No More Floods In Next 5 Years: Virabongsa

[w11guy]

Preposterous comments by the new leader of the effort to combat disaster. Anyone considering investment with this leadership, risk, and disease management controls should run, run, run faster.

Generally speaking at the highest levels of government here they don't try to jerk around larger countries or multinationals. They know who pays the bills and not to bite the hand that feeds. However, if given the opportunity they do try it on with smaller investors all the time.

Unfortunately for Thailand multinational insurance companies are the big boys in the world. There's no way to play games with these guys they will eat Thailand's lunch.

Yes, you are probably right . I'd be very surprised if the big insurance companies are going to rush to insure anything anymore in this climate of corruption, subsequent corner cutting ( sorry cost cutting ) and lack of planning before implementation ( large or small scale). Sadly, if they do it will be at massive costs, to be counted in with the 30% tea money packages , which all in all at the end of the day may contribute to a great economic downturn in Thailand's status among ASEAN countries.

After a disaster is usually the time that insurance companies make the most money. People will want to insure against floods and insurers will increase their premiums. People will still pay because they are frightened. It would be very unlikely to have another flood as bad as this in the next few years, so insurers will make a great profit. So insurers will indeed rush to insure against floods in Thailand.

If flood planning was perfect then no-one would want insurance. There's nothing like a disaster to get people to willingly part with their money.

I also doubt very much that there will be an economic downturn in Thailand (apart from GDP dropping this year) because all the rebuilding will actually help the economy.

[w11guy]

No More Floods In Next 5 Years: Virabongsa

Within a year from now, the confidence will be restored and in five years, there would be no more disaster," he told reporters after the appointment.

You could read this as being "There will be no floods from 2012 - 2016" or "There will be no floods after 2016". I take it as being the latter.

Having said that ... as if !!!! He might be able to stop the floods from having such an affect, but there will be no way he can stop them altogether.

He didn't say there wouldn't be floods; he said there wouldn't be a disaster. If floods are properly managed then they don't need to turn into a disaster. I think all he is saying is that he will ensure there is proper flood management. I don't think he's predicting anything like the weather.

You lot need some lessons in English comprehension.

It's not a problem with comprehension. It's an issue of the definition. A lot of people would define a flood as a disaster, but I suppose it would depend on how bad the flood was.

I think it would be pretty difficult to control a flood in Thailand so well that it wouldn't be a disaster for some people.

I agree that a flood is a disaster for the person affected, but I think it is clear that he is talking about a major disaster such as the one we have now.

[ratcatcher]

CONFIDENCE RESTORATION

"No more floods in next 5 years": Virabongsa

The Nation

Simply making a statement as rash as this is naivete of the first order.

Can you imagine Japan's P.M. saying "No more earthquakes in next 5 years" or President Obama saying "No more hurricanes in next 5 years"?

I realize that Yingluck was not speaking but.......................

Perhaps saying" Thailand will do its best to rebuild and reinvigorate the seriously damaged industries and take care of the citizens who

have lost loved ones and/or been made homeless or suffered huge losses . We cannot control the weather. No nation can do that", might

have been a little more realistic.

[whybother]

I agree that a flood is a disaster for the person affected, but I think it is clear that he is talking about a major disaster such as the one we have now.

It's probably pretty safe to predict that a 50 year event is not going to happen twice in 5 years.

I can imagine the announcements this time next year about how well their flood management was during that wet season and how well their "improvements" have worked.

[daiwill60]

Preposterous comments by the new leader of the effort to combat disaster. Anyone considering investment with this leadership, risk, and disease management controls should run, run, run faster.

Generally speaking at the highest levels of government here they don't try to jerk around larger countries or multinationals. They know who pays the bills and not to bite the hand that feeds. However, if given the opportunity they do try it on with smaller investors all the time.

Unfortunately for Thailand multinational insurance companies are the big boys in the world. There's no way to play games with these guys they will eat Thailand's lunch.

Yes, you are probably right . I'd be very surprised if the big insurance companies are going to rush to insure anything anymore in this climate of corruption, subsequent corner cutting ( sorry cost cutting ) and lack of planning before implementation ( large or small scale). Sadly, if they do it will be at massive costs, to be counted in with the 30% tea money packages , which all in all at the end of the day may contribute to a great economic downturn in Thailand's status among ASEAN countries.

