'Obsolete' Weather Radar Blamed As Full Dams Worsen Thai Floods

[webfact]

'Obsolete' Weather Radar Blamed as Full Dams Worsen Thai Floods

By Daniel Ten Kate and Supunnabul Suwannakij

Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Thailand’s weather service blamed obsolete equipment for failing to predict the severity of rains that killed 307 people, saying authorities ignored upgrade requests that could have mitigated the impact of flooding.

Requests from Thailand’s Meteorological Department for a 4 billion baht ($130 million) overhaul of its radar and modeling systems have gone unheeded since 2009, deputy director-general Somchai Baimoung said. The new equipment would allow the department to more accurately forecast seasonal rains, he said, giving dam operators information needed to adjust water levels.

“If we can get this new system, it can help people,” Somchai said in a phone interview yesterday. “No one expected rainfall would be this much. Right now our system, including hardware and software, is obsolete.”

The difficulty in managing monsoon rains may shave 1.5 percentage points off growth in Southeast Asia’s second-biggest economy as floods force companies including Toyota Motor Corp. and Sony Corp. to close factories. The deluge has also damaged 13 percent of the rice fields in the world’s biggest exporter of the grain, according to the farm ministry.

Bhumibol dam, Thailand’s largest, retained most of its water prior to August to ensure sufficient supply for irrigating crops in the dry season, according to Boonin Chuenchavalit, who oversees its operation for state-run Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand. The amount of precipitation since then caught officials off guard, he said.

“We were aware rainfall would increase this year, but didn’t anticipate it would be a massive amount,” Boonin said by phone. “We have released some water by considering weather and flooding conditions since late July. Releasing so much water would worsen the flood situation.”

October Discharge

In June and July, authorities released an average of 4.5 million cubic meters of water per day from Bhumibol Dam as the water level increased to 63 percent of capacity, double the amount stored in the same period a year earlier, according to data from the Royal Irrigation Department.

The discharge increased to 22 million cubic meters per day on average in August and 26 million in September. From Oct. 1 to Oct. 14, as floods left hundreds of thousands scrambling for temporary shelter, an average of 77 million cubic meters has been released downstream each day, more than 17 times as much as in June and July, the data show.

In Sirikit Dam, the country’s second-largest that feeds the flooded area, discharge rates averaged 54 million cubic meters per day from Aug. 1 to Oct. 14, five times more than in June and July, according to Irrigation Department data. On Aug. 1, the reservoir was 79 percent full, holding twice as much water as the same date a year earlier.

Dry Season Storage

“If water was released from the dams in a proper way, the flooding would be less severe,” said Suphat Vongvisessomjai, a water expert who has designed flood defenses across Thailand. “They just kept on collecting water so they have as much as possible to use in the dry season. This is the main problem.”

Suthep Noipairoj, head of the Irrigation Department’s Office of Hydrology and Water Management, said discharges from the dams were reduced starting in April because some agriculture lands downstream were already flooded.

“The dams are full because the rainfall in the northern part of the country reached a new record high this year,” he said by phone. “It’s not true that we reduced the water released because we were concerned about water shortages. The people who said this just want to find a scapegoat.”

Heavy Storms

Rainfall in July and August was about 25 percent more than the 30-year average, according to the latest available data from the Meteorological Department. Reservoirs at larger dams across the country are 93 percent full on average, compared with 68 percent a year ago, the Irrigation Department said on its website on Oct. 14.

Five tropical storms deluged Thailand in the past few months, including Nock-Ten, which also struck the Philippines, Vietnam, Laos and China, killing more than 100 people. The water from the northern dams takes nine days to reach Bangkok, Egat Assistant Governor Kitti Tancharoen said Oct. 14.

“If they knew for sure the rain is coming, maybe they would’ve released a little bit more water,” said Chaiwat Prechawit, a former deputy director of the Irrigation Department. “The Meteorological Department can say there will be more rain than last year, but they couldn’t predict the storms would hit Thailand directly with such heavy rain.”

River Basin

The floods are centered in the Chao Phraya River Basin, an area the size of Florida where water flows from Chiang Mai in the north down to Bangkok and into the Gulf of Thailand. Average elevation in the area is less than two meters (6.6 feet) above sea level, according to the World Bank.

