Are either of these taking place anywhere?

Yea, staring from Nakhon Sawan throughout Ayutthaya and now Charan 13 ... soon will reach Rama II road. All people will drop sandbags, switch off pumps and start celebrating ...

The announced Lot Krathing festivities in Bangkok are cancelled

but I heard from firends up in northern they are on as planned

Yes, all around the flooded areas of Bangkok.

In fact, the joke goes like this:

Last year I had to go to the Chaopaya to launch my Loy Kathong.

This year the Chaopaya came to my house to pick it up personally.

(That's the "agreed upon" translation of what my wife's daughter told me.)

Lets put it this way, 95 per of people wont need to go to the river to celebrate Loy Krathong Festival but it would not suprise me if you see some sort of small celebrations.

The Thai phrase su su (fight fight) comes to mind

By the way I went to the festivities near the Grand Palace, no thanks to you guys.

Huge crowds.

Now maybe you can do better on thanksgiving