After a disaster is usually the time that insurance companies make the most money. People will want to insure against floods and insurers will increase their premiums. People will still pay because they are frightened. It would be very unlikely to have another flood as bad as this in the next few years, so insurers will make a great profit. So insurers will indeed rush to insure against floods in Thailand.

If flood planning was perfect then no-one would want insurance. There's nothing like a disaster to get people to willingly part with their money.

I also doubt very much that there will be an economic downturn in Thailand (apart from GDP dropping this year) because all the rebuilding will actually help the economy.

Thank you for the lesson in insurance risk, I stand corrected somewhat, my point is that companies looking to invest will surely think twice about investing if costs rise.

Another point is there will surely be businesses losses and bankruptcy failures, and these may be counteracted by the massive implementation of restorative and future protection measures that the current Gov't is promising to invest in, which will help in replacing many jobs that may have been lost. So I suppose this rebuilding investment may only help the economy to a lesser degree, when considering the jobs lost.

[SABloke]

I don't understand why you all are so pessimistic. This man is the greatest thing to happen to Thailand in recorded history. He is clearly a god incarnate. All the government has to do now is bet the entire 2011/12 budget on the winner of next year's UEFA (As he KNOWS the future) - or maybe spread the bet to other events...Tour d' France, Ashes, Olympics Gold Medal Winners etc. and forget about worrying about investors: Thailand will be THE SUPERPOWER of the world (Evil Laughter).

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Actually, at least based on the OP article, it's the newspaper written headline that's at odds with what the guy is actually quoted is saying...

The newspaper written headline talked about "no more floods in next 5 years," wrongly suggesting, at least in English, that there won't be more floods for the 2011-2016 period.

But that's not what the guy is actually quoted as saying in the article. He's quoted as saying, if they're successful, they're won't be any more natural flood disasters "in five years" from now, meaning starting by 2016.

The newspaper headline is clearly wrong based on the text of the article. But I also wouldn't give two cents of a bet on the guy's 5 year pledge either...

Heck, it took the government almost 5 years (I know I'm exaggerating a bit) to get the BTS OnNut extension opened after the construction had been completed on the line. And that's a puny thing, compared to a nationwide remaking of Thailand's flood control system.

I would say I won't be holding my breath... But I may have to be holding my breath if the flood waters keep coming and getting deeper.

<h2 class="maintitle"></h2>

No More Floods In Next 5 Years: Virabongsa

Within a year from now, the confidence will be restored and in five years, there would be no more disaster," he told reporters after the appointment.

You could read this as being "There will be no floods from 2012 - 2016" or "There will be no floods after 2016". I take it as being the latter.

Having said that ... as if !!!! He might be able to stop the floods from having such an affect, but there will be no way he can stop them altogether.

Well if he had wrote after 5 years.

Instead he wrote in the next five years.

Not even the same animal.

For all he knows they can have another one s soon as this one is over.

When are they going to learn it is imposable to put there foot in there mouth if they keep it shut.

[hellodolly]

Interesting that apart from one member who has checked out Wiki with dubious results not one post suggests anyone has the faintest idea about Virabongsa Ramangkura and his background.This shows as I have always suspected that the collective memory here is quite short term, and very few are clued up on the big business background that's so important to understand Thailand.

A few like Steveromagnino obviously do understand all this, and he would know perfectly well about Virabongsa's background and comnnections.But for most there is no comprehension at all simply because he hasn't been in the news lately.It's simply not good enough to do a mindless google and come up with stale stuff about the long forgotten Suan Kitti affair.

Other than to slag every one with the exception of one is there a point to your rambling.

Are you trying to say he is right on the money.

So if we all check out his back ground will Thailand be flood free for 5 years?

[zorro1]

Well Thats a relief, all sorted.

[moe666]

Minister for overseeing redistribution opportunities now?

18 points of negativity...................

First response from Thai Visa denizens.

How sad you all are.

Correction to add rubl's ( what does that mean anyway) erudite contribution.

21 posts of neg.

One post keeping track whose sadder

[SABloke]

Interesting that apart from one member who has checked out Wiki with dubious results not one post suggests anyone has the faintest idea about Virabongsa Ramangkura and his background.This shows as I have always suspected that the collective memory here is quite short term, and very few are clued up on the big business background that's so important to understand Thailand.

