I Ordered A Delay In The Release Of Water From Dam: Agriculture Minister Theera

[gregb]

at last they found the scapegote for cooling down the pressure on PM. good move.

Who ordered him to admit he gave the order?

No way he did this out of conscience.

Exactly. IMO he is just the fall guy. He will quit soon, take sole responsibility and the YS govt is out of the woods.

You SERIOUSLY think that this is sufficient to brush it all under the carpet and it will soon all be forgotten!!!!!!!

I doooont think sooooooo!!!!!!! Just you wait and see when a post mortem analysis is carried out after the floods have receded.

It's curtains for Yingluck - and the whole shambles of a "mickey Mouse" government that is jokingly running Thailand at the moment.

One can only hope and pray for this as it has created so much misery and turmoil in the Kingdom (and that's barely after 3 months of mismanagement of monster proportions)!!!:jap:.

Its not "Incredible India" - its "Incredible Thailand"!!

The class action law suit being proposed is an excellent example of why they will not be able to brush this aside. Not every court can be bought by the current government. I'm sure some judges lost their homes in this scandal as well and would like to hear what really happened.

This will not be brushed aside. Everyone is hurting right now, licking their wounds and trying to solve the day to day problems, so it might appear to be that way for a while. But once this phase is over, people will be angry. Extremely angry. This will not go away, although right now I'm sure YS is busy trying to convince herself that it can be brushed aside by her dear brother. It won't, and the opposition will see to it that it won't.

[DeepInTheForest]

So in this forum we have a huge amount of sound and fury concerning the release of water from the Bhumibol dam.

But-- the dam's capacity is 13.5 million cubic meters, and the water inundating Bangkok is estimated at 14 billion cubic meters.

How much do we really think that the timing of releases from this dam matters in terms of Bangkok's flooding?

We also hear many calls for even more dams. The dams are ineffective against flooding, as has been demonstrated here. Do we think that more dams will help matters?

Bhumibol dam capacity is 13,462,000,000 m3, or 13 and a half Billion cubic meters.

The flood water is estimated at 14 billion liters.

Managed properly (ie not for the sole benefit of one family and friends rice crop at hugely inflated subsidised prices) this dam, with others, would have been effective in preventing any flooding. But alas, the country is being run for the benefit of the Thaksin amart. In fact as this flood was well under way, the only thing the govt was doing was furiously planning and preparing for his excellency's triumphant return.

You are quite right, I stand corrected as regards the Bhumibol dam's capacity. Never rely solely on wikipedia for factual info, is the lesson learned here.

But I still need to convince myself that even optimal water releases could have attenuated the flooding by any significant amount... Back to doing more research, I'm afraid.

[maidu]

Brilliant, well thought out and realistic. Peeps must also realise that Thailand is the largest exporter of rice in the world so aside from the fact rice in its many forms is a staple of Thai diet it also brings in a lot of money from overseas.

Yes, rice is important to Thailand, both for domestic consumption and for export. No one is saying rice should not continue to be grown here. The suggestion is to wean Thailand away from being so mono-typic with rice, as there are several drawbacks - these current floods are but one indication of that. Tree and vine crops (nuts/fruits) would not be as vunerable to floods and droughts.

[ResX]

So in this forum we have a huge amount of sound and fury concerning the release of water from the Bhumibol dam.

But-- the dam's capacity is 13.5 million cubic meters, and the water inundating Bangkok is estimated at 14 billion cubic meters.

How much do we really think that the timing of releases from this dam matters in terms of Bangkok's flooding?

We also hear many calls for even more dams. The dams are ineffective against flooding, as has been demonstrated here. Do we think that more dams will help matters?

Bhumibol dam capacity is 13,462,000,000 m3, or 13 and a half Billion cubic meters.

The flood water is estimated at 14 billion liters.

Managed properly (ie not for the sole benefit of one family and friends rice crop at hugely inflated subsidised prices) this dam, with others, would have been effective in preventing any flooding. But alas, the country is being run for the benefit of the Thaksin amart. In fact as this flood was well under way, the only thing the govt was doing was furiously planning and preparing for his excellency's triumphant return.

You are quite right, I stand corrected as regards the Bhumibol dam's capacity. Never rely solely on wikipedia for factual info, is the lesson learned here.

But I still need to convince myself that even optimal water releases could have attenuated the flooding by any significant amount... Back to doing more research, I'm afraid.

The actual capacitiy for Bhumibol that you are trying to look for is 9.7billion cubic meter. Close to 4billion cubic meter of its storage is called the death storage. It is useless for dam daily operations. I doubt if it still there. The chance is it has been filled up by sediments.

