Bangkok In For 1-Metre Flooding, Says Expert

[EvolvingApe]

Am I the only one who think this dutch expert sounds poorly informed about the actual situation? Apparently, he doesn't think the river will overflow much, nor that there are areas near the river much more prone for flooding - upto 2 meter according to another expert, who does sound a bit more knowledgeable about Bangkoks specialties.

I think it's you who are misunderstanding the situation. He said extensive areas could be under one meter of water, which allows for other areas to be under 2 meters or more of water.

[noitom]

It's a shame that the government continues to focus on their skills at predicting the outcome for Bangkok and adding to this insane daily drama as if the rest of the people don't count. It's a shame that the large Thai companies don't open facilities for helping people. Disease fighting centers, medical and food supply facilities, evacuation resources - trucks, warehouses..etc.. Here they are - check out what they have done so far on their web sites. Little if anything - What about the big Thai companies? What are they doing? Any of them setting up relief centers or medical emergency facilities? Where are they - Red Bull, Charoen Phopkhand, Singha, Thai Air, Preuksa, Seafresh, Bangkok Bank, SCB, Ayudha, PTT, True, AIS, Siam Cement, Central Group, Raimon Land...etc.. ? It's time they were called out - Their lack of support and resources is a national disgrace.[/size][/color]<br style="color: rgb(28, 40, 55); font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; background-color: rgb(250, 251, 252); "><br style="color: rgb(28, 40, 55); font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; background-color: rgb(250, 251, 252); ">Sorry to say, but they will soon have to deal with the aftermath - disease, massive health and medical issues, contamination, monumental health disaster - Cholera, Typhoid, leptospirosis., Dengue., who knows what, etc? I feel bad for the Thai people who relied on higher levels in their commercial and government sector to back them up in times of emergency are now stuck because of selfish, self centered, self absorbed, elite, privileged arrogance.

[uptheos]

"Thailand is like a "dysfunctional family".

Perfectly put.

[noitom]

airport is, and probably will be, working, so "don't travel to bangkok" is over the top. Because it's the largest international airport in thailand and in the region, travellers use it as a hub to connect to the other airports. With closing of don muang, those connections ill be even more convenient.

roads around airport are not flooded (most of them are elevated) and with the motorway network you can go to any part of the country

Do you mean the same airport that was seized and controlled by a civilian demonstration? Was that airport closing for almost two weeks and example of Thailand's ability to provide security in the region? "over the top" - My lord man, why would anyone want to go there if they don't have to?

[uol123]

Watch the video clip below to understand why flooding in Bkk is inevitable.

3:07 suggest even flooding bkk at 1m, problem will still not be solved. Seem like both local & dutch expert already know the outcome

[siampolee]

"A Cabinet member blocked the irrigation's plan to release the water from the dam in September. "I shall assume the sole responsibility," he said. /via@ThanongK""

Thailand is like a "dysfunctional family".

There may be an interesting link twixt the two comments if the truth was to be known. Strange that to date no compromising initials have been bandied about isn't it.?

Edited October 27, 2011 by siampolee

[impulse]

Headline: Bangkok in for 1-metre flooding, says expert

Article: Adri Verwey, said yesterday the worst case scenario for Bangkok was that "extensive areas" of the capital could be submerged under more than one metre of water, if dykes are breached in many areas.

That's a lot of hedging. Maybe that's why he's considered an expert?

Edited October 27, 2011 by impulse

[jackr]

All this waffle of Dutch experts... Only reason they have the know-how is through necessity; ie, there wouldn't be much of a Holland if they didn't throw up shed loads of earth. The sea is largely a constant. Thailand is a different ballgame; being tropical and having masses of water starting inland. There's not a one human who could make a difference at this juncture no matter what their CV says; the damage has been done through not controlling volumes earlier. Only option is to let it flow.

[ChiangMaiThai]

I'm on mid Sukhumvit. After the barrage of panicked tweets from this forum, RichardBarrows, and the breaking news email alerts, and the sudden public holiday, I expected to wake up today to a scene from a disaster movie. But for as far as I can see from the 20th floor, it is utterly and completely dry.