A few like Steveromagnino obviously do understand all this, and he would know perfectly well about Virabongsa's background and comnnections.But for most there is no comprehension at all simply because he hasn't been in the news lately.It's simply not good enough to do a mindless google and come up with stale stuff about the long forgotten Suan Kitti affair.

Excuse me while I go to the bathroom with a blade to my wrists

[jayboy]

Other than to slag every one with the exception of one is there a point to your rambling.

Are you trying to say he is right on the money.

So if we all check out his back ground will Thailand be flood free for 5 years?

Not really.What I'm saying is that one doesn't expect too much insight into corporate Thailand, its key movers and their significance from a bunch of visa runners.

[animatic]

Prediction: Next year's flood will not be called a flood, but instead will be called a "Virabongsa".

And people will still be Wenging on about this one.

[SABloke]

Other than to slag every one with the exception of one is there a point to your rambling.

Are you trying to say he is right on the money.

So if we all check out his back ground will Thailand be flood free for 5 years?

Not really.What I'm saying is that one doesn't expect too much insight into corporate Thailand, its key movers and their significance from a bunch of visa runners.

Some issues are universal jayboy - not confined to Thailand (Your country of birth clearly, or are you also a "visa runner"). I couldn't care less if Virabongsa was the founding father of water management : The point us runners are trying to make, is that talking out of your rear is too easily and readily used in this country. "No disaster in 5 years". COME ON! What about other disasters...earthquake, fires, jayboy becoming PM etc.

[KeyserSoze01]

Actually, at least based on the OP article, it's the newspaper written headline that's at odds with what the guy is actually quoted is saying...

The newspaper written headline talked about "no more floods in next 5 years," wrongly suggesting, at least in English, that there won't be more floods for the 2011-2016 period.

But that's not what the guy is actually quoted as saying in the article. He's quoted as saying, if they're successful, they're won't be any more natural flood disasters "in five years" from now, meaning starting by 2016.

The newspaper headline is clearly wrong based on the text of the article. But I also wouldn't give two cents of a bet on the guy's 5 year pledge either...

Most likely a case of the speakers intent being misinterpreted and lost in translation due to the nuances of English, coupled with the sensational headline presented by the media to hook the audience into reading the article. Nothing to see here, move along.

[Tokay]

I wonder which fortune teller gave him this information.

[SABloke]

I wonder which fortune teller gave him this information.

FYI Dubai has some of the best fortune tellers in the world.

[lungmi]

I don't see how he can achieve the objective if he doesn't have mean to store at least 17billion cubic meter of flood waters that may fall in 7 days. Nobody can' manage the flood waters of this intensity if there is no mean to do so! I doubt he can see the big picture the way I see it. Yes, I'm about 2,000km away from flood sites. Maybe because I'm not a part of the problem I can see the problem quite transparently. Or he just takes chances since he knows only 10% chances that the biggest flood in 50 years will strike any year over the next 5 years?

Annual average rainfall for Chao Phraya cathment is about 70 billion cubic meter, measured at its river mouth. The "deadly" characteristic of flood for any catchment is "Given 50 years period there is close to 100% probability that the catchment will be impounded by intense rainfall amounting to 25% of the catchment's annual rainfall in a period of 7 days". In your case we are talking about 17billion cubic meter of rainfall that falls in 7 days (or less). I think this revelation won't surprise most of you anymore by now since that the total flood water that started all this mess is just below 16billion cubic meter. I would says, yes, it is likely typical flood that has return frequency once in 50 years as claimed. At least close to.

At the moment two major dams that you can partly rely on to stop a 17billion cubic meter "monster", namely Bhumibol & Sirkit. At best these two dams can absorb 4 and 3 billion cubic meter of flood waters respectively. Any other dams besides these two? We are looking for 10billion cubic meter of flood storage dams to ensure 98% chances Bangkok can be kept dry over the next 50 years.

I live near the Bhumiphon Dam, I remember that the Dam was full up to 96% before the flooding of Chiang Mai and Lampang. One engineer of the Dam (friend of my Thai family) told me that all qualified stuff of the Dam asked to open the Dam before the new water would attain the connection with the Wang river (Lampang). Governement refused. The Bumiphon Dam was opened when 100% full. Together with the Wang River the water overflooded Ban Tak, Tak, Khampaeng Phet, etc. and now BKK. Big flood is one thing, low responsability another.