At best, you can rely Bhumibol & Sirkit to hold 7 billion cubic meter of flood water, taking into consideration that they are the multi purpose dams. So that the dams if they were properly regulated could cut down the areas to be inundated by about 40%. Not bad after all since the catchment areas for the two dams represent 22% of the total catchment for Chao Phraya river.

The measure of success for these two dams can be done by calculating how much the intended flood waters that they have managed to capture during the recent floods. Full mark for 7billion cubic meter, and zero mark for zero storage. I would say the actual are something between these two. It is unwise to judge the functionality of these two dams based on whether they can or cannot protect Bangkok from floods.

The measure for a minimum success whether Thailand government has done good job to protect its citizens from flood can be done by adding up the storage capacities for all the flood control structures within the Chao Phraya catchment.. Minimum requirement for minimum passing mark as I can learn by now is 17 billion cubic meter, There is no short cut approach to deal with this a "17billion cubic meter monster" that will try to travel along the Chao Phraya in 5 days. There is no simple solution to resolve this problem. Thailand has to have the mean to capture and control this "monster" that has its return interval at least once in 50 years.

Edited November 12, 2011 by ResX

[MaxYakov]

So in this forum we have a huge amount of sound and fury concerning the release of water from the Bhumibol dam.

But-- the dam's capacity is 13.5 million cubic meters, and the water inundating Bangkok is estimated at 14 billion cubic meters.

How much do we really think that the timing of releases from this dam matters in terms of Bangkok's flooding?

We also hear many calls for even more dams. The dams are ineffective against flooding, as has been demonstrated here. Do we think that more dams will help matters?

Bhumibol dam capacity is 13,462,000,000 m3, or 13 and a half Billion cubic meters.

The flood water is estimated at 14 billion liters.

Managed properly (ie not for the sole benefit of one family and friends rice crop at hugely inflated subsidised prices) this dam, with others, would have been effective in preventing any flooding. But alas, the country is being run for the benefit of the Thaksin amart. In fact as this flood was well under way, the only thing the govt was doing was furiously planning and preparing for his excellency's triumphant return.

You are quite right, I stand corrected as regards the Bhumibol dam's capacity. Never rely solely on wikipedia for factual info, is the lesson learned here.

But I still need to convince myself that even optimal water releases could have attenuated the flooding by any significant amount... Back to doing more research, I'm afraid.

And maybe reading more carefully - Bhumibol Dam Wiki Entry

The dam is an arch-gravity type and is 154 m (505 ft) tall, 486 m (1,594 ft) long and 8 m (26 ft) wide at its crest. It withholds a reservoir of 13,462,000,000 m³ (10,913,821 acre·ft) of which 9,762,000,000 m³ (7,914,182 acre·ft) is active or "useful" storage. The dam's catchment area is 26,400 km² (10,193 sq mi) while its surface area is 300 km²

P.S.: To be fair, I don't trust Wiki either, even the 9.762 billion number - it could be, at best, outdated. I think ResX has a lower figure.

Edited November 12, 2011 by MaxYakov

[animatic]

So in this forum we have a huge amount of sound and fury concerning the release of water from the Bhumibol dam.

But-- the dam's capacity is 13.5 million cubic meters, and the water inundating Bangkok is estimated at 14 billion cubic meters.

How much do we really think that the timing of releases from this dam matters in terms of Bangkok's flooding?

We also hear many calls for even more dams. The dams are ineffective against flooding, as has been demonstrated here. Do we think that more dams will help matters?

Bhumibol dam capacity is 13,462,000,000 m3, or 13 and a half Billion cubic meters.

The flood water is estimated at 14 billion liters.

Managed properly (ie not for the sole benefit of one family and friends rice crop at hugely inflated subsidised prices) this dam, with others, would have been effective in preventing any flooding. But alas, the country is being run for the benefit of the Thaksin amart. In fact as this flood was well under way, the only thing the govt was doing was furiously planning and preparing for his excellency's triumphant return.

You are quite right, I stand corrected as regards the Bhumibol dam's capacity. Never rely solely on wikipedia for factual info, is the lesson learned here.

But I still need to convince myself that even optimal water releases could have attenuated the flooding by any significant amount... Back to doing more research, I'm afraid.

And there are THREE dams, not just the Bhomibhol.

Plain and simple this was manageable amounts of water, till 'someone indicated they did not want water flooding certain sections before the harvest'....

By the time it became a crisis for the dams, it was to late to use normal means and reasonable amounts of controlled flooding to dispose of the overload of water.