Since the 1950s, more than 300 dams have been built to hold water from Thailand’s monsoon rains from July to October for use the rest of the year. Bhumibol and Sirikit, funded by the World Bank after World War II to provide Bangkok with electricity and turn Thailand into a commercial rice exporter, can irrigate 400,000 million hectares (1,544 square miles) in the dry season, an area six times bigger than Singapore.

In Ayutthaya, the former capital of Thailand 76 kilometers (47 miles) north of Bangkok that is now a United Nations World Heritage Site, the annual floods helped the city repel Burmese invasions. In the 1980s, industrial parks opened in the province, attracting Japanese manufacturers such as Nikon Corp. and Pioneer Corp., which are now among the 930 factories damaged in the disaster, according to the Industry Ministry.

Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra assured Bangkok residents yesterday that the capital would be spared from flooding even as a high tide elevates water levels. The Cabinet will review the budget to help recover from the floods and manage them in the future, she said Oct. 11.

“Preventative measures are always the most effective,” said Suvit Yodmani, a former Cabinet member and ex-director of the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center. “As a whole, we could’ve done more.”

Source: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-16/-obsolete-weather-radar-blamed-as-full-dams-worsen-thai-floods.html

-- businessweek.com 2011-10-17

[KKvampire]

And the hand wringing goes on

Edited October 17, 2011 by KKvampire

[RogueExpat]

Typical "baffle 'em with bullshit" attempt for extra buget funds.

How pray tell is a radar system going to provide a weather forcast???

A radar sysytem tells you what is actually happening - now, and may indicate what might happen in the next 1 - 24 hours, not next week.

Fail to see how the lack of radar facilities can be blamed for not accuartely predicting the floods in time to actually do something about it.

[IsaanUSA]

Unbelievable. Seriously, wow.

[OzMick]

I wonder if they've thought about satellite imagery. Or if they do, and somebody is looking for a plausible (??) excuse.

Somchai says he has been asking for better equipment since 2009, which would be appreciated by his current masters.

[OzMick]

Yingluk has announced that the US is sending 28 Hawkeye aircraft. Perhaps they intend them to bolster the obsolete Thai weather radar.

[chooka]

Blame anyone or anything but themselves. They could have turned into the BBC, CNN or the Australian network. They give comprehensive world weather forcasts all the time.

[Thaddeus]

I wonder if they've thought about satellite imagery. Or if they do, and somebody is looking for a plausible (??) excuse.

Somchai says he has been asking for better equipment since 2009, which would be appreciated by his current masters.

Why don't they just buy Somchai a new computer with internet access so he can have a good browse of all the bloody weather predicting services that are already out there and have been for donkeys.

Oh, no, not Thai way, Thai not do self, not believe.

Idiots.

//edit/me think same chooka/ not type quick

Edited October 17, 2011 by Thaddeus

[DocN]

Does the term RAINY SEASON ring a bell???

[OzMick]

I wonder if they've thought about satellite imagery. Or if they do, and somebody is looking for a plausible (??) excuse.

Somchai says he has been asking for better equipment since 2009, which would be appreciated by his current masters.

Why don't they just buy Somchai a new computer with internet access so he can have a good browse of all the bloody weather predicting services that are already out there and have been for donkeys.

Oh, no, not Thai way, Thai not do self, not believe.

Idiots.

//edit/me think same chooka/ not type quick

They'd have to block the internet gambling sites of course.

[ginjag]

These so called elected/appointed experts, are only for monetary gain, (most) how can you expect them to know much about the department they are running ???? The same as the P.M.........the sooner they have a clear out of the rubbish in charge of some of these posts the better Thailand will be. Nearly everything we see and hear is a complete cock - up and a JOKE. Come on Thailand wake up.

[Soupdragon]

Someone buys these clowns a new weather rock please.

[whybother]

Yep. A new radar would have been able to track the wall of water flowing down the rivers. They'll put them on those submarines.

[softgeorge]

Don't they have any friends at the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO)? Why not a phone call or a text message or email.

Q. Mate my little weather thingy is the blink can you tell me what's happening outside......

A. Yea sure, It's the Monsoon season so expect a little bit of rain. Might be an idea to clean out all the dumped rubbish and dead dogs in the canals and drains.

All simply watch the international weather forecasts on the Television instead of soaps.

