Land Prices In Flood Zones To Be Hit: Thailand

[webfact]

HOUSING MARKET

Prices in flood zones to be hit

SOMLUCK SRIMALEE

THE NATION

Land prices in flooded areas show signs of slumping 20-30 per cent and staying there for two or three years before returning to normal, according to Colliers International (Thailand) Co.

Patima Jirapate, managing director of the real-estate agency, said in a group interview yesterday that the new metropolitan master plan would not be amended to add more floodways because it already passed a public hearing last month before the flood invaded inner Bangkok.

The plan, which will now go into effect next year, already includes a third floodway on Rama II Road in Bang Khuntien district.

The existing two floodways - one for eastern Bangkok in Klong Sam Wa and Min Buri districts and one for western Bangkok in Bang Khae and Taling Chan - are carryovers from the previous city plan.

After the flood this year, home-owners will not move to other locations but they may buy a second home to support themselves when faced with an unexpected situation, he said.

Residences priced between Bt1 million and Bt10 million continue to be in demand as a second home, especially those close to mass-transit lines such as the Skytrain and subway or in nearby cities such as Hua Hin and Pattaya.

Retail businesses will continue to grow but they will change their business models, Patima said. They will adopt the smaller scale of community shopping centres. They will separate their distribution centres and have more than one because they were hit hard when the flood incapacitated their sole centre.

They will also modify their logistics systems.

Industrial estates have suffered tremendously from this flood to the tune of more than Bt300 billion. They will develop barriers to protect their properties from inundation and also set up back-up production facilities, warehouses and logistics systems to support manufacturing when faced with a flood or other natural disaster, Patima said.

-- The Nation 2011-11-15

[wordchild]

I would think that houses in areas that have been badly flooded would be pretty much unsellable whatever the price!

[zorro1]

Its logical. The flip side is unaffected land will increase in value

[coldmike]

Ordinarily true... in situatons where floods were results of natural causes, not political decisions (or indecisions)

[lazygourmet]

At least, we will not be annoyed anymore -for the next few years- by weekly buying proposals from agents and home brokers.

[renaissanc]

The converse will hopefully also be true for areas that don't flood, such as Tung Kru, if we escape flooding. We are south of the city and in a corner away from the flooding.

Anyone buying a second-hand car will have to be wary about whether it was flooded and then repaired.

[Sunderland]

We have a house in an area of Bangbuathong that had never flooded before. The water has come down to 1 metre now on the streets of the village after being submerged in over 2 metres of floodwater for the past 4 weeks. We will eventually go back and start the cleaning process. As it's built on a large plot we can be optimistic about selling (as we had planned to do a few months back), but we don't envisage there being much interest for at least 2-3 years.

The flooding was in no way natural. The water was deliberately redirected across western Nonthaburi. The government can stuff their 5,000 baht up their own behinds.

Edited November 15, 2011 by Sunderland

[noitom]

The real estate in Thailand is horribly over valued. There is no basis for the pre-flood prices let alone the after flood. The infrastructure or lack thereof is reason enough. Not counting all the other stuff. Political uncertainty, social unrest and turmoil, lack of law and administration, absence of recourse, historical failure to honor agreements, shoddy construction and corner cutting, no zoning, pollution, geographical risk, civil unrest and killing in the south..on and on. If you get an offer for a mistake that you made some years ago - take it!! It's a swamp land that will be overcome by all of the above. The question is not if but when. It's easy to find comparisons of other great real estate value in many parts of the world that will make Thailand look like the worst deal around and one you should run from as fast as you can run.

[wxyz]

“I have some prime swampland in Bangkok to sell you”

“I have some prime swampland in Florida to sell you” is a slang expression used to poke fun at the gullibility of a person.

[Hooters]

It's easy to find comparisons of other great real estate value in many parts of the world that will make Thailand look like the worst deal around and one you should run from as fast as you can run.

.

such as?

[BrynnerYee]

i think land and location makes the drop a good long term investment.

This assumes the price drop includes a house that has been fixed from any flood damage, but that's speculation as the whole article really was given it's lack of detail.....then again, notice the name of the paper and who they are quoting.

The only thing that seems for sure for a normal scenario in a normal location (country) is the drop in sales prices....we can't even be sure of that give TiT....but odds are if someone had the time, inclination, and money, they could find someone willing to sell at "fire sale prices" of 50% or so given the flood (pun intended). Then wait 3+ YEARS and you make a good profit.....the risk is you gamble nothing else bad happens and everything bad seems to be hitting LOS in a string for over the last 10+ years.

I would think that houses in areas that have been badly flooded would be pretty much unsellable whatever the price!

[Arkady]

We have a house in an area of Bangbuathong that had never flooded before. The water has come down to 1 metre now on the streets of the village after being submerged in over 2 metres of floodwater for the past 4 weeks. We will eventually go back and start the cleaning process. As it's built on a large plot we can be optimistic about selling (as we had planned to do a few months back), but we don't envisage there being much interest for at least 2-3 years.

The flooding was in no way natural. The water was deliberately redirected across western Nonthaburi. The government can stuff their 5,000 baht up their own behinds.

Maybe you're right. Thai memories are quite short and if nothing more bad happens there in the next three years, prices will probably recover. It could be the inner city next time anyway, if the red shirts figure they can cut their Shinawatra apron strings and take over completely. I would think that the next couple years will be better for condo sales vs houses, as house prices in dry areas will go up and there aren't many affordable dry areas with land available for housing in Bangkok. No one wants the heart break of leveraging all family members to the hilt to buy a first home and finding it an unsalable sodden mess of sewage and mould a year later, as so many have done.

