Yingluck Told To Oust Banharn's Party For Failures To Fight Floods

[rogerdee123]

Not even to mention that

those who's harvest got reaped will find much better prices since

so many OTHER harvests were lost and so reduced stock always means higher prices.

Uncle Chewy on the attack!

Go for it Kuhn Chuvit!

Unfortunately, a large portion of the harvest was lost as 35 warehouses were flooded. Sorry, but your conspiracy theory that those who harvested are in for windfall profits is just that a farang fabrication.

The rice industry will bounce back by next harvest in 2 months. Hardly a crisis.

I suggest you go and read what the Thai Rice Exporters Assoc. has to say;

.Strong output from the northern provinces is likely to offset the flood-damaged rice crop, easing fears that Thailand could face a supply shortfall later this year.According to Korbsook Iamsuri, the president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, output of both fragrant Hom Mali paddy and white paddy rice harvested in the Northeast is expected to rise at least 20% from the previous season.The growth was attributed to proper water and high paddy prices set by the rice pledging programme that began earlier this month.The Northeast region, where 33 million rai have been used to plant the main rice crop, produced 11 million tonnes of paddy last year.Our preliminary reports show that rice productivity in the area will record a historic high," Mrs Korbsook said.This would overcome speculation that the country could suffer a rice shortage over the next two months due to many rice fields having been deluged.

http://www.thairiceexporters.or.th/Int%20news/News_2011/int_news_281011-1.html

People are too quick to paint things negatively. Yes, rice paddys were damaged, yes inventories were lost, but rice is one of those products that bounces back quickly after flooding.

As much as I regret it .... I have to agree with you on this one GK

[moe666]

I am suprised GK hasn't filled us in on all of the under table, backroom deals that are going on since he has an inside track with PTP.

[noitom]

They are always reshuffling, cracking down, overhauling, announcing 5 point this, 7 point that, but the reality is that their world is breaking down. The growing disease and contamination disaster has yet to really sink in what with all the debate on which district to flood and who is to blame for not flooding it or flooding it too much. They really have their heads in the sand on this whole thing. It's amazing that they've been able to seal off the international press, and that's why we see so little coverage of a monumental flood and medical humanitarian disaster. You have to give them credit. I don't know how they do it, but they've got the international press by the neck. The few stories that we see are merely patronizing them and their thing and not identifying major issues strongly, breakdowns, and exposures like the growing health crisis. Who will be reshuffled and blamed for that? When will they "crackdown" on looted, pirated medical supplies? What's going on with this medical disease thing? Are they doing anything on a scale relative to the damage? I hear they don't even have a suitable inventory of rubber gloves and essential first line medicines and sanitary supplies. I hear the doctors are running for the hills. It's every man for himself. As another poster observed, "round up the usual suspects?" Let's have a crackdown.

[animatic]

Not even to mention that

those who's harvest got reaped will find much better prices since

so many OTHER harvests were lost and so reduced stock always means higher prices.

Uncle Chewy on the attack!

Go for it Kuhn Chuvit!

Unfortunately, a large portion of the harvest was lost as 35 warehouses were flooded. Sorry, but your conspiracy theory that those who harvested are in for windfall profits is just that a farang fabrication.

The rice industry will bounce back by next harvest in 2 months. Hardly a crisis.

I suggest you go and read what the Thai Rice Exporters Assoc. has to say;

.Strong output from the northern provinces is likely to offset the flood-damaged rice crop, easing fears that Thailand could face a supply shortfall later this year.According to Korbsook Iamsuri, the president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, output of both fragrant Hom Mali paddy and white paddy rice harvested in the Northeast is expected to rise at least 20% from the previous season.The growth was attributed to proper water and high paddy prices set by the rice pledging programme that began earlier this month.The Northeast region, where 33 million rai have been used to plant the main rice crop, produced 11 million tonnes of paddy last year.Our preliminary reports show that rice productivity in the area will record a historic high," Mrs Korbsook said.This would overcome speculation that the country could suffer a rice shortage over the next two months due to many rice fields having been deluged.

http://www.thairicee...s_281011-1.html

People are too quick to paint things negatively. Yes, rice paddys were damaged, yes inventories were lost, but rice is one of those products that bounces back quickly after flooding.

As much as I regret it .... I have to agree with you on this one GK

Unless you consider they are looking at immediate profits, from THIS harvest, and look at future harvests as just that. future. This is not about the global thailand harvest total numbers, but vested interests worrying about THEIR profits now, not the total market place. This quote above is looking longer term. Any reduction in overall harvest means higher prices. and the types of rice harvested will have an effect too, If mostly Jasmine rice is lost, and one group has much more saved, Jasmine rice prices rise and they win.

[animatic]

Unfortunately, a large portion of the harvest was lost as 35 warehouses were flooded. Sorry, but your conspiracy theory that those who harvested are in for windfall profits is just that a farang fabrication.

The rice industry will bounce back by next harvest in 2 months. Hardly a crisis.

... end removed

This makes me wonder how the 'rice pledging' scheme works. If a farmer pledged his crop and delivered, he should get the price. Whatever happened after delivery is not his problem

If they protect their crop and deliver more, they win.

If others lose theirs and they don't, they win.

If their 'type of rice' is more in their hands than others hands, they win, even if the global rice market of all types is up, one type down means higher prices in THAT types segment.