[dru2]

Other than to slag every one with the exception of one is there a point to your rambling.

Are you trying to say he is right on the money.

So if we all check out his back ground will Thailand be flood free for 5 years?

Not really.What I'm saying is that one doesn't expect too much insight into corporate Thailand, its key movers and their significance from a bunch of visa runners.

Some issues are universal jayboy - not confined to Thailand (Your country of birth clearly, or are you also a "visa runner"). I couldn't care less if Virabongsa was the founding father of water management : The point us runners are trying to make, is that talking out of your rear is too easily and readily used in this country. "No disaster in 5 years". COME ON! What about other disasters...earthquake, fires, jayboy becoming PM etc.

So why not publish the relevant sentence in Thai as well, to avoid any possibility of misunderstanding. Quite a few of us can read Thai...

[orchidlady]

I suggest he try playing this flood simulation game and see how he does controlling flooding for three years before spouting off what he expects. All of FROC officials should try this also-they might learn something.

I use this with my business finance students/engineering students. It involves making decisions on what methods to use to prevent or minimize flood damage and then you get feedback on what happened based on your decisions. It used to be set up so you could compare your score against "other high scorers". My students found it fairly educational and entertaining. Whenever classes resume, I think they will find it much more interesting based on the flooding here.

http://www.floodsim.com/

[Wolfram]

Strange she can think better than Apple!!! They have 5 R if they have a problem. I made 5 R here to be considered, taking into account that 5 R have been proven by the success of Apple.

Reset - To reset your Management

Retry - Retry policy from a different view point

Restart - Restart your politics and business

Reinstall - Update and reimplement your policies and ideas

Restore - Erase all and start all over again

[Squigy]

Words uttered now that could be regretted in later history, rather reminds me of this particular historical statement and its consequences.

Appeasing (or trying to) the river Gods and spirits early October didn't help either, I vaguely remember.

I didn't look up k. Virabongsa and what he has done before (the usual suspect remarking this likely fact), but even without knowing the (most likely intelligent) gentleman I can say without a shred of doubt in my mind that anything said now on 'no more disaster in five years time' is utter, utter nonsense which only politicians seem to be able to manage to come up with in a moment time and without (visible) hesitation

And that all of us and the the Thai locals will have forgotten about by this time next year!

[chooka]

5 years or tomorrow what's the difference, we all know that tomorrow never comes anyway.

[chainarong]

What a load of rubbish, if this guy is so good, can u please ask him for the winning numbers in Sat nite Aust, US and Euro lotto, I'll give him a generous winners finders fee.

[maidu]

Minister for overseeing redistribution opportunities now?

18 points of negativity...................

First response from Thai Visa denizens.

How sad you all are.

Correction to add rubl's ( what does that mean anyway) erudite contribution.

21 posts of neg.

Tally now much higher, surely your not surprised.

You can call it negativity, or you can call it common sense, or perhaps a warning to easily duped people (Reds, for example) not to be duped continuously.

I don't see how he can achieve the objective if he doesn't have mean to store at least 17billion cubic meter of flood waters that may fall in 7 days....... ........ At best these two dams can absorb 4 and 3 billion cubic meter of flood waters respectively. Any other dams besides these two? We are looking for 10billion cubic meter of flood storage dams to ensure 98% chances Bangkok can be kept dry over the next 50 years.

It's more than dam capacity and dam management. It's also a matter of perspective adjustment: Two points in particular:

A. Stop pouring cement and tar over millions of rai of fields and forests, which ordinarily would soak up water. This would also lessen impacts of droughts, which, along with floods, whose impacts are worsening year by year. 16 months ago: newspaper headlines shouted "WORST DROUGHT IN 20 YEARS!' .....remember that?

B. Relocate Bkk's (and surrounding areas') services to higher ground. You don't need a fortune teller to figure that out.

[BuckarooBanzai]

Until I know more about this guy he will get the benefit of my doubt as worthless as that is.

Virabongsa Ramangkura appears to be one of the few with a realistic view of the situation. It one re-examines the OP only the first three paragraphs are items of information directly from Virabongsa.

