More MRT Changes

[ratcatcher]

Since Bangkok governor Apirak announced ,some months ago, that the city would attempt to complete the Skytrain to Taksin road, our CEO PM , in order to save face, has been spouting about all the rail construction that's going to take place in Bangkok. Yet not a single concrete rail tie nor a length of steel rail has been laid down past Saphan Taksin station as of this date. News releases are cheap theatrics and frankly a load of B.S.

All these numbers (billions of baht) being bandied about sound very ambitious, but are they realistic?

They could not even build the skytrain and subway to be compatible so that you could travel from On Nut to Hualampong without changing tickets. On the London Underground system you can travel anywhere on one ticket I believe.

So I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for construction to begin in the very near future.

The skytrain guideway runs from Saphan Taksin to Petkasem Road but no comments from the PM as to when the tens of thousands of suffering commuters using cars and crammed into buses and onto antiquated river ferry boats will get any relief from their travel nightmare. And people wonder why others criticize Thailand. They just can't get their shit together as they say.

Let's think about the Night Safari and other novelties, far more fun!

[Crossy]

They could not even build the skytrain and subway to be compatible so that you could travel from On Nut to Hualampong without changing tickets. On the London Underground system you can travel anywhere on one ticket I believe.

It's all fun isn't it? Skytrain are upgrading to a smart card system next year (LTA from Singapore got the job). The cards will be compatible with the cards used by the metro.

BUT.

As there is no revenue sharing agreement or clearing house in the contract the cards will not be inter-usable at the start, with luck this will change sooner rather than later.

You are correct about London, one (Oyster) card gets you on all LTA transport systems (buses and the tube). HongKong has gone one step further with Octopus (seems to be a fixation with calling these things afer sea creatures). The Octopus card works on the MTR, KCR, Buses and ferries, also you can use it in photo booths and at the 7-eleven for small purchases (cigs. sweets etc.).

It should be noted that both these systems have been evolving over at least ten years, no instant fix. Take it a step at a time and get it right. fat chance, TiT

[andyfletch]

In the Nation today:

Transport bidding to be delayed

Published on December 02, 2005

The Transport Ministry said yesterday it expected to select contractors for its Bt550-billion Bangkok mass-transit projects in June, instead of early next year as previously planned.

Transport Minister Pongsak Ruktapongpisal told reporters that the selection process could encounter some delays, as the government plans to add more routes to the mass-transit system.

The revised plan followed the ministry’s meeting with Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who wants to expand the rail network in response to requests from many Bangkok residents, Pongsak said.

The ministry will add three routes to the initial four in the first phase of the construction, he added.

“However, our budget remains the same at Bt550 billion, as costs of the expanded network won’t exceed our initial budget.”

He said bidding for the project would be open to foreign companies.

“Foreign companies can propose to build the whole transit system, or only selected routes,” he said.

Pongsak also expects to finalise major details of the revised plan in mid-December.

Thaksin announced on Wednesday that the government had now decided to open bidding for 10 mass-transit routes, up from the four which Pongsak had mentioned earlier.

Sources explained that the 10 routes which the PM described were actually the original seven routes which former transport minister Suriya had planned.

“It’s the seven routes but the premier has rearranged them into 10 routes,” said the source, who is close to Deputy Prime Minister Suriya Jungrungreangkit.

A source from Alstom Thailand said the company was interested in participating in the bidding and had already entered into partnerships for this purpose, including with Japanese firm Mitsui.

However, following the government’s revision of the mass-transit projects, France-based Alstom said it would have to wait and see how the terms of reference are finally settled before it can draw up its own plans.

A source from Mitsui said the company continued to pay attention to the mass-transit projects, but was waiting for greater clarity from the government.

Watcharapong Thongrung

The Nation

"A source from Mitsui said the company continued to pay attention to the mass-transit projects, but was waiting for greater clarity from the government."

And doesn't that just say it all - clear as mud!!!!!!

[Jai Dee]

TRANSPORT MINISTRY WILL AUTHORIZE WINNING COMPANY TO DECIDE ON TRAIN ROUTES

Transport Minister Phongsak Raktaphongphaisarn (พงษ์ศักดิ์ รักตพงษ์ไพศาล) will allow the winning company in the bid for the 10 electric train lines to make changes to the train routes, provided that the budget remained at 550 billion baht.