This may seem like sound and fury here, but the real sound and fury is waist deep in water in great portions of Thailands streets, and unable to comment here. Most of them have limited access to this type of discussion, and we here intend to not let it get buried by disinformation and face saving gibberish, before the great majority can also come and say their piece about it.

Edited November 12, 2011 by animatic

[Samuian]

However, whate ver - TiT never stops to raelly amaze me - they really found the guy who admit's it all!

[rheinwiese]

I really hope this won't be swept under the rug, however we've seen it too many times that all of a sudden people magically disappear, suffer from amnesia or case dismissed due to a technicality. "Honest mistake" springs to mind also.

[animatic]

However, whate ver - TiT never stops to raelly amaze me - they really found the guy who admit's it all!

In Thailand 'The Buck Stops Near The Top'.

[MaxYakov]

So in this forum we have a huge amount of sound and fury concerning the release of water from the Bhumibol dam.

But-- the dam's capacity is 13.5 million cubic meters, and the water inundating Bangkok is estimated at 14 billion cubic meters.

How much do we really think that the timing of releases from this dam matters in terms of Bangkok's flooding?

We also hear many calls for even more dams. The dams are ineffective against flooding, as has been demonstrated here. Do we think that more dams will help matters?

Bhumibol dam capacity is 13,462,000,000 m3, or 13 and a half Billion cubic meters.

The flood water is estimated at 14 billion liters.

Managed properly (ie not for the sole benefit of one family and friends rice crop at hugely inflated subsidised prices) this dam, with others, would have been effective in preventing any flooding. But alas, the country is being run for the benefit of the Thaksin amart. In fact as this flood was well under way, the only thing the govt was doing was furiously planning and preparing for his excellency's triumphant return.

You are quite right, I stand corrected as regards the Bhumibol dam's capacity. Never rely solely on wikipedia for factual info, is the lesson learned here.

But I still need to convince myself that even optimal water releases could have attenuated the flooding by any significant amount... Back to doing more research, I'm afraid.

And there are THREE dams, not just the Bhomibhol.

Plain and simple this was manageable amounts of water, till 'someone indicated they did not want water flooding certain sections before the harvest'....

By the time it became a crisis for the dams, it was to late to use normal means and reasonable amounts of controlled flooding to dispose of the overload of water.

This may seem like sound and fury here, but the real sound and fury is waist deep in water in great portions of Thailands streets, and unable to comment here. Most of them have limited access to this type of discussion, and we here intend to not let it get buried by disinformation and face saving gibberish, before the great majority can also come and say their piece about it.

Well, there was some sound and fury in the Thai Parliament yesterday over the dam management issue (among many others). Images courtesy NBT TV nbttv.prd.go.th. Can ordinary Thai over-the-air TV viewers get NBT TV? Mine is via cable.

Edited November 12, 2011 by MaxYakov

[hammered]

If anyone is interested in the water release and entry charts for the two biggest dams Bangkok pundit has had them up for a while.

[ResX]

So in this forum we have a huge amount of sound and fury concerning the release of water from the Bhumibol dam.

But-- the dam's capacity is 13.5 million cubic meters, and the water inundating Bangkok is estimated at 14 billion cubic meters.

How much do we really think that the timing of releases from this dam matters in terms of Bangkok's flooding?

We also hear many calls for even more dams. The dams are ineffective against flooding, as has been demonstrated here. Do we think that more dams will help matters?

Bhumibol dam capacity is 13,462,000,000 m3, or 13 and a half Billion cubic meters.

The flood water is estimated at 14 billion liters.

Managed properly (ie not for the sole benefit of one family and friends rice crop at hugely inflated subsidised prices) this dam, with others, would have been effective in preventing any flooding. But alas, the country is being run for the benefit of the Thaksin amart. In fact as this flood was well under way, the only thing the govt was doing was furiously planning and preparing for his excellency's triumphant return.

You are quite right, I stand corrected as regards the Bhumibol dam's capacity. Never rely solely on wikipedia for factual info, is the lesson learned here.

But I still need to convince myself that even optimal water releases could have attenuated the flooding by any significant amount... Back to doing more research, I'm afraid.

And there are THREE dams, not just the Bhomibhol.

Plain and simple this was manageable amounts of water, till 'someone indicated they did not want water flooding certain sections before the harvest'....

By the time it became a crisis for the dams, it was to late to use normal means and reasonable amounts of controlled flooding to dispose of the overload of water.

This may seem like sound and fury here, but the real sound and fury is waist deep in water in great portions of Thailands streets, and unable to comment here. Most of them have limited access to this type of discussion, and we here intend to not let it get buried by disinformation and face saving gibberish, before the great majority can also come and say their piece about it.