But with rice pledging so far out of whack with market prices, just having more to pledge is a win. This was this seasons post election golden goose, and all the rice mafia wanted their biggest personal piece of the pledging pie. Anyone seriously believe that different segments of the rice mafia don't actively fight with other groups in the rice mafia? They are in competition with each other and why would we assume they all fight fair?

Edited November 13, 2011 by animatic

[jayjayjayjay]

Again you can oust whoever you like. The fundamental problem is you still have to find ways to stop 17billion cubic meter monster that opts to visit the Chao Phraya for 7 days or less at least once in 50 years. At least once in 2,500 years this monster will bring its partner of equal size. That makes both of them to be as big as 34billion cubic meter, moving to down stream of Chao Phraya in 7 days.

Theoretically, it is difficult to ensure you can beat all these monsters. Just chose the reasonable size between these two figures. The standard size that most of the cities in the world use is the one that has return frequency at least once in 200 years. I would say for Chao Phraya its intensity is about 20billion cubic meter in 7 days.

But you can keel haul those that make those visits needlessly worse for the majority of people.

Such wise words from the ultimate armchair critic.

[animatic]

Again you can oust whoever you like. The fundamental problem is you still have to find ways to stop 17billion cubic meter monster that opts to visit the Chao Phraya for 7 days or less at least once in 50 years. At least once in 2,500 years this monster will bring its partner of equal size. That makes both of them to be as big as 34billion cubic meter, moving to down stream of Chao Phraya in 7 days.

Theoretically, it is difficult to ensure you can beat all these monsters. Just chose the reasonable size between these two figures. The standard size that most of the cities in the world use is the one that has return frequency at least once in 200 years. I would say for Chao Phraya its intensity is about 20billion cubic meter in 7 days.

But you can keel haul those that make those visits needlessly worse for the majority of people.

Such wise words from the ultimate armchair critic.

Not having the authority to make the needed changes

doesn't mean I can't see the problem clearly.

Criticizing the messenger doesn't make your message stronger,

it just indicates you likely don't have one...

Edited November 13, 2011 by animatic

[Payboy]

The scheme kicked off only in October and in the first week it registered only 6 odd thousand farmers.

More likely 6000 odd middlemen and that's a lot. Need to import some rice from Cambodia to meet the pledge.

[animatic]

The scheme kicked off only in October and in the first week it registered only 6 odd thousand farmers.

More likely 6000 odd middlemen and that's a lot. Need to import some rice from Cambodia to meet the pledge.

The orders are already placed, no doubt.

Buy it low

and sell it high

and pull the wool

over their eyes.

Edited November 13, 2011 by animatic

[rogerdee123]

Again you can oust whoever you like. The fundamental problem is you still have to find ways to stop 17billion cubic meter monster that opts to visit the Chao Phraya for 7 days or less at least once in 50 years. At least once in 2,500 years this monster will bring its partner of equal size. That makes both of them to be as big as 34billion cubic meter, moving to down stream of Chao Phraya in 7 days.

Theoretically, it is difficult to ensure you can beat all these monsters. Just chose the reasonable size between these two figures. The standard size that most of the cities in the world use is the one that has return frequency at least once in 200 years. I would say for Chao Phraya its intensity is about 20billion cubic meter in 7 days.

But you can keel haul those that make those visits needlessly worse for the majority of people.

Such wise words from the ultimate armchair critic.

Not having the authority to make the needed changes

doesn't mean I can't see the problem clearly.

Criticizing the messenger doesn't make your message stronger,

it just indicates you likely don't have one...

animatic's points make a lot of sense to me.

[geriatrickid]

I am suprised GK hasn't filled us in on all of the under table, backroom deals that are going on since he has an inside track with PTP.

LOL. The "PTP" sources I have were also "Democrat" sources and also "military junta": sources. Thailand has some similiarities to the west in that there is a central core of public officials that remain in positions no matter what the government is. It's sort of like the ugly girl that changes dresses. The dress might look fabulous, but it is still being worn by the ugly girl. Governments in Thailand only change the top officials. Please refer to "Yes, Minister" the old telly series for more details.

In the case of the rice exports, I read the news feeds from the Rice Exporters Association. Their info has tended to be more accurate than anything the government has put out, both PTP and Democrat. In Thailand, go to the source for a more accurate indication.

[geriatrickid]

Also buried in the Rice Exporters website are some articles on the threat to Thailand's profitable market niche of Jasmine rice, There is more concern raised about the USA's entry into the jasmine rice market, than the flood damage. The USA is one of the world's largest rice exporters with approx. 12% of the market. Thailand is number 1 with 28% with Vietanam and India alternate 2nd place. Unlike India, Thailand hasn't artificially boosted export prices to subsidize internal prices, so it has had a bit of a market advantage. However, the Americans with their reliance on efficient crop harvesting and strategy have set their sights on the most profitable market niches which have historically been the domain of Thailand. Both Vietnam and India get hit every so often with monsoon flood damage too, so Thailand's floods aren't that disruptive to market share in the sense that one year its India that gets kicked in the nads, the next year its Vietnam and so on.

Interesting reading. I had forgotten how big the US rice sector was. Even more crazy is that states like Arkansas, Texas and Louisiana are big rice growers. It's a bit of shocker, sort of as if Isan was a fish farm hub. I was also unaware that the rice market in Thailand has a built in surplus to account for losses due to natural disasters. It makes sense, but I suppose I was guilty of western arrogance in not considering that the Thais who have been dominant in this sector know the rice market.