[alexakap]

Why don't they just buy Somchai a new computer with internet access so he can have a good browse of all the bloody weather predicting services that are already out there and have been for donkeys.

Oh, no, not Thai way, Thai not do self, not believe.

Idiots.

C'mon. The serious shit has happen - and now those in charge just seeking for the arse to be "fully-fully wrong mista!!".

They HAVE TO blame something - just not to be blamed themselves. Why not blame the radar - that will not blame anyone back, thus it is wrong and the reason of faulting of anyone under it.

How typical Thai...don't take it seriously. It is not the radar itself - but just faces.

It is common here.

It is normal here.

Very normal, predictable, and not to be changed in the foreseen future (no need radars - just ask me, 5555).

TIT.

Edited October 17, 2011 by alexakap

[Nisa]

Typical "baffle 'em with bullshit" attempt for extra buget funds.

How pray tell is a radar system going to provide a weather forcast???

A radar sysytem tells you what is actually happening - now, and may indicate what might happen in the next 1 - 24 hours, not next week.

Fail to see how the lack of radar facilities can be blamed for not accuartely predicting the floods in time to actually do something about it.

When was the last time you watched a weather forecast in a modern country or visited weather.com? 5 to 10 day forecasts are pretty standard now.

[toybits]

Tis best to pass the blame to the weathermen than to those DAM administrators. No pun intended. This what happens when people who control the dam gates are too afraid to act preemptively to avert disasters such as this. Blamig the weather bureau is the least painful option and may even land them a hefty windfall (ha ha) such as more modern radar equipment. If I may be so bold to say - you don't need those equipment to know when to let some water out of the dam. But then common sense is not common.

[harryn]

As has been said above radar does not predict weather but computers are used to predict it based on past and present information loaded into the software. However I thought all important decisions made in terms of the future was made by the astrologers here in Thailand. Perhaps they did foresee it and left the country until the dry season starts!

[Nisa]

Tis best to pass the blame to the weathermen than to those DAM administrators. No pun intended. This what happens when people who control the dam gates are too afraid to act preemptively to avert disasters such as this. Blamig the weather bureau is the least painful option and may even land them a hefty windfall (ha ha) such as more modern radar equipment. If I may be so bold to say - you don't need those equipment to know when to let some water out of the dam. But then common sense is not common.

So, you advocate letting water out as needed based on the current level of the dam_n? Well, then you should be happy to know that is what they did. Without proper radar and forecasting you are simply left with reacting and not strategically planning. The dam_n situation is just one of many issues that could have been handled better but the bottom line is this was a very bad monsoon season and that is what caused the flooding ... which would be much worse if the infrastructure was not in place. Thailand is just one of a number of countries having severe flooding problems from this season's monsoon.

[Nisa]

As has been said above radar does not predict weather but computers are used to predict it based on past and present information loaded into the software.

And that information loaded into computers is gathered from radar.

[ResX]

When we develop flood defensive strategy for our major hydroelectric reservoirs in our country we don't rely on radar weather forecast as our main lead. We define the biggest flood that we want to deal with and we "lock" this requirement as our least target to achieve. We use statistical method for rainfall & runoff prediction. Very classical method but it works. This enables us to have ample of time (>9months) to execute the planned draw down for our reservoirs. We use radar weather forecast to predict extreme flood events that might be bigger than what we have anticipated earlier. This in very short term measure. That is why we can't rely on it. If we know a very big flood will strike only a month from now there is nothing much we can do. A "realistic" big flood could be bigger than 6 months of the normal water consumptions for our reservoirs.

Anyway this reason alone does not explain why there was almost zero drawn down volume for Bhumibol reservoir by 1st of Oct 2011. Even if the radar was malfunction the authority that regulates major reservoirs and dams shall know that minimum reservations for ordinary floods have to be kept at all times for all its major reservoirs and dams. Having almost zero draw down when the reservoir was approaching the known flood season is quite unthinkable. Hopefully the authority learns something out of this incident and to come out wiser.

I'm not finding fault. I'm trying to provide the way forward for you to deal with this catastrophic event more efficiency in future. Please don't take my post personal.

[Payboy]

How pray tell is a radar system going to provide a weather forcast???

Surely, it can predict a windfall for some.

[siampolee]

Cheap basic weather forecasting technology, science ministers for the use of.

