this all over the world.

My soi used to be calle dog shit lane, - is now renamed dog fish lane.

I wish you all a nice week, and allthough water might be pouring in: the engineers and logistics experts of Thailand have the know-how, experience and expertise to handle this better than most.

[serenitynow]

The way Thailand has dealt with and dealing with this is a joke, No preparation, Politicians and beauarcrats who are not up to the their jobs, a country where image is everything, substance non exsistent

Is this an afterthought - a qualified hind-sight? Or was your decision to settle here based on lore not facts? Sorry a whole country does not live up to your obvious excellent standards. Time to move on, nah? Surely there are problems here, but not a day goes by without me being impressed with how the logistics of a city our size is handled, the handling of floods nonetheless. The weather patterns are changing dramatically, stupid, and we are fighting this all over the world.

My soi used to be calle dog shit lane, - is now renamed dog fish lane.

I wish you all a nice week, and allthough water might be pouring in: the engineers and logistics experts of Thailand have the know-how, experience and expertise to handle this better than most.

Better than most what? Better than most third graders, morons, coyote dancers, wall street analysts, retards? What are you saying?

[Imkah]

[

Sorry you are incorrect. My friend Kritsada Arunvongse na Ayuthaya was Governor of Bangkok at the time of the 1995 floods. I discussed the plans with him at the time. For all strategic locations where considerable damage could be done in the event of a flood, a 1 in 1,000 year flood level should be considered especially as Bangkok is built on land that was reclaimed from the sea at the mouth of the river Chaophraya. At that time we realised that the 2.5metre flood walls would not prevent flooding in the future. He therefore put forward the schemes that you mentioned. The scheme was to raise the flood walls to 5.2metres high along the Chaopraya River and form a ring around Bangkok together with major diversion canals and pumping systems. This scheme was stopped by Banharn as he was PM at the time and from a different political party (i.e. no benefit seen). The Government scheme that went ahead at only 2.5metres high has not worked, otherwise we would not have seen so many Industrial Estates under water as well as parts of Bangkok already. As long as the flood walls remain at 2.5metres there is a real chance of it being breached at the high tide.

Many of the Industrial Estates have been built on cheap land next to the river with flood walls of only around 2.5metres high, most of these Industrial estates such as Hi-Tech and Bang Pa in (where I have worked), have been flooded. On the other hand, Navanakorn Industrial Estate, thanks to Kritsada's foresight; has a flood defence of 5.2metres. Kritsada died last year, however Nipit Arunvongse Na Ayuthya is now Managing Director of Navanakorn.

Currently they are hastily trying to raise the flood wall around Bangkok above 2.5metres high with sand bags, however Bangkok still runs the risk of floods since the October 30th high tide will be 2.3 metres (highest so far 2.19metres), plus the runoff from the north and from further rain. Whilst they are trying to blame younger politicians such as Yingluck and the Science Minister for being inexperienced, it was the older MPs that are still in Government, such as Banharn, that blocked the construction of the dykes to a height of 5.2metres that should be blamed.

Years ago, Bangkok was well drained as it was criss crossed by many drainage canals which were also the means of transport which was nearly all by boat. Bangkok was then known a "The Venice of the East". The politicians allowed most of the canals such as Sathorn to be filled in on advice from the Americans (who are being blamed by some for causing the floods). After filling the canals in, Bangkok was no longer known as the Venice of the East, but the "Land of Smiles", possibly after much money was made from building roads and erecting skyscrapers on what was drainage land. However little consideration appears to have been taken in mitigating the affect of turning the land, which would have absorbed the rains, to concrete. When the land is turned to concrete, the rains are not absorbed and it all has to flow through the greatly reduced capacity drainage system.

Thank you for facts Estrada; the old farts on a hot stone tend to be a bit boring: I don't remember the whole story but the KL trainstation was either not built or torn down and rebuilt because it was not built/designed in accordance with GB regulations; to withstand a minimum of a certain no. of meters of snow. Something's lacking in the way of thinking of the people of the old world, but they're learning and slowly approaching the modern and metric world. Inch by inch.

[BigBikeBKK]

Currently they are hastily trying to raise the flood wall around Bangkok above 2.5metres high with sand bags, however Bangkok still runs the risk of floods since the October 30th high tide will be 2.3 metres (highest so far 2.19metres), plus the runoff from the north and from further rain. Whilst they are trying to blame younger politicians such as Yingluck and the Science Minister for being inexperienced, it was the older MPs that are still in Government, such as Banharn, that blocked the construction of the dykes to a height of 5.2metres that should be blamed.

What exactly is it that you are trying to blame them for? In case you haven't noticed, Bangkok has not flooded.

The existing flood defenses have thus far proven adequate.

Your suggestion that the current 2.5 meter flood walls should be raised to 5.2 meters sounds rather incredible...