If the other dams one or more can store at least 14 billion cubic meter it is safer to say that the recent floods are almost purely mismanagement problem. Otherwise they are mixed.

You can rely on wiki information that the actual storage size for Bhumibol (useful one) is 9.78billion cubic meter. But you cannot rely on this value when it comes to flood control capability. At ,most only half of this figure counts. The other important aspect of flood control is developing the strategy to deal with it. This aspect is as important as the design of the dam itself. As far as I can see there is room for improvements for both Bhumibol & Sirkit. I don't know about the third one although I wise to know.

Edited November 12, 2011 by ResX

[ResX]

If anyone is interested in the water release and entry charts for the two biggest dams Bangkok pundit has had them up for a while.

Yup. I have gone through that chart last week. Very informative. The fact that I share BP final conclusion about the recent floods whether it was too much water or purely mismanagement issue.

[Thaddeus]

Can ordinary Thai over-the-air TV viewers get NBT TV? Mine is via cable.

Pretty sure they can, but probably busy watching a drama instead of a crisis.

If the Pols started slapping each other around a bit it may increase the viewing numbers.

[MaxYakov]

Can ordinary Thai over-the-air TV viewers get NBT TV? Mine is via cable.

Pretty sure they can, but probably busy watching a drama instead of a crisis.

If the Pols started slapping each other around a bit it may increase the viewing numbers.

Agree, providing the TV hasn't been looted or tested for crush-depth.

[473geo]

If anyone is interested in the water release and entry charts for the two biggest dams Bangkok pundit has had them up for a while.

Can't be letting facts get in the way of a good conspiracy theory.......the water was released at the lowest level for years through spring to the end of July, yes,after this period of slow release it became impossible to disperse the amount of held water mixed with the arriving water, been mentioned previously on this thread, but as difficulty with water in full flow, so with the pundits in full flow on Tvisa.........

Fear of not having enough water to fulfill the need in the face of a drought is probably the answer to the cause of the current situation.........

Edited November 12, 2011 by 473geo

[animatic]

If anyone is interested in the water release and entry charts for the two biggest dams Bangkok pundit has had them up for a while.

Can't be letting facts get in the way of a good conspiracy theory.......the water was released at the lowest level for years through spring to the end of July, yes,after this period of slow release it became impossible to disperse the amount of held water mixed with the arriving water, been mentioned previously on this thread, but as difficulty with water in full flow, so with the pundits in full flow on Tvisa.........

Fear of not having enough water to fulfill the need in the face of a drought is probably the answer to the cause of the current situation.........

Yes, those charts were up there, but the conclusions drawn by competing sides prove to be just so much 'massaging of facts to fit a political hypothesis'.

Lies,

Damned Lies,

and Statistics.

One man's set of irrefutable statistics as fact,

is another man's incomplete data set, giving a false conclusion.

Statistics don't lie, but those presenting them often do.

The more complicated the better to confuse the issue,

and shift the blame with partial facts melded with wishful thinking.

Or simply propaganda, through misuse of statistics.

Edited November 12, 2011 by animatic

[ResX]

If anyone is interested in the water release and entry charts for the two biggest dams Bangkok pundit has had them up for a while.

Can't be letting facts get in the way of a good conspiracy theory.......the water was released at the lowest level for years through spring to the end of July, yes,after this period of slow release it became impossible to disperse the amount of held water mixed with the arriving water, been mentioned previously on this thread, but as difficulty with water in full flow, so with the pundits in full flow on Tvisa.........

Fear of not having enough water to fulfill the need in the face of a drought is probably the answer to the cause of the current situation.........

Or probably lack of knowledge about what the dams can do and what they cannot do. To be precise the design dams such as Bhumibol have already considered emergency storage for prolong drought. At 60% storage level or about 6 billion cubic meter of live storage for Bhumibol case, the level of stored water is equivalent to a year average cumulative rainfall for its catchment. This was made for a purpose of no other than for flood control requirement.

The operational philosophy is like this. Bhumibol has to keep its storage level at 60% every year before the floods period. Under the worst case scenario (drought) no such floods come, then the remaining storage can be used over the next one year until the next monsoon. If we ignore evaporation factor, the dam could provide average water consumptions for various stake holders even it will not get a drop of rainfall over the next one year. Can we ask this dam to perform better than this? Oh yes. We can. Just pretend that 60% rule does not exist. Bring the dam water level as high as possible by keeping as much water as possible. Unfortunately, the dam can get really mad. Thais never like when this dam gets mad. I'm very sure about it.