Mr. Phongsak said the government has set the construction framework according to the old plan, where the electric trains would cover the Bangkok area as well as parts of neighboring provinces. The winning company would be allowed to make appropriate changes to the routing, under the same budget.

3 new lines have been added from the original 7 planned for construction, including one from Ladphrao (ลาดพร้าว) through Srinakharin (ศรีนครินทร์) to Samrong (สำโรง), one from Pakkred (ปากเกร็ด) through Jaengwatthana & Raminthra (แจ้งวัฒนะ & รามอินทรา) to Meenburi (มีนบุรี), and one from Meenburi to Bangkapi (บางกะปิ).

Tendering will be made next year in February and the contract signed in June, after which construction would immediately begin under a 550 billion baht budget.

Source: thaisnews.com ประจำวันศุกร์ที่ 2 ธันวาคม 2548

[cclub75]

They build 23km of Skytrain for 54 bil baht - that works out to more than 2 bil per km, and that was over the ground, and not counting inflation. It also took 7 years for 23 km.

So, 3 km a year, 2 bil per km, we get what?

361km planned divided by 3 - 120 years, and 361x2 - 720 billion.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You forgot one very important point.... INFLATION !

So actually, it would cost much more, if you use the first skytrain cost to compare.

Anyway, let's summarize.

GDP of Thailand in 2004 : 3671 billions THB...

http://www.bot.or.th/bothomepage/databank/...y/Thai_KeyE.asp

So, how could they finance a total investment of 1/6 of the annual GDP ?

At minimum, because we agree that the "figure" of 550 billions is way underestimated...

It's would be like the US would launch an investment of 2 trillons USD !

It's completly delirious. These guys are not serious, or they drink too much mak mak.

Anyway, the whole story about "mega project" is delirious since the begining. It's only a toy for children that Thaksin use in front of people, from time to time.

The perimeter of the "train, sky train, underground" whatever project changes EVERY WEEK, and has a different scale in the mouth of different ministers or TRT politicians.

Where is the opposition ? Where are the experts ? Where are the people to simlply say to Thaksin "stop" ?

[andyfletch]

From 2bangkok today: The notes make for intersting reading !!!!!!

List of 10 new lines with international bidding - translated and summarized by Wisarut Bholsithi from Thai News Agency, December 1, 2005

The government has asked for 10 lines of mass transit system with a price tag of 550 billion baht even though the same amount of budget is for just seven lines.

The extra three lines are

1) Old Yellow Line - Bang Kapi - Sri Nakharin - Samrong [should add Lad Phrao section]

2) New Yellow Line - Nawamin - Kaset - Bangkhen Station - Ngam Wongwan - Khae Rai with a branch line from Patthamawikorn to Km 8

3) Pink Monorail - Chaeng Watthana - Ram Indra - Minburi - Suwinthawongse

The 1st phase will consist of 4 lines with a price tag of 194.276 billion baht and this will have to be a turnkey project.

Notes: Nowadays, few people feel convinced with PM Thaksin's plans on megaprojects after a series of shenanigans with mass transit plans by Transport Minister Pheng along with impulsive and continuing changes of the plan by PM Thaksin.

Even worse, the plan to borrow 80 billion baht to solve the cash flow problems due to the pet projects of the PM and his cronies has effectively ruined the confidence that the government has any cash to deal with the megaprojects at all...

The cut of Lad Phrao - Bang Kapi Section (underground) instead of a scaled-down version to elevated tracks would only alienate those who live along Lad Phrao Road to such extend to jeopardize the election of TRT MPs.

Pink Monorail without going to Muangthong Thani will never work. Nobody want to make a transfer from the gate of Muang Thong Thani to go into IMPACT.

[DJ Pat]

Believe that when I see it!

[Crossy]

GDP of Thailand in 2004 : 3671 billions THB...

http://www.bot.or.th/bothomepage/databank/...y/Thai_KeyE.asp

This site http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/th.html has Thailand's GDP for 2004 as $524.8 billion (about 21,000 billion Baht) considerably more than the site you reference. Makes spending 550 billion more acceptable (about 2.6% of GDP).