[Hooters]

Wouldn't surprise if Thais put their sale prices UP

[rgs2001uk]

Wouldn't surprise if Thais put their sale prices UP

Can you blame them?

I would imagine right now there are estate agents updating there databases, dreading being asked, did this area flood?

Strange, some of the most expensive real estate in the city is located right next to the river.

[thaiwanderer]

Half a year ago, I was naive enough to be seriously considering and looking for land on a waterway in Chachoengsao.

Boy, was I in Ga Ga Land and not thinking.

But this article ... "Duh, do you think so?"

Of course this contrived and intentional direction of the water has had a strong impact on PERCEIVED land values.

Do you think it was an accident?

INSIDER information is priceless.

Advance knowledge of the PMs insidious water management plan was certainly shared with cronies and other gang members MONTHS in advance.

Do you really think they just sat there and ignored the monsoon rains in the North?

NO WAY!

Taksin & gang members saw a business opportunity and took it.

Do NOT be misled by the staged appearance and situation of apparent:

• confusion
• contradiction
• misinformation
• disinformation
• vacillation
• incompetence
• crying

Everything went according to plan and everything continues to go according to plan.

Scams are always based on making YOU think you are smarter than the person running the scam.

Drastic changes make big opportunities to exploit price differentials.

Manipulation makes money.

It's an ancient tactic of the big money boys.

And the only reason there is a rift between guys cut from the same cloth -- SONDHI and TAKSIN -- is because Sondhi did NOT get the insider info about a FOREX scam and Thai Baht manipulation that Taksin ran a number of years ago.

So artificial manipulation of apparently "uncontrollable" forces has long been a tool in the shed of these rich and heartless people.

Manipulation and exploitation of land prices and the mass purchase of large areas of land is CERTAINLY part of the plan.

DO NOT SELL!

Demand effective flood management systems and policies.

Take water management 100% out of the hands of politicians.

Put water management 100% in the hands of water management experts and we can get another good century of use out of our flooded areas.

DO NOT LET THE RICH BUY UP ALL THE REAL ESTATE CHEAP.

Think. Vote, Fight back. Resist. Demand change.

DON'T SELL.

I know that's hard when a class war has been waged against you but we must try.

United we stand and are strong.

Divided ... well we are screwed.

Do I sense some bitterness?

While you aren't entirely off target regarding politics, the greater part of the water (mis-)management precipitating the floods cannot be blamed on the current administration.

What change do you hope for with TV members' voting rights or lack thereof?

[noitom]

It's easy to find comparisons of other great real estate value in many parts of the world that will make Thailand look like the worst deal around and one you should run from as fast as you can run.

.

such as?

Toronto, Chicago, Denver, St. Louis, Vancouver, Maine, Vermont, Outside Montreal, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Arizona, Florida, for example.

[Hooters]

It's easy to find comparisons of other great real estate value in many parts of the world that will make Thailand look like the worst deal around and one you should run from as fast as you can run.

.

such as?

Toronto, Chicago, Denver, St. Louis, Vancouver, Maine, Vermont, Outside Montreal, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Arizona, Florida, for example.

USA will take 15 years to recover from the sub prime fiasco. Good luck with that

[culicine]

Wouldn't surprise if Thais put their sale prices UP

Can you blame them?

I would imagine right now there are estate agents updating there databases, dreading being asked, did this area flood?

Strange, some of the most expensive real estate in the city is located right next to the river.

There's quite a difference between locations that flood once every 50 years compared to those that flood every few years - if it weren't for northern parts of BKK taking a bigger hit through big bags and other blockages, inner BKK would likely have flooded as well. Given how extensive flooding was, I don;t see a huge impact on house / land prices, certainly not in the long term. After a few years people will have largely forgotten about it - the problem is that the government will as well, and will forget to maintain their canal system to improve drainage etc...

1995 had a massive flood too, but what constructive was done after that?

[thaiwanderer]

1995 had a massive flood too, but what constructive was done after that?

Some might draw a line between that and the 1997 crisis.

[travelmann]

Memory is short economics will dictate people will buy there as its "cheap" yet ignore the reason why.

Best piece of advice i got was always buy land on a slope.

[travelmann]

Wouldn't surprise if Thais put their sale prices UP

Can you blame them?

I would imagine right now there are estate agents updating there databases, dreading being asked, did this area flood?

Strange, some of the most expensive real estate in the city is located right next to the river.

And still it doesnt flood!!

[biplanebluey]

Memory is short economics will dictate people will buy there as its "cheap" yet ignore the reason why.

Best piece of advice i got was always buy land on a slope.

Buy house on flat----house get flooded. Buy house on slope-----House get flooded and slide down slope--------GOOD THINKING

[biplanebluey]

Memory is short economics will dictate people will buy there as its "cheap" yet ignore the reason why.

Best piece of advice i got was always buy land on a slope.

Buy house on flat----house get flooded. Buy house on slope-----House get flooded and slide down slope--------GOOD THINKING

[biplanebluey]

Memory is short economics will dictate people will buy there as its "cheap" yet ignore the reason why.

Best piece of advice i got was always buy land on a slope.

Buy house on flat----house get flooded. Buy house on slope-----House get flooded and slide down slope--------GOOD THINKING

[trogers]

Wouldn't surprise if Thais put their sale prices UP

Can you blame them?

I would imagine right now there are estate agents updating there databases, dreading being asked, did this area flood?

Strange, some of the most expensive real estate in the city is located right next to the river.

And still it doesnt flood!!

A building on stilts in the middle of a lake will not flood, but its occupants are still marooned and surrounded by water...

[janverbeem]

I thought land with a pond always fetched higher prices

[trogers]

I thought land with a pond always fetched higher prices

I think you meant land on islands....