Maybe I am speaking too soon, but it does seem that there is a bit of scaremongering going on.

[flemmie]

I am just wondering why they are flying in experts from overseas. From the looks of it, there are plenty here on TV... Pfffftttt

[bumpkin]

Let us hope you are right!

But the Dutch have controlled water,especially sea water for hundreds of years,

there is even a County in England (EAST ANGLIA) which was/is 6 feet below sea level,

which is now first class farmland,Towns and Villages,all reclaimed land by the Dutch Engineers,around 200 years ago.

The Dutch started this work,, in the mid 16th Century, but that early attempt was not too successful and the work was delayed by Political Warfare (English Civil war) . Thai politicians take note !

[khaan]

I have heard many times Bangkok used to be referred to as Venice of the East and presumably a lot more traffic relied on the waterways

for transport. How practical would it be to revert to this kind of scenario which would not only make use of a valuable resource

but could also have a multitude of other benefits in terms of reducing traffic congestion? Is it feasible?

[Emptyset]

"A Cabinet member blocked the irrigation's plan to release the water from the dam in September. "I shall assume the sole responsibility," he said. /via@ThanongK"

http://www.thaivisa....ost__p__4797084

If this is true, could it have been someone from CT? Obviously Suphan must be protected at all costs, even if it means massive damage to the rest of the nation. Obviously we don't know which dam he's referring to though.

[KKvampire]

, so "don't travel to bangkok" is over the top.

roads around airport are not flooded (most of them are elevated) and with the motorway network you can go to any part of the country

Um wrong on both counts, where the hell are you, London?

http://www.fco.gov.uk/en/travel-and-living-abroad/travel-advice-by-country/asia-oceania/thailand

Edited October 27, 2011 by KKvampire

[Tatsujin]

Let us hope you are right!

But the Dutch have controlled water,especially sea water for hundreds of years,

there is even a County in England (EAST ANGLIA) which was/is 6 feet below sea level,

which is now first class farmland,Towns and Villages,all reclaimed land by the Dutch Engineers,around 200 years ago.

Yup, that's where I'm from!

[Ulysses G.]

Dutch, Thai, Eastern, Western makes no difference, it is mother nature will decide herself. The only thing I know is no one knows as I prepare for the worse and hope for the best.

THIS is good advice!

[whatsupdoc]

"A Cabinet member blocked the irrigation's plan to release the water from the dam in September. "I shall assume the sole responsibility," he said. /via@ThanongK"

http://www.thaivisa....ost__p__4797084

If this is true, could it have been someone from CT? Obviously Suphan must be protected at all costs, even if it means massive damage to the rest of the nation. Obviously we don't know which dam he's referring to though.

For what it is worth; but I heard a Thai specifically mention the Science and Technology minister as the one responsible.

Makes me wonder who actually should be in charge of releasing water from the dams....... I hope it will eventually be clear which decisions were made, by whom and when. It could clearly demonstrate whether the flooding is a natural or man-made disaster.

[waterdog]

Key words in the article - "the worst case scenario" - "could be" - "if dykes

are breached in many areas".<br><br>And the odds of dikes being breached in many areas is what ???  <br><br>Overall the situation with respect to keeping inner Bangkok protected from high water has been working pretty well thus far. If anything there has been, IMHO, too much hype and thus the high levels of hoarding of food and water. <br><br>The Google crisis map here: http://www.google.org/crisismap?crisis=thailand_floods_en   <br>shows the extent of the flooding. I've been monitoring it closely these past few days and there have been no significant increases in the areas inundated. <br>

[pogal]

Klongs around Ramkhamhaeng and Sukhumvit still the same. Is there ANYONE who can report a rise in water or NEW flooding in areas around BKK? Yesterday it was announced overnight flooding but as yet I have not seen on TV or heard from the internet about this? Anyone got any hands-on news?