His first statement:

My job is to assure local and foreign investors on the reconstruction of the country for higher competitiveness. Within a year from now, the confidence will be restored He is admitting that the current confidence levels in the government have evaporated and that it is his job to rectify this. Pretty tall order but a realistic objective.

and in five years, there would be no more disaster," he told reporters after the appointment.Here he is clearly stating that it will take up to five years to recover from this disaster which sounds pretty reasonable. I do not hear any other government official clearly stating the seriousness of the current event.

Virabongsa, former deputy prime minister, noted that the disaster is more serious than in 1942 and too serious for any government to handle, given that flood-hit areas contribute one third of the economy and house manufacturing centres.A true statement and probably he included it to placate/support those in power who appointed him to this position.

It saddened me as floods in Pathum Thani caused a cut in global production of Toyota and Honda. The inundated manufacturing areas are not significant only to Thailand but to the world, and it's our duty (to take care of the areas).True.

Our job is to assure that next year, this would not reoccur. And we must achieve it, as assurance to local and foreign investors," he said.A commendable objective but based heavily on wishful thinking. But as it is his job to rebuild confidence he is entitled to the power of positive thinking!

I certainly would not want his position. To try and put a positive spin on what the government does as a reaction to this natural disaster and impress the foreign investment bigwigs and restore their confidence in the Thai Gov. will be IMHO pretty difficult. But unlike many other posters on this thread I think the guy sounds pretty reasonable.

[South]

The first time I ever came to Thailand (back in the eighties) a farang guy said to me that Thai politicians were nothing more than rice farmers in suits. I didn't really believe him then or for quite a few years afterwards - BUT, as time has passed, his words now have a very realistic truth about them. You couldn't really make up what is spouted out these days.

*For the Thai politicians reading this: is all I can say.

[ResX]

I don't see how he can achieve the objective if he doesn't have mean to store at least 17billion cubic meter of flood waters that may fall in 7 days. Nobody can' manage the flood waters of this intensity if there is no mean to do so! I doubt he can see the big picture the way I see it. Yes, I'm about 2,000km away from flood sites. Maybe because I'm not a part of the problem I can see the problem quite transparently. Or he just takes chances since he knows only 10% chances that the biggest flood in 50 years will strike any year over the next 5 years?

Annual average rainfall for Chao Phraya cathment is about 70 billion cubic meter, measured at its river mouth. The "deadly" characteristic of flood for any catchment is "Given 50 years period there is close to 100% probability that the catchment will be impounded by intense rainfall amounting to 25% of the catchment's annual rainfall in a period of 7 days". In your case we are talking about 17billion cubic meter of rainfall that falls in 7 days (or less). I think this revelation won't surprise most of you anymore by now since that the total flood water that started all this mess is just below 16billion cubic meter. I would says, yes, it is likely typical flood that has return frequency once in 50 years as claimed. At least close to.

At the moment two major dams that you can partly rely on to stop a 17billion cubic meter "monster", namely Bhumibol & Sirkit. At best these two dams can absorb 4 and 3 billion cubic meter of flood waters respectively. Any other dams besides these two? We are looking for 10billion cubic meter of flood storage dams to ensure 98% chances Bangkok can be kept dry over the next 50 years.

I live near the Bhumiphon Dam, I remember that the Dam was full up to 96% before the flooding of Chiang Mai and Lampang. One engineer of the Dam (friend of my Thai family) told me that all qualified stuff of the Dam asked to open the Dam before the new water would attain the connection with the Wang river (Lampang). Governement refused. The Bumiphon Dam was opened when 100% full. Together with the Wang River the water overflooded Ban Tak, Tak, Khampaeng Phet, etc. and now BKK. Big flood is one thing, low responsability another.

That reminds me to the same situation I was in way back to 1993. I was trying to convince one of our major power generation & flood control reservoir owner (my employer) to start releasing more water as its dam approaching 80% capacity. My suggestion was ignored. Worse that that I was made a laughing stock by executives and ordinary staff for suggesting to them "the impossible scenario". I quote the painful remark from the GM of the dam. He said " Mind your own business and let us to take care of the flood that you think will come this year". During that time that was a myth many believed that the dam is invincible to deal with the biggest flood over the next 50 years! But not for long. Three weeks later there was a not so big flood struck. Ill prepared to deal with such situation caused excessive water had to be released in short period of time. It flooded vast area downstream. Ten of thousands populations displaced from their homes. A small town of about 20 thousands inhabitants near the river mouth was about 3meter under water. I was one of the staff who regulated the dam discharged during the event. Yes, I was beaten by flood once. That made me to come up stronger today. I came back stronger by beaten at least two big floods since then....