Edited November 12, 2011 by ResX

[ResX]

So in this forum we have a huge amount of sound and fury concerning the release of water from the Bhumibol dam.

But-- the dam's capacity is 13.5 million cubic meters, and the water inundating Bangkok is estimated at 14 billion cubic meters.

How much do we really think that the timing of releases from this dam matters in terms of Bangkok's flooding?

We also hear many calls for even more dams. The dams are ineffective against flooding, as has been demonstrated here. Do we think that more dams will help matters?

Bhumibol dam capacity is 13,462,000,000 m3, or 13 and a half Billion cubic meters.

The flood water is estimated at 14 billion liters.

Managed properly (ie not for the sole benefit of one family and friends rice crop at hugely inflated subsidised prices) this dam, with others, would have been effective in preventing any flooding. But alas, the country is being run for the benefit of the Thaksin amart. In fact as this flood was well under way, the only thing the govt was doing was furiously planning and preparing for his excellency's triumphant return.

You are quite right, I stand corrected as regards the Bhumibol dam's capacity. Never rely solely on wikipedia for factual info, is the lesson learned here.

But I still need to convince myself that even optimal water releases could have attenuated the flooding by any significant amount... Back to doing more research, I'm afraid.

And there are THREE dams, not just the Bhomibhol.

Plain and simple this was manageable amounts of water, till 'someone indicated they did not want water flooding certain sections before the harvest'....

By the time it became a crisis for the dams, it was to late to use normal means and reasonable amounts of controlled flooding to dispose of the overload of water.

This may seem like sound and fury here, but the real sound and fury is waist deep in water in great portions of Thailands streets, and unable to comment here. Most of them have limited access to this type of discussion, and we here intend to not let it get buried by disinformation and face saving gibberish, before the great majority can also come and say their piece about it.

What is the name for the third one mate?

[ResX]

Pasak dam.. I usually walk the dogs on the dam floor every year.. But not this year, the water level never went down as normal. All the opportunist rice farmers who plant their crops on the fertile dam floor lost their crops.

.

This is not statistics, this is what i saw. The dam level never went down to the normal levels because they did not let the water out. It was much higher than all the previous years.

Even I could not understand why the water stayed so high when there was so much water on the way from the north.

Many places in Bangkok have flooded because of this change in levels.

Maybe there would still have been a flood in Bangkok, but thousands of more people would have stayed dry if they had done what they normal did.(Opps bad english)

The decision to hold onto the water has cost millions of baht. and misery and suffering to thousands of Thais

I agreed with you. Even before this confession I have come to a conclusion in one of my posts that there were systematic actions to build up water levels for Bhumibol & Sirkit.

Pasak? I have come across this dam too. Due to some reasons, I was lead to believe that it is belong to other rivers. Is it made a part of Chao Phraya catchment? I got two conflicting data for this dam. One source says its storage is 17billion cubic meter and the other source says 7 billion cubic meter.

If Pasak dam is apart of Chao Phraya catchment and its live storage capacity is above 7billion cubic meter, I have one good news. There is not much to be done by Thais to beat that 17billion cubic meter monster, next time of course. Let's forget about flood super highway to divert the flood waters. Find good international experts in water management and a few final touch up will do the job.

And I'm afraid the recent floods could be almost purely mismanagement of water resources issue.

[BuckarooBanzai]

Pasak dam.. I usually walk the dogs on the dam floor every year.. But not this year, the water level never went down as normal. All the opportunist rice farmers who plant their crops on the fertile dam floor lost their crops.

This is not statistics, this is what i saw. The dam level never went down to the normal levels because they did not let the water out. It was much higher than all the previous years.

Even I could not understand why the water stayed so high when there was so much water on the way from the north.

Many places in Bangkok have flooded because of this change in levels.

Maybe there would still have been a flood in Bangkok, but thousands of more people would have stayed dry if they had done what they normal did.(Opps bad english)

The decision to hold onto the water has cost millions of baht. and misery and suffering to thousands of Thais

I agreed with you. Even before this confession I have come to a conclusion in one of my posts that there were systematic actions to build up water levels for Bhumibol & Sirkit.

Pasak? I have come across this dam too. Due to some reasons, I was lead to believe that it is belong to other rivers. Is it made a part of Chao Phraya catchment? I got two conflicting data for this dam. One source says its storage is 17billion cubic meter and the other source says 7 billion cubic meter.

If Pasak dam is apart of Chao Phraya catchment and its live storage capacity is above 7billion cubic meter, I have one good news. There is not much to be done by Thais to beat that 17billion cubic meter monster, next time of course. Let's forget about flood super highway to divert the flood waters. Find good international experts in water management and a few final touch up will do the job.