Doesn't make it any more likely to get built though

[andyfletch]

More from The Nation today: Even OTP seem to think its a non-starter!!!

Mass-transit plan ‘made for collusion’

Published on December 06, 2005

Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s plan to open the bidding for 10 mass-transit routes simultaneously could limit competition and might result in collusion by contractors, said an official from the Office of Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning.

Sources said that considering the total budget of Bt550 billion, it is difficult for a single contractor to shoulder the entire risk especially in this case, where the government might expect the contractor to be responsible for seeking funding to implement the project.

There is only a handful electric-train manufacturers in the world, namely Siemens, Alstom and Bombardier, which would have to join hands with other international suppliers and local contractors. Even though the government will open all the 10 routes for bidding, it is more likely that each firm will choose only those routes that they think are more economical and may collude to win the contracts.

One official, who asked to remain anonymous, said: “The positive aspect of opening 10 routes simultaneously is faster implementation. But in reality it is not feasible for Bangkok to absorb the construction of all routes at the same time as it will make for a traffic nightmare.

“After receiving the bids, the government may have to divide the construction into phases by choosing the ones that already have design blueprints or the routes that are the most economical, to be implemented first.”

He said the government should set up a committee to fairly and transparently evaluate the bidding proposals and to lay down rules considering every route on the same basis, such as how to weigh each criterion – construction cost, technical considerations, finance, construction time and other special conditions.

Clarity in the terms and conditions is important to ensure fairness and avoid collusion, said the official.

For instance, if the government places more emphasis on construction cost and time, Alstrom, which has the technology to build cheaper and faster mass-transit systems, might be in an advantageous position. However, if the condition is that the new lines must be compatible with the existing BTS and MRT systems, then Siemens might have the edge, he said.

So far, design blueprints have only been completed for the Blue Line from Bang Sue to Ta Pra and Hua Lamphong to Bang Khae, and for Purple Line from Bang Yai to Bang Sue, he said. Design studies and cost evaluations still had to be carried out for the other lines.

If there is collusion in the bidding, the construction cost could go up and exceed the budget, said the official.

Watcharapong Thongrung

The Nation

[cclub75]

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/th.html has Thailand's GDP for 2004 as $524.8 billion (about 21,000 billion Baht) considerably more than the site you reference. Makes spending 550 billion more acceptable (about 2.6% of GDP).

Whatch out... the CIA uses "GDP purchasing power parity" (PPP)... This mesurement is different from the raw GDP, calculated either in USD or THB.

The figures I took were the ones from the BOT = Bank of Thailand.

But i forgot to mention that BOT shows GDP "with 1998 prices" (constant prices).

It means, we have to add inflation since 1998 to get a proper figure, at actual value.

[andyfletch]

From Business Day newspaper today. Note the hoary old chestnut of barter to pay for the project has raised its head again. Stupid, stupid,stupid!!!!!!

Also inconsistencies like " we welcome bidders in March/April" " the bid process will take about 6 months, so a contract can be signed in June" does not give me a warm fuzzy feeling in the morning - March - June 6 months??? I don't think so........... humbug

Thailand mulls single bidder for mass transit

Agencies

Thailand is considering awarding Bangkok's 550 billion baht (13.75 billion dollars) 10-line mass transit project to a single bidder when it calls for proposals early next year, government officials have said.

The 10 new routes are meant to complement three existing lines in the traffic-congested capital that are operated by two companies -- one government owned and the other private.

“A single company operating the (new 10-line) system would make the project more economical and be easier to operate,“ Thirdsak Setthamanop, deputy permanent secretary for transport, said.

Details about the routes for the new lines and their expected operation dates have not been finalised.

The opposition has criticised the proposal, saying a single bidder could lead to corruption of business alliances, and has pointed to graft allegations surrounding construction of Bangkok's new international airport.

Concerns have also been raised over the funding for the project, particularly given that Thailand's current account surplus fell 93 percent year-on-year in October.

Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, however, said Saturday that barter trade such as rubber could be used to finance the project.

The government has also said that the new lines will help reduce soaring oil bills. Oil imports totalled 1.82 billion dollars in October, up 64 percent year-on-year, according to the trade ministry.

Bangkok's existing mass transit system has three lines – two above ground, and one underground – totalling 75 kilometres (47 miles) of tracks. Together they carry almost 500,000 passengers each day.