Today, the authorities in power generation & flood control dams in my country take up seriously my suggestion. In 2009, based on my improved strategy to deal with floods we saved one big flood for one of our major power generation & flood control dams. The dam is slightly smaller than Sirkit dam in term of storage size but bigger in term of power generation. The flood that we have managed to deal with is the biggest in 40 years (The biggest so far). In 2004, for the same dam that I was beaten in 1993 when I was a front line operator managed to deal with even bigger than the one that had beaten us before. Today I am one of the resource persons related to dams operations for my employer.

That is one thing top decision makers for major flood dams don't realize. The people behind the dams round the clock 24/7/365 days sometimes can feel the danger is in the making by looking at how their dams water levels changes daily.

[Skorz]

PM announces 3-phase flood rehabilitation plan to restore confidence

BANGKOK, Nov 8 -- Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra on Tuesday announced "Strategic Measures for the Country's Rehabilitation" – a three-phase post-flood action plan to build confidence, regain trust, and restore the country's prosperity and stability in the long-term in a manner that is sustainable and systematic.

Speaking at a news conference at the Santi Maitree Building in the Government House compound, Ms Yingluck said the government's strategy for the country's rehabilitation was divided into three phases or 3Rs – Rescue, Restore and Rebuild.

She said the immediate phase or 'Rescue' would be completed within 1-2 months depending on the flood situation. This stage would be the responsibility of Justice Minister Pracha Promnog as chair of the Flood Relief Operations Centre (FROC).

The second phase – Restore – which is a short-term phase, will start its operation after the floodwaters have receded and will be complete within one year. This phase will cover rehabilitation and remedies to the economy, infrastructure and quality of life of the people. Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister Yongyuth Wichaidit will oversee the task.

The third phase – Rebuild – the long-term phase would involve actions to build confidence, regain trust, and restore the country's prosperity and stability, she said.

This task would be divided under the supervision of two committees, the Strategic Formulation Committee for Reconstruction and Future Development (SCRF) and the Strategic Formulation Committee for Water Resources Management (SCWRM). A number of eminent persons and leaders in business sector were appointed as members.

She said the government has invited former finance minister Veerapong Ramangkura to chair SCRF while Deputy Prime Minister and Commerce Minister Kittirat Na-Ranong, on behalf of the premier, would chair the SCWRM.

Eminent persons with knowledge and expertise on water management will also be appointed as members while Dr Sumet Tantivejkul, head of the Chaipattana Foundation implementing royal projects, was invited to be an advisor.

Each committee has been requested to propose a timeframe for its work to the cabinet as soon as possible.

"The government has considered the rehabilitation as national agenda in order to move the country forward. The government promises that it will do its utmost to restore confidence and faith in the Kingdom so as to lead the country forward with stability. To this end, we will together overcome the crisis" the premier said. (MCOT online news)

-- TNA 2011-11-08

This is all very nice and optimistic. However, what they seem to have forgotten is that flooding is seasonal and does not happen every five years. So, they'll be in the middle of phase 2 'Restore' , and then Thailand will flood again. So back to phase 1 add infinitum. Except that each year it will get a little bit worse. A perpetual state of fire fighting. Hmm.

[Buchholz]

BANGKOK, Nov 8 -- Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra on Tuesday announced “Strategic Measures for the Country’s Rehabilitation” – a three-phase post-flood action plan to build confidence, regain trust, and restore the country’s prosperity and stability in the long-term in a manner that is sustainable and systematic.

Is the “Strategic Measures for the Country’s Rehabilitation Plan” in addition to or in place of the the "New Thailand Project" that was announced just a few days earlier?

Is there a "plan" to decide what "project" to go with or are there still other "plans" and "projects" in the pipeline?

Parliamentarians expressed concern yesterday over the government's "New Thailand Project" to manage the country's water-related problems, which will require as much as Bt800 Billion in funding.

.