And I'm afraid the recent floods could be almost purely mismanagement of water resources issue.

ResX, I have given you a lot to support even when you were explaining the benefits of 1000 propellers because I recognized you were a person working in the flood control profession and had some extensive knowledge of the dams. But if you refuse to recognize the necessity of a direct path to the the gulf for flood waters I am giving up on you as a misguided individual. Anyone who does not have a clue to what I am talking about needs to go back and look but ResX comment about a super highway to the gulf says it all. This can be done very effectively and benignly and has been recommended for decades.

[bigbamboo]

"It's a fair cop, guv. It was me what did it."

Edited November 12, 2011 by bigbamboo

[ResX]

Pasak dam.. I usually walk the dogs on the dam floor every year.. But not this year, the water level never went down as normal. All the opportunist rice farmers who plant their crops on the fertile dam floor lost their crops.

This is not statistics, this is what i saw. The dam level never went down to the normal levels because they did not let the water out. It was much higher than all the previous years.

Even I could not understand why the water stayed so high when there was so much water on the way from the north.

Many places in Bangkok have flooded because of this change in levels.

Maybe there would still have been a flood in Bangkok, but thousands of more people would have stayed dry if they had done what they normal did.(Opps bad english)

The decision to hold onto the water has cost millions of baht. and misery and suffering to thousands of Thais

I agreed with you. Even before this confession I have come to a conclusion in one of my posts that there were systematic actions to build up water levels for Bhumibol & Sirkit.

Pasak? I have come across this dam too. Due to some reasons, I was lead to believe that it is belong to other rivers. Is it made a part of Chao Phraya catchment? I got two conflicting data for this dam. One source says its storage is 17billion cubic meter and the other source says 7 billion cubic meter.

If Pasak dam is apart of Chao Phraya catchment and its live storage capacity is above 7billion cubic meter, I have one good news. There is not much to be done by Thais to beat that 17billion cubic meter monster, next time of course. Let's forget about flood super highway to divert the flood waters. Find good international experts in water management and a few final touch up will do the job.

And I'm afraid the recent floods could be almost purely mismanagement of water resources issue.

ResX, I have given you a lot of support even when you were explaining the benefits of 1000 propellers because I recognized you were a person working in the flood control profession and had some extensive knowledge of the dams. But if you refuse to recognize the necessity of a direct path to the the gulf for flood waters I am giving up on you as a misguided individual. Anyone who does not have a clue to what I am talking about needs to go back and look but ResX comment about a super highway to the gulf says it all. This can be done very effectively and benignly and has been recommended for decades.

Thank you for your support. I do appreciate. Let me share the fact that I suppose you have yet to know. The average annual rainfall for the Chao Phraya catchment is 70billion cubic meter measured at its river mouth. So the average discharge that you know for sure won't cause flooding comes out to be 2,200 cubic meter per second. Otherwise Bangkok will be flooded 50% of the time. Probably you have known this by now since I have mentioned this at least 3 times.

From the past history of big floods for Chao Phraya I can conclude that the maximum discharge that does not cause any serious flood to Bangkok is around 2,800 cubic meter measured at river mouth. This is, I believe at the lower side of the estimate. The current flood has the discharge of 4,700 cubic meter per second. So we know that this is typical flood that holds the biggest discharge in 50 years.

If we can discharge the water from any dam via the existing river at the rate of 2,800 cubic meter per second in a year we can actually move the water to the sea at the rate of 88.3 billion cubic meter per annum. In here I have to use the information that very specific to practice engineers in this business. You have seen the flow of this size at least 2 times over the last 40 years. I am very sure about it. But then , have you come across the floods of current size? The answer is no. So I can conclude that discharging at the rate of 2,800 cubic meter per second through Choa Phraya river for as long as you want will not cause serious floods over Bangkok.

Now, the problematic water that caused all this mess is in fact just below 16 billion cubic meter. In practice, we usually assume the biggest flood with 2% probability of occurrence has its intensity equivalent to 25% of annual average inflow that falls in not less than 7 days (Sometimes 4-5 days is used based on the size of catchment). Then it comes to 17.5billion cubic meter that falls in 7 days.

Let us prepare Bhumibol to take 7 billion out of this 17 billion cubic meter. Let assume Pasak and a few others dams can take another 10billion cubic meter. Get hold of that flood water when it comes. i.e. 17billion cubic meter. Maintain the total discharge at 2,800 cubic meter per second measured at river mouth. For all we know this discharge won't cause any serious flooding.