But the lines use different ticketing systems, meaning commuters lack an integrated transport and payment system common in cities such as Hong Kong.

The new project will be built by a private contractor and operated by a government agency but it is unclear what the final ownership structure will be.

The government will invite international bidders to participate and will brief foreign diplomats about the plan on December 15, Thirdsak said.

Germany's Siemens, Alstom of France and several companies from South Korea and China have expressed an interested in the project.

“We will welcome proposals from bidders some time during March and April,“ Thirdsak said. The selection process will take about six months to finish so that we will be able to sign the contracts in June.“

Thai government spokesman Surapong Suebwonglee said Friday that awarding the contract to only one bidder would help to prevent bidders joining together to collude and increase the bid price.

Only companies with the proven ability to cover the entire project could enter the bidding so that the government gets the best proposal for the project, Surapong told reporters.

Government transport officials will meet interested bidders in January before studying the details of the routes and investment proposals, he added.

[Jai Dee]

TRANSPORT MINISTER WILL SUBMIT DETAILS ON CONSTRUCTION OF ELECTRIC TRAIN ROUTES TO THE PM TODAY

Transport Minister Pongsak Raktapongpaisal (พงษ์ศักดิ์ รักตพงศ์ไพศาล) prepares to submit details of construction plans for 10 electric train routs to the Prime Minister today, as the information will be used to inform foreign ambassadors.

Mr. Pongsak revealed that he will submit all details regarding construction of 10 electric train routes to Prime Minister Thaksin Shinnawat (ทักษิณ ชินวัตร) today, so that the Prime Minister can use the information to notify foreign ambassadors, who will then inform private companies in their countries and persuade them to come to invest in the project. He said that the government expects that interested firms will submit details and their opinion on the construction plan to the Transport Ministry within January 20, 2006.

Meanwhile, deputy permanent secretary of the transport Ministry Terdsak Satemanop (เทิดศักดิ์ เศรษฐมานพ) said as a president of the committee reviewing the construction plan that after attracting foreign investors to invest in the project, the bidding process is expected to start by the end of February. Then, the Ministry will select successful bidders within the following few months, and the construction of the project is expected to begin in July.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 08 December 2005

[andyfletch]

From 2bangkok today:

Flip-flopping mass transit plans

- translated and summarized by Wisarut Bholsithi from December 9, 2005

Bangkok Biznews, December 8, 2005: Even though Transport Minister Pheng has grudgingly accepted the 10 lines initiated by Suriya and Sudarat, he has still not specified whether the section from Bang Kapi to Minburi will be the extension of the Orange line or the new Brown Line [9.5 km 5 stations from Bang Kapi to Suwinthawongse (Minburi) via Sukhaphiban 3 Road]. Minister Pheng said he is going to deliver the data to diplomats during the meetings on December 14.

Than Setthakij, December 8-10, 2005 and Manager Weekly, December 4-10, 2005: The flip-flop plan of Transport Minister Pheng has effectively deferred both foreign investors and local real estate owners and contractors from investing in this megaproject. For the media, they say it would be very lucky for TRT to complete just 1-2 lines of the mass transit project from 10 lines... For many, the term "Internal Bidding" is just a turnkey in the new disguise...

Than Setthakij, December 8-10, 2005: Wait until you can see who is the next MRTA Governor since Pheng and Suriya are going fight for the new MRTA puppet ... Pheng wants some new face to replace Governor Praphat while Suriya wants to keep Governor Praphat in the same old place instead of becoming MRTA Advisor.

[andyfletch]

The latest from The Nation:

Bickering slows new rail projects

Published on December 13, 2005

At a glance, tomorrow’s meeting between the Transport Ministry and ambassadors from countries interested in snapping up the mass-transit investment project shows it is ready to take off. However, frequent changes and complications, particularly reported rifts between key Cabinet members, could mean further delays for the long-stranded project.

There have been doubts about how tomorrow’s presentation will speed up the investment, but Transport Minister Pongsak Ruktapongpisal hopes companies interested in the project will come up with proposals next month on how the government should shape up the bidding terms of reference.

The companies will be asked to propose ways to finance the investment for maximum benefit in terms of financial management, design, maintenance, operations, modern look and environmental protection.