[noitom]

For what it's worth, I know for a fact that Bangkok has been high on the discussion agenda amongst flood management experts in the Netherlands. I contacted a Dutch engineer friend (one of them) weeks ago about the long term prognosis for Thailand. This I did because I had then taken my first serious look the topographical maps of the Bangkok area, and with a view to rising see levels, one can see that many of the beaches in the bay area will have to give way to water defences. On the phone, I put the idea to him, that if Bangkok will exist at all, a massive rebuild of the dyke system, at the expense of the beaches, will have to have to start soon. Knowing exactly what I was talking about, he simply said: "Absolutely".

If Sasin Chalermlarp has been snubbed for so long, you can only imagine the presssure someone must have been under to accept the engagement of a foreign expert.

If you have not already, I suggest you connect with Sasin Chalermlarp on Facebook, and if you don't understand the Thai language, get someone who does and follow his posts. You can also follow him on youtube. But you will need to copy his name in Thai into the youtube search field once there.

_{Sasin Chalermlarp > ศศิน เฉลิมลาภ}

I don't understand bringing in or using this "Dutch" line of thought or engineering in now? The horse is gone so why have a "Royal Commission" now on closing the barn door. If anything, look at the U.S.recovery program for New Orleans.See where they did it right and screwed up and do it right. Bangkok will survive, has for a very long time and a bunch of farang sitting around armchair quarter backing will help no one. You can study the topog all you want, it helps not at all now. It's like using the Hover Dam as an example to water control that is perfect for Thailand. Thailand has aunique problem unique to Thailand both by topography and social norms. Action is what is needed now, NOT WORDS. I feel the pain the average thai feels with their world underwater. It is a difficult thing to see water coming and there is nothing you can do now. Been there done that. What carried the day was my fellow people, not just thai, NOT saying "som nahm hah" and instead, giving a helping hand.

Research like above is important later, now is now, get to the people that need help, you can't eat or drink sand bags.

This is a good point now is now - topography schemes can come later - now is now!! It's a shame that most Thais in some position of authority don't see it that way - It seems as ifas if everyone in some position of authority ie. the business class and gov officals have completely abandoned the population and left them on their own - It's a shame that the government continues to focus on their skills at predicting the outcome for Bangkok after 3-4 months and adding to this insane daily drama as if the rest of the people don't count. It's a shame that the large Thai companies don't open facilities for helping people. Disease fighting centers, medical and food supply facilities, evacuation resources - trucks, warehouses..etc.. Here they are - check out what they have done so far on their web sites. Little if anything - What about the big Thai companies? What are they doing? Any of them setting up relief centers or medical emergency facilities? Where are they - Red Bull, Charoen Phopkhand, Singha, Thai Air, Preuksa, Seafresh, Bangkok Bank, SCB, Ayudha, PTT, True, AIS, Siam Cement, Central Group, Raimon Land...etc.. ? It's time they were called out - Their lack of support and resources is a national disgrace.Sorry to say, but they will soon have to deal with the aftermath - disease, massive health and medical issues, contamination, monumental health disaster - Cholera, Typhoid, Leptospirosis., Dengue., who knows what, etc? I feel bad for the Thai people who relied on higher levels in their commercial and government sector to back them up in times of emergency are now stuck because of selfish, self centered, self absorbed, elite, privileged arrogance. Now is now - when will they face the facts to help the Thai population overcome the onslaught of contamination and disease and monumental health and medical emergency?

[scorecard]

Who let the water build up in the dams to such an extent that masses were released downstream at the height of the monsoon season? High tides are predicted well in advance and push many miles upstream so a man made confluence seemed almost inevitable, or am I imagining some mischief making?

Well high tides can be predicted well in advance but they cannot be changed.

Some research will tell you that letting the dams gain high water levels is historic and has been the standard at this time of the year for many years (but that doesn't mean it's correct).

Mischief - maybe?

Current government (although in power for just two months) through it's various ministries should have been well informed and if needed, should have taken action on dam levels some two months ago. They didn't.