The floods will soon slowing down. Normally it is far shorter than two months. Then we have 10 months at least to release waters the dams have previously kept. How much the average discharge if we spread 17billion cubic meter evenly over a period of 300days? I did the calculation for you. It is just 655cubic meter per second. If we are assuming the average rainfalls for the current year 88.3 billion cubic meter (2800 cubic meter per second) then the actual average discharge including additional release associated with 17 billion cubic meter becomes 3,455 cubic meter per second. This is far lower than 4,700 cubic meter per second as what has been experienced at the moment. At best no area will be flooded. At worst a few pockets will be inundated. For the worst case scenario, just work out the defense structures within that areas. It is far cheaper than super highway flood diversion.

It is a matter of fact that such concept (Super highway) is going to work. I have no doubt about it. But I will show you later it is in fact nor better than using the current route that the water has created for us since 5,000++ years ago. Water is the best highway builder as far as such highway is for itself....

Whatever I was trying to prove, we can't save the properties that "invade" natural route that frequently used by water, such as once in 4-10 years. The reasonable flood plains that can be protected are typically the ones that "invade" the route used by water only once in 25 years or longer.

Edited November 12, 2011 by ResX

[ResX]

Pasak dam.. I usually walk the dogs on the dam floor every year.. But not this year, the water level never went down as normal. All the opportunist rice farmers who plant their crops on the fertile dam floor lost their crops.

.

This is not statistics, this is what i saw. The dam level never went down to the normal levels because they did not let the water out. It was much higher than all the previous years.

Even I could not understand why the water stayed so high when there was so much water on the way from the north.

Many places in Bangkok have flooded because of this change in levels.

Maybe there would still have been a flood in Bangkok, but thousands of more people would have stayed dry if they had done what they normal did.(Opps bad english)

The decision to hold onto the water has cost millions of baht. and misery and suffering to thousands of Thais

I have come across the information about this dam. It is very small relative to the size of flood. Just below 1billion cubic meter. We cannot hold this dam liable for the recent flood. But it does improve flood control & mitigation capability for Thailand. There is another big dam I supposed I have come across. The Chao Phraya dam. Why this dam has not been put into a limelight unlike Bhumibol & Sirkit? Any body has tecnical information about this dam? Such tributary it serves? where its discharge ultimately meet the main stream of Chao Phraya,? its storage & useful storage size?

[ResX]

I just wonder what these 3,000 dams were doing during just below 16billion cubic meter of water impounded the Chao Phraya catchment. How much water they could hold? How much water they actually managed to hold? Or like their big brothers they followed the suit to release rather that to hold?

I wish that I know.

After all the past powers that be have done a lot to provide prosperity for the Thais. Probably a little final touch up here and there can resolve the problem. I'm sure Thailand needs an Integrated Water Resources Management System, irrespectively whether it is going to opt for a 50 years project to build water super expressway or not.

From Unesco source:

Surface water storage

Since 1950 the Government has constructed some 3,000 dams to store the monsoon flows for release in the dry-season to exploit the Chao Phraya basin's vast agricultural potential and to meet the growing demands of industrial and urban users. The two largest dams constructed were the Bhumibol and Sirikit Dams to supply stored water for electricity generation, irrigation, and domestic and industrial water use. Together these two dams control the runoff from 22% of the area of the entire basin. Bhumibol Dam on the Ping River has a live storage capacity of 9.7 billion cubic meters (bm3), compared to the average annual inflow of 6.6 bm3 from a drainage basin of 26,400 km2. The installed hydroelectricity generation capacity is 713 MW. The dam was completed in 1963, and filled for the first time in 1970. Sirikit Dam on the Nan River was completed in 1972 and has a live storage capacity of 6.0 bm3 compared to the average annual inflow of 5.9 bm3. The installed hydroelectricity generation capacity is 500 MW. Several other large dams (Kiew Lom, Mae Ngat, Mae Kuang, Mae Chang, Thap Salao and Kra Sieo) have also been built during the last 20 years to increase the total surface water storage in the Basin, and recently another dam, the Pasak Dam, was commissioned in 2000.

Source: http://www.unesco.org/water/wwap/case_studies/chao_phraya/index.shtml

[ResX]

If anyone is interested in the water release and entry charts for the two biggest dams Bangkok pundit has had them up for a while.

Can't be letting facts get in the way of a good conspiracy theory.......the water was released at the lowest level for years through spring to the end of July, yes,after this period of slow release it became impossible to disperse the amount of held water mixed with the arriving water, been mentioned previously on this thread, but as difficulty with water in full flow, so with the pundits in full flow on Tvisa.........

Fear of not having enough water to fulfill the need in the face of a drought is probably the answer to the cause of the current situation.........