Pongsak is hopeful that construction can start in June. That optimism has been questioned.

“In just a month, how can they complete such a comprehensive proposal?” asked a source close to the issue. “None of the potential bidders wants to invest in the entire 10 routes and none shows interest in the proposed barter-trade financing concept.”

Companies reportedly interested in the project include France’s Alstom, Germany’s Siemens and Japan’s Mitsui Group.

Delays will displease not only Bangkok citizens, who are looking at the scheme as a means of alleviating the city’s worsening traffic problems, but also property developers, who cannot confidently predict that their projects will ever be close to public transport. Some who have bought up land and launched residential projects along the rail routes have complained that bookings have been cancelled in recent months because of changes to the master plan.

Pongsak is due to meet developers on Friday to answer their questions.

The mass-transit scheme was conceptualised in 2003 during the first Thaksin administration, when the government saw a solution to Bangkok’s traffic congestion as a means of cutting the huge cost of importing fuel.

A year later, the Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning Office came up with the rail master plan, consisting of seven lines with a combined length of 291 kilometres, and proposed an investment of Bt446.7 billion to build it. At first the proposed routes cutting across the Bangkok map were coloured light green, dark green, blue, purple, orange, dark red and light red.

Nothing moved until electioneering before the general election early this year. The Thai Rak Thai government beefed up its bid for re-election in Bangkok by whipping up its plans to lift the rail master plan off the drawing boards and into the streets.

After the government was formed and Suriya Jungrungreangkit managed to hang on as transport minister, two more lines were included in the master plan, yellow and pink. The combined length of the nine routes rose to 325 kilometres, and the cost escalated to Bt550 billion.

To the delight of Bangkokians, the investment project showed uninterrupted progress during Suriya’s reign. In an act of close cooperation, the Finance Ministry shouldered the burden of buying back the concessions of Bangkok Mass Transit System Plc (BTS) and Bangkok Metro Plc (BMCL) for the existing Skytrain and subway systems. A financing structure was proposed by the ministry, amid concerns from economists that importing materials and equipment for the project would see an escalating current-account deficit.

Then the purple line was chosen as the first to take off.

The first obstacle occurred when Transport Minister Suriya was subjected to House scrutiny over alleged corruption involving the procurement of bomb-scanning machines for Suvarnabhumi Airport. Despite there being no finding against him, Suriya was switched to the Industry Ministry, and Pongsak replaced him.

Immediately after taking the post in August, Pongsak focused his attention on the rail investment plan. The routes were entirely revised and the proposed buy-back of the BTS and BMCL concessions halted. Key members of the State Railway of Thailand, Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand and the Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning Office, all in charge of the plan, were removed.

Pongsak also proposed the inclusion of light-rail, monorail and speed-bus services rather than developing the entire network with heavy rail. It took him a month to backtrack to the old plan, following protests from voters who preferred what the government had been offering during the election campaign.

In October he proposed an auction for construction of parts of four lines, the dark red, light red, blue and purple, requiring about Bt212 billion. Pongsak also discussed the project with ambassadors from seven countries, including Russia, China, France and the UK. During this exchange, he proposed the barter-trade concept: your goods for our goods, with a minimal role played by cash.

The concept was not warmly welcomed, and Pongsak switched his thinking back to international bidding.

Then he tried for nearly two months to get Cabinet approval to formulate the bidding terms of reference. Nobody would comment on why he was putting such an important proposal on the Cabinet agenda. Early last month Suriya himself told Pongsak to first submit his proposal to the screening committee which he, Suriya, chaired. This spurred a rumour that Suriya wanted the job of overseeing the multi-billion project back.

But instead of getting Cabinet approval for the terms of reference, Pongsak broadened the master plan late last month by adding a dark-brown line. Shortly after that, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra announced that all 10 routes would be auctioned for construction at the same time.

Doubts persist over whether recent political developments will disrupt the plan. Since Suriya was named in rumours as one of the Thai Rak Thai rebels seeking to form a new political party, there has been talk of another Cabinet reshuffle, and people are beginning to wonder what will happen next to Bangkok’s grand 10-line rail master plan if Suriya returns to the Transport Ministry’s top office.

Watcharapong Thongrung

The Nation