[Imkah]

The way Thailand has dealt with and dealing with this is a joke, No preparation, Politicians and beauarcrats who are not up to the their jobs, a country where image is everything, substance non exsistent

Is this an afterthought - a qualified hind-sight? Or was your decision to settle here based on lore not facts? Sorry a whole country does not live up to your obvious excellent standards. Time to move on, nah? Surely there are problems here, but not a day goes by without me being impressed with how the logistics of a city our size is handled, the handling of floods nonetheless. The weather patterns are changing dramatically, stupid, and we are fighting this all over the world.

My soi used to be calle dog shit lane, - is now renamed dog fish lane.

I wish you all a nice week, and allthough water might be pouring in: the engineers and logistics experts of Thailand have the know-how, experience and expertise to handle this better than most.

Better than most what? Better than most third graders, morons, coyote dancers, wall street analysts, retards? What are you saying?

When I wished you all a good week, you were included, or didn't you get that? Take a look at what happens when NY or London gets a few centimeters of snow. Or Copenhagen with it's flooding earlier this year. Norway lost km's with roads and railroadtracks due to flooding this year, but are better than most if snow is pouring down and not if the skies or volcanoes are bursting.

We are good at what is known, - and not if we have to handle the unknown. Thailand is better than most at handling floods and drainage within the known, and at loss otherwise. My point being that this is the same all over the world, corrupt politicians, gambling gf or not, and perhaps the climate changes would be better off with a wee less hot air from the members of TV? Have a good one!

[pastitche]

I have to admit to being a bit confused over the flooding of these important industrial estates . Many many thousand jobs will be lost , inflicting long term losses even after the water recedes. I used to build houses in Western Alaska, near the mouth of the Yukon river. This area is a massive flood plain, and everyone knew it. So if you built a house, you would research the highest water level for the past 100 years, and build the house on stilts a foot above that mark. So no problems no matter what flood came. .... With these industrial estates, billions of dollars are at stake. I simply cannot believe the developers of these estates, knowing full well they are located in a flood plain, did not build strong walls all around them at a height above the 100 year flood mark. I suspect there will be a lot of Japanese factory managers asking the same questions, as they plan where to move their factory. I think this will be a case of penny wise dollar foolish, saving money by building low walls that were easily breeched.

A report published by the United Nations' IRIN magazine last year said that flooding in Bangkok is likely to get so severe by the middle of this century that parts of the Thai capital may have to be abandoned.

"Subsidence and poor urban planning have resulted in Bangkok gradually sinking between 2cm and 5cm a year," the report quotes researchers in Thailand.

When I worked on the Solid Waste Master Plan for Bangkok following the 1995 floods, I put forward the proposal to reclaim the the land at the mouth of the river estuary which was being eroded severely by 660metres every 10 years. However this was thrown out because of corruption, since the land was free there was no "benefit" to the BMA.

There have been many Master Plans for Bangkok yet nothing seems to get progressed to fruition due to changes in Government, for this reason the latest Master Plan published in 2001 had a completion date of 2018, with the works being carried out in 3 stages.

The industrial estates in Ayuthaya were built on the flood plain and the designers and Government knew about the flood risk, but flood mitigation work was not implemented properly.

As far as I can see, had Thaksin been left in power in 2006, the major works could have been carried on and completed without these disasterous floods. The problem with Thailand prior to Thaksin, and after Thaksin due to the coup, there is no continuity of power and projects get suspended or held up.

That final para will have them spitting feathers...............

Probably true as well.

There is some truth in the statement but not for the reason you think. Ever since the coup, both the Land department and the Forest Department took it as an article of faith that he would be back someday. This had more to do with their belief in his ability to buy loyalties and thugs than whetether or not it might be justified. Most business came to a halt in those two departments for nearly 5 years. Thaksin had too much to lose they thought by not coming back.. There were literally hundreds of thousands, though some said millions of rai he and his cronies had in play down near Rayong and on the coast onshore near Ko Chang. Lots of anecdital accounts of forestry theft by frinds of Thaksin here in Chiang Mai and Pai as well. Everything becamr more or less frozen, with officials unsure how to proceed until they saw who their patron would be.

Well these revelations, if true, are surely dynamite! Two government departments doing nothing for nearly 5 years and nobody in authority noticed? How much of that statement and the rest of the allegations of your post can you substantiate? Or is it perhaps all "anecdital"?

[skippybangkok]

I guess the salient question to ask these manufacturers is this. Is it worth staying nearby the river and risking getting flooded out every 10 years or so in exchange for your chance to dump whatever toxins you produce in said river, all year every year. Tough call.

had Taiwanese cloth producer down rayong way as a client (consulting) many years back - simply through their waste colour pigment with heavy metals in the local drain........