Yes, those charts were up there, but the conclusions drawn by competing sides prove to be just so much 'massaging of facts to fit a political hypothesis'.

Lies,

Damned Lies,

and Statistics.

One man's set of irrefutable statistics as fact,

is another man's incomplete data set, giving a false conclusion.

Statistics don't lie, but those presenting them often do.

The more complicated the better to confuse the issue,

and shift the blame with partial facts melded with wishful thinking.

Or simply propaganda, through misuse of statistics.

It won't be the same if the dam was operated based on authority sanctioned "Standard Operating Procedure". You can always define right or wrong based on what has already been agreed to be the right one.

You just emphasized my point that Thailand is missing something along this line. Systematic and objectives oriented dams operations versus random one, putting the mercy of the dams in the hands of the power that be.

[konfuzed]

"Weather forecasting had been problematic, Theera said, as the Meteorological Department can only forecast conditions one week in advance".

That's how it is, and you better get used to it!

Don't believe the clown at the head of the meteorological department who said recently,that with a new weather radar system he could predict a whole monsoon season!

NONSENSE!!

Miracle year in Amazing Thailand!

[Chopperboy]

Three crops per year on the same parcel?!?!? Even two crops per year is dicey. Soil need to be replenished, rejuvenated. Thais know nothing about composting and very little about mulching. Each year, many rice farmers burn most parts of the rice plant left over after harvesting. . the rice in Thai food bowls is basically starch, nearly devoid of nutrients. It's like a filler or something to make paper mache glue. Such a nutrition-poor staple also affects the thinking ability of Thais - particularly children.

The problem with intensive farming is that the soil becomes DE-MINERALIZED. If there isn't nutrients in the soil then they won't be in the food. An apple in the 1920's contained 14 times more nutrients than a farm apple today. So in other words you would have to eat 14 apples to get the benefit of just one back in those days.

[smiling mantis]

Why be so harsh in judgement. If he had let water release from dams - and it turned out to be a dry latter part of the monsoon, then he would be blamed not storing enough water for the 2nd or 3rd rice crop.

Completely agree. You're damned if you do, damned if you don't.

The only blame I can see being usefully applied at this point concerns the information flow. Both in obtaining correct information in the first place, and then in properly disseminating it. The Yingluck administration is blameless in the former case, but for the latter the situation is murkier. Too many officials shooting from the hip caused a lot of problems, but then too, a lot of this can be traced to the lack of good, hard data.

The government should press the U.S. to release its super-accurate radar elevation data for Thailand, vastly expand the number of locations over which rainfall data is collected, institute a regimen whereby these same locations are tasked with providing accurate flood water levels when the floods do hit, and then finally commission the creation of software that will allow all of the above data to be used to create accurate and timely predictions on the movement of flood waters.

[animatic]

If anyone is interested in the water release and entry charts for the two biggest dams Bangkok pundit has had them up for a while.

Can't be letting facts get in the way of a good conspiracy theory.......the water was released at the lowest level for years through spring to the end of July, yes,after this period of slow release it became impossible to disperse the amount of held water mixed with the arriving water, been mentioned previously on this thread, but as difficulty with water in full flow, so with the pundits in full flow on Tvisa.........

Fear of not having enough water to fulfill the need in the face of a drought is probably the answer to the cause of the current situation.........

Yes, those charts were up there, but the conclusions drawn by competing sides prove to be just so much 'massaging of facts to fit a political hypothesis'.

Lies,

Damned Lies,

and Statistics.

One man's set of irrefutable statistics as fact,

is another man's incomplete data set, giving a false conclusion.

Statistics don't lie, but those presenting them often do.

The more complicated the better to confuse the issue,

and shift the blame with partial facts melded with wishful thinking.

Or simply propaganda, through misuse of statistics.

It won't be the same if the dam was operated based on authority sanctioned "Standard Operating Procedure". You can always define right or wrong based on what has already been agreed to be the right one.

You just emphasized my point that Thailand is missing something along this line. Systematic and objectives oriented dams operations versus random one, putting the mercy of the dams in the hands of the power that be.

The political 'powers of the moment' often have vested interests in competition with the best practices of running various infrastructure facilities. This means there needs to be an isolation between the true professionals in charge of running critical infrastructures, such as most specifically these dams that affect EVERY single citizen, and the political masters of the day and their handmaidens.

There is far too much at stake, as seen this fall, to leave these CRITICAL decisions in the hands of come and go with the wind political hacks, with agendas for their own masters and little conceptions of what they actions can cause.

We see a major league, game changing, case in point here.