Growth, But At What Cost To The Thai People?: Thai Opinion

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EDITORIAL

Growth, but at what cost to the Thai people?

The Nation

Thailand is projected to rise in the world economic rankings in the next four decades, but will it be worth it if our quality of life doesn't improve?

As Thailand is set to become the world's 23rd largest economy, it's worth considering what the majority of people in our younger generations will gain from this economic milestone.

Thailand will rise further within the top 30 by 2050, according to a report by the Hong Kong and Shanghai Bank (HSBC), "The World in 2050". Thailand's economy is expected to quadruple from US$187 billion in 2010 to $856 billion four decades from now.

This trajectory is desirable, of course. But the nation should consider what we might or might not gain from an increase in prosperity. The growth should be carefully based on well-planned strategies, to ensure that benefits respond to the needs of the people. The pattern of development should, for instance, be in line with sustainable lifestyles.

The anticipation of Thailand's growth is not surprising, taking into consideration the fast development of physical infrastructure that has been evident in many big cities. Bangkok has, over the last decade, become an international, cosmopolitan city, with more skyscrapers and bigger transportation projects. Other towns on Bangkok's perimeter have seen fast urbanisation. Many plantation areas have been turned into industrial sites. Huge shopping malls are sprouting up on virtually every corner. The city area has spread very fast.

Nonetheless, industrialisation and rapid urbanisation have come at the expense of traditional lifestyles and the quality of our environment. The recent massive flooding has shown that many new factories and housing projects have turned out to be impediments to the flow of natural waterways. The flow of water has been disrupted by this new infrastructure that comes with the development of the city. Carbon emissions from factories and vehicles are also affecting the quality of our air.

Thailand's growth is part of a regional phenomenon. The new ranking is based on an economy's current level of development and the factors that determine whether it has the potential to catch up with more developed nations. These fundamentals include current income per capita, the effectiveness of the rule of law, democracy development, education levels and demographic change. In completing the report, HSBC assumes that policy-makers will continue to make progress in addressing economic flaws and that they will avoid wars and remain open to global trade and capital.

Among the Asean countries, six of the 10 members are expected to see their economic rankings among the top 50 worldwide. Aside from Thailand and the Philippines, which should rise to 16th with an economy of $1.69 trillion in 2050 (from $112 billion in 2010), other rising stars include Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Singapore.

The region is obviously driven by the current growth in China and India. However, this growth has not been fairly distributed. Although Thailand's real GDP increased by 70 per cent from 1998 to 2009, the real average income per capita was up by only 47 per cent. Even worse, the minimum wage for workers in the agriculture sector and in urban areas dropped by 1.6 per cent.

The bad news is that these two groups of people form the majority of the Thai workforce. Big corporations have been growing, especially those involved with the businesses of the future, such as telecommunications.

Some political groups are exploiting the gap between the rich and poor to create class warfare to serve their political purposes, thus causing social divisiveness. Therefore, fair distribution of wealth should be addressed to enable the country to move ahead without leaving any group of people behind.

The growth should not be concentrated in Bangkok; it should be fairly distributed to all regions. The development pattern should also respond to the lifestyles and the needs of local communities. New industrial areas must have the least negative impact on the environment.

Most importantly, we should consider how economic growth will contribute to the development of human capital. Has economic development so far resulted in an increase in people's wisdom? Wealth should enable people to improve their capacity and knowledge and enable them to stand on their own two feet. If wealth just focuses on material elements such as buildings and factories, while the quality and capacity of our people is hardly improved, then we should ask ourselves if this is the growth that we want to see in the next four decades.

-- The Nation 2012-01-18

[blazes]

The World Bank warned, today, that many emerging economies (like Thailand's) could be hit hard by the looming crisis in Europe. (Watch for Hungary being the spark that sets the contagion going.)

I wonder how many of the seeming millions of condo developments around the country will go belly up as similar development did in Spain. Thousands of condos in Spain stand idle or uncompleted. Could this happen in LoS?

[DeepInTheForest]

Ah, the dilemma of our times: How to "develop", and what is "development", anyway?

This article nails some of the most difficult issues facing the people of the world. As capitalism has expanded-- its global reach now penetrates virtually every hamlet and remote valley-- its drawbacks have become increasingly clear. Along with the benefits of globalized trade-- better medicine, transport links, endless youtube videos of bizarre human behavior, and opportunities for some-- come crushing disenfranchisement and displacement for others.

The inevitable concentration of wealth (and its associated huge socioeconomic inequality), seems to be one result. Environmental destruction seems to be another.

This bit was telling: "Although Thailand's real GDP increased by 70 per cent from 1998 to 2009.... the minimum wage for workers in the agriculture sector and in urban areas dropped by 1.6 per cent."

Thais, like all of us, would be well-advised to seriously consider the path forward. We all have a lot of work to do, if our great great great grandchildren, who, face it, we rarely think of, are to have a livable world.

Edited January 18, 2012 by DeepInTheForest

[IsaanUSA]

Ah, the dilemma of our times: How to "develop", and what is "development", anyway?

This article nails some of the most difficult issues facing the people of the world. As capitalism has expanded-- its global reach now penetrates virtually every hamlet and remote valley-- its drawbacks have become increasingly clear. Along with the benefits of globalized trade-- better medicine, transport links, endless youtube videos of bizarre human behavior, and opportunities for some-- come crushing disenfranchisement and displacement for others.

The inevitable concentration of wealth (and its associated huge socioeconomic inequality), seems to be one result. Environmental destruction seems to be another.

This bit was telling: "Although Thailand's real GDP increased by 70 per cent from 1998 to 2009.... the minimum wage for workers in the agriculture sector and in urban areas dropped by 1.6 per cent."

Thais, like all of us, would be well-advised to seriously consider the path forward. We all have a lot of work to do, if our great great great grandchildren, who, face it, we rarely think of, are to have a livable world.

Exactly right.

400% in 40 years? 40 years ago stuff cost 4 times less. Gas was cheap. Food was cheap. Drugs were cheap.

Good luck Thailand