They were too engrossed in: appointing incapable cronies to ministerial positions, appointing thug red shirt clowns (none of them with highly valuable knowledge, past experience, none of they capable of developing valuable insights of suggesting clever policies to move Thailand forward) to be ministerial advisers, talking about amnesty for the paymaster, changing the constitution, getting a paymasters relative (ex relative?) into the police chief job.

The sad fact is that the red supporters make up a large percentage of the unfortunate folks who are suffering deeply from the floods.

[noitom]

For what it's worth, I know for a fact that Bangkok has been high on the discussion agenda amongst flood management experts in the Netherlands. I contacted a Dutch engineer friend (one of them) weeks ago about the long term prognosis for Thailand. This I did because I had then taken my first serious look the topographical maps of the Bangkok area, and with a view to rising see levels, one can see that many of the beaches in the bay area will have to give way to water defences. On the phone, I put the idea to him, that if Bangkok will exist at all, a massive rebuild of the dyke system, at the expense of the beaches, will have to have to start soon. Knowing exactly what I was talking about, he simply said: "Absolutely".

If Sasin Chalermlarp has been snubbed for so long, you can only imagine the presssure someone must have been under to accept the engagement of a foreign expert.

If you have not already, I suggest you connect with Sasin Chalermlarp on Facebook, and if you don't understand the Thai language, get someone who does and follow his posts. You can also follow him on youtube. But you will need to copy his name in Thai into the youtube search field once there.

_{Sasin Chalermlarp > ศศิน เฉลิมลาภ}

I don't understand bringing in or using this "Dutch" line of thought or engineering in now? The horse is gone so why have a "Royal Commission" now on closing the barn door. If anything, look at the U.S.recovery program for New Orleans.See where they did it right and screwed up and do it right. Bangkok will survive, has for a very long time and a bunch of farang sitting around armchair quarter backing will help no one. You can study the topog all you want, it helps not at all now. It's like using the Hover Dam as an example to water control that is perfect for Thailand. Thailand has aunique problem unique to Thailand both by topography and social norms. Action is what is needed now, NOT WORDS. I feel the pain the average thai feels with their world underwater. It is a difficult thing to see water coming and there is nothing you can do now. Been there done that. What carried the day was my fellow people, not just thai, NOT saying "som nahm hah" and instead, giving a helping hand.

Research like above is important later, now is now, get to the people that need help, you can't eat or drink sand bags.

It's a shame that the government continues to focus on their skills at predicting the outcome for Bangkok after 3-4 months and adding to this insane daily drama as if the rest of the people don't count. It's a shame that the large Thai companies don't open facilities for helping people. Disease fighting centers, medical and food supply facilities, evacuation resources - trucks, warehouses..etc.. Here they are - check out what they have done so far on their web sites. Little if anything - What about the big Thai companies? What are they doing? Any of them setting up relief centers or medical emergency facilities? Where are they - Red Bull, Charoen Phopkhand, Singha, Thai Air, Preuksa, Seafresh, Bangkok Bank, SCB, Ayudha, PTT, True, AIS, Siam Cement, Central Group, Raimon Land...etc.. ? It's time they were called out - Their lack of support and resources is a national disgrace.

Sorry to say, but they will soon have to deal with the aftermath - disease, massive health and medical issues, contamination, monumental health disaster - Cholera, Typhoid, Leptospirosis., Dengue., who knows what, etc? I feel bad for the Thai people who relied on higher levels in their commercial and government sector to back them up in times of emergency are now stuck because of selfish, self centered, self absorbed, elite, privileged arrogance.

[SICHONSTEVE]

If she "Is Now Meeting With A Lot Of Opposition", it would seem to imply that the "some politicians are willing to let people suffer in order to get rid of the government" people are her own. Certainly it is they without a plan. So, what's the game here?

I agree!!! Surely it is the government controlling matters and pulling all the strings. After all, when Abhisit suggested calling "a state of emergency" so that the army could get involved to alleviate matters - Thaksin doesn't want it because he is worried about a coup because of the state of government weakness!!