Edited October 17, 2011 by siampolee

[Sydebolle]

THB 4 billion for an upgrade; not essentially lose change to start with. Yet it gives the Pheu Thai crowd yet another reason to stink finger the Democrats as, after all, they stood on the investment break and did NOT approve of Somchai's little idea on how to upgrade a little while lining pockets more than .... say "just a little"

[Guest]

You don't need radar to predict that Ayuddhya and Nakhon Sawan flood every year. Because it normally only affects the poor is the main reason nothing constructive has been done over the last 40-50 years. If it flooded the homes of the rich and powerful every year, there would have been effective prevention measures in place by now.

[laocowboy2]

Frankly just another smokescreen.

The main reason for so much flooding is building on flood-plains - hopefully the name provides a clue. Hence the role of floods beating back the Burmese in the past etc. I lack the access to the necessary data, old maps etc but I would suspect that many of the places being flooded today were regularly flooded a century ago as part of the natural way in which a river basin system works. As times move on however it seems such a waste not to build on that lovely, flat river-side real estate so river banks are straightened, dykes are built, dams created - and housing estates and industrial estates rise on what were rice fields or water meadows (clue in the name there again).

If flooding is prevented up-country, then the water comes down river at increased speeds and in increased volumes. In theory if you have enough run off channels, high enough dykes etc, you can manage the water rush. However sooner or later, something goes wrong. And the water defences that are being built simply mean that to keep Mr A dry to the left of a dyke, Mr B (in Minburi for example) who would otherwise be OK will now get flooded. So even checking past flood patterns whenn choosing where to buy or build a house no longer works.

For those from the UK, building on flood-plains is what has been causing a lot of the flooding there in recent years.

[arrowsdawdle]

Typical "baffle 'em with bullshit" attempt for extra buget funds.

How pray tell is a radar system going to provide a weather forcast???

A radar sysytem tells you what is actually happening - now, and may indicate what might happen in the next 1 - 24 hours, not next week.

Fail to see how the lack of radar facilities can be blamed for not accuartely predicting the floods in time to actually do something about it.

People that are prone to procrastinate and cannot tell you the definition of plan would see no need for forecasting equipment. Anyway, if they want to know the future, that's what fortune tellers are for.

[OzMick]

As has been said above radar does not predict weather but computers are used to predict it based on past and present information loaded into the software.

And that information loaded into computers is gathered from radar.

Which tell you what is happening now, and gives you 20/20 hindsight on what you SHOULD have done 2 (or more) months ago.

[Nisa]

As has been said above radar does not predict weather but computers are used to predict it based on past and present information loaded into the software.

And that information loaded into computers is gathered from radar.

Which tell you what is happening now, and gives you 20/20 hindsight on what you SHOULD have done 2 (or more) months ago.

????

[inquisitive]

As has been said above radar does not predict weather but computers are used to predict it based on past and present information loaded into the software.

And that information loaded into computers is gathered from radar.

That leaves us wondering why our intrepid leaders did not look for the best way to work with what they had back in 2009 when they first noticed that some other people had newer and shinier radar equipment than they did. Like for instance finding other sources of that information, or even just recognizing that they may have to monitor their decisions more closely. And what has radar got to do with telling how much water is already in the dam? If they already knew that they had to be extra careful because they were making life and death decisions with limited data, then why did they go the other way and ignore what was right in front of them? They made a bad decision not once but every single day that they failed to correct their original bad decision. Was there not a single voice that said "hey, if things continue to go pear shaped, then a lot of people are going to die?" or did they have to wait for the coroners' reports to notice that this was not a typical season? The truth is that even if their only weather instrument was a wet hankie, they still failed the people. Their first obligation is to the safety of the citizens. Or did they miss that lesson in their "how to get a ripe political appointment" class?

So let's give the boys the fact that with better equipment it would be easier to do a better job, but the fact remains that even with NO equipment they still should have done a better job. There simply is no excuse, and the "my radar was out of date" story is not even a good explanation. This wasn't a matter of opening the gates an hour late, a day late, or even a week late. Good radar will never be a substitute for good people. The people that are trying to hoodwink the people into giving them a ton of money have demonstrated by their willingness to do such a tremendously wrong job that even the most modern equipment would have been ignored just like they ignored the rising water. Much more than the radar must be replaced before the people can feel safe from a repeat of this disaster.