Honeymoon Period Over for Kamala Harris Polls Show Tight Race

[churchill]

'With the flood waters still washing through Thailand, assessments of their impact on the economy are steadily becoming more gloomy. On Thursday, Barclays Capital raised its estimates of the cost to 3-4 per cent of GDP from 2-3 per cent.

Down go forecasts for GDP growth for this year and next, and for export-oriented production of electronics, vehicles and food. The only silver lining is that the disaster could prompt the central bank to cut interest rates, possibly as soon as its next meeting on November 30.'

continued ..

http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2011/11/17/thailand-flood-impact-worse-than-feared/?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed#axzz1dxO5aZt5

[E1717007]

i do expect another downgrade after the Japanese finished inspecting their damaged equipment

[wordchild]

II must say this is my perspective, as a long term investor in Thailand over many years i am trying to control my pessimism. But, from what i see and hear these floods have dealt a fair body blow to the Thai economy. In my opinion much worse than any of the periods of yellow/red unrest over the last few years.

What worries me most is not the short term hit to GDP, though i am sure it will be much worse (and longer lasting) than current expectations, but it is the real damage that has been done to the structure of inward investment into this country. Thailand has been the big winner in SE Asia from the exporting of Japanese manufacturers capital to lower cost centres outside Japan. Whilst this tap cannot just be turned off, and, in the short term , there will be a mini surge of capital (incl insurance claims) for the re-building, in the medium long term ,my feeling (based, in part, on recent contact with some of these companies), is that "diversification of supply chain risk" is the new buzz phrase.And what the Japs do, they do together. Increasingly we will see other SE Asian countries favoured for significant new investment and little by little a move away from Thailand . This ,together with a growing feeling i have had that Thailand is the big relative economic loser, from ASEAN 2015 (not that the Thais see it like that!) and also the likelihood of increased wasteful populist expenditure from this government combine to make me feel more negative than i have been for a very long time. In the late 90,s i felt strongly that Thailand was sleep walking into a disaster and, i must say i have similar feelings now.

Edited November 17, 2011 by wordchild

[bob4you]

When is it going to effect the value of the Baht vs other currencies?

[Gonsalviz]

When is it going to effect the value of the Baht vs other currencies?

Can't say if it is just a spike or not but if not, it already is affecting the Baht.

[chiangmaibruce]

<snip>What worries me most is not the short term hit to GDP, though i am sure it will be much worse (and longer lasting) than current expectations, but it is the real damage that has been done to the structure of inward investment into this country. <snip>

+1

A big variable will be the response by the Thai Government in the aftermath of this disaster. If they provide firm indications that lessons have been learnt, provide reasonable compensation, and focus their energies on a thoughtfully planned program of re-building plus a realistic package of measures to minimise the impact of future floods .... then most foreign investors will probably stick around.

But if they continue on the same merry path they are on now (corruption + nepotism + infighting + ad hockery + utter disorganisation), as is more likely, then many will indeed be thinking along the lines of staged withdrawal.