Just how can the Democrats (everything points to them being the target of his attack) be unwilling to help as when they try to she doesn't listen. More poignantly, the Governor of Bangkok (Democrat) seems to be the only one who is decisive and providing clear and useful information on what to do, so this claim is just trying to deflect some of the blame away from Yingluck and the apalling disorganisation and the Government's abject performance!!:jap:.

Also, its not the oppositions responsibility, is it??? She has been found out and unless the Democrat MP's he refers to are obstructing things then all of the blame for the poor response to the flooding lies at her feet and her feet only and his accusations are groundless!!!.

.

Edited October 27, 2011 by SICHONSTEVE

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Who let the water build up in the dams to such an extent that masses were released downstream at the height of the monsoon season? High tides are predicted well in advance and push many miles upstream so a man made confluence seemed almost inevitable, or am I imagining some mischief making?

"A Cabinet member blocked the irrigation's plan to release the water from the dam in September. "I shall assume the sole responsibility," he said. /via@ThanongK"

http://www.thaivisa....ost__p__4797084

Anyone wanting to pursue this should go to @ThanongK Twitter page...and you'll see a series of tweets from him yesterday on this subject...

http://twitter.com/#!/ThanongK

The poster is listed on his Twitter homepage as an editor associated with the ASEAN Newsroom...

ThanongKThanong

Now Plamote Maiklad, Smith Thammasiroj share the view that the flooding disasters occur because of water mismanagement.

ThanongKThanong

Another interesting account was that a politican from Suphan Buri also played a role.

But, as best as I can recall, I haven't seen any newspaper article published or TV news report aired as yet that delves into that topic or allegation.

Edited October 27, 2011 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[siampolee]

Here is another link that with searching one can indeed start to glean some interesting facts .

http://www.ryt9.com

[qualtrough]

Let us hope you are right!

But the Dutch have controlled water,especially sea water for hundreds of years,

there is even a County in England (EAST ANGLIA) which was/is 6 feet below sea level,

which is now first class farmland,Towns and Villages,all reclaimed land by the Dutch Engineers,around 200 years ago.

They do have the expertise, but they still experienced catastrophic flooding in 1954(?) that makes this look like nothing. I blame them for this current situation. If they had been better salesmen they would have sold Thailand their services and we would have a good system in place now.

[webfact]

Whole of Bangkok 'could flood today'

Nirmal Ghosh

The Straits Times

The whole of Bangkok, including key tourist spots, could be flooded by today, as water continued to rise inexorably in several districts, fuelling panic buying across the capital.

Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra said yesterday there was a '50-50' chance that flood waters will penetrate Bangkok's central and inner zones, as barriers might not be able to hold back water pouring in from the north.

But she maintained that "I am 50 per cent confident that the inner zone of Bangkok will not be completely flooded".

Bangkok Governor M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra was less sanguine, and warned that the whole of the city was liable to be flooded by today, as billions of cubic metres of backed-up water could push farther into the capital overnight.

The warnings came as districts in the north and several neighbourhoods on the swollen Chao Phraya River were increasingly swamped by flood waters.

While the inner city remained dry yesterday, parts - or all - of it could be similarly swamped, as rising tides and heavy rain are making it harder to drive water out to the sea.

Already, flood waters from the overflowing Chao Phraya River have appeared around the Grand Palace and encroached onto the open Sanam Luang grounds, an area the size of two football fields adjacent to the Grand Palace, the National Museum and Thammasat University.

Ms Yingluck has warned that parts of Bangkok could be flooded for up to a month, as the water could take two to four weeks to drain completely.

But she added: "The situation should not be as serious as in other provinces. We should not face water as high as 2m or 3m staying for two or three months, as we have seen in other provinces."

Separately, Dr Chaiyuth Sukhsri of Chulalongkorn University's Department of Water Resources Engineering said that not all the water in the north was going to pour through Bangkok. "Only some of it will," he said. "It is not like all of this huge amount of water is coming down."

Former Bangkok governor Bhichit Rattakul, now executive director of the Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre, also cautioned against doomsday scenarios, saying: "We can fight on (to defend Bangkok) without saying every district in the city will be flooded."

Panic buyers strip Bangkok shelves

The assurances failed to slow down the panic buying of food and water supplies, which has emptied shelves, driven up prices and forced some shops to impose rationing.

Vegetables in wet markets are now in short supply, as local supply chains have been disrupted by the flooding of roads and highways across much of the country. Some shortages resulted from mass buying of items to supply displaced and stranded communities.

Prices have shot up 10 per cent to 20 per cent for some items, despite government warnings against profiteering.

The authorities have relaxed import limits on food and beverages, sanitary items and water filters, in the hope that quick imports will replenish stocks.

"People have stocked up excessive supplies not only of eggs, but of everything," the president of an association of egg farmers, Mr Manoj Chootabtim, told the Bangkok Post.

"The government should calm the public down and assure them that there are enough essentials and food."

An adviser to the Thai Retailers Association said 40 per cent of goods have disappeared from markets.

Yesterday, no local drinking water could be found, aside from that sold in restaurants, cafes and a few stores in parts of Bangkok located far from the flood-stricken districts. The only water on sale was imported Evian which, at 66 baht (US$2.15) a litre, costs about three times as much as locally produced water.

About 30 out of 83 producers of drinking water in Thailand have been hit by floods, either directly or indirectly.

Store owner Sirikorn Bamrungchit, 30, said her supplies were running low.

"We still have some fresh water left, but not much," she said. "Instant noodles are 20 baht more expensive than before per box. We don't have any Coke because the company got flooded and deliveries stopped."

With flood waters threatening to stay in the capital for a month or so, experts have warned of an increasing risk of food and drinking water shortages due to the disruption of production and distribution. This could, in turn, raise the risk of water-related diseases such as dysentery and dengue.

Yesterday, bus stations and highways were also jammed as thousands of Bangkok residents rushed to flee the capital. Many more are still trying to leave their swamped neighbourhoods.

In some districts like Bang Phlad, which was flooded overnight by the overflowing Chao Phraya, some areas were already submerged up to 1m yesterday morning.

Muddy water eddied in and out of houses - mixed with garbage and sewage - as police and army personnel and civilian volunteers ferried residents out of the area in big trucks and boats.

Deep inside the narrow lanes of the poor neighbourhood of Charan Sanit Wong soi 85, a few hundred metres from the river, many locals took refuge in the local temple, which is on slightly higher ground.

-- ANN 2011-10-27

[pedro01]

It's getting a bit dull hearing all these predictions of imminent floods.

Is there no-one that has a clue when it's going to start hitting BKK harder if at all?

[Crushdepth]

A rehash of yesterdays news. Someone should kick these guys out of the office and send them down to the river to do some reporting.

Edit: Ok he's in Singapore...off the hook then!

Edited October 27, 2011 by Crushdepth

[quiksilva]

Who let the water build up in the dams to such an extent that masses were released downstream at the height of the monsoon season? High tides are predicted well in advance and push many miles upstream so a man made confluence seemed almost inevitable, or am I imagining some mischief making?

"A Cabinet member blocked the irrigation's plan to release the water from the dam in September. "I shall assume the sole responsibility," he said. /via@ThanongK"

http://www.thaivisa....ost__p__4797084

Anyone wanting to pursue this should go to @ThanongK Twitter page...and you'll see a series of tweets from him yesterday on this subject...

http://twitter.com/#!/ThanongK

The poster is listed on his Twitter homepage as an editor associated with the ASEAN Newsroom...

ThanongKThanong

Now Plamote Maiklad, Smith Thammasiroj share the view that the flooding disasters occur because of water mismanagement.

ThanongKThanong

Another interesting account was that a politican from Suphan Buri also played a role.

But, as best as I can recall, I haven't seen any newspaper article published or TV news report aired as yet that delves into that topic or allegation.

He is also an Editor at the Nation, and yes you are quite right that paper has not dealt with it